The Palin Factor

September 3rd is fast approaching and a lot of people are suddenly buzzing that she will declare her candidacy for the Presidency at that time. Karl Rove is convinced. John Fund of the Wall Street Journal thinks she will not run.

I am in the "will believe it when I see it" camp and still don't think she will run. One factor that keeps me there is her Fox News contract. For multiple weeks prior to Mike Huckabee declaring he would not run, leaks starting coming out of Fox News that the pressure was on for him to make up his mind.

We are not hearing the same about Palin and that suggests to me she will not run.

But if I'm wrong and she does run, what of it? What will her impact be.

For a variety of reasons, I think Mitt Romney will be doing the Snoopy dance, which I think is why Karl Rove is so giddy that she is getting in (I'm definitely not the first to think this). Palin will shake up the race, but there are signs if she gets in she is going to have to lay out a careful strategy and not just rely on the force of her own personality and message.

First off is polling out of Iowa that Neil Stevens highlighted suggesting Iowa Republicans prefer that she not get in.

I think some of this is genuine, but I also think some of this is people who just gave up on her getting in.

More troubling for Palin is the Gallup polling that shows she has roughly 95% name recognition and only 12% support for the Presidency.

If Palin gets in, that number will change dramatically. We can kind of see this with Rick Perry. He polled rather low until he announced and then his support level increased. People don't think Palin will run right now and if she got in, suddenly she would be much more popular.

But could she win? That is the million dollar question. Most polling suggests she cannot win the general election. Most polling also suggested Ronald Reagan could not win the general election in 1980. A fundamental difference was that Palin has 95% name recognition right now and Reagan was far from that recognition in 1980, even though he'd run in the 1976 primary against Ford.

If Palin gets in, she is going to have to work very, very hard to rehabilitate her image among not just independent voters, but also — and I think this is key — conservative Republican voters who long ago gave up on the dream of a Palin 2012 candidacy and moved on. Many of those voters have signed on to other campaigns.

While Palin fans may assure themselves that those former Palin supporters would come home quickly, I don't yet see any evidence for that and think, at least initially, Palin would drag down everyone except MItt Romney.

Don't county Sarah Palin out. She keeps surprising everyone. But don't count her the winner either.

Heck, right now, we're all going to have wait and see whether or not she even runs come September 3rd. I'll believe it when I see it.