David Salsburg





David Salsburg



ديفيد سالسبورغ عضو سابق في معهد ابحاث شركة يفايزر ويعمل الان مستشارا خاصا. وهو عضو في الجمعية الاميركية للاحصاء وقد حصل على جائزة مدى العمر لانجازاته من جمعية ابحاث الصيدلة وتصنيعها. الف ثلاثة كتب تقنية واكثر من خمسين مقالة علمية، وقد درس في كلية كونيتيكت وكلية الصحة العامة في جامعة هارفارد، وفي رود ايلاند كلية ترينيتي ، جامعة كونيتيكت وجامعة بينسيلفانيا يعيش الان في نيو لندن بكونيتيكيت.

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“Probit analysis provides a mathematical foundation for the doctrine first established by the sixteenth-century physician Paracelsus: “Only the dose makes a thing not a poison.” Under the Paracelsus doctrine, all things are potential poisons if given in a high enough dose, and all things are nonpoisonous if given in a low enough dose. To this doctrine, Bliss added the uncertainty associated with individual results. One reason why many foolish users of street drugs die or become very sick on cocaine or heroin or speed is that they see others using the drugs without being killed. They are like Bliss’s insects. They look around and see some of their fellow insects still alive. However, knowing that some individuals are still living provides no assurance that a given individual will survive. There is no way of predicting the response of a single individual.”
David Salsburg, The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century

“In high school algebra, someone had already worked out the formulas. The teacher knew them or could find them in the teacher’s manual for the textbook. Imagine a word problem where nobody knows how to turn it into a formula, where some of the information is redundant and should not be used, where crucial information is often missing, and where there is no similar example worked out earlier in the textbook. This is what happens when one tries to apply statistical models to real-life problems.”
David Salsburg, The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century

“In 1963, the chaos theorist Edward Lorenz presented an often-referenced lecture entitled “Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” Lorenz’s main point was that chaotic mathematical functions are very sensitive to initial conditions. Slight differences in initial conditions can lead to dramatically different results after many iterations. Lorenz believed that this sensitivity to slight differences in the beginning made it impossible to determine an answer to his question. Underlying Lorenz’s lecture was the assumption of determinism, that each initial condition can theoretically be traced as a cause of a final effect. This idea, called the “Butterfly Effect,” has been taken by the popularizers of chaos theory as a deep and wise truth. However, there is no scientific proof that such a cause and effect exists. There are no well-established mathematical models of reality that suggest such an effect. It is a statement of faith. It has as much scientific validity as statements about demons or God.”
David Salsburg, The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century

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