Unipolar, Bipolar & Multipolar World Orders | Implications for Humankind
Unipolar, Bipolar & Multipolar World Orders | Implications for Humankind
Vicar Sayeedi
March 15, 2022
In 1918, in the wake of World War I, three major ideologies dominated our world – Communism, Fascism and Liberal Democracy. We were living in a decidedly multipolar world and danger abounded in every direction. The Great War of 1914 – catalyzed by the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo at the hands of a Serbian assassin – had itself consumed more than 20 million lives. Sadly, the Great War was just one of numerous such violent episodes to erupt across the European continent over the preceding centuries.
Such multipolarity characterized by bloodshed and unspeakable violence had been our shared reality – our collective Realpolitik – for centuries and within a few decades following the Great War, the world was consumed, yet again. This time, perhaps six to eight times as many people lost their lives. Thus, the historical record has conclusively shown that multipolarity defined by many geopolitical centers of power leads to near constant conflict.
Fortunately, by 1991, only Liberal Democracy was left standing. Fascism collapsed in 1945 with the defeat of Nazi Germany and following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Communism had also imploded. Since that time, the world has taken on a decidedly unipolar world order and America has been the only superpower remaining to uphold this new reality. America enforced this order through an inclusive set of fifty-eight geopolitical alliances, numerous institutions and nearly eight hundred military installations in Asia, Europe and around the world. For most of the last thirty years, this unipolar world order has become the norm to which the world has, begrudgingly or willingly, acclimated. But most importantly, this unipolarity has resulted in an unprecedented peace – a Pax Americana – a period of unprecedented security relative to any previous time in history.
Unequivocally, unipolar worlds have demonstrably distinct advantages. In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Liberal Democracy, free market capitalism and globalization have produced unprecedented prosperity around the globe. We have witnessed a dramatic rise in the global middle class as well as the alleviation of poverty for hundreds of millions, most notably on display in China and India.
In the wake of this extraordinary Pax Americana [George W. Bush’s military adventurism and that of a few others not withstanding], we have also witnessed a dramatic decline in military expenditures around the world. In Northern and Western Europe, EU Member States have been investing just 2% of GDP in their defense during this Pax Americana. This is extraordinary when we consider that the level of violence and warfare in Europe over the past two thousand years required emperors and monarchs to spend as much as seventy percent of the revenue of the State on militarism.
With the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO] as a collective defense, these wealthy Developed Economies have been able to invest heavily in education, healthcare and social welfare as well as in basic research and development in medicine, science and technology. There has also been an extraordinary flourishing of the arts and of cultural institutions throughout these past thirty years. Such a reorientation of government expenditure towards the collective good has produced dramatic benefits for society – citizens of these polities are living healthier, more fulfilling, prosperous and relatively much safer lives than at any time in history. Most people today are more likely to die from exposure to sugar, salt and fat than from exposure to gunpowder or sharp objects. Further supporting this thesis, survey after survey confirm society’s satisfaction for life under liberal democracy and free market economies within this unipolar world order.
During this period of Pax Americana, people in the Developing World have also benefited from the investments made in North America and Western Europe on research and development in medicine, science and technology – globalization has enabled the unencumbered flow of goods across borders underpinned by the West’s financial resources to facilitate the process. Consider, for example, the extraordinary achievement of the West in developing many new safe and effective vaccines and therapies for the COVID-19 Coronavirus within one year of the pandemic outbreak. Also consider the technology used for testing and tracing or the best practices in Public Health to contain the spread of the virus. Each of these benefits have been made available to the Developing World through commitment and coordination between civil society and governmental and non-governmental organizations [NGO’s] such as the medicinal and vaccine alliances – COVAX, CEPI and GAVI – they created.
Today, scientists are working to identify the top twenty pathogens most likely to result in future pandemics and are using Artificial Intelligence to predict the three-dimensional folding pattern of these proteins. Once this previously insurmountable problem of understanding the folding pattern of a protein is understood, pharmaceutical physicians and scientists can more quickly identify chemical compounds that can best modify the behavior of these protein nanomachines or disable them entirely. It’s an extraordinary achievement that benefits all of humankind – we are now in a position to develop safe and effective therapeutics and vaccines very quickly should another epidemic or pandemic erupt, thus preventing death and economic suffering across all geographies. But we must realize that so many of the incredible medical, scientific and technological achievements and their applications to humankind’s problems during these past thirty years – Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology, Computing, Data Science and Genomics – were only possible due to the relative stability and security made possible in a unipolar world order guaranteed by America.
