Erick Erickson's Blog, page 120

An Open Letter to Anyone Who Thinks Obama Should Not Go On Vacation

Dear People Who Think Obama Should Not Go On Vacation:

Are you out of your ever living mind?!?!?!

Have you not seen what destruction on our economy and morale this man has wrought for three years?!?!

And you want him to go back to Washington, D.C.? Congress too? You are out of your mind.

The correct answer is STAY ON VACATION ALL OF YOU. The stock market tends to do better when Congress is gone. The world tends to run fine when this President is on vacation. Our freedoms cannot be further encroached while Obama is in Martha's Vineyard.

Please, stop asking this man to come back to Washington where everything he touches tends to break down.

When he comes back in September he says he will have a plan to create jobs. The last several plans he had to create jobs killed or destroyed more private sector jobs than even the most radical leftist could have hoped for. Please, please, please stop saying he needs to come back to Washington.

Mr. President, you take as much vacation as you want. In fact, if you want to leave the country and go visit your relatives in Kenya or just go for a safari or go see your old stomping grounds in Indonesia or, heck, take the family to see penguins in Antarctica or even go to Bora Bora, I'd be glad to have you take say . . . the next twelve months off.

And even better, I'm sure we can find some people to fund your vacation other than the American taxpayers who you've been using to fund your political campaign bus tour.

Morning Briefing for August 19, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For August 19, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. An Open Letter to Anyone Who Thinks Obama Should Not Go On Vacation

2. Rick Perry Insensitive to Barack Obama's Feelings!

3. The FTC's Internet Kill Switch

4. A Primer For Union Members: How Not To Be Burned During A Union Strike

5. The Horserace for August 18, 2011

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1. An Open Letter to Anyone Who Thinks Obama Should Not Go On Vacation

Dear People Who Think Obama Should Not Go On Vacation:

Are you out of your ever living mind?!?!?!

Have you not seen what destruction on our economy and morale this man has wrought for three years?!?!

And you want him to go back to Washington, D.C.? Congress too? You are out of your mind.

The correct answer is STAY ON VACATION ALL OF YOU. The stock market tends to do better when Congress is gone. The world tends to run fine when this President is on vacation. Our freedoms cannot be further encroached while Obama is in Martha's Vineyard.

Please, stop asking this man to come back to Washington where everything he touches tends to break down.

When he comes back in September he says he will have a plan to create jobs. The last several plans he had to create jobs killed or destroyed more private sector jobs than even the most radical leftist could have hoped for. Please, please, please stop saying he needs to come back to Washington.

Mr. President, you take as much vacation as you want. In fact, if you want to leave the country and go visit your relatives in Kenya or just go for a safari or go see your old stomping grounds in Indonesia or, heck, take the family to see penguins in Antarctica or even go to Bora Bora, I'd be glad to have you take say . . . the next twelve months off.

And even better, I'm sure we can find some people to fund your vacation other than the American taxpayers who you've been using to fund your political campaign bus tour.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Rick Perry Insensitive to Barack Obama's Feelings!

Governor and new Presidential candidate Rick Perry (R, TX), on his priority levels:

"…if I hurt the president's feelings, well, with all due respect, I love my country and I love future generations more than I care about his feelings."

To give the context: the White House has been taking the opportunity offered by Perry's entrance to the race to take slaps at the candidate. As Glenn Reynolds noted at the time, this was not a particularly smart strategy… which is something that I've come to agree with, and I'll tell you why.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The FTC's Internet Kill Switch

Bureaucrats at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) are pursuing a heavy-handed regulatory approach to address vague concerns about consumers' online privacy. They claim that privacy is threatened by a shadowy group of advertisers who are harvesting your data from behind the screen to sell you more stuff. While I don't discount the agency's good intentions to protect consumers, FTC activists have supported regulations that would threaten the lifeblood of the Internet: data.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. A Primer For Union Members: How Not To Be Burned During A Union Strike

Back in the day, before Darth Vader saw the light at the end of the movie and when strikes were more prevalent than they are today, there was a time when union bosses conditioned their members for the eventuality that negotiations could break down and union members might be on strike—for a long, long time.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Horserace for August 18, 2011

Tim Pawlenty is out of the race. Rick Perry is in the race. Not only is Perry in, he is surging to first place in the Rasmussen polling. But it is still Mitt Romney's race to lose right now.

