Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 204

Read and Enjoy

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

Four Party Politics

The party conference season is over. There have been two seismic political shocks in bye-elections. The general election is seven months away. Nobody is able to predict the outcome. All of this is an unusual configuration of confusion as the first fixed term parliament lurches forward to its close. It is a moment to assess each of the political parties in turn.

THE TORIES

On the face of it it should be good news. Cameron won the conference line up hands down. The economy is growing. The party has pulled into a small lead in some polls. There are still problems to resolve but having succeeded thus far it must make sense to be allowed to finish the job, and to finish it with a majority avoiding the need to share with the Lib Dems.

If only that is where it stopped. But there is more. The economy may have peaked and actually be slowing by next May. The recovery has been much better for the rich than for the poor. The record numbers in work are earning less and their real pay value is falling year on year. Cuts are eating into efficiency and availability of public services, yet the deficit remains and so more cuts are promised. There has been a complete failure to solve key problems of immigration and the lack of and cost of housing. Foreign policy has all but unraveled, with failure in the Middle East and in handling Russia. The sanctions imposed on Putin and the resultant ban by Russia of agricultural imports is tipping Europe back towards recession. Storm clouds are building. The election climate was much better at the end of the fourth year than it will be at the end of the fifth.

Then there is UKIP.

LABOUR

Labour made a rapid recovery from a big bad defeat and has generally been a united and strong opposition riding high in the polls for most of this parliament. Its future ambitions are not to be returned to carry on the good work of opposition, but instead to get a mandate to govern. And this is where difficulties crop up. When looked at as potential prime minister and chancellor, the geeky Milliband and the derided Balls do not inspire confidence with their own Labour voters, let alone those who have to be won back in order to win power again.

These personality issues are underscored by the fact that there is no clear narrative of hope nor a plan for remedy for all that is so obviously awry. The economy, the NHS, public services, jobs, housing, the cost of living and immigration are all at the forefront of voters’ minds in varying degrees. So is the issue of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Yet nowhere is there to be found from Labour a Big Message or a Big Idea or a Big Plan to deal with it all. There are a string of tinkerings and tweaks but nothing new or different. So if it is all going to be much the same under the two Eds, are they up to it? If the polls are to be believed the answer could be NO.

Then there is UKIP.

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

Here things do not look good. There is no doubt that this party has performed well in coalition and its ministers have done their best and done it well. They have certainly acted as a restraint to the introduction of the raw meat of the Tory Right and have made Cameron’s government nearer the one nation Tory style of the nineteen fifties. They have managed to get quite a few of their populist policies like a much higher income tax allowance, free school meals and the pupil premium onto the statute books. But there was one promise they made, which was so special that they called it a pledge and they all signed it. This they broke. It was tuition fees. No young person will vote for them for a generation and without those votes they are electoral toast.

Yet they have one saving grace which means the party will not face oblivion, but will be reduced to a number of MPs nearer the teens than the eighty odd at their peak. The reason for this is that although the Lib Dems are a truly national party, people do not generally vote for them over national issues. Instead their support is grounded on local issues and local activists. Thus they are much more swing proof than the other main parties and polls do not reflect this local strength. This will save them. They will lose a lot of seats and loads of deposits but here and there they will hang on. As they always have.

UKIP will make no difference.

UKIP

Over twenty years of gestation this party has passed though a period of the fruitcake image and the far right extremists and become something more deadly than any political force since WWII. It now offers an exciting blend of nationalism, anti-EU, immigration, anti-establishment, anti Westminster elite, bankers, profiteers et al which inspires and thrills all those with a grumble about anything, right to left, rich and poor, north and south. There is a paucity of detail but a richness of vision. Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell are now the rain makers of British politics. The election will be fought to their agenda and on their terms. Anything can happen.

Like it or not UKIP will decide the outcome in 2015. They aim to hold the balance of power. The effort may sink them. Or they may become the power itself.

Human Rights Act

The news that this increasingly right wing Tory party, in flight from the UKIP attack, is now promising to unravel the Human Rights Act, has upset two of its most distinguished grandees and rightly so. Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke have been busy on the media expressing anxiety and dismay at the plans put forward by Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary.

Whatever the frustrations of Ministers over its application in cases they lose, we need this to stay in force for one very good reason which overrides all other considerations. We do not have a written constitution. This means that the constitution can be varied at any time by parliament. It is often an advantage to be able to do this; the Scottish referendum and the subsequent promise of rapid extensions to devolution are good examples.