The rise of China in the past two decades has been a modern miracle. In 2000, China’s GDP was only one percent of global GDP but by 2020 the Chinese economy’s share of the global total had grown to 15%. This was only possible due to globalization underwritten by Pax Americana and the free flow of ideas, raw materials and the sharing of research across the globe between societies willing to immerse and invest in themselves and their societies for advancement and growth. But now, with Xi Jinping at the helm of the Chinese Communist Party, we seem to be trending towards a bipolar world. President Xi is fond of saying, “Chairman Mao made China stand up, Deng Xiaoping made China rich, and I am making China strong.” It is an effort to secure his third term as president despite Chinese Communist Party rules that require a Chinese president to step down after two terms.
Over the past five years, an Authoritarian President Xi has moved us towards a bipolar world in which a rising absolutist power is demanding a seat at the table. Xi is not willing to accept America’s singular authority over a unipolar world even though the very rise of China has been contextualized and enabled by American unipolarity. It’s an ideological challenge the world has not witnessed in thirty years, but it does have the benefit of pushing the West to sharpen its pencils and improve its own governance. In the United Kingdom and the United States, a great deal of dissatisfaction has been registered by the citizenry towards its democracy – large numbers now feel they have been left behind by Globalization, mismanagement of immigration policies and the rise of 4th Industrial Revolution technologies – and this has given rise to demagogues such as Donald Trump and to nostalgia fueled fantasies such as Brexit in the UK and the Gilets Jaunes [Yellow Vest] Movement in France.
Too many citizens in the West are losing faith in the promise of a liberal democracy and a free-market capitalist economy that has produced so much benefit across the globe for billions, perhaps because it has done so largely at their expense. Of late, the West seemed to be in the midst of a classic Thucydides Trap vis a vis the Peloponnesian War of circa 400 BCE when the established power of Sparta was confronted by the rising power of a democratic Athenian State. In eleven out of twelve such Thucydides Traps – or Great Power Rivalries – the confrontation results in war.
But now with the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Russia seems to have the explicit backing of China. On its own, Russia is a vastly diminished economic power – its economy is overwhelmingly dependent upon the extraction of oil and gas to which the Europeans are now beholden, at least in the short term. But in the long term they will find alternatives thus breaking their dependency.
Food insecurity is also a major challenge we must now confront – a unipolar world order guaranteed by America has had a dramatically positive effect on mitigating food insecurity across the world. But as Russian and Ukrainian wheat is weaponized, agricultural commodity prices have been soaring. This will undoubtedly result in both political instability and starvation in many parts of the Developing World.
Advancements in medicine, science and technology will not cease in the Developed World due to a reorientation towards bipolar or multipolar world orders but the probability that the political and therefore intellectual focus will favor military applications first and foremost will be high and the application of intellectual capital for social benefit will be secondary. This reality of bipolar or multipolar world orders will of course significantly limit the benefits that flow through to the Developing World as global supply chains wither and military budgets are buttressed. Enlarged military budgets such as that announced in Germany will leave less for societal benefit and this will lead to declining standards of living, increasing hunger and general poverty across Africa, Asia and other Developing Economies.
With oil and gas serving as the fuel driving Russia’s renewed neo-Czarist Imperial ambitions, we may see strengthened commitments, focus and investments towards solar, wind and thermonuclear fusion as alternative energy sources in the West thus reducing the ability of the major extraction economies of the Middle East, Russia and other Authoritarian states to cause geopolitical chaos and mischief in the long term. But in the short term, we must prepare ourselves for an increasingly dangerous and insecure world order in which everyone will retrench to protect themselves and their nations. The numerous benefits of Globalization may have to be shelved for the foreseeable future whilst hunger and poverty reassert themselves.
Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Bell Labs Alumnus, a Lecturer and a Consultant. He is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.
