Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 206

Gripping Reads

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

English Nationalism Rising

Whatever the outcome of the Scottish referendum, there is coming to the  surface a phenomenon not seen since the end of world war two; English nationalism. Somehow England, as the predominant part of Great Britain, subsumed its identity into Britishness. Welsh and Scots remained so and also British. The Ulster protestants were a law unto themselves and Ireland had already broken away. It was as if England was like large people, conscious of their relative size to those around them, who are unassuming and shy. Whilst the Scottish referendum has awakened in the Scots a huge sense of Scottishness and political awareness, whatever the outcome, so it has awakened something in England.

In many ways this is a good thing, because if it happens that Scotland votes YES, England will have taken already the first subconscious steps to become again what it has not been since the days of Elizabeth I. For it was on her death that the Crowns were united and in those days that meant the governments also. But if Scotland votes NO it will find politics south of the border have changed. Instead of the usual mix of political ideologies,  it will be confronted with a new mix in which English assertiveness will count for much more than it ever did before. Whether Salmond finds himself negotiating for an independent Scotland in a currency union, or devo- max, having failed in his primary objective, what England is willing to agree to will trump what Scotland wants.

Books: Paperback or Download

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

 

Scottish Referendum: Down To The Wire

The polls are said to be too close to call,  although they lean towards NO. Referenda are notoriously difficult to poll, as each is individual and cannot be built on previous experience. We can recall that most people thought Quebec would vote to separate from Canada and it stayed. We also have the example of Australia, which almost everyone thought would vote to become a republic, and it decided to stay with the Queen. So we cannot guess where we will be on Friday; waving goodbye or welcoming home. Scotland alone must now decide.

The important thing is to be prepared for all eventualities. It appears we are prepared for none. We have meandered into uncharted territory without any clear idea of where we are supposed to be. The political class has badly failed the people and especially in England, where we will awake on Friday to a new era either as the best part of a diminished nation or the centre of some new federal structure. None of the details have yet been worked out and many are the conflicting interests to be resolved.

What should have happened is that there ought have been a  set of proposals agreed in advance for both the separation of Scotland and devo-max, including currency issues and which Westminster MPs will be allowed to vote for what. The Scots would then have been offered a clear set of prepared alternatives. Instead neither YES nor NO can answer any specific questions from voters in debates and other election exchanges on key issues which are critical. It is all wishful thinking and emotion. There are no level heads with hard facts. So on Friday we can be sure of one thing. There will be argument and confusion as issues are tackled. Certain is a period of uncertainty. Lest us hope it is no worse than that.

Bombing IS in Syria

It is absolutely essential for the Western coalition to get the Syrian government’s approval for any direct action against IS on Syrian territory. The Assad regime will give it gladly, since IS is its primary enemy. The time for squeamishness over taking to Assad and refusals to countenance a Syria with his regime in charge has long since gone in a plethora of misreadings and misjudgements. Things have moved on and it is the general consensus that this extremist combination of various branches of Sunni militancy is an evil to be stopped.

The web of so called allies is singular and likely to be ineffective. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States were the original source of IS funds. Turkey is rumoured to buy IS oil. The majority of IS fighters are Saudi. The alternative combination of the West, Iran, Syria, and Russia supported by a general mobilization of Shias and Kurds wherever they are domiciled, would guarantee a swift end to this menace. That would then allow negotiations with moderate Sunnis, who have been sucked in to supporting IS, so that they could have some territory to call their own.

This requires the West to overcome its differences with both Russia and Iran, neither of which pose a real threat and both of which have everything to gain economically from re-integrating sanction free with the global economy. To achieve this requires a broad strategic vision based upon the realities which are, rather than ideological aspirations which are not. In other words no more tribal politics and more statesmanship.

The alternative is to walk into the trap set by IS with its gruesome and cruel beheadings. Their idea is to lure the West into another conflict with opaque loyalties, unrealistic hopes and flawed strategy. This will lead to another Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya. Military intervention followed by insurgency in a self replicating cycle which could last a hundred years.

Read and Relax

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

 

Referendum: What About England?

