Peter Behrens's Blog, page 91

1963 Cherolet C-10 Stepside.

 

Michael Moore caught the truck in the East Bay. We have posted another edition of this truck, from LA. And a 1964 Chevrolet C-10 up in Maine.

Ford Torino, NJ.

 

From Jonathan Welsh: "Trends in the car business were changing quickly when Ford rolled out this largely one-year styling exercise. The front end was a departure from earlier Torino's but the following year's model got boring again and stuck around mostly unchanged for years. Our neighbor had one just like this when I was a kid and yes, my friends and I thought it was very cool. Later models became famous as the car that TV cops Starsky and Hutch drove. The '72 was Clint Eastwood's costar in the 2008 film, "Gran Torino."AL: we caught a Gran Torino in Marfa Texas a while back. And here's a quick Torino on the Maine Turnpike. In the mid-Seventies, Ford was desperately trying to catch up with the Chevrolet Monte Carlo.

An EV for the masses?

 

The EVolution of the Rabbit?
"Volkswagen unveiled an affordable electric vehicle that’s a couple years away from production, putting Europe’s largest carmaker on a collision course with Tesla Inc.
 The compact ID. 2all concept previews a car costing less than €25,000 ($26,400) that VW is readying for the European market in 2025. The maker of the Golf hatchback — which was knocked off its perch atop sales charts last year — said Wednesday the EV will be as spacious as that model and as inexpensive as the Polo..." See Stefan Nicola's piece at Bloomberg.

1960 Pontiac Catalina, etc.

 

From Craig Manning, in LA: "Iron graveyard. Expired plates on each ride. Only the Prelude runs, I think. Suspect there is a body in that house."

1990s Ford Bronco

 

From Jonathan Welsh: "Buzz over the Bronco's return to Ford's retail lineup has led to a boom in demand for vintage models. While truly ancient examples from the 1960s are at a premium, the larger, later models are better-equipped. The last of the line, from the 1992 to 1996 model years, are best if you are looking for a little luxury with your off-road capability. We spotted this clean example in Portland, Maine. Love the color, called Calypso."

AL: here's a 1978 Bronco we caught in Lexington, Mass. last fall. And speaking of the 1960s Bronco...

The End of Spare Parts

 

This from the whyisthisinteresting sub stack. Thanks to DC Denison for the heads-up.

Ryan McManus (RMM) currently works as Design Strategy Director at D-Ford, Ford’s Human-Centered Design group, working on the future of mobility. He drives a 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser.

Ryan here. Recently, the check engine light came on in my daily driver, a 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser. So I did what I usually do: ran the code, figured out the fault, and messaged my go-to Land Cruiser guy, Onur Azeri. Onur agreed with my assessment of the issue, but his response was somewhat uncharacteristic: he asked if I intended on keeping the truck. Because if I’m keeping it, I should replace the entire faulty system and not just the single part. Why would that be? Because he doesn’t know how much longer these parts will be available. Or, in his words, “This stuff is going to be gone very, very shortly.”

Why is this interesting?

Before we delve into why this response was surprising, a bit of background about Onur. He has been in the Toyota parts game, both at a dealer and independently, for decades. He is a polymath of the Toyota production parts and logistics system and is intimately familiar with key suppliers. On the night I sent him that message, he had just returned from Dubai to visit one of the largest parts clearinghouses in the world.Onur on a trip to Toyota in Japan

And so this is where his reply to me was a little uncharacteristic. One unrecognized an early signal in the parts supply chain that for him portended a much larger shift in the industry: that the reliable access 

to parts for decades-old vehicles was ending. Or, in his words: “What 

we are seeing, in essence, is the nature of service parts availability responding to the greater macro-scope of the twilight of the ICE era 

in human mobility. We are at 11:55pm—we just have a few minutes left before the day changes.”

To understand the impact of this, one needs to understand that parts obsolescence is nothing new. Since the dawn of the mass-manufactured automobile, there has been a robust aftermarket for spare and replacement service parts. How long a vehicle’s parts are available after purchase is a complex equation that needs to account for the size of the Units in Operation (UIO), how competitive the aftermarket is for the particular part, how many other “platforms” share the same part (platforms, sometimes interchangeably referred to as “architectures”, are auto-industry speak for the shared structure, components, and other hardware underpinning multiple models from the same manufacturer), and the relative cost and complexity not just of the materials but also the tooling, storage, and transport.

Toyota has been a leader in the efficiency of these logistics—famously applying both the Kanban and Just In Time production philosophies. This has allowed them to supply a market for their vehicles in a highly efficient manner, keeping the global fleet of Toyotas in spares at relatively low cost and high availability. The chances of finding a part that had been discontinued from Toyota was fairly low. The Land Cruiser (we've posted several LC's on AL) platform is actually one of the most extreme examples of this—a vehicle that is depended on for both its durability and serviceable longevity across every continent and environment for decades after production date means that the value of its related part ecosystem is likely one of the more inured to the economics equation of discontinuation.