Vicar has lectured widely about Artificial Intelligence. He has recently lectured in New York at the National Hemophilia Foundation about AI & the Life Sciences. He has also lectured in London in the Royal Boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, in Sunnyvale in Silicon Valley, the National Library of Singapore as well as in Düsseldorf [with invitations extended to Amsterdam, Berlin, Cologne, Rome, Stockholm & Vienna] on AI and its implications for individuals and societies. Vicar has lectured at leading companies, as well. In April 2022, Vicar will be lecturing at Cambridge Library adjacent to Harvard Square.
Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. For geopolitical technologists, the symbiosis at this intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.
Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children.
You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7
The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:
Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?
Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents
Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism
Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!
Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens
Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance
Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI
Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!
Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius
Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple
Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society
Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy
Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens
Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment
Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair
Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game
Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?
Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West
Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]
Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship
Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology
Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution
Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind
Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team
Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?
Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos
Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State
Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?
Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA
Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?
Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy
Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration
Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?
Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution
Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?
Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?
Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?
Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?
Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?
Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
AI & the Life Sciences | Developments in Connectomics & Radiology
Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China
Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?
Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?
Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?
Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Key Enabler of Universal Basic Income?
Episode 49 - https://youtu.be/sy48Xqo-3qM
AI & The Future of Government, Industry, Markets &Trade
Episode 50 - https://youtu.be/JU1oGzb5TS0
AI & Surveillance | America’s New Strategy in the Middle East
Episode 51 - https://youtu.be/nOCQjUxLWJY
AI-Enabled Global Government | An Idea Whose Time Has Come?
Episode 52 - https://youtu.be/g1VJqiI3HyE
AI & Healthcare | What Will the Future Look Like? Will it be More Equitable?
Episode 53 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Surveillance | The Ethical Dilemma of Facial Recognition Software
Episode 54 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Regulation | Europe is Leading the Way
Episode 55 - https://youtu.be/l-gcYTZMsm8
AI & Consciousness | Will Machines Soon be Sentient?
Episode 56 - https://youtu.be/-8BaouCn9cs
AI & Regulation | Europe Announces New Rules
Episode 57 - https://youtu.be/243zm7aHImQ
AI & Human Emotion Recognition | Is it Inherently Flawed?
Episode 58 - https://youtu.be/rdXllGj8rbo
AI & Autonomous Vehicles | Where are We Now?
Episode 59 - https://youtu.be/EMbqpN5mbqw
AI & the 4 Little Trees | More on Emotion Recognition
Episode 60 - https://youtu.be/K5wtkj-VTrk
AI & the Colonial Pipeline Attack | Cyber Threats are Growing Rapidly
Episode 61 - https://youtu.be/03KysO3VJgI
AI & the Coronavirus | A Postmortem
Episode 62 - https://youtu.be/7wmSIWgbuQI
AI on the Battlefield | The Conflict in Gaza
Episode 63 - https://youtu.be/a_1AmLJD3lo
AI and Xenophobia | Will We Finally Break the Cycle?
Episode 64 - https://youtu.be/9s-Go1TYK9c
AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?
Episode 65 - https://youtu.be/1nKbTMzfpqM
Artificial Intelligence | Humankind’s Final and Greatest Invention
Episode 66 - https://youtu.be/cplR62KTa88
America & the 4th Industrial Revolution | Where do We Go from Here?
Episode 67 - https://youtu.be/RMrqreI-PRw
Artificial Intelligence | [Digital] Life After Death
Episode 68 - https://youtu.be/KzR8NkVdT0Q
Artificial Intelligence | The Fear Factor
Episode 69 - https://youtu.be/BI0HqACc4Ek
Artificial Intelligence | The Trust Factor
Episode 70 - https://youtu.be/nKhqVtQC_NI
Artificial Intelligence | Implications for the Future of Democracy
Episode 71 - https://youtu.be/GKD5hXmnpTU
Artificial Intelligence | Deep Fakes & Pornography
Episode 72 - https://youtu.be/KJdoBm5Kmw8
Artificial Intelligence | Working in the 21st Century
Episode 73 - https://youtu.be/lLY6gF_eeas
AI & Disinformation | Implications for Democracy & Geopolitics
Episode 74 - https://youtu.be/URsauWURj5A
AI, Climate Change & Pandemics | A Case for Global Governance?