The race is beginning to find some momentum of its own. Rick Perry's entry was not a Fred Thompson entry as some expected. He is dominating the conversation and forcing both Democrats and Republicans to respond to him. Whether he can keep it up and whether it blows back on him will be interesting to see moving forward.

Today, we have to spend time weeding out candidates, which will make some of you mad. Also, we'll deal with Paul Ryan and Chris Christie.

Below the fold, the horse race gallops ahead.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

The Horserace for August 18, 2011

IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012

NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012

NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012

SC Primary: Feb. 28, 2012

Tim Pawlenty is out of the race. Rick Perry is in the race. Not only is Perry in, he is surging to first place in the Rasmussen polling. But it is still Mitt Romney's race to lose right now.

The race is beginning to find some momentum of its own. Rick Perry's entry was not a Fred Thompson entry as some expected. He is dominating the conversation and forcing both Democrats and Republicans to respond to him. Whether he can keep it up and whether it blows back on him will be interesting to see moving forward.

Today, we have to spend time weeding out candidates, which will make some of you mad. Also, we'll deal with Paul Ryan and Chris Christie.

Below the fold, the horse race gallops ahead.

Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann now has two historic factors working against her.

First, no member of the United States House of Representatives has made it from Congress to the White House since the 1800′s.

Second, the winner of the Ames Iowa Straw Poll more often than not does not win the Iowa Caucus and it is even rarer for the straw poll winner to actually win the party nomination. Why? Well, because of the vast amount of resources that must be consumed to be competitive in Ames for starters. Ames is rapidly discrediting itself, though it serves as a useful venue to weed out some candidates and, thankful, reduce the number of participants in debates.

All that said, let me make one thing clear: Michele Bachmann has surpassed all expectations that anyone has ever had for her. If anyone can defy history it will be Michele Bachmann.

There is one troubling issue that her campaign rapidly needs to get a handle on: the prima donna rap against her. Yes, you can call it sexist. But don't dismiss it. It is starting to develop in the media and will be a real problem for her moving forward as it sinks into the conscience of caucus goers and others.

The basic attack is that Bachmann is aloof, refuses to mingle, and has let it go to her head.

I know there are times Bachmann seems as if she is above it all. And I know a lot of her staff has lashed out at her on background — not just former staff, but current staff believe it or not. This will be a real problem for her if she cannot tamp it down as people will suspect it is all for show.

The Michele Bachmann i know is not just a solid conservative, but one hell of a retail politician. She's going to need to get back to that quickly because the press is starting to play up every perceived snub, sleight, and arrogance.

At the same time, Bachmann is going to have to figure out a way to cut down Rick Perry's momentum. Polls suggest he is cutting into her base of support quickly and rapidly consolidating a lead.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain is done.

In all honesty, I think if I did not like Herman as much as I do and did not feel some measure of gratitude for him allowing me to take his radio show, I would have objectively cut him off this list before now.

A few weeks ago, Herman said he needed to be in the top 3 in Ames, IA's straw poll. But he came in fifth. His spin now is that he spent no money and was able to beat out others. The problem is he came in fifth far from the top. He also did spend money on a bus to go around Iowa. And something else.

In all polling of both Iowa and nationally, Herman Cain has led Rick Santorum. But Rick Santorum, whose financial position is worse than Herman Cain's, got more votes at Ames. That suggests one of two things — either Herman's support is fading or it was always shallow to begin with.

Either way, Herman Cain's ride in our horse race comes to an end now, whether he stays in or not. He may get a second wind, but given his finances, lack of stellar debate performances of late, and his otherwise overall failure to gain traction, I think it is time for Herman to come home to Georgia and start preparing for the Senate in 2014 against Saxby Chambliss.

Chris Christie

Jonathan Alter of Newsweek may have sources telling him Christie is "focus grouping" a run for the White House, but I have never known Chris Christie to focus group anything. Likewise, both Christie and his staff are denying he has any intention of running and I believe them. That's not to say he could not change his mind, but I think it is unlikely.

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman, at present, appears to have no path to victory. He cannot, however, be counted out because of his ability to fund himself for a while.

People close to his campaign whisper that Huntsman has no intention of putting money in. And if he does not, he is done. But he can still have an impact in the race by forcing Mitt Romney to work harder in places like New Hampshire and Florida.

All that said though, it appears unlikely Huntsman will even have that impact. His performance in the Iowa debate was charlatanesque. He has no broad based appeal within the grassroots and remains useful in the race only for liberals who wish to sneer at the other candidates and wish they were more like Huntsman.

