On Assessing Arguments

Let’s say you believe X is true. You know that many smart, well-educated people believe X — including you! — but also that many smart, well-educated people disbelieve X.

If you come across what strikes you as an obvious, airtight argument for the truth of X, but don’t routinely engage with smart, well-educated people who disbelieve X, then stop a moment and reassess how certain you should be about the obviousness and airtightness of that argument.

Chances are those smart, well-educated people who disagree with you have heard the argument before and have a reasonable — though not necessarily correct! — response. Smart people tend not to hold considered beliefs for conspicuously dumb reasons.

On Assessing Arguments was originally published in Aaron Ross Powell’s Homepage on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.