Episode 75 - https://youtu.be/cu7xOHpNiO4
Artificial Intelligence | New Year’s Resolutions & Societal Reformation
Episode 76 - https://youtu.be/1-orEsKg5fM
Artificial Intelligence | Meritocracy and the Gathering Storm
Episode 77 - https://youtu.be/jYzyrxhxCJk
AI, Authoritarianism & Democracy | What Does the Future Hold?
Episode 78 – https://youtu.be/G5dlaB8TZJQ
AI & Speciation | Symbiosis and the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 79 – https://youtu.be/8pq2ZAxRdcY
AI and Disinformation | Echo Chambers in an Age of Division
Episode 80 – https://youtu.be/bewLnveVpDI
AI & Human Conflict | Objectivism, Tribalism & the Dunning-Kruger Effect
Episode 81 – https://youtu.be/Z5ZvMYuNhLQ
AI, Climate Change & Migration | Sowing the Seeds of Intraplanetary Discord
Episode 82 – https://youtu.be/mP-r_0pS3P8
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Where are We Now and What Does the Future Hold?
Episode 83 – https://youtu.be/vYSW-pceOQE
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Is Protein Folding Our Most Important Achievement?
Episode 84 – https://youtu.be/IBgF_oyCvpE
Artificial Intelligence & 21st Century Military Doctrine | Tora! Tora! Tora!
Episode 85 – https://youtu.be/sxGeIZSlYYo
Artificial Intelligence & Healthcare | A Revolution in the Making
Episode 86 – https://youtu.be/gARgH5rlCG8
AI & Thermonuclear Fusion | The Ultimate Solution for Climate Change
Episode 87 – https://youtu.be/baWRuYBKgu4
Putin’s Russia | A State of Humiliation
Episode 88 – https://youtu.be/6TP5AFtg-6g
AI & Genomics | Accelerating Gene Therapies
Episode 89 – https://youtu.be/_vgLJEoQFY4
Unipolar, Bipolar & Multipolar Worlds | Implications for Humankind
Vicar Sayeedi
March 15, 2022
In 1918, in the wake of World War I, three major ideologies dominated our world – Communism, Fascism and Liberal Democracy. We were living in a decidedly multipolar world and danger abounded in every direction. The Great War of 1914 – catalyzed by the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo at the hands of a Serbian assassin – had itself consumed more than 20 million lives. Sadly, the Great War was just one of numerous such violent episodes to erupt across the European continent over the preceding centuries.
Such multipolarity characterized by bloodshed and unspeakable violence had been our shared reality – our collective Realpolitik – for centuries and within a few decades following the Great War, the world was consumed, yet again. This time, perhaps six to eight times as many people lost their lives. Thus, the historical record has conclusively shown that multipolarity defined by many geopolitical centers of power leads to near constant conflict.
Fortunately, by 1991, only Liberal Democracy was left standing. Fascism collapsed in 1945 with the defeat of Nazi Germany and following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Communism had also imploded. Since that time, the world has taken on a decidedly unipolar world order and America has been the only superpower remaining to uphold this new reality. America enforced this order through an inclusive set of fifty-eight geopolitical alliances, numerous institutions and nearly eight hundred military installations in Asia, Europe and around the world. For most of the last thirty years, this unipolar world order has become the norm to which the world has, begrudgingly or willingly, acclimated. But most importantly, this unipolarity has resulted in an unprecedented peace – a Pax Americana – a period of unprecedented security relative to any previous time in history.
Unequivocally, unipolar worlds have demonstrably distinct advantages. In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Liberal Democracy, free market capitalism and globalization have produced unprecedented prosperity around the globe. We have witnessed a dramatic rise in the global middle class as well as the alleviation of poverty for hundreds of millions, most notably on display in China and India.
In the wake of this extraordinary Pax Americana [George W. Bush’s military adventurism and that of a few others not withstanding], we have also witnessed a dramatic decline in military expenditures around the world. In Northern and Western Europe, EU Member States have been investing just 2% of GDP in their defense during this Pax Americana. This is extraordinary when we consider that the level of violence and warfare in Europe over the past two thousand years required emperors and monarchs to spend as much as seventy percent of the revenue of the State on militarism.
