Is There Something Europe And America Can Learn From China?

The figure below shows the total number of deaths per month in 2020 for some countries in Western Europe, Asia and North America:

In the same vein, the one below shows the number of cases per month in 2020 for the same countries:

America is deliberately left out because it will skew the graph and flatter the European nation.

The remarkable story is China. The worst month for China in 2020 was February, with 2,624 deaths and 69,554 cases. Cases in China picked up in December but the numbers are still astonishing low: 3061 cases and 39 deaths.

For Western Europe, there is a common thread. Whereas deaths peaked around the middle of the year, it has gathered momentum again in the last quarter of 2020. Unfortunately, cases have outstripped the peak of the middle of the year. For example, in the UK, cases in December 2020 was over 860,000 compared to just under 140,000, a staggering six times more than what was recorded in the first wave. What is more worrying is that in the first week of January 2021, cases in the UK is over 470,000!

Germany, widely praised in the first wave, recorded 690,608 cases in December 2020, and deaths of 17,907, more than total deaths in the first wave.

Japan, South Korea and China also recorded the biggest number of cases in December 2020 since the first wave. There is no doubt CoronaVirus is on the increase across the world.

There are those who like to believe that numbers that China declares is much lower than what is happening there. Is there any evidence for this? I have not see any personally. Just think about the population of China. If just 0.12% of the population died from COVID19 as is the case in the UK, that will be close to 1.7 million people. If 4% of people in China contracted COVID19 in one year, you are looking at over 62 million people. Will China be able to hide this level of incidence without the rest of the world knowing? Won’t their health care system be overwhelmed? Didn’t we find out when China created a camp for the Uighurs Muslims?

It is more likely that China has been able to control CoronaVirus better than Europe and America because in the beginning, it understood how important it was to limit its spread.

Here is a good article from “The Lancet”, which highlights the reasons why China was so successful: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30800-8/fulltext. The article highlighted the following points:

Previous experience with SARS-CoV, which had a higher mortality rateAgeing parents are not concentrated in care homes as in western countries, only 3% does; the rest live with their childrenThe speed of response in China compared to western countriesChina tried to contain it within Wuhan76 days of strict lockdown, the like of which cannot be imagined in the western countriesPublic transport was suspended14,000 health checkpointsSchool reopening delayedDozens of cities implemented similar measuresOnly one member can leave the house every couple of days to collect suppliesIn Wuhan, China tested 9 million people within weeks. It ramped up production of personal protective equipmentCitizens adopted mask wearing. Drones deployed for mass information campaign16 “Fangcang” hospitals in Wuhan alone, with capacity to host thousands of people , a centre where those showing mild to moderate symptoms had to isolate. This helped to reduce community spread.The people of China did not hold on to conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus.

Here is another article with a slightly different take on the success of China: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-crushed-coronavirus-pandemic

China adopted a policy of “infected until proven healthy”. It is interesting that the current public information campaign in the UK is now adopting a similar message. Why did it take so long?China also vacillated initially, therefore, the virus was seeded around the world. However, once it realized the threat to its people, it kicked into gear. China campaign was a grass root one. Nigeria was judged to have handed Ebola epidemic well years ago, using a grass root campaign. Lock down was managed by the lowest rung of the bureaucracy: on a street by street basis. In the UK, compliance to the lockdown was based on the assumption that the Brits are reasonable and will use sound judgment. Everybody flying has to isolate to become a “normal person” (quote from the article).If you flew into Shanghai, you are assigned three people: a doctor, a policeman and neighborhood committee member. Quarantine was mandatory and enforced by technology and humans. A very high testing capacity. China claimed to be able to test 3.8 million people per day. Ability to produce masks internally meant China was able to scale up her capacity very quickly.

Those of us in the western world need to accept that China’s methods enabled it to keep COVID19 from establishing a strong hold in the community.

It is clear that liberal democracies cannot follow China’s play book because they don’t have the same tool set. Moreover, the expectations of the people are very different. Nevertheless, there are lessons to learn from China. While the western world might have been at a disadvantage in fighting the pandemic, there is no doubt that a different attitude may have saved thousands of lives. For example, couldn’t we have done better in the following area:

China appeared to understand early that it should focus on health. It has reaped enormous benefits in economic prosperity. When China was locking everything down, the UK was busy seeding the virus by allowing thousands of people to gather at sports events and horse racing shows. China’s capacity to produce personal protection equipment at home became a big asset. Countries in Europe lacked this capacity and faced shortage at a critical time. No nation can produce everything but we need to give some thoughts to how we will cope with supply when there is a worldwide shortage. We can support some capacity to produce at a loss so that in times of crisis we have something to fall back on. Why were we so resistant to masks in Europe and America? Apparently in Japan, a country that has handled COVID19 better than in the UK, children in primary school wear masks all day long.We need to juggle our personal liberties and responsibilities to others better. What was all that protests against the lockdown about? When does my quest for personal liberty becomes a selfish act? Don’t we also need to sort out our pride in the western world? Shouldn’t we have looked at China and try to learn as much as we could?The distrust for scientific evidence is growing and should be of concern. Inability to accept expert opinion and go for “gut feeling” played a big part in the Brexit vote. The outcome is a decision that will cost the UK 4% of GDP (informed Brexiteers don’t context this). What is the benefit? red tapes for our businesses, obstacles in the way of our young people wanting to work abroad. And of course, sovereignty!

If China is hiding the impact of Coronavirus, we would have found evidence by now. Nobody knows the future, but so far, China appears to have successfully prevented this virus from establishing a foothold in the community. When the next pandemic come, it may even be deadlier. Therefore, it is very important that the western world learn and learn very quickly.