Nelson Lowhim's Blog, page 65

Sweden

Looks like things are gonna get dicey with the Trump admin going all in on herd immunity. Sweden, a place with a decent public health seems to have done badly. Then I watch this interview and it seems that it's really lost in many ways. But herd immunity cannot be ignored because it's something that some modelers feel is playing some role. To that end, I think the idea that lockdowns might not have worked (I've heard people immersed in data say this, and damn, do they seem to miss the data entry part of things). But many don't take a nuanced look at things like this.   Enjoyed it? Share it via email, facebook, twitter, or one of the buttons below (or through some other method you prefer). Thank you! As always, here's the tip jar. paypal.me/nlowhim Throw some change in there & help cover the costs of running this thing. You can use paypal or a credit card.

He's trying to Steal the Election. So here's what You can do.

So you're gonna have to fight back. For anyone thinking third party or perhaps just staying at home, I'll have to say that please try to think long term (and know that voting is a small thing, so voting for Biden is the only thing that makes sense). 
So here:The Senate is also important, so Actblue is place you can donate. 

Swing Left has a virtual phone bank you can participate in (and some other ways like donations etc). 
Resistance Labs is where you can text to get out the vote. 
Vote Forward is a way to do postcards to help improve voter turnout. 
Princeton Election Consortium has a list of races where your money will make the most difference. They have Senate races by "power" (where your money goes the furthest). And one for redistricting, if you're interested. 
Of course this doesn't mean that our work is over even if the Dems win (there will still be work to do), but it's a good first step. Let me know if I've missed something. 
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Belarus

Update: 30AUG2020 So it seems like the protests are continuing. I'm not sure where the men with guns stand (that is, the Belarusian police as well as the bear, Putin) or if they're going to keep pushing back at this movement. We'll have to see. One can see in the US where people are extremely dismissive towards anti-racist protestors and perhaps the more authoritarian parts of Belarus see these grassroots protests as such. 

As it stands, Putin has police on stand by if the situation gets out of control. (which he says includes occupying administrative buildings, which, I might add, are valid forms of protest but which we in the United States usually try to crack down on as well... the right definitely does, but others do too). Not sure what to say to that. I sense Putin sees this as a legitimate homegrown movement. But perhaps he doesn't see so much validity to it. (also their crackdown seems much less violent than the ones we see here in the US). 

Also trying to see what the election tampering was all about and I have seen a few (specific things, unlike Bolivia) but there haven't been so many cases presented. Still, I'll lean towards them having a better case (especially compared to Bolivia)

28Aug2020:

Mainly, I'd like to see some evidence based reports that people have. Please don't just screenshot some tweet, as that's rarely been helpful IMO. I want actual reports. Hopefully from non-US news sources, especially the MSM, but I'll be willing to read those as well. Al Jazeera's reporting seems to point to opposition protests being much larger than any counter demonstrations. 

Of course, given that Belarus isn't our ally, we can expect the usual (hypocritical) statements from the likes of the State Dept and Pompeo, but does that mean something entirely nefarious is going on there. I don't doubt, for example, that there are some western groups there, but that doesn't mean they aren't tapping into something legit. Also much of this seems different than the violence (mixed with a few protests) that started the coup in Bolivia. Also this Aljazeera article discusses Armenia as a possible example for Belarus.

Edit: Here's an LRB post with some good additions:

It appears that his initial reaction was something he had done before to previous protests. And something that worked for him before as well. 

"His initial response to suggestions of vote-rigging was characteristically ruthless. Protests were met by water cannon, rubber bullets and stun grenades, and three demonstrators were killed. As more than seven thousand people were taken into custody, social media were flooded with accounts and images of torture. Lukashenko wasn’t defiant in the face of the resistance so much as dismissive. His adversaries were either criminals or unemployed, he said. Insofar as they reflected a genuine threat, it was only because they were ‘sheep’ under the direction of shadowy foreign powers."

This part is interesting as the post does not mention even the possibility of "foreign powers". Nevertheless, it's the initial reaction after the violence against the protestors that seems to have taken many by surprise.

"As the unrest spread, high-profile figures including TV presenters, the rector of the national university and members of the Minsk Philharmonic Orchestra have sided with the protesters. Last Friday, the interior minister apologised for arresting too many ‘random people’, and the OMON riot squads he controls suddenly vanished from the streets. "

And the reaction of the people towards the violence was to show up in even larger numbers. 

"on Sunday, Belarus experienced the largest demonstrations in its history."

Lukashenko remained, though:

"Inertia may yet be the president’s saviour, and Belarus’s formidable security apparatus is built on powerful personal allegiances. Lukashenko’s departure is becoming at least imaginable, however. On a visit to the Minsk Tractor Works on Monday morning, intended to counter opposition calls for a general strike, Lukashenko sounded both agitated and vulnerable – mortal, even. Heckled repeatedly, he insisted there would be no re-run of the election ‘until you kill me’. As he stormed off, the workers chanted ‘Resign!’"

