First Thoughts on the Referendum Result

I shall be writing in more detail and depth about this on Sunday in my Mail on Sunday column, but I feel I ought to make an immediate comment on the referendum result.

I have been saying for some weeks that ���Leave��� would win . I freely admit that I was wrong at the beginning of the campaign to predict that the electorate would shy away from such a vote. What changed my mind? The creditable efforts of the BBC to be impartial, which I absolutely did not expect; the number of newspapers which came off the fence in favour of independence, as they had never done before; and perhaps above all the clumsiness and folly of the ���Remain��� campaign, which turned out to have nothing in its locker, overplayed a weak hand and in the end became a joke. Stand by now for a plague of frogs.

I also came to realise, mainly through some lucky conversations, that the working-class Labour vote had swung heavily towards ���Leave���. I thought a combination of this group with the pre-existing anti-EU vote would create a majority. Which is why on June 6th I began to speculate on the constitutional crisis which I thought would follow a majority for ���Leave���.

Mass immigration was obviously a huge influence on the vote. ���Sovereignty��� was always an abstract, but the visible loss of control of our national borders revealed to millions that it is in fact a tangible thing which affects their lives. Even so,  do not underestimate the role played by  generalised discontent about everything from absurdly high housing costs, unchecked crime and disorder, the transformation of education into a privilege for the rich and influential, diminishing wages, the impossibility of maintaining standards of living without getting into debt,  overloaded health services and miserable opportunities for the young.

Regular readers will know that I don���t like referenda. I didn���t vote in this one, though I did not advise anyone else to follow my example, or expect anyone to do so. This was not and is not my chosen route out of the EU. I am still not sure it will get us out.

The referendum achieved, by a dangerous short cut, something I have been hoping for and arguing for and seeking for many years ��� an alliance between the social conservatives trapped and ignored in a liberal Tory Party and the social conservatives trapped in a liberal Labour Party. I had long believed (since the isolated example of a November 2004 referendum on regional government in the North-East) such a combination would throw the ghastly forces of Blairism into the sea.

The problem is that this potent temporary alliance has dissolved now that the referendum is over.  What actual body or power survives to enforce its outcome, to drive it through a hostile Parliament, civil service and judiciary,  and overcome the redoubled propaganda of a pro-EU BBC now released from its temporary straitjacket of impartiality? WE're already being told that the winners must 'respect' the 48% who lost the vote called by their own side to crush anti-EU movement once and for all. Well, no doubt we must be nice to them, and not gloat too much, but it is for them to respect the majority they did not expect.

 

They would certainly have expected the 'Leave' side to respect a 'Remain' victory, had there been one.

 

But the undying resentment and conviction of the Remainers shows us why the referendum short cut is so dangerous. It has raised he expectations. Will it now be able to fulfil them?

We are now back to party politics. The conditions which allowed Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, Frank Field and similar admirable Labour figures to share platforms with Michael Gove and Alexander ���Boris��� Johnson ��� and which also allowed Tory and Labour Blairites to collaborate openly with each other ��� have abruptly ended. In fact, none of the front rank Tory leavers are especially socially conservative, or well-equipped to work on wider matters with these Labour figures  - and I remain puzzled by the real motives of both Mr Gove and Mr Johnson.

People have begun asking me who I think should or will become leader of the Tory Party. I reply that I don���t care. This is the wrong question.  Why are people so anxious to reduce politics to personal gossip? This vote has shown that both Tory and Labour Parties are dead, do not represent their voters, and no longer reflect the real division in this country. Both should have been wound up years ago. Neither ought to survive this.  This vote has been a vote against the existing political system and elite, and against the two political parties which have arrogantly misgoverned the country for decades.

 

The thing we most need now is the dissolution of a Parliament which has been shown to be absurdly unrepresentative of the population on the issued which matter most to it. But would an election be capable, at such short notice, of creating the new political alignment we so badly need? I am not sure.