What If There Are No Analogs for 2024?

Maybe we’ll get 1893, 1929, 1968 and 2008 analogs mixed into a heady cocktail of surprises.

One of the favorite parlor games of financial analysts and seers is to make predictions about what will happen in the coming year based on past analogs such as the presidential election cycle, bond yield inversions, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and so on.

Part of the parlor game is to dig up obscure metrics and parse the percentage of the time that the analog worked in the past, a classic co...