Paul Ryan

He reportedly made up his mind months ago to not run and is rumored to be getting pressured to rethink things.

If Paul Ryan gets in, he would have the same hurdle of Michele Bachmann in that a person has not gone from the House to the White House since the 1800′s.

Ryan would also have no natural, national fundraising base. The tea party movement dislikes that his plan to balance the budget takes an eon and raising the debt limit to $23 trillion. Those who do like him are tied up with other candidates.

And during the debt ceiling debate, Ryan was no where to be found while the White House and Democrats pounded the stew out of him until moving on to pound the crap out of Eric Cantor and others. If Ryan gets in, I don't see how he gets on a path to victory and suspect he will, again, decide not to get in.

Sarah Palin

I guess when I originally posted, I pasted over Sarah Palin with Paul Ryan. Sorry.

In any event, everyone still seems divided on whether Palin will get in the race. I am inclined to say she will not. Here's why.

Whether you or I like her, the fact is she has 95% name ID and only 12% support according to recent Gallup polling. Given the high name ID and low support and some polls showing other candidates ahead of her already, I just don't know that she is going to run.

If she does, I suspect those numbers will shift in her favor. A lot of people who would support her right now think she is not running. Her entry would change that. She'd also be able to quickly raise money. But I do not think enough support shifting or money raised would put her into strong contention to battle Romney. And her entry would cause such a stir and all consultant class guns trained in her direction, at this late entry, it could help Bachmann and Perry for her to get in.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee.

Rick Perry

Here is Rick Perry's problem.

Carole Strayhorn ran against Perry in the GOP primary in 2006. She and her consultants had their butts handed to them by Perry and his team.

Karl Rove was a key player, despite his occasional denials, in Kay Bailey Hutchison's defeat at Rick Perry's hands last year in the Republican primary for Texas Governor.

Even Obama's campaign guy, David Axelrod, has been crushed by Rick Perry.

So you have these guys, the Romney camp, and all their related friends on the left and the right trying to settle every score they can with Perry and his consultant, Dave Carney.

This, by the way, is why the attacks are coming fast and furious right now. This is why Republicans are leaking to reporters that Perry is too out of control or has, as Alex Castellanos put it on CNN last night, "Mad Cowboy Disease."

Because so much of the consultant class will be shut out of the White House should Rick Perry win, their livelihoods depend on Rick Perry losing either now or in November. And frankly, for a few in the GOP consultant class, they'll gladly see Perry lose in November just to ensure they are not shut out of a Republican White House.

For all the talk of Perry being an establishment guy, the establishment hates his guts as much as the left does. That's one reason the base finds him so endearing. See, for example, this more expansive column by Matt Lattimer on the Rove v. Perry history, which tracks with my own thinking on this.

The Perry campaign will have to withstand a lot to keep standing. This, more than any other reason, is why Perry cannot be considered the front runner just yet. It's going to take weeks of this to see if he can hold up and hold up his polling. Keep in mind that the Republicans and Democrats are both playing at cross purposes with Perry right now. The GOP wants to convince Republican primary voters that Perry is too radioactive to be able to take on Obama. The Democrats want to play off that and scare the mess out of swing voters.

We're going to be hearing a lot about Barry Goldwater for the next few months. They'll ignore the Reagan comparison, which the Democrats used to play off Reagan to no avail in 1980.

Oh, and on top of all of that, he has both Sarah Palin fans and Ron Paul fans lined up against him to prove how un-conservative he is. I do not envy Rick Perry right now.

Mitt Romney

Do not underestimate Mitt Romney. Some of you Perry fans are already all on board with him being the front runner.

You are irrationally exuberant.

Mitt Romney has piles of cash Rick Perry can only dream of. Mitt Romney also has the backing of the very same consultant class within the GOP intent on destroying Rick Perry. Mitt Romney has also been on the national stage before at this level and Rick Perry hasn't.

Romney has been focused like a laser flying around the country raising stockpiles of cash to compete with Barack Obama and he will deploy a lot of it to defeat Rick Perry if he has to, though I suspect his campaign intends to keep its hands clean and let the GOP consultant class do the work for them.

Yes, Mitt Romney was in the Mittness Protection Program. Yes, he just came out and stumbled. But that was leg stretching, nothing more. Mitt Romney is the front runner and it will take a few weeks of consistent polling to see if anything changes. A candidate being in the race for 5 days does not a front runner make.

