The Race to 270
The Election is Tuesday. Votes have been pouring in all over the country, but right now we can only guess if those are votes for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump. The teams have been playing, but we won’t see the score until Tuesday night, and that score won’t even be the final totals.
This is a good time for a quick refresher on the Electoral College. The United States does not elect Presidential candidates directly. We vote for slates of electors who are pledged to one candidate or another. The number of electors each state gets is equal to their number of representatives in the House plus their two senators. California has 55 electors, the most of any state. States with the smallest populations, Wyoming, South Dakota, plus the District of Columbia, get 3 each.
Most states have a “winner take all” rule. That means, the winning candidate gets all the electors, no matter if the victory was large or small. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which give electors to the overall winner, plus an elector for each congressional district won. In a tight race, those district electors could be decisive.
There are 538 electors in all. It takes 270 to win.
California, the biggest prize on election night, is expected to go to Biden. So is New York with its 29 electors, and Illinois with its 20. Texas, second to California with 38 electors, has been reliably Republican for years. Other big prizes are Florida with 29 electors and Pennsylvania with 20.
Trump’s path to an electoral college victory is extremely challenging. He’s behind in the polls in states like Florida and Pennsylvania that he simply must win. Biden has challenged Trump in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas as well. If Biden wins any of these five states, he will win the election.
Florida’s elections are often very close. In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida by just over 500 votes. If the race is close again this year, we may not know Floriday’s results Tuesday night, or even Wednesday night.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has been collecting early votes for two weeks now, but they won’t start counting those votes until Tuesday morning. We’re not likely to know how that race is going until Wednesday, either.
I’m intrigued that Texas’ early voting has already exceeded their totals from 2016. Texas is changing, but I’m not getting my hopes up that Biden will flip the Lone Star State this year.
Bottom line: If you haven’t voted yet, get on it, especially if you live in a swing state, which, according to CNN, are Arizona, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
Don’t rely on the USPS to get your ballot back in time. If your ballot arrives after Election Day, the Republicans will do everything in their power to have it not count. Take it to an official drop box or to your polling place on election day.
By the end of the week, we should have a winner. Next weekend, I’ll give some final thoughts about where we go from here.
Thanks for reading! Please remember to like, comment and follow!
This is a good time for a quick refresher on the Electoral College. The United States does not elect Presidential candidates directly. We vote for slates of electors who are pledged to one candidate or another. The number of electors each state gets is equal to their number of representatives in the House plus their two senators. California has 55 electors, the most of any state. States with the smallest populations, Wyoming, South Dakota, plus the District of Columbia, get 3 each.
Most states have a “winner take all” rule. That means, the winning candidate gets all the electors, no matter if the victory was large or small. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, which give electors to the overall winner, plus an elector for each congressional district won. In a tight race, those district electors could be decisive.
There are 538 electors in all. It takes 270 to win.
California, the biggest prize on election night, is expected to go to Biden. So is New York with its 29 electors, and Illinois with its 20. Texas, second to California with 38 electors, has been reliably Republican for years. Other big prizes are Florida with 29 electors and Pennsylvania with 20.
Trump’s path to an electoral college victory is extremely challenging. He’s behind in the polls in states like Florida and Pennsylvania that he simply must win. Biden has challenged Trump in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas as well. If Biden wins any of these five states, he will win the election.
Florida’s elections are often very close. In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida by just over 500 votes. If the race is close again this year, we may not know Floriday’s results Tuesday night, or even Wednesday night.
Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has been collecting early votes for two weeks now, but they won’t start counting those votes until Tuesday morning. We’re not likely to know how that race is going until Wednesday, either.
I’m intrigued that Texas’ early voting has already exceeded their totals from 2016. Texas is changing, but I’m not getting my hopes up that Biden will flip the Lone Star State this year.
Bottom line: If you haven’t voted yet, get on it, especially if you live in a swing state, which, according to CNN, are Arizona, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
Don’t rely on the USPS to get your ballot back in time. If your ballot arrives after Election Day, the Republicans will do everything in their power to have it not count. Take it to an official drop box or to your polling place on election day.
By the end of the week, we should have a winner. Next weekend, I’ll give some final thoughts about where we go from here.
Thanks for reading! Please remember to like, comment and follow!
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