With the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO] as a collective defense, these wealthy Developed Economies have been able to invest heavily in education, healthcare and social welfare as well as in basic research and development in medicine, science and technology. There has also been an extraordinary flourishing of the arts and of cultural institutions throughout these past thirty years. Such a reorientation of government expenditure towards the collective good has produced dramatic benefits for society – citizens of these polities are living healthier, more fulfilling, prosperous and relatively much safer lives than at any time in history. Most people today are more likely to die from exposure to sugar, salt and fat than from exposure to gunpowder or sharp objects. Further supporting this thesis, survey after survey confirm society’s satisfaction for life under liberal democracy and free market economies within this unipolar world order.
During this period of Pax Americana, people in the Developing World have also benefited from the investments made in North America and Western Europe on research and development in medicine, science and technology – globalization has enabled the unencumbered flow of goods across borders underpinned by the West’s financial resources to facilitate the process. Consider, for example, the extraordinary achievement of the West in developing many new safe and effective vaccines and therapies for the COVID-19 Coronavirus within one year of the pandemic outbreak. Also consider the technology used for testing and tracing or the best practices in Public Health to contain the spread of the virus. Each of these benefits have been made available to the Developing World through commitment and coordination between civil society and governmental and non-governmental organizations [NGO’s] such as the medicinal and vaccine alliances – COVAX, CEPI and GAVI – they created.
Today, scientists are working to identify the top twenty pathogens most likely to result in future pandemics and are using Artificial Intelligence to predict the three-dimensional folding pattern of these proteins. Once this previously insurmountable problem of understanding the folding pattern of a protein is understood, pharmaceutical physicians and scientists can more quickly identify chemical compounds that can best modify the behavior of these protein nanomachines or disable them entirely. It’s an extraordinary achievement that benefits all of humankind – we are now in a position to develop safe and effective therapeutics and vaccines very quickly should another epidemic or pandemic erupt, thus preventing death and economic suffering across all geographies. But we must realize that so many of the incredible medical, scientific and technological achievements and their applications to humankind’s problems during these past thirty years – Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology, Computing, Data Science and Genomics – were only possible due to the relative stability and security made possible in a unipolar world order guaranteed by America.
The rise of China in the past two decades has been a modern miracle. In 2000, China’s GDP was only one percent of global GDP but by 2020 the Chinese economy’s share of the global total had grown to 15%. This was only possible due to globalization underwritten by Pax Americana and the free flow of ideas, raw materials and the sharing of research across the globe between societies willing to immerse and invest in themselves and their societies for advancement and growth. But now, with Xi Jinping at the helm of the Chinese Communist Party, we seem to be trending towards a bipolar world. President Xi is fond of saying, “Chairman Mao made China stand up, Deng Xiaoping made China rich, and I am making China strong.” It is an effort to secure his third term as president despite Chinese Communist Party rules that require a Chinese president to step down after two terms.
Over the past five years, an Authoritarian President Xi has moved us towards a bipolar world in which a rising absolutist power is demanding a seat at the table. Xi is not willing to accept America’s singular authority over a unipolar world even though the very rise of China has been contextualized and enabled by American unipolarity. It’s an ideological challenge the world has not witnessed in thirty years, but it does have the benefit of pushing the West to sharpen its pencils and improve its own governance. In the United Kingdom and the United States, a great deal of dissatisfaction has been registered by the citizenry towards its democracy – large numbers now feel they have been left behind by Globalization, mismanagement of immigration policies and the rise of 4th Industrial Revolution technologies – and this has given rise to demagogues such as Donald Trump and to nostalgia fueled fantasies such as Brexit in the UK and the Gilets Jaunes [Yellow Vest] Movement in France.
Too many citizens in the West are losing faith in the promise of a liberal democracy and a free-market capitalist economy that has produced so much benefit across the globe for billions, perhaps because it has done so largely at their expense. Of late, the West seemed to be in the midst of a classic Thucydides Trap vis a vis the Peloponnesian War of circa 400 BCE when the established power of Sparta was confronted by the rising power of a democratic Athenian State. In eleven out of twelve such Thucydides Traps – or Great Power Rivalries – the confrontation results in war.