Which, again, made Onur’s comment so surprising: why had that equation changed, in his mind?

Two factors could be contributing to this acceleration of obsolescence. The first is the more immediate one—supply chain logistics have upended the automotive industry in historic ways, and parts are not immune to this impact. Semiconductor supply specifically has likely been forever reshaped. This has been covered extensively, so let’s skip over it for now.

The second, more lasting storm to hit the parts aftermarket, is the rapid industry transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with many seeing 2035 as the inflection point. Not only do battery electric vehicles require more complex, semiconductor-hungry parts, and systems, but their overall need for parts is actually far less than their combustion counterparts, especially in the consumable aftermarket. No coolant hoses, no distributor caps, no spark plugs—only tires, windshield wipers, and brakes (and even those at a less frequent replacement interval).

So this is the event horizon I believe Onur sees coming from his particular vantage point in the system: there will be fewer supplies to make parts for vehicles in the future, the vehicles of the coming future will require less of an aftermarket for parts (and the size of that market will shrink considerably year over year as ICE vehicles age out and die), and automakers will shift their business models from a robust parts sales aftermarket to revenue-generating connected subscription services.

This is all happening at a sort of fascinating time for the industry. Because of the supply chain disruptions and the irreversible schism in semiconductor supply, new cars are hard to come by. This fact has had a more dramatic effect on used vehicle values, where historical things like day-of-sale depreciation have all but evaporated. Combine this with a resurgent romanticism (and subsequent valuation) for vintage vehicles of the 60s-90s being driven by everything from Bring a Trailer to RADwood, and the internal combustion era might be having a bit of a supernova moment before collapsing into itself. And all of the people buying vintage Civics and 911s and Land Cruisers might find their upkeep a difficult proposition in the years to come.

And so back again to Onur’s prompt: do you intend to keep the truck, or sell it? Because if you want to sell it, fix only what you need to and exit at a historically high value. But if you intend to keep it, fix everything you can while parts are still available, and drive it as long as you can into that inevitable sunset. (RMM)

1984 Toyota Chassis Cab Wheelbarrow

Jonathan Walsh caught the truck in NJ, and expanded our idea of what a wheelbarrow truck can be. "A lot can happen to a truck in nearly 40 years, including numerous custom mods. This appears to be an original chassis cab, which Toyota turned out through the 1980s, often for camper conversions. This stake bed, spotted in Berkeley Heights, N.J., looks like a 1984 model. "

Cherry-Red MG

A Cherry-Red MG Roadster on Palmerston Sq, July, 2020

In the weeks after Savannah died,

I would see things 

in their new, unholy

light, stripped, as you do —

 

here’s one, Palmerston Square

in the magic excrescence 

the snow globe of glow that remains

of a sunless July evening,

I take the alley shortcut,

its mercenary efficiency

carving through the flanks of prim 

brick, northwest toward Bathurst.

 

All the old nameless alleyways

have signposts now

like department stores.

As with affairs, being named

they end soon after.

 

In the weeks after someone dies,

you think about them all the time

in the act of not thinking about them:

I’m not going to think about it, I think,

sharply intaking the filigree light, a scalpel —

it isn’t true, I think, clocking the 

cherry-red MG, casually resplendent, in the drive —

I’m not thinking about her —

young girl practising flute in the window — 

her then-ness or or her not-ness,

jangle of hoops, tattoos and dotted cotton,

a shed snakeskin 

her summer dress unmoored.

 

The young girl mouths her flute,

the notes wet the evening air.

 

Down the street, the knife-sharpener’s bell 

warbles, nearing. 

 

                                                            -Eva H.D.

AL: Note that our cherry-red MG roadster was parked in front of Friend Memorial Library, Brooklin, Maine. Photo by Henry Behrens

1999 Volvo V70, Cambridge.

These early edition V70s were basically the 850 with a facelift. Solid cars. Ford turned the 2001 V70 variants into problem children, notably with expensive  transmission problems.
AL posts photos & field notes from our contributors. We appreciate your take on interesting cars, trucks, landscapes, highways, automobile culture. Try us at autoliterate@gmail.com

1956 Ford Fairlane. California

From Michael Moore in Northern Cal: "Down by the water somebody had parked this mildly custom but notably original ’57 Fairlane I liked quite a lot; the lustre is off the paint and looks to have had a little restoration done on the roof but otherwise pretty straight, eh?  Said “Fordomatic” on the decklid...but the shifter on the floor might belie that."