There is one note of caution on Mitt Romney — he is using the playbook for a normal election year. I do not think this is a normal election year. He is positioning himself to seem more reasonable than Perry on issues like global warming, etc. He refuses to walk back Romneycare. He is looking very Presidential and above a lot of the melee that happens in primaries.

In 1988 or 1996 or 2000 or 2008, that would be the strategy. But I get the strong sense that this election cycle will be much more like 1980 when the establishment put up George H. W. Bush to run against Ronald Reagan. The consultant class and the establishment rallied early, they worked to paint Reagan as fringe and the second coming of Barry Goldwater, and the boys from California crushed them all on the road to the White House.

Let me assure you, the boys from California are pikers compared to the boys from Texas.

Listing of Presidential candidates

I consider "former" candidates

(in order of being dropped)

Gary Johnson

Rick Santorum

Thad McCotter

Newt Gingrich

Tim Pawlenty

Morning Briefing for August 18, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For August 18, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Where Is the Outrage At Captain Bull Malarkey and His Bus Tour?

2. The Food Stamp Party is Stimulating Poverty

3. Why It Is Still Romney's Race To Lose

4. Watching Mouths

5. Drilling Rigs in Pennsylvania! Hide the Womenfolk!

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1. Where Is the Outrage At Captain Bull Malarkey and His Bus Tour?

August is such a vacuum in Washington. I would like to think the GOP might seize on it to focus on two things for which I do not think there is sufficient outrage.

The first is Barack Obama's bus tour. It is a campaign trip. The administration is doing little to hide it and a passive press corps is even describing it as a bus tour while minimizing the fact that American taxpayers are footing the bill in its entirety.

When George W. Bush took his own bus tour, he did so with campaign funds. Barack Obama is expecting you, me, and everyone else to fund his re-election campaign. At a time when 17% of the country is either unemployed or underemployed, it is appalling that the President would use our money to fund his re-election and that re-election message would be that we need to give him even more of our money.

Sell the damn buses and refund the money, Mr. President. It is a campaign trip pure and simple and your campaign should fund it. It is outrageous that you would buy million dollar buses from Canada in order to drive around the countryside demagoguing private jet owners.

Even more appalling than that is his Agriculture Secretary, Tom Vilsack, declaring the expansion of the food stamp program to be a stimulus. I don't know about you, but I think if I were dependent on food stamps, I would not exactly feel stimulated.

He has the temerity to say that for every food stamp dollar spent, $1.87 is turned by into the economy. He, of course, ignores all the additional money consumed by the bureaucracy and administration costs of the program and the waste, fraud, and abuse the President goes on and on about.

Not only that though, but Vilsack actually brags that the Obama administration has expanded the food stamp program and . . . wait for it . . . has consequently expanded the stimulus.

And on top of it all, with 17% of Americans either unemployed or underemployed, Barack Obama has the nerve to tell us on his taxpayer funded campaign trip that sometime after he gets back from vacation in September he will have a jobs program. Finally. More than 900 days into his administration, Captain Bull Malarkey and the Banana Republic bunch will show up with a jobs plan.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Food Stamp Party is Stimulating Poverty

The loss of jobs is only half of the result of the government interventionist equation. The other casualty of an economy driven by taxation, regulation, litigation, subsidization, monetary intervention, and debt is the crippling cost of living for all Americans. [Yes, I was about to say middle class, but we would be wise to eradicate that sort of socialist innuendo from our vernacular.]

Earlier today, the latest wholesale inflationary numbers were released. The core PPI rose 0.4% in July, while year over year PPI is now close to a three year high at 7.2%. Additionally, food prices rose another 0.6% in July. These numbers are quite disconcerting, given the sharp slowdown in economic activity. The higher wholesale costs are inevitably passed down to consumers, forcing them to pay more for basic products, such as energy, food, and transportation.

While there are many cyclical factors that affect the price of food and fuel, and by extension, everything else; nonetheless, clearly central planning from the government has kept prices artificially high.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Why It Is Still Romney's Race To Lose

I'm getting a lot of disagreement with my earlier statement that the race is still Mitt Romney's to lose. Some of it is irrational exuberance from Perry supporters. Some of it is legitimate. Your mileage may vary on my thinking, but I did want to lay it out.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Watching Mouths

Rick Perry's biggest problem to getting the Republican nomination and winning a general election is Rick Perry. He is going to have to overcome attacks both from Karl Rove acolytes helping Mitt Romney and also from Democrats painting him as the second coming of George W. Bush. He will have to appeal to swing, independent voters, women, and people who are still a bit tired of the last Christian/military pilot/Texas Governor.

