3 Valuable Concepts to Help You Avoid Critical Mistakes

1. Second-Level Thinking

In the 1930s, the Australian government wanted to eliminate beetles that were destroying the country’s sugarcanes.

So, they released thousands of cane toads into their plantations, hoping they would kill the beetles.

But the toads were lousy at hunting beetles and excellent at reproducing.

So today, there are millions, if not billions, of cane toads in Australia1.

And they’re doing so much ecological damage that the government now classifies the toads themselves as pests.

Releasing them was a costly mistake that illustrates the difference between first-level and second-level thinking.

First-level thinking: These toads might kill the pests we want to eliminate.Second-level thinking: These toads might thrive and become pests themselves.

The takeaway?

When you’re trying to solve a complex problem, think deeply about the possible knock-on effects of each solution.

That way, you can avoid making bad situations even worse.

2. Multiplying by Zero

In the 1980s, Leonard “Len” Bias was considered a basketball prodigy.

He was tall, incredibly skillful, and amazingly athletic.

The experts all agreed that he would become one of the best players in the world.

There was just one problem.

Bias had developed a cocaine addiction.

And two days after he was picked in the NBA draft, he passed away from an overdose2.

The tragic story of Len Bias illustrates a simple rule we all learn in math class: Anything times zero is always zero.

100 x 10,000 x 1,000,000 x 0 = 0

That means all your talent and effort can be entirely eradicated by just one weak link in the chain.

If you, for instance, have tons of healthy habits, you’ll still have an increased risk of serious diseases if you sleep insufficiently.

So, try to tease out and strengthen the weakest part of your chains.

That way, you’ll ensure they don’t add up to zero.

3. Margin of Safety

Imagine that you’re an engineer building a bridge.

You’ve calculated that, on an average day, the bridge will need to support about 10,000 tons of traffic.

But your calculations could be slightly off, and the bridge might get heavier traffic on certain days.

So, to account for that, you build a bridge that comfortably supports 50,000 tons.

In engineering terms, the additional 40,000-ton capacity is a “margin of safety.”3

And that concept is helpful in many areas of life.

If you add extra buffer time to your schedule, you’ll be able to handle unforeseen events.If you use weights at the gym that you can comfortably lift, you’ll reduce the risk of injuries.If you save a percentage of each paycheck, you’ll have a buffer for unexpected expenses.

By applying sufficient safety margins, you can protect yourself against incorrect estimates, unforeseen events, and bad luck.

FootnotesCane ToadLen BiasMargin of Safety

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