Putin, however, is what matters:

"The elephant in the room – or perhaps the bear – is Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader has long been wary of Lukashenko: the Belarusian president has always been a little too fond of playing political footsie with Brussels and Washington, and doesn’t consider Putin (in power for a mere twenty years) his superior. But though Russia’s president would prefer a pliant stooge, he can’t afford to see his neighbour toppled. "

But he didn't start by doing much:

"Aware that his options are limited, Putin has so far acted with restraint. Though he was quick to congratulate Lukashenko on his re-election (only Xi Jinping was quicker) and to warn EU leaders against ‘meddling’, the Kremlin’s official line is that those ‘problems that have arisen’ will sort themselves out."

Since then, Lukashenko has raised the specter of another "color revolution" and this has triggered Putin into some kind of action. 

"The rivalry between the two leaders is clearly on hold – and now that it’s them against the world, their dysfunctional relationship may even get back on track."

Also, it seems that many are against calling this a color revolution of any sort:

"I casually asked my new acquaintances what their revolution would be called, if it had a colour. They reacted as though stung. It didn’t have any colour, they said. It wasn’t even a revolution."

Not a bad take. Will add more as I get them. Please feel free to do the same, or take apart some of these assumptions as well.

So basically, my view is that this all points to an entirely legit protest movement. I sense even if some American (re state department type of groups) funding is behind some of it, there is legitimate anger at the regime. Also, unlike Bolivia, where it was a small protest backed by (right wing militias) very strong mob violence that pushed for a coup (the military being involved), we have something different here. 28AUG2020

This is ongoing, so please add your thoughts when you can or links to good information on the situation there. 

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Riots.

Check out this video from Minsk. That is how the police of an "authoritarian" soviet state act. Yeah, much nicer than this, which is how our police act. So basically if a country was stronger than us, they should start bombing us, for freedom.
Also, when the brownshirts come through, we gotta have better tactics when trying to stop a truck. 
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Nice article here. ON writing fiction in these crazy times.

You know I've been failing at writing the longer form fiction that I've been meaning to write, but I really couldn't put my finger on why. But recently, I read this article and it really puts why so much fiction fails at delivering (or the ones I write and throw out). I will say I too was worried that the best fiction writers were really creating fake news and conspiracies and getting newsletters then hawking vitamins and other things. Hell even though much of what I wrote in my last book came true, that didn't help my state of mind, or my writing. 
I'll go so far and say that when I wrote a lot of my fiction it was to counter almost all (to include zombie, or hero in the post-apocalypse) narratives I had read and felt where little more than high novels (high as in you get high because you as the MC create/do some great heroic things) with dressing. I also felt that it was these kind of narratives that we needed less of. 
So with this article I agree that things like the zombie narrative are dead (I always saw them as dead). But I think there's a way to counter this (of course, maybe that's why I don't sell books as well as others, so you have that) and that's Borge's like pseudo essays (or fake news not parading as news) or to write about conspiracies by subverting the current ones (IOW showing exactly how the current ones are working and why). 
Because I still think there's a need for fiction in this world. Especially one in which the brown shirts wear MAGAt hats and drive their trucks, then kill at will because they know the police have decided to let them go. 
Your thoughts?
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So it Goes. Fascism as a Homegrown Thing.

Nationwide, it would appear that the police have decided to try and cow the population into submission. I don't Belarus' gov has stories this bad, about how a paralyzed man is then handcuffed to his hospital bed because he stole bullets from the police. Oh wait, no they shot him in the back and must now punish him. Compare that to how Rittenhouse was treated before and after. While carrying a fucking Gun. 
Hell, you want out of state actors there for peaceful reasons? Like how they attacked these peaceful people coming to provide food (note they would never even think of doing this to the likes of Rittenhouse). The war at home, right? I remember seeing similar footage in Libya when CAG took down a terrorist. So understand that much of our law enforcement really wants to treat peaceful protesters as terrorists. 
Shit doesn't stop there, though. Here we have the police taking down politicians who are opposed to them. They are seriously daring people to come at them. Again, think about the protests we hear about in other countries (the ones we don't like, like Belarus etc) and how the treatment of those protestors is much NICER than how we treat our own people. 
The rot is deep, people, and we have to find a way to cut it out. 

btw, if you're out there in the protests, understand that the police are tracking a lot of things. Use this to make sure you have a burner phone. Use Signal as well. 
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A Quarter Million Dead

 But Trump said it would all just go away, right? On a long enough timeline we're all dead so Trump wins. Here's a blog post on it and the CDC paper on it. Also note that it could very well be undercounting the deaths given that people are driving less etc leading to fewer road deaths. But, of course, the GOP is screaming about the downslope again.