But all the people saying Rick Perry's comments on Ben Bernanke hurt him have some serious Beltway-itis.

Dude got the President of the United States to respond personally and directly to him — not to the field, not to the generic Republican, but to Rick Perry.

Even more importantly, Barack Obama's comments were on how Rick Perry, in effect, needed to do his job. Imagine that, the man who has killed more jobs than saved wants to lecture an opponent on how to do his job.

More so, Ben Bernanke is not exactly Mr. Popular.

In 24 hours, Perry managed to get Karl Rove to attack him and Barack Obama to attack him. About the only down side is that most Americans are probably getting their kids back to school this week and did not notice.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Drilling Rigs in Pennsylvania! Hide the Womenfolk!

Democratic State Rep. Michael Sturla is apparently not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Speaking of the impact of the Marcellus Shale drilling boom on Pennsylvania, Sturla said:

"Also, aside from building roads so their trucks can get to drill sites and doing a little stream work to mitigate damage from their road building, exactly what are all those things the drillers are doing for the local communities? Patronizing the bars at night? Driving up the cost of rental housing? Spreading sexually transmitted disease amongst the womenfolk? …"

Amongst the womenfolk? Why do I feel like I am watching an episode of Bonanza?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Let's Use Teenage Girls As Lab Rats For a Monopoly

A lot has been written recently about Rick Perry's decision to require girls to get the HPV vaccine. He now says he made a mistake and should have made it opt in, instead of opt out. It is worth nothing that, contrary to a lot of reports, there was an opt-out provision.

Nonetheless, while everyone is writing about it right now, I wrote about it back in 2007 when the fight was actually happening. You can read it here but since the site is loading slowly, I've reposted below the fold.

I stand by my post made at the time. I'd also note that by the time I wrote the post in July of 2007, the issue was already moot in Texas. Perry had backed down under legislative pressure well before then. Hat tip to WILLisms for reminding me of that fact in the comments.

By the way, you know what's funny about this? About three weeks ago I was on Anderson Cooper's show and said that this very issue would be one of the most significant stumbling blocks Rick Perry would face early on. The lady I was on with, I think from Center for American Progress, laughed and was surprised I thought it was a big deal.

In other words, this issue only really resonates on the right.

Let's Use Teenage Girls As Lab Rats For a Monopoly

It is the 100th anniversary of eugenics after all

Originally posted July 7, 2007

This has been discussed a bit here, but today the Wall Street Journal is running this article (subscription required) on states requiring girls to get the HPV vaccine. What I didn't know was that the effort at the state level corresponds to Merck Pharmaceutical's lobbying efforts. Merck has a monopoly on the vaccine and the vaccine is more expensive than vaccines like the MMR shot.

From the article:

Bills being drafted in some 20 U.S. states that would make a cervical-cancer vaccine mandatory for preteen girls are sparking a backlash among parents and consumer advocates.

The bills coincide with an aggressive lobbying campaign by Merck & Co., the maker of the only such vaccine on the market. Called Gardasil, the three-shot regimen provides protection against the human papillomavirus, a sexually transmitted virus that is responsible for the majority of cases of cervical cancer.

If the state bills become law, they would guarantee the Whitehouse Station, N.J., drug maker billions of dollars in annual revenue from the vaccine.

I'm not one of those unabomber types that lives in the woods and refuses to comply with mandatory vaccination laws for my children. But, let's be clear here — this vaccine is not needed to stop a readily communicable disease like chicken pox or measles or mumps, etc. The disease in question, HPV, is spread by sexual conduct. It sometimes causes cervical cancer. And the vaccine does not even prevent all strains of HPV. Again from the article:

Merck says cervical cancer is the second-leading cancer among women around the world, but the disease's prevalence is actually low in the U.S. The American Cancer Society estimates that 11,150 women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer and 3,670 will die from it in the U.S. this year. That's equivalent to 0.77% of cancers diagnosed in the U.S. and 0.65% of U.S. cancer deaths each year. By comparison, the society estimates that 178,480 American women will get diagnosed with breast cancer in 2007 and 40,460 will die from it.

I think a responsible parent might want to get the vaccine for their daughter. But I don't think it is sound public policy to be forcing the profit stream of a pharmaceutical company onto an unwilling public when the company has a monopoly on the drug and seems clearly to be behind the efforts to get these laws passed.

