Updated NCAA Probabilities

The play in games are over (thankfully). Here are probabilities for NCAA including the play in winners. Wichita State should be favored to beat Arizona.

CHANCE   OF WINNING EACH NUMBER OF GAMES




Team
0
1
2
3
4
5
6


Kansas
0.48%
18.32%
18.00%
22.02%
9.92%
12.90%
18.36%


MSU
3.54%
14.04%
19.56%
23.56%
15.08%
9.14%
15.08%


UNC
1.72%
16.26%
30.98%
17.94%
14.46%
7.58%
11.06%


UVA
0.64%
21.48%
27.82%
22.90%
11.78%
6.32%
9.06%


VILL
3.70%
28.14%
25.58%
20.68%
7.46%
6.58%
7.86%


WVA
16.98%
20.34%
21.72%
20.72%
10.16%
4.58%
5.50%


ORE
0.90%
32.36%
29.16%
14.32%
13.60%
5.56%
4.10%


A AND M
9.56%
29.78%
15.24%
21.66%
14.54%
5.78%
3.44%


UK
11.10%
37.96%
27.12%
9.98%
7.66%
2.94%
3.24%


PUR
15.96%
27.98%
28.30%
14.32%
6.92%
3.58%
2.94%


DUKE
16.28%
31.98%
22.80%
11.00%
10.96%
4.38%
2.60%


IND
10.10%
44.24%
25.82%
8.76%
6.38%
2.50%
2.20%


XAV
7.36%
31.34%
29.86%
18.68%
7.82%
2.96%
1.98%


MIA
7.36%
44.66%
26.66%
12.60%
3.80%
3.06%
1.86%


ARIZ
44.56%
25.48%
16.10%
7.86%
2.56%
2.06%
1.38%


MD
18.82%
32.60%
32.28%
9.26%
3.44%
2.30%
1.30%


IOWA
18.64%
52.26%
15.70%
8.22%
2.86%
1.34%
0.98%


BAY
31.14%
34.44%
17.72%
7.72%
5.94%
2.08%
0.96%


CAL
27.30%
34.32%
28.10%
6.58%
1.84%
1.18%
0.68%


GONZ
44.58%
24.22%
20.50%
7.00%
2.30%
0.74%
0.66%


ISU
17.86%
45.64%
23.22%
8.22%
3.28%
1.16%
0.62%


TEX
29.84%
40.30%
10.24%
11.06%
6.18%
1.80%
0.58%


UTAH
18.62%
40.44%
28.26%
8.18%
2.72%
1.26%
0.52%


Wichita
55.44%
22.92%
13.20%
5.58%
1.24%
1.16%
0.46%


CIN
42.54%
36.66%
12.20%
4.36%
3.02%
0.86%
0.36%


HALL
55.42%
20.38%
17.18%
4.54%
1.76%
0.36%
0.36%


UCONN
36.36%
49.74%
6.96%
4.36%
1.44%
0.84%
0.30%


VCU
41.72%
12.36%
28.26%
11.66%
4.82%
0.98%
0.20%


PITT
49.40%
31.28%
12.54%
4.76%
1.38%
0.46%
0.18%


BUT
39.44%
46.14%
8.78%
3.70%
1.36%
0.40%
0.18%


ND
48.36%
35.50%
9.88%
4.54%
1.28%
0.30%
0.14%


MICH
51.64%
34.08%
8.40%
4.24%
1.18%
0.32%
0.14%


STJOES
57.46%
30.10%
7.82%
2.62%
1.52%
0.36%
0.12%


OR ST
58.28%
11.94%
20.24%
6.90%
2.12%
0.42%
0.10%


WISC
50.60%
30.98%
11.96%
4.78%
1.24%
0.34%
0.10%


SYR
47.98%
42.92%
5.86%
2.30%
0.60%
0.24%
0.10%


YALE
68.86%
21.30%
7.00%
1.82%
0.76%
0.20%
0.06%


USC
49.96%
41.20%
6.30%
1.88%
0.48%
0.12%
0.06%


UNI
70.16%
22.12%
4.28%
2.64%
0.60%
0.16%
0.04%


COLO
63.64%
31.46%
3.24%
1.18%
0.32%
0.14%
0.02%


HAW
72.70%
19.44%
6.68%
1.00%
0.12%
0.04%
0.02%


PROV
50.04%
40.98%
6.58%
1.52%
0.62%
0.24%
0.02%


STONY
88.90%
8.80%
2.00%
0.20%
0.08%
0.00%
0.02%


TEXAS TECH
60.56%
31.80%
5.40%
1.66%
0.46%
0.10%
0.02%


DAYTON
52.02%
40.28%
4.78%
2.28%
0.50%
0.12%
0.02%


MTSU
96.46%
2.76%
0.66%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.02%


Aus Peay
99.52%
0.48%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


SDST
81.18%
13.64%
4.74%
0.32%
0.12%
0.00%
0.00%


BUFF
92.64%
6.94%
0.40%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


TEMPLE
81.36%
16.32%
1.96%
0.30%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%


UNCA
96.30%
3.28%
0.40%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


FCGU
99.10%
0.88%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


UNCW
83.72%
12.28%
3.28%
0.52%
0.18%
0.02%
0.00%


GB
90.44%
7.80%
1.18%
0.50%
0.08%
0.00%
0.00%


OKLA
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


CSB
0.00%
75.70%
20.56%
3.22%
0.50%
0.02%
0.00%


FGCU
98.28%
1.56%
0.16%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


CHAT
89.90%
9.00%
1.04%
0.04%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%