 

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On the RNC and fear mongering.

 If you know anything about advertising, if you can tie in your product to fear (for one's life or for one's loved ones' lives) you can sell a lot more of what you have. So in this market driven world, it's only right that politics has gone from trying to speak some truths to a reality out there, that the likes of our carnival barker POS-POTUS has managed to make fear of that which doesn't exist a lasting feature of our politi-scape. [1]

 

There are some interesting points, including that DV has stayed the same (really? that's surprising given the lockdowns and economic downturn). In fact, that would have been my instinctual answer: are we sure it isn't all DV? 

But no. It's mainly homocides that are up:

That certainly suggests there were more homicides. But it’s hard to say if that’s a result of more shootings, as some news reports have suggested, given that numbers of reported gun assaults weren’t significantly different. It’s unclear what’s driving the increase in homicides if more shootings aren’t.

But the spike isn't related to the protests. 

That's in Chicago, but there is some variation:

There’s a lot of variation from city to city. Denver, Minneapolis, New York City, and Philadelphia are on the high end of homicides or seeing a flat-out increase. Austin, Baltimore, Boston, and Columbus are in line with historical trends or actually down.

 There are a bunch of reasons for this, up to and including reporting (hence the difference between murder and other violent crimes). But here's one explanation for the DV numbers:

One note on domestic violence: Some activists and experts worried it would increase this year as people were forced to stay home more often. The Council on Criminal Justice report and City Crime Stats’ analysis suggest that’s not the case, showing no significant change or a drop in some places. But there’s reason for skepticism: Both sources are pulling data from a limited number of cities. And reporting limitations may especially apply to domestic violence, since this year victims are potentially more likely to be trapped with their abusers and unable to make a phone call for help.

But in the end, much of this is a nationwide issue, and affects even GOP-led cities. Whether it's covid or the rise in gun buying or police striking (I tend to blame police and their informants for much of the violence, so there's that.. not to mention that in Ferguson activists were killed mysteriously... so there's the other though I have that the police push[2] for more murders, something that's even harder to prove, but for which it'll be even harder to prove) or something else that's driving this rise, we'll just have to wait and see. 

Still, I can only expect Trump to scream about this and not waver for a second even if faced with facts that go against his narrative. It's important that we maintain a clear mind when analyzing this. 

Speaking of clear minds, was looking at this model for Covid, and the scientist involved does indeed think that immunity plays some role (hard to know how much individual actions matter, maybe those in such areas wash their hands more, wear masks more etc etc) and is different from lockdowns (in that some people don't react well to lockdowns, and in the end what does a lockdown mean?). CA is a case in point. 

 

Would like to hear your points on both of these issues.

So stay safe out there!

[1] Note this also happened before and even Clinton had to play to this, in that crime was falling but people were being thrown into jails for a large amount of time, rarely corresponding to the crimes committed (nevermind how much of the crime was lead-based). But I'm just saying he's taken it to new heights, especially when it doesn't compare to reality... IOW he's creating the fear out of thin air rather than twisting a minor issue into a larger one. 

[2] Well, we all know COINTELPRO, but there's also the matter.

 

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If you're in Louisiana, be safe.

Surges have already started, and Hurricane Laura went from a tropical storm to a cat 4 in the blink of an eye. And why? Climate Change.  
And that's why Trump's "It's a Chinese Hoax" Statement needs to be in every ad around the country (where tf is Bloomberg? Was he allowed to speak at the DNC convention without saying he'd spend as much on ads as he wasted on his own vanity campaignn?) superimposed with the reason Laura became so powerful so quickly. Narrator's voice: "A manchild is fine for reality tv, just not for the POTUS." Case in point is how badly the economy is doing, but all of trump's whining (and screaming and pointing at the stock market... which hasn't increased as much as during Obama's time) has somehow made the american people think he's competent at that job. I mean what the actual fuck?

Meanwhile in Wisconsin, the police shake hands with right wing militias because they're really just brothers. and those brothers are okay since they like to shoot protestors for nothing.

The shitshow will continue until morale improves.
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Cancel Culture.

Here we are: with a FB exec allowing Hindu nationalists to call for the slaughter of  muslims then it happens. She also, btw, posts anti-Muslim crap. [1] Since there was actual massacres and violence, one has to wonder what exactly the line for cancel culture is. Should she lose her job because of the violence that people carried out that she allowed (not sure if there is a direct connection), or because her post speaks to that? (IOW does the line have to be crossed for actual death to happen?). Or, since she did nothing and only spoke, then should she stay? Note that she got death threats right after her anti-Muslim post. 
Thoughts?



[1] Christ, what a bench we have for the Desi Wall of shame.
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