Lastly, the drug just came out. Do we really want to forcibly treat school girls as guinea pigs for Merck when the majority of them probably will never even need the vaccine or get the disease the vaccine hopes to prevent? And Merck does not even know if booster shots will be needed later in life. The drug is that new. In fact, it hasn't even been fully tested on children and doesn't wipe out all strains of HPV, and the risk of pelvic disease has doubled in those who have had the vaccine. Oh, and boys aren't getting the vaccine despite the fact that they also can contract the virus.

This gives me the creeps. With the 100th anniversary of eugenics being remembered in the country, it just gives me the creeps that we might be forcing teenagers to serve as guinea pigs for a new drug held monopolistically by Merck that probably is not needed for most of them — but we're doing it for the children.

Sure, it sounds good. It sounds like an excellent idea. But the lobbying by Merck behind the proposal and the fact that the drug is so new and prevents a virus that is not nearly as communicably infectious as standard mandatory vaccines gives me pause. No doubt we might all decide that this is sound public policy. But why rush into with the lobbyists pushing for it when we can, right now, educate parents and let them decide.

Why It Is Still Romney's Race To Lose

I'm getting a lot of disagreement with my earlier statement that the race is still Mitt Romney's to lose. Some of it is irrational exuberance from Perry supporters. Some of it is legitimate. Your mileage may vary on my thinking, but I did want to lay it out.

I think the first thing to point out is what Sean Trende pointed out at Real Clear Politics.

Around this time in 2003, it was a given that Howard Dean would be the Democrats' nominee, and that John Kerry's campaign was on life support. In 2007, people were already writing the postmortems on the Obama and McCain campaigns, dissecting what had gone wrong. In all three cases, it wasn't until November that the eventual nominees began to show some signs of life. My former colleague Jay Cost is fond of saying that pollsters right now are polling a bunch of people who just aren't paying attention. He's right, and that's important to keep in mind.

That is precisely right and precisely my starting point.

What we have now is a five way race for the primary: Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney.

Neither Huntsman nor Paul, at this point, have a path to victory, but their voters could be deeply influential in picking the nominee — ironically, though polling at a smaller percentage, Huntsman's voters will have more influence than Paul's because Paul's are largely of the "Paul or nobody" variety. Huntsman likewise has not yet begun to fight with his money, so we can't count him out just yet.

Yes, Herman Cain's voters, Newt Gingrich's, and Rick Santorum's will also play a role, but those candidates themselves have ceased to be relevant in 2012 and, despite my highlighting Trende's points about early conventional wisdom, these candidates will not regain any relevance. Their paths to victory are gone for good.

So why is it still Mitt Romney's race? Two things: money and Karl Rove.

Rick Perry may get ahead of Mitt Romney in the polling, but he cannot knock Mitt Romney out. Romney has too much money and can add more at will. Perry is, in fact, going to have to do a serious job of raising money online from the grassroots and high dollar donors.

More so, we still don't know if Rick Perry is going to be just a flash in the pan. He could be. He'll have to work on positioning himself as someone more than a regional candidate, let alone a candidate without broad base appeal throughout the Republican Primary. Perry is going to have a great few weeks, but we'll need to see about his staying power. If he is unable to stay strong, Romney will be able to play it, but even more so, someone like Chris Christie, rumored now to be looking at getting in, might be able to capitalize on it. (Full disclosure: I don't think Christie is running)

Mitt Romney's money advantage can buy him time to hold on and wait for Perry to implode. And helping Perry implode will be none other than Karl Rove. The rumors about a Bush vs. Perry antagonism are really more about Rove vs. Perry and Perry's team. The hostility is already there and Rove plays not just for keeps, but also to avoid his own marginalization should Perry be the nominee.

The attacks are going to come fast and furious over the next couple of months. If Perry can withstand them and raise money, then yes, it will be his to lose. But right now, the attacks are just revving up. While the attacks may be old to tuned in Republican activists and Texans, they will be brand new to voters just starting to tune in.

Yes, Perry is a candidate many people are suddenly excited about. But Romney does not need excitement. He has high name identification, lots of money, and patience to wait while others attack Perry. I think it is still his to lose. More so, Rick Perry will have to fight Michele Bachmann over a common pool of voters that Romney does not necessarily need.

If, by November, Perry is still holding his own, then I think Perry really becomes the true front runner and it will become quickly locked in by a primary calendar that will favor Perry. Between now and then, my guess is that the polls will fluctuate with rumors of other candidates, possible other candidates, and several debates to shape the candidates.

