Radical uncertainty about outcomes need not imply (similarly) radical uncertainty about strategies

Our uncertainty about how the future will unfold is vast, especially on long timescales. In light of this uncertainty, it may be natural to think that our uncertainty about strategies must be equally vast and intractable. My aim in this brief post is to argue that this is not the case.

Contents

Analogies to games, competitions, and projectsDisanalogy in scope?Three robust strategies for reducing sufferingThe golden middle way: Avoiding overconfidence and passivityAnalogies to g...