But there is a shortfall and it is a big one. With a written constitution the terms are approved by the people in a referendum and provide a rule book not only guaranteeing their rights, but also the framework within which they are to be governed; rules for government which government cannot be varied without the specific authority of the people. With that kind of instrument underpinning the State, it could be argued that a Bill of Rights incorporated into it would be secure and binding, beyond the reach of parliament. But under the proposals put forward by Grayling, it is a fact that any legislation granting a Bill of Rights can readily be superseded by legislation from a later government to take it away.

That is why, while Britain remains one of only three countries in the world without a formal constitution approved by the people, they are guaranteed their freedoms by an instrument, the European Convention on Human Rights, which in the final analysis is beyond any government’s control. This is what ails the Tory right. Everyone else should see it as their ultimate guarantee of freedom.

Cameron or Milliband?

After the conclusion of the two big conferences Labour remains ahead in the polls, but only just and its lead is within the margin of error. If the issue were decided on conference quality, the Tories would win, not least because of their steadiness under fire from scandal and defections. If the issue were decided on the credibility, performance and popularity of the leaders, both within their parties and outside, it would be game set and match to Cameron. If it were decided on the credibility of which party has the better candidate for chancellor, there would be no contest. Should each team be lined up, it would stand out that Labour has more effective women, but the Tories have Teresa May. So why is Labour anywhere near the lead in any poll?

Is it all down to UKIP? Not at all, because UKIP is a manifestation of dissatisfaction with Tories about their party, which is now broadening its base to include Labour voters who feel the same about theirs. UKIP may also be reaching those who do not normally vote. The problem for the Tory party is best set down under three headings.

The first is that their obsession with home ownership inaugurated by Thatcher, has created a distorted economy where house price inflation and  the borrowing both by individuals and the government to keep up with it, not only created the crash, but has been used again by the Tories to build the recovery which thus cannot last. The shape of the economy is such that for the first time for centuries money is sucked from the poorest to give to the richest.

The second is that the party is split over Europe. We do not need to explore this; it is a fact well known. It is also a fact, as well known, that split parties rarely win.

Third is the Tory propensity to bribe electors with rash promises over tax which are difficult to fulfill.  Every economic commentator is today asking questions about how it is possible to cut the deficit and taxes at the same time. The answer is you cannot without cutting expenditure as well. To meet the Tory promise of eliminating the deficit plus a £12.500 threshold and  £50.000 before you get to pay higher rate tax, will require a £ 30 billion plus cut in government expenditure per annum. So far less than a third of that has been discussed so what are they hiding?

Out on the streets there is  distrust of politicians to the point where few take any notice of what they promise anyway. But it is on the streets that reality kicks in. And reality says that things are tough for the majority and likely to get tougher. When it comes to instinct the feeling out there is that Labour is on the side of people who are finding it tough, who are working very hard, yet struggling to get by. There are an awful lot of them. They pay no attention to big speeches or understand the complexity of the issues. They only know that under Cameron’s government the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer. They really do not care if Ed Milliband is a touch forgetful or that Ed Balls is a bit of a laughing stock, because inspite of these failings, they are still on their side.

That is why Labour is still just ahead and why the outcome for the Tories is by no means assured.

Hitler’s First Lady

Paperback or Kindle available now. Just click the links.

Lise Bauer is born in Africa in 1906, brought to England by her parents from where she is expelled with them in 1914, because her father is an East Prussian. They settle in America and become Americans, but return to Europe in the 1920’s. Here Lise is involved in the rise of the Nazi party, marries one of Hitler’s closest associates and later has a relationship with Hitler himself, before divorcing her husband and marrying an English friend of Hitler’s deputy, Rudolf Hess. The novel offers a new view of Hitler’s sexual relationships, a plot to overthrow Churchill and the flight to Scotland by Rudolf Hess. Using historical characters often portrayed in a new light, this fictional account challenges the accepted view of recorded history.   

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Four Good Books

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

Tory Conference: Steadied and Stalwart

Even the political enemies of the Tory party, and this blog is no friend (but nor is it to any of the political parties), the way the conference hit by scandal and defection has brushed it  off and turned the media focus back to what matters for it is remarkable. It is also good for Cameron, whose victory by a margin in Scotland and caution over the political minefield of involvement in IS air strikes has made him look like a prime minister in situ. This is in sharp contrast to Ed Milliband, the forgetful prime minister in waiting who looks as if he may have to wait until he is past his sell by date. But this is politics and nothing is predictable until it has happened.