Putting it another way: Mitt Romney has been the front runner for months on end. Rick Perry has only been in the race five days. That's too soon to suddenly declare Romney, with his money and backers, in second place.

Watching Mouths

Rick Perry's biggest problem to getting the Republican nomination and winning a general election is Rick Perry. He is going to have to overcome attacks both from Karl Rove acolytes helping Mitt Romney and also from Democrats painting him as the second coming of George W. Bush. He will have to appeal to swing, independent voters, women, and people who are still a bit tired of the last Christian/military pilot/Texas Governor.

But all the people saying Rick Perry's comments on Ben Bernanke hurt him have some serious Beltway-itis.

Dude got the President of the United States to respond personally and directly to him — not to the field, not to the generic Republican, but to Rick Perry.

Even more importantly, Barack Obama's comments were on how Rick Perry, in effect, needed to do his job. Imagine that, the man who has killed more jobs than saved wants to lecture an opponent on how to do his job.

More so, Ben Bernanke is not exactly Mr. Popular.

In 24 hours, Perry managed to get Karl Rove to attack him and Barack Obama to attack him. About the only down side is that most Americans are probably getting their kids back to school this week and did not notice.

It was an attention getting moment for Rick Perry from the President of the United States that the other candidates might wish they had gotten.

I would, however, say one thing to Perry supporters who deliciously say all this is because "they fear Rick Perry."

They don't fear Rick Perry. They are hoping Rick Perry might actually have a shot. They had the same hope of Reagan in 1980, but also of Goldwater in 1964.

This has nothing to do with fear. It has everything to do with hate. They hate Rick Perry. They hate his values. They hate his accent. They hate his boots. They hate his state. And their calculus will be that America hates him as much as they do. Put another way, the Democrats will play Perry for Goldwater. Perry will need to be Reagan.

And for reasons I'll get into later, it is still Mitt Romney's race to lose, so go take a cold shower, Perry fans.

Where Is the Outrage At Captain Bull Malarkey and His Bus Tour?

August is such a vacuum in Washington. I would like to think the GOP might seize on it to focus on two things for which I do not think there is sufficient outrage.

The first is Barack Obama's bus tour. It is a campaign trip. The administration is doing little to hide it and a passive press corps is even describing it as a bus tour while minimizing the fact that American taxpayers are footing the bill in its entirety.

When George W. Bush took his own bus tour, he did so with campaign funds. Barack Obama is expecting you, me, and everyone else to fund his re-election campaign. At a time when 17% of the country is either unemployed or underemployed, it is appalling that the President would use our money to fund his re-election and that re-election message would be that we need to give him even more of our money.

Sell the damn buses and refund the money, Mr. President. It is a campaign trip pure and simple and your campaign should fund it. It is outrageous that you would buy million dollar buses from Canada in order to drive around the countryside demagoguing private jet owners.

Even more appalling than that is his Agriculture Secretary, Tom Vilsack, declaring the expansion of the food stamp program to be a stimulus. I don't know about you, but I think if I were dependent on food stamps, I would not exactly feel stimulated.

He has the temerity to say that for every food stamp dollar spent, $1.87 is turned by into the economy. He, of course, ignores all the additional money consumed by the bureaucracy and administration costs of the program and the waste, fraud, and abuse the President goes on and on about.

Not only that though, but Vilsack actually brags that the Obama administration has expanded the food stamp program and . . . wait for it . . . has consequently expanded the stimulus.

And on top of it all, with 17% of Americans either unemployed or underemployed, Barack Obama has the nerve to tell us on his taxpayer funded campaign trip that sometime after he gets back from vacation in September he will have a jobs program. Finally. More than 900 days into his administration, Captain Bull Malarkey and the Banana Republic bunch will show up with a jobs plan.

Well, I'm sure you all feel better now. We are being managed like we're a third world banana republic. Where the heck is the outrage?

The GOP should spend August focused like a laser on these buses and Vilsack's comments.

Morning Briefing for August 17, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For August 17, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Obama's audacious taxpayer-funded reelection campaign bus tour

2. The Greyhound To Nowhere

3. Obama is a Big Black Cloud, says Ed Schultz

4. Ohio Business Owner Shot For Being Non-Union, Police Investigating

5. GOP Must Hold the Line Against Obama's ATM Politics With Free Trade

6. Is Karl Rove Afraid of Being Marginalized?

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1. Obama's audacious taxpayer-funded reelection campaign bus tour

Obama thinks we should pay for this reelection campaign bus tour because, in the now infamous words of Press Secretary Carney:

"He's the President of the United States."

