Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 60

Singapore Success? For Trump Yes.

Whether you like Trump or hate him, or whether you like him some days and hate him others depending on his whims, no other president could have pulled off such a meeting. The key was chemistry between two showmen who, after trading insults and a string of military provocations, both see that the road to oblivion is not very attractive for anybody. On the other hand peace after decades of technically a state of war will bring huge benefits to all and, important for showmen, will make them megastars of history.

Each has given ground. Kim has stopped firing missiles, testing H bombs and has blown up some probably past their usefulness testing facilities. His stock of nuclear bombs and missiles to carry them remains. Nobody knows how many of which. Trump has stopped military exercises, but retains the biggest nuclear battle fleet ever assembled on station in Korean waters.

So what is special about this? It has been this blog’s view that the art of western diplomacy has become obsessed with practice, but neglectful of outcome. Thus, since the end of the cold war practically nothing has been resolved and much of the benefit offered by the easing of east west tensions has been squandered. Since 9/11 everything has failed to deliver on the promise. An obsession with democracy as the answer to everything has prolonged civil war in Syria and turned Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan into failed states, demanding never ending involvement in trying to sort out the consequences. Perversely a refusal to accept democratic process as legitimate has prolonged the now unending division of Ukraine which looks set on a sixty year stint of its own.

So Trump promised he would do it differently. He bypassed professional diplomats, ignored protocols. He turned his back on regime change, fair elections and human rights as preconditions for even holding talks about talks. Instead he relied upon the chemistry of leader to leader contact to find common interest and mutual benefit. First it worked with China, now it has made a spectacular start with North Korea. Russia is next. This US President applies the same principles to deals he does not like and trade which is not balanced. His western allies have cried out in dismay and expressed disappointment and upset. He has told them to get stuffed.

The American people were at first unsure of what they had done in electing a maverick to the White house, but polls show increasing popularity as Trump puts America first. Many of his domestic policies are popular and appear to be offering economic growth, even if down the track, they bring new problems of their own. So everybody will have to get used to change in the way things happen, the way things are done and the way things are judged. because one thing is now for sure. Trump himself will not change.

 

 

Trump And The G7

Trump is an unusual President for many different reasons. Normally it is the case with politicians that you either support them or you oppose them. It is the nature of democracy that there must be both government and opposition. Trump is different. First of all he is not a politician and he has little time for politics. His style of leadership is that of the dictator. It is all about me and what I say goes, even if I said the opposite yesterday. Thus he gets on rather well with other leaders whose systems verge on or are actual dictatorships. And he quarrels all the time with all his allies, who represent a more collective notion of leadership and a more collegiate system of governing. Put simply he admires his enemies whilst his allies annoy him.

This blog therefore does not broadly oppose Trump as it does May, or broadly support him, as it does Corbyn. It has to pick and mix. So on social issues we are opposed to Trump hook, line and sinker. But on foreign policy we see some refreshing innovation. No other President has, or would have, brought so much hope to the Korean peninsular, or been willing to take a chance and meet with Kim Jon Un more or less on spec.

On the G7 the view from here is more nuanced. Yes Putin should be back there and it should be the G8 again. The business about ‘annexing’ Crimea is tripe. It has been Russian for centuries and is inhabited by Russians, 90% of whom voted to rejoin Russia on an 85% turnout. Trump, a realist who does reality TV, knows that. Europe is doing itself more harm than good keeping Russia in the cold over everything and on this Crimea issue in particular.

The reasons behind the US rust belt are more to do with lack of investment and inferior products, in the case of cars, and much less to do with unfair tariffs. The average tariff suffered by American exports is 4.5% and the average for the EU is 3.5%, so across the board this stuff about robbing the piggy bank is a delusion. What is not nonsense is the cost of NATO. Europe is not a continent bankrupt and ravaged by war any longer. It is a major, united and prosperous economic power. It should bear the costs of its own defence. Trump is right to complain. Europe now can, and should, stand on its own feet. America bankrolling military expenses is not only wrong but bad for Europe.

In the end whatever Trump wants will be the way he goes. What is in question is who and how many will follow him. At the moment this does not appear to include the G remaining 6. Maybe it is better that way. Either have America and Russia both in the deal, or neither.

 

Rail Chaos: Enough is More Than Enough

What is taking place on the railways is unforgivable. People who have to travel to work face stress enough in the modern world. They also, if buying rail season tickets, face excessive prices for poor service. Now in several parts of the country the service is disintegrating causing anxiety, suffering and exhaustion to innocent people, whose lifestyle, especially when it comes to family life, is in ruins. The economic cost is yet to be measured but it is bad.

And what is the government doing? Well for a start Downing Street has declared full confidence in the Transport Secretary. That will thrill the crowded platforms and burstingly overloaded trains. And what is the Transport Secretary doing? He has set up an inquiry to discover what went wrong. The answer to that question is simple and can be answered in a trice. He went wrong. And not for the first time. Sooner or later he will have to go.

In point of fact, so will they all.

Heathrow Runway: It will Never Happen

It is being trailed across the media that the Cabinet, meeting as I write this, will endorse the notion of a third runway at Heathrow. If it does, the idea has to get through parliament, by no means certain, before it will face challenges in the courts.

All this means that even if the government says yes, it will not happen. Because some things may be good or not. Governments may want them or not.  But overall the public opposition and legal complications are such that it is politically impossible to deliver them. The third runway at Heathrow is one of those ideas. In the end it will not happen. Whatever is said today.

Downfall In Downing Street: Download and Paperback

 

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

Download £2.08 ($2.51)    Paperback 8.99 ($12.99)    UK    US

    

Trump Hits Out At Allies

The sense of outrage among America’s closest Western allies over the imposition of steel tariffs is remarkable. The published language is the most critical of America for many decades and comes from all sides. The private language in the circles of power in unprintable. The EU, Canada and Mexico feel betrayed and bullied by a friend. Coming on top of NAFTA, Climate Change, Iran and Jerusalem there is a widespread sense that this friendship is no longer so special, nor can it be relied upon.