SFA
83.02%
10.08%
4.74%
1.90%
0.24%
0.02%
0.00%


WEB
92.64%
6.40%
0.90%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


HAM
99.36%
0.58%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


UALR
84.04%
11.14%
4.06%
0.64%
0.12%
0.00%
0.00%


IONA
82.14%
15.24%
2.36%
0.22%
0.04%
0.00%
0.00%


FRES
81.38%
14.96%
3.20%
0.38%
0.08%
0.00%
0.00%

 

Here is chance of each team winning >=N games

CHANCE   OF WINNING >=N GAMES





>=1
>=2
>=3
>=4
>=5
>=6


Kansas
99.52%
81.20%
63.20%
41.18%
31.26%
18.36%


MSU
96.46%
82.42%
62.86%
39.30%
24.22%
15.08%


UNC
98.28%
82.02%
51.04%
33.10%
18.64%
11.06%


UVA
99.36%
77.88%
50.06%
27.16%
15.38%
9.06%


VILL
96.30%
68.16%
42.58%
21.90%
14.44%
7.86%


WVA
83.02%
62.68%
40.96%
20.24%
10.08%
5.50%


ORE
99.10%
66.74%
37.58%
23.26%
9.66%
4.10%


A AND M
90.44%
60.66%
45.42%
23.76%
9.22%
3.44%


UK
88.90%
50.94%
23.82%
13.84%
6.18%
3.24%


PUR
84.04%
56.06%
27.76%
13.44%
6.52%
2.94%


DUKE
83.72%
51.74%
28.94%
17.94%
6.98%
2.60%


IND
89.90%
45.66%
19.84%
11.08%
4.70%
2.20%


XAV
92.64%
61.30%
31.44%
12.76%
4.94%
1.98%


MIA
92.64%
47.98%
21.32%
8.72%
4.92%
1.86%


ARIZ
55.44%
29.96%
13.86%
6.00%
3.44%
1.38%


MD
81.18%
48.58%
16.30%
7.04%
3.60%
1.30%


IOWA
81.36%
29.10%
13.40%
5.18%
2.32%
0.98%


BAY
68.86%
34.42%
16.70%
8.98%
3.04%
0.96%


CAL
72.70%
38.38%
10.28%
3.70%
1.86%
0.68%


GONZ
55.42%
31.20%
10.70%
3.70%
1.40%
0.66%


ISU
82.14%
36.50%
13.28%
5.06%
1.78%
0.62%


TEX
70.16%
29.86%
19.62%
8.56%
2.38%
0.58%


UTAH
81.38%
40.94%
12.68%
4.50%
1.78%
0.52%


Wichita
44.56%
21.64%
8.44%
2.86%
1.62%
0.46%


CIN
57.46%
20.80%
8.60%
4.24%
1.22%
0.36%


HALL
44.58%
24.20%
7.02%
2.48%
0.72%
0.36%


UCONN
63.64%
13.90%
6.94%
2.58%
1.14%
0.30%


VCU
58.28%
45.92%
17.66%
6.00%
1.18%
0.20%


PITT
50.60%
19.32%
6.78%
2.02%
0.64%
0.18%


BUT
60.56%
14.42%
5.64%
1.94%
0.58%
0.18%


ND
51.64%
16.14%
6.26%
1.72%
0.44%
0.14%


MICH
48.36%
14.28%
5.88%
1.64%
0.46%
0.14%


STJOES
42.54%
12.44%
4.62%
2.00%
0.48%
0.12%


OR ST
41.72%
29.78%
9.54%
2.64%
0.52%
0.10%


WISC
49.40%
18.42%
6.46%
1.68%
0.44%
0.10%


SYR
52.02%
9.10%
3.24%
0.94%
0.34%
0.10%


YALE
31.14%
9.84%
2.84%
1.02%
0.26%
0.06%


USC
50.04%
8.84%
2.54%
0.66%
0.18%
0.06%


UNI
29.84%
7.72%
3.44%
0.80%
0.20%
0.04%


COLO
36.36%
4.90%
1.66%
0.48%
0.16%
0.02%


HAW
27.30%
7.86%
1.18%
0.18%
0.06%
0.02%


PROV
49.96%
8.98%
2.40%
0.88%
0.26%
0.02%


STONY
11.10%
2.30%
0.30%
0.10%
0.02%
0.02%


TEXAS TECH
39.44%
7.64%
2.24%
0.58%
0.12%
0.02%


DAYTON
47.98%
7.70%
2.92%
0.64%
0.14%
0.02%


MTSU
3.54%
0.78%
0.12%
0.02%
0.02%
0.02%


Aus Peay
0.48%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


SDST
18.82%
5.18%
0.44%
0.12%
0.00%
0.00%


BUFF
7.36%
0.42%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


TEMPLE
18.64%
2.32%
0.36%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%


UNCA
3.70%
0.42%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


FCGU
0.90%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


UNCW
16.28%
4.00%
0.72%
0.20%
0.02%
0.00%


GB
9.56%
1.76%
0.58%
0.08%
0.00%
0.00%


OKLA
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


CSB
100.00%
24.30%
3.74%
0.52%
0.02%
0.00%


FGCU
1.72%
0.16%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


CHAT
10.10%
1.10%
0.06%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%


SFA
16.98%
6.90%
2.16%
0.26%
0.02%
0.00%


WEB
7.36%
0.96%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


HAM
0.64%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


UALR
15.96%
4.82%
0.76%
0.12%
0.00%
0.00%


IONA
17.86%
2.62%
0.26%
0.04%
0.00%
0.00%


FRES
18.62%
3.66%
0.46%
0.08%
0.00%
0.00%