You can see the "context" of Carney's comment here.

The political nature of Obama's trip so blatant that the biased media wing of the Democrats' party is not even trying to hide it:

The Voice of America calls the bus tour a "Three-State Counteroffensive."
Reuters refers to the bus tour as "campaign mode" and "unmistakable campaign style."
The Associated Press reports that Obama starts a "political counteroffensive this week."

The Republican National Committee has dubbed Obama's taxpayer-funded reelection campaign bus tour the RNC has dubbed the trip the "Debt-End Bus Tour," or "DEBT."

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Greyhound To Nowhere

A lot is wrong in Washington, DC. In response to these problems, President Obama has gotten out of town. He has gone on what RS Colleague, Dan Spencer accurately describes as a taxpayer funded campaign jaunt through Minnesota, Illinois and Iowa. He'll be out speaking from 15 to 17 August. The President can run, but he cannot hide. The problem is not primarily in Washington, DC. The problem is the very man who organized this Greyhound ride to nowhere.

He argues that he is presenting a new economic package to demonstrate his newfound focus on jobs.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Obama is a Big Black Cloud, says Ed Schultz

The below video from Breitbart.tv (h/t Larry O'Connor) shows one of the most blatant, race-baiting moments in recent memory. But not from the person MSNBC wants you to think it came from.

"That big black cloud that hangs over America, that debt that is so monstrous." – Rick Perry

"That black cloud Perry is talking about is President Barack Obama." – Ed Schultz

No Ed, the black cloud is "that debt", as the undoctored video shows. Even by MSNBC standards, this selective editing by Ed Schultz, expressly to paint Perry as a racist, is pretty appalling. The ostensibly-more-credible-than-Ed-Schultz ABC News' "The Note" blog also used the doctored quote (subsequently amended to clarify Perry was talking about the economy).

The fact that this is manufactured, however, didn't stop some guy at Loop21 saying "Let's hope he doesn't actually start "hanging" these big black clouds he speaks of." Hip Hop Wired ran an article titled "Governor Rick Perry Calls President Obama A "Big Black Cloud" which not only ran the doctored quote, but a completely manufactured one

White House reporter April Ryan tweeted: "Rick Perry's words 'a black cloud over this country.' He knows exactly what he is saying and appealing to. http://t.co/dd9epbl". And dozens more such tweets from all manner of tweeters on the left.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Ohio Business Owner Shot For Being Non-Union, Police Investigating

With around 25 employees, John King owns one of the largest non-union electrical contracting businesses in the Toledo, Ohio area. As a non-union contractor, his business happens to be doing well at a time when unions in the construction industry are suffering. This, it seems, has made the usual animosity unions have for him even greater, making him a prime target of union thugs. So much so, that one of them tried to kill him last week at his home.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. GOP Must Hold the Line Against Obama's ATM Politics With Free Trade

As Obama travels through America's heartland on his teleprompter tours bus, he is touting a new plan to create jobs. While he has offered few specifics thus far, Obama is calling for the ratification of the free trade agreements (FTAs) with Columbia, Panama, and South Korea as vehicles for job creation. The rest of his jobs (killing) plan will be released at some later date, possibly at the time when Huntsman releases his proposal.

This newfound support for free enterprise is quite perplexing, given that he has held the FTAs hostage for a pet welfare program, Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), since the day he became president.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Is Karl Rove Afraid of Being Marginalized?

Two nights ago Karl Rove started buzzing about Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and others getting into the 2012 race.

Yesterday morning, around 10:30, Karl took a shot at Rick Perry on Stuart Varney's show on Fox.

Karl Rove's political director for American Crossroads is now working for Mitt Romney. And the word among several reporter friends is that the reason Mitt Romney came out of the Mittness Protection Program when he did was because Rove and friends wanted him to start raising his profile in anticipation of a Perry entry.

So I'm wondering if Karl is worried about staying relevant should Perry gain too much momentum.

If so, Perry better watch out The attacks will come fast and furious.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Ed Schultz Is A Black Hole to Thinking #EERS

Tonight we're going to have a lot of fun with Ed Schultz's idiocy doctoring quotes. We're also going to take on President Obama's bus tour and Georgia redistricting.

Listen live at http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.