Four Strategy Gurus to Avoid

About a year ago I miscalculated — badly — on the Microsoft Kinect. In terms of speed of adoption, only Apple's iPad has rivaled the Kinect. Aside from some tough comments on my blog, the long-term repercussions were low.

That's pretty much what happens to a pundit who gets it wrong — nothing.

Life is tougher for the strategist. A prescient call provides career rocket fuel, while the wrong one can be career limiting. So how to sift through the noise to evaluate the predictions that warrant the most careful attention? Watch out for the following four types of pundits.

The non-user. This pundit makes bold predictions about a product or service he's never used. Remember, a wide gulf separates a corporate press release or a carefully scripted demo and in-the-field reality. I ran into this trap when I started getting excited about Research in Motion's Playbook before the product had even been officially launched. The product's performance didn't live up to early press releases and has struggled in the market.

The projector. This pundit makes predictions about markets that she doesn't participate in. For example, in 2008 a company called Peek launched a seemingly game-changing device that made it simple for people to access their email on the go. Many tech savvy reviewers said the product would take off because its simplicity would appeal to everyday users. The reviews convinced me to buy a Peek for my wife, but watching her use the device for five minutes led me to believe that as simple as the device seemed, it just didn't fit into my wife's life. That Christmas present quickly turned into a paperweight.

Read the rest at Scott's Harvard Business Review blog.