The Trump administration does not care. It has a different way of doing things and the evidence is piling up that it works. Threaten, talk, compromise, then profit. It worked in the opening phase with China, appears to be back on track with North Korea, but so far is not working in the West. Moreover this time there is an economic dimension which is a touch more complex than a property deal.

The reason that American steel jobs went away was because the country did not invest in new plant and technology and its steel product became noncompetitive and too expensive at home. China took advantage of the opportunity and Europe, including the UK, found new US customers all across both domestic and defense industries, for quality steel no longer produced in America. So tariffs, originally designed to stop Chinese dumping, will actually increase the cost of American manufacturing of everything from cars to planes. So for a long time ahead the cost will be borne by the US consumer and the US taxpayer.

Meanwhile the affected friends are imposing tariffs on a range of American manufactures and food products which will hit American heartlands which produce them. So unless Europe, Mexico and Canada cave in, this policy could go badly wrong. So expect Trump to come up with something.

He usually does. Then the questions are, will it dowse this flash in the pan? Or will it be a jump from the frying pan into the fire?

Disaster Response: Is It Good Enough?

It is clear that the response by the authorities to Grenfell came up short at almost every level. But it is also clear that minor events by comparison, like flash floods, leave those affected traumatised and often lacking the essentials of life.  There is a common complaint that although the emergency services are wonderful, the follow up is not. Often there are people doing helpful things about which victims either do not know or do not know how to access. This is especially the case for people without enough insurance. Even in high profile events like terror attacks, there are often victims left struggling with the aftermath, even if the response on the day was heroic.

Some countries have a dedicated Emergencies Ministry. This blog thinks we need one in the UK. Its function would be to mobilise and coordinate all the aid and response which is available from multiple  sources within government, business and charities, so that it is directed to where it is needed. Almost as important, some would say more so, is to provide a clear first point of call for victims.

Think about it.

Italy On The Brink

Italy is a great country. Italians are great people. They make great things like cars and fridges which we use and enjoy. They have wonderful cities and art treasures few can match. We love Italian food. We enjoy great holidays in Italy from the mountains to the beaches. But they have, for years, suffered from rotten governments. Now they are in a crisis, because the figurehead President will not accept the nomination for finance minister, from the non-elected prime minister, chosen by two minority parties in their bid try to forge a  majority, through coalition, in which neither leader becomes prime minister. Wow.

But at the heart of Italy’s problem is the Euro. The single currency lacks a democratic structure of governance, there is no finance minister or finance ministry and no economic policy shared among its members. The way it works is that the euro is, in practice, Germany’s currency shared by the other members. That is how the markets treat it or it would have gone long ago. It is the devalued D-mark, which has worked very well for Germany, paid for unification of the two German halves and made Germany a world economic power. It is also an up-valued franc, which has caused France economic pain with which it is just able to cope. But in Italy it is a very much upvalued lire, which has been a disaster, an economic ball and chain and fertile ground for the growth of excessive debt.

The spat with the pro euro Italian president is over the nomination of a finance minister who is anti-euro. There is now talk of impeachment or new elections. The future is uncertain. It may remain an Italian crisis or it could blossom into a full blown euro crisis. Italy is not Greece. It would be much, much bigger.

And the effect on Brexit? It could go one of two ways. The EU caught up in a euro crisis might be more accommodating to GB’s priorities, if and when the government can articulate them. Or the twenty-six may close ranks and say no concessions, because to offer them might weaken their whole project. In that event it is over the cliff Brexit. Then it would become the biggest peacetime  crisis the UK has ever faced.

There is a third way. We could abandon Brexit and go to Europe’s rescue. Not for the first time. But the option which, in the end, is in our very best interests. And Europe’s too.

Rejoice With Ireland

There was talk that it might be close. In the event is was a landslide to empower women to make their own choices about pregnancy and all its consequences. This is wonderful news and will stop so much heartache, suffering and guilt, let alone risk. From being one of the most conservative countries in Europe, dominated by the Roman Catholic Church, Ireland has now become one of the most enlightened. It has been a long process but at last the rights of women have trumped the cruel dogma of a seriously tarnished Church, revelations about which continue to surface and cause dismay.

With this wonderful breath of fresh air in the Republic, the attention of women now turns to the North. There is little doubt that sentiment  in Ulster is the same as the South, but the  DUP, propping up the tottering May government, is a total stranger to any concept of enlightenment about anything and stands in the way. Will May show courage or will she fudge it?  She has managed to fudge everything else.

Transatlantic Thriller

Dr. Rachael Benedict is an American historian and a best-selling author. She has a British connection through her estranged father Saul, an English thriller writer. Saul, whose parents were of Anglo-German origin, has spent much of his life plotting to expose secrets from World War Two, which are so sensitive they have been subject to an extensive cover-up lasting seventy years. As the time approaches for him to make his move to expose duplicity, murder and lies at the heart of the British State, he seeks Rachael’s help. This provokes a killing spree as parts of the security services of both Britain and the United States become engaged in the drama, with one side determined to get the secrets out and the other determined to keep them hidden.

Set equally in the United States and Britain, the narrative grips from the first page, transporting the reader to the heart of government both in Washington and London and on into the darkest corners of the secret states on each side of the Atlantic. Rachael battles forward to unearth the truth both from intrigues of the Nazi era, but also within her own family, surviving three attempts on her life, before finally achieving her goal. Not only does she expose the truth from history and from her own roots, she has to delve deep into her own emotions to find the truth about hers elf.

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