But now with the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Russia seems to have the explicit backing of China. On its own, Russia is a vastly diminished economic power – its economy is overwhelmingly dependent upon the extraction of oil and gas to which the Europeans are now beholden, at least in the short term. But in the long term they will find alternatives thus breaking their dependency.
Food insecurity is also a major challenge we must now confront – a unipolar world order guaranteed by America has had a dramatically positive effect on mitigating food insecurity across the world. But as Russian and Ukrainian wheat is weaponized, agricultural commodity prices have been soaring. This will undoubtedly result in both political instability and starvation in many parts of the Developing World.
Advancements in medicine, science and technology will not cease in the Developed World due to a reorientation towards bipolar or multipolar world orders but the probability that the political and therefore intellectual focus will favor military applications first and foremost will be high and the application of intellectual capital for social benefit will be secondary. This reality of bipolar or multipolar world orders will of course significantly limit the benefits that flow through to the Developing World as global supply chains wither and military budgets are buttressed. Enlarged military budgets such as that announced in Germany will leave less for societal benefit and this will lead to declining standards of living, increasing hunger and general poverty across Africa, Asia and other Developing Economies.
With oil and gas serving as the fuel driving Russia’s renewed neo-Czarist Imperial ambitions, we may see strengthened commitments, focus and investments towards solar, wind and thermonuclear fusion as alternative energy sources in the West thus reducing the ability of the major extraction economies of the Middle East, Russia and other Authoritarian states to cause geopolitical chaos and mischief in the long term. But in the short term, we must prepare ourselves for an increasingly dangerous and insecure world order in which everyone will retrench to protect themselves and their nations. The numerous benefits of Globalization may have to be shelved for the foreseeable future whilst hunger and poverty reassert themselves.
Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Bell Labs Alumnus, a Lecturer and a Consultant. He is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.
Vicar has lectured widely about Artificial Intelligence. He has recently lectured in New York at the National Hemophilia Foundation about AI & the Life Sciences. He has also lectured in London in the Royal Boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, in Sunnyvale in Silicon Valley, the National Library of Singapore as well as in Düsseldorf [with invitations extended to Amsterdam, Berlin, Cologne, Rome, Stockholm & Vienna] on AI and its implications for individuals and societies. Vicar has lectured at leading companies, as well. In April 2022, Vicar will be lecturing at Cambridge Library adjacent to Harvard Square.
Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. For geopolitical technologists, the symbiosis at this intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.
Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children.
You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7
The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:
Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?
Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents
Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism
Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!
Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens
Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance
Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI
Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!
Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius
Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple
Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society
Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy
Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens
Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment
Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair
Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game
Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?
Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West
Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]
Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship
Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology
Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution
Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind
Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team
Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?
Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos
Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State
Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?
Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA
Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?
Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy
Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration
Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?
Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution
Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?
Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?
Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?
Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?
Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?
Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
AI & the Life Sciences | Developments in Connectomics & Radiology
Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China
Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?
Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?
Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?
Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Key Enabler of Universal Basic Income?
Episode 49 - https://youtu.be/sy48Xqo-3qM
AI & The Future of Government, Industry, Markets &Trade
Episode 50 - https://youtu.be/JU1oGzb5TS0
AI & Surveillance | America’s New Strategy in the Middle East
Episode 51 - https://youtu.be/nOCQjUxLWJY
AI-Enabled Global Government | An Idea Whose Time Has Come?
Episode 52 - https://youtu.be/g1VJqiI3HyE
AI & Healthcare | What Will the Future Look Like? Will it be More Equitable?
Episode 53 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Surveillance | The Ethical Dilemma of Facial Recognition Software
Episode 54 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Regulation | Europe is Leading the Way
Episode 55 - https://youtu.be/l-gcYTZMsm8
AI & Consciousness | Will Machines Soon be Sentient?
Episode 56 - https://youtu.be/-8BaouCn9cs
AI & Regulation | Europe Announces New Rules
Episode 57 - https://youtu.be/243zm7aHImQ
AI & Human Emotion Recognition | Is it Inherently Flawed?