Nobody knows for sure how Scotland will vote on Thursday. Nothing more useful can be said which is likely to affect the outcome. What will prove decisive is the persuasive power of individuals in communities across the country, within towns, villages, street and families. All are engaged. most have decided and the potential turnout looks as if it will be record breaking. On Friday Scotland will know whether it has taken the leap into independence or has won much greater devolution. Either way there will be winners. But in England?

In England there is no voting, nor has it been consulted, nor even properly told. If Scotland votes Yes it will be the biggest blow to English prestige since the loss of the American colonies, which became  the United States. Great Britain, a name coined, not to exude its imperial power, but to proclaim the national unity of the British Isles, will be great no longer. It will be almost entirely England. It will have lost one third of its land mass and ninety per cent of its oil and gas and fifty of its MPs. It will, on the world stage, look like something of a car crash. Its authority will be at the very least dented and its foreign policy in even more complicated knots. If Scotland can vote to leave the UK why cannot Crimea vote to leave Ukraine? Guess where that will come from.

But if, and it could be either tighter or easier than the polls suggest, Scotland votes to stay, England will undergo the biggest constitutional changes since the foundation of its parliamentary democracy. Yet there is no actual constitution. Most of it is based on precedent. But this is unprecedented. Moreover, nerve wracked party leaders from London, fearing the break up of the UK, have rushed north, making all manner of promises about powers and taxation which will have to be honoured, without any electoral mandate to do so. Does England get a say, a referendum of its own to agree to all this stuff? And what about Scottish MPs? Surely they cannot go on voting about what happens in England over devolved issues? Without Scottish MPs both Labour and the Lib Dems are electoral toast in the near term in England. This offers  the prospect of a  Labour government in the UK without a majority in England. In other words a set up where the Government has power in the UK, but the opposition governs in England where most of the population lives.

This fiasco could have been avoided with some care and thought and planning. It is a grotesque failure of the spin based, PR tained, Oxbridge educated political class. If change is needed anywhere, that is where to start. It’s called Clacton.

Good Reading

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

 

Scottish Referendum: Out Of Control?

There is passion and pride in the Scottish Referendum campaign, which has caught the attention of the world. This blog can think of no elections, and certainly none in Britain, which promises such a high turnout or such a cliff hanging result. Whenever it seems that the YES campaign is slipping back it surges forward. NO remains ahead but by so little that the grass roots passion of YES might bring it through next Thursday. Everybody is engaged from school children to tycoons. Nobody is any longer neutral except the Queen; that is her official position, but once again we all know that she is passionate about two political entities in the world, the Commonwealth and the Union.

Some remain undecided and some having decided and are wondering whether they might change. Some have voted already by post and wonder if they have made the right choice. The reason for this uncertainty is that neither campaign has really spelt out exactly what it is campaigning for. Of course it is clear in principle that one is for staying and the other is for going, but huge questions remain in the air. The complete absence of any coherent proposals for a currency, other than monetary union which would remove all of Scotland’s financial independence immediately, which is not on offer anyway, but which might  be offered if financial meltdown was in prospect, has spooked business, the markets and anybody who has really thought it through.

On the other hand the failure by NO to explain  what this Devo Max involves exactly is ridiculous. Is not made clear at all, not least because all the main political parties are offering a different version of it. All we have is a timetable for arriving at a conclusion, which is like writing a manifesto not before an election, but after it. So what is happening is that the streets have now taken control of this election and whatever the politicians say from now on will make no difference to the outcome. This is what Salmond is hoping, because he believes the streets will carry him to victory. At this point it is impossible to tell, if that happens, whether he will be remembered as the hero who led Scotland to freedom or the knave who plunged it headlong into the greatest disaster in its history.

What is now clear, and it is shocking, is that neither Edinburgh, nor London has thought the whole thing through, so YES or NO we are in  for a period of post referendum uncertainty. If Salmond wins it will be one thing and if he loses it will be another. And for the rest of the UK? On Friday it will discover whether it has lost one third of its land mass, or whether because of the changes inherent in the promises of all versions of devo max, England faces the biggest constitutional shake-up since the foundation of its democracy. All of it could be good news but a few errors of judgement, and there have been a lot of those already, could turn it into very bad news indeed.

4 Cracking Reads! Buy or Download

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com