What is perhaps predicable is this. UKIP will make the weather for 2015 when it comes to the actual vote. This will embolden Nigel Farage to suppose that the road out of the EU is open. Well it won’t be. Countless people fed up with the oily class of PR trained political professionals now dominating Westminster will vote UKIP without the slightest intention of voting to come out of Europe. Just as they swarmed in Scotland to Salmond to govern them, without intending to follow him out of the UK. There was a sizeable minority in Scotland who wanted out, but there was a significant majority who preferred the status quo, with all its faults.

When it comes to the EU referendum the same will happen in England. Wales and Scotland will definitely vote to say in as will Northern ireland because all gain far to much to walk away. They also have a big brother watching over them in Brussels in the benevolent sense; if they left they would be dominated by an increasingly right wing England, which none of them wants. So it will be down to the voters in England to decide the issue. While it is certain that English nationalism is on the rise, there is and will remain a silent majority who prefer the status quo of being part of the EU. History, especially one so steeped in blood to get to the point of European unity, cannot be turned back like a clock. It is like life, which teaches lessons, but only goes forward.

Of course there is Boris. But Boris is only good when he is winning. Losing, he begins to look like what many believe he is, a clown. That is  the comforting thought that helps Cameron to get a good night’s sleep. He tries to forget that Boris does not do losing.

Enjoy Good Reads

 

Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

Tory Meltdown

To describe the cascade of misfortune engulfing the Tory conference as unfortunate is to somewhat understate the case. Nevertheless all is not lost. Yet.

First of all defections alone will not sink a party unless they begin to turn from a trickle to a flood. So far there have only been two to UKIP. The resignation of a minister because of vulgar tweets or whatever is of absolutely no interest to the millions wondering how to pay their mortgage this month, so it is news to news gatherers and rubbish to everybody else. Nevertheless this could be the start of something worse and that thought kept many Tory strategists up late last night. The worst it could be, and this would be very bad indeed, is that it is the start of a sequence which the party cannot control.

Party conferences do not have the impact they once did, as this blog has already suggested. Once the activists were fired up, knowing that an election was imminent but not knowing when. A Prime Minister could leave the conference and call it there and then, so everyone everywhere had to be ready. Now we have (for the moment but perhaps not for long) fixed term parliaments so we already know the date and it is months away. Now nobody outside the party membership takes the slightest notice of these conferences anyway as most opinion is formed on the streets and through social media.

And that is the problem, because that is where control can slip away. This takes us to Clacton. If  UKIP put Carswell back to Westminster by the skin of his teeth, then the advance of UKIP will be slowed. If they send someone else UKIP is toast. But if, and many think they will, the voters push Carswell back with a landslide, then control of every lever of the General Election campaign passes to Farage and the nightmare for the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem high commands begins.

UK Air Strikes: Will They Help?

As Parliament debates this latest resort to the favoured tactic of air power intervening in yet another Middle East conflict, this Blog can do little more than exhort readers to go back over previous posts because most of what can be said has already been set down.

The key points are these. It is not possible to destroy ISIL as it will only morph into something even more bloodthirsty.It is possible to halt its advance and degrade its capability. At best this means it will be a contained threat either within its own territory, or in the territory it loses and which returns to whoever controlled it before. None of this is likely to increase or reduce the terrorist threat to the UK.

To achieve even that objective, the ludicrous diplomatic position, which prevents vain politicians on both sides of the Atlantic from admitting that they have tied themselves in knots with a failed policy in the middle east which has succeeded in imploding Iraq, Syria and Libya and put several others at risk, will have to be abandoned. The critical line up of allies of the West in the drive against ISIL is Iran, Shia Iraq, Assad’s Syria, the Kurds and Russia. The meddlers who conceived, funded and still support this frightening rampage of religious nihilism are Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Turkey buys ISIL oil. The moderate Sunni powers who can bring not only positive influence but also competent military assets to bear in support are Jordan and Egypt. The military power in reserve to stop things getting out of hand in the Lebanon and Western Syria theatres is Israel.

In that context the inclusion of British air assets in the battle, though potentially spectacular, is much more of a political event than it is a military one. It is said the RAF will deploy six fighter bombers for this mission. A single US aircraft carrier of the Nimitz class deploys about sixty.