Episode 58 - https://youtu.be/rdXllGj8rbo
AI & Autonomous Vehicles | Where are We Now?
Episode 59 - https://youtu.be/EMbqpN5mbqw
AI & the 4 Little Trees | More on Emotion Recognition
Episode 60 - https://youtu.be/K5wtkj-VTrk
AI & the Colonial Pipeline Attack | Cyber Threats are Growing Rapidly
Episode 61 - https://youtu.be/03KysO3VJgI
AI & the Coronavirus | A Postmortem
Episode 62 - https://youtu.be/7wmSIWgbuQI
AI on the Battlefield | The Conflict in Gaza
Episode 63 - https://youtu.be/a_1AmLJD3lo
AI and Xenophobia | Will We Finally Break the Cycle?
Episode 64 - https://youtu.be/9s-Go1TYK9c
AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?
Episode 65 - https://youtu.be/1nKbTMzfpqM
Artificial Intelligence | Humankind’s Final and Greatest Invention
Episode 66 - https://youtu.be/cplR62KTa88
America & the 4th Industrial Revolution | Where do We Go from Here?
Episode 67 - https://youtu.be/RMrqreI-PRw
Artificial Intelligence | [Digital] Life After Death
Episode 68 - https://youtu.be/KzR8NkVdT0Q
Artificial Intelligence | The Fear Factor
Episode 69 - https://youtu.be/BI0HqACc4Ek
Artificial Intelligence | The Trust Factor
Episode 70 - https://youtu.be/nKhqVtQC_NI
Artificial Intelligence | Implications for the Future of Democracy
Episode 71 - https://youtu.be/GKD5hXmnpTU
Artificial Intelligence | Deep Fakes & Pornography
Episode 72 - https://youtu.be/KJdoBm5Kmw8
Artificial Intelligence | Working in the 21st Century
Episode 73 - https://youtu.be/lLY6gF_eeas
AI & Disinformation | Implications for Democracy & Geopolitics
Episode 74 - https://youtu.be/URsauWURj5A
AI, Climate Change & Pandemics | A Case for Global Governance?
Episode 75 - https://youtu.be/cu7xOHpNiO4
Artificial Intelligence | New Year’s Resolutions & Societal Reformation
Episode 76 - https://youtu.be/1-orEsKg5fM
Artificial Intelligence | Meritocracy and the Gathering Storm
Episode 77 - https://youtu.be/jYzyrxhxCJk
AI, Authoritarianism & Democracy | What Does the Future Hold?
Episode 78 – https://youtu.be/G5dlaB8TZJQ
AI & Speciation | Symbiosis and the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 79 – https://youtu.be/8pq2ZAxRdcY
AI and Disinformation | Echo Chambers in an Age of Division
Episode 80 – https://youtu.be/bewLnveVpDI
AI & Human Conflict | Objectivism, Tribalism & the Dunning-Kruger Effect
Episode 81 – https://youtu.be/Z5ZvMYuNhLQ
AI, Climate Change & Migration | Sowing the Seeds of Intraplanetary Discord
Episode 82 – https://youtu.be/mP-r_0pS3P8
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Where are We Now and What Does the Future Hold?
Episode 83 – https://youtu.be/vYSW-pceOQE
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Is Protein Folding Our Most Important Achievement?
Episode 84 – https://youtu.be/IBgF_oyCvpE
Artificial Intelligence & 21st Century Military Doctrine | Tora! Tora! Tora!
Episode 85 – https://youtu.be/sxGeIZSlYYo
Artificial Intelligence & Healthcare | A Revolution in the Making
Episode 86 – https://youtu.be/gARgH5rlCG8
AI & Thermonuclear Fusion | The Ultimate Solution for Climate Change
Episode 87 – https://youtu.be/baWRuYBKgu4
Putin’s Russia | A State of Humiliation
Episode 88 – https://youtu.be/6TP5AFtg-6g
AI & Genomics | Accelerating Gene Therapies
Episode 89 – https://youtu.be/_vgLJEoQFY4
Unipolar, Bipolar & Multipolar Worlds | Implications for Humankind
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