Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 20

Election 2019: Now We Wait

The country is at last voting after a campaign which lacked sparkle, like the turbulent weather and short winter days. The darkness matching the dark mood in the country. Polls tell us to expect more Johnson Getting Brexit Done. They do not tell us what exactly that means nor, having technically set off from the EU, where we shall actually wind up.

But how good are the polls with five parties in play nationally, plus regional parties in the three not England nations of our Union? And one massive cross party question about leaving the EU as well as individual party visions of what kind of country we want to live in? Is Brexit everything, or are things like the wreck of our public services, affordable housing, the NHS, an unfair economic model based on asset inflation benefitting the few at the expense of wealth creation for the many, issues which count too?

As the night wears on we shall find the answers. In the morning perhaps we shall find a nation coming together. Or one more divided than ever.

And angrier too.

How Far Left Is Boris?

Far further left than you think. He is neither Tory nor socialist. He is a populist. Which means he is first about Boris and next about ordinary people. He is from the establishment in wealth and education, but far too maverick to be part of it in the embedded sense. His entire Downing Street machine is anti-establishment. And if he wins it will be because very large numbers of working class people, who deserted from Labour in the New Labour Blair days, will have voted for him. Not for the Tories, but for him. Because of Brexit, but also because they believe that Brexit will improve their lives and resolve all that has gone wrong for them.

And because of that they will have very grand expectations, which cannot be met by any more austerity, nor timid spending plans. His new northern voter base will have priorities which are real, deserving and urgent.  Boris will have to step up to the plate.  So if there is a Tory majority next Friday morning, you can expect the most left wing government of that party, since the days of Harold Macmillan. Socially conservative maybe, but economically Keynesian, with a lot of spending and loads of borrowing. Austerity looks to be over whichever way this election goes. Thatcherism is already dead.

This assumes that those northern Labour heartlands swing behind the Conservatives rather than frittering votes on the defunct Farage. If they don’t and on the day stick with Labour, Boris will have to hold all the Remain seats of the south to keep his job.  That might be a good deal easier said than done.

Election 2019: Time To Come Off The Fence

With a few days to go it is time for undecided voters to make up their minds how they are going to cast their vote and time for tribal voters to reaffirm their loyalty to their party, or to desert it for a greater good. It is also time for this blog to stick its neck out for the benefit of loyal readers. So here goes.

At the moment conventional reading of conventional polls indicate a working majority for Johnson, the size depending on the poll. Corbyn can still close or narrow the gap if over the last week reforming the economy, in favour of the many, edges ahead of Brexit, in the public consciousness of what they are voting for. But so close to the day, that is quite a big if.

But it is also the key. For if Brexit dominates, tactical voting will be used, possibly more than in any previous election, having peculiar and unexpected consequences in different parts of the country for different reasons. That could easily result in a lot of seats changing hands, but with thrilling gains for major parties here, being cancelled by shock losses there. So we end up again with the same arithmetic in parliament, but new faces. In that event if Johnson does not have a majority it could end with Corbyn in Downing Street at the head of a minority government backed by all the remain components of the new parliament. Because in the end  Remain leaning parties will work with Labour but not with Boris. He is on his own and has to triumph over all comers.

He thinks he can. His backers hope he can, but are getting nervous. If you look at totals of Tory plus Brexit party against Lab/Lib Dem, Green, the latter are always just ahead. Meanwhile in camp Corbyn hopes remain high that Labour’s final advance will peak on polling day and spring a 2017 style surprise.

There is still everything to play for.

NATO: Brain Dead? No But……

NATO was set up to confront the Soviets and prevent the Communist superpower advancing West. Stalin had managed to occupy and retain half Germany and all of Eastern Europe at the end of WWII. When the Soviet Union collapsed, its own defence treaty organisation collapsed too. The Warsaw Pact was disbanded.

NATO was designed to deter and defend, not to frighten and provoke. The Warsaw Pact was an instrument of conquest.  So when it was disbanded it might have been best to disband NATO. But no, too many general’s careers and defence contracts would have gone up in smoke, so it was decided to keep it going to counter anything happening in the world which nominally threatened its members. New threats did develop and engagement in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Libya followed and, notably, Iraq One but not Iraq Two.

Unfortunately NATO, in a rather triumphalist mood, expanded East, absorbing several ex WP members, until almost at the Russian border. This both threatened and provoked and Russia has been a troublesome partner on the world stage as a consequence. The mistake was not to recognise that with the fall of the Berlin Wall, all Europe was now one and Russia was in fact a European power. There were just two options for a secure outcome. Disband NATO when the Warsaw Pact fell, or keep it going, but with Russia in it. A third option was to keep it going and exclude Russia. That was the one chosen. Now the challenge is to clear up the mess resulting.

Rail Strikes Make The Case For Nationalisation.

What a mess. In the run up to Christmas we are once again faced with rail strikes which make commuting exhausting and stressful while infuriating everybody except the obdurate franchise holders and the incompetent Tory government, under whose bizarre free enterprise or bust ideology they function.

The RMT has right on its side. Every train must and should have a guard, train manager, or whatever you like to call this important official, who is needed for both safety and security reasons. Imagine the problems for women and girls suffering harassment, passengers being taken ill, some mishap boarding or leaving, without there being anyone to turn to for help. The driver is responsible for driving the train with the lives of passengers in their hands. They cannot supervise the interior of the train as well. The whole idea is just a cost cutting exercise at the expense of passengers, already overcharged because the railways are organized to an irrational model favoring profit over investment and shareholders over passengers.

Labour is on to a vote winner here with its nationalisation plan and it knows that.

Election 2019: An Interesting Day

The Tory media feeding frenzy on Corbyn is in full cry. This is because Tory canvassers are reporting disquiet on working class and suburban doorsteps, votes they must win, lukewarm about their own safety first manifesto. Meanwhile in spite of the attacks on him on every front and ridiculing of his every appearance, Labour maintains an upward trajectory, as its own manifesto gains increasing support. Not yet enough for a Labour win but getting near to stopping a Tory majority, or one big enough to work with. With tactical voting among hard core remainers and leavers, the polls may be meaningless anyway.

But every time Corbyn is asked five times in a row a question designed to produce a soundbite to make the interviewer feel good and get a headline, Corbyn is able to repeat his key message again and again. And while the media go into overdrive about Corbyn refusing to answer a question, voters if they bother at all, remember not the question but Corbyn’s programme for solving their problems brought home by years of austerity.

Then we have the revelation (which delvers knew already) that in technical talks with the US about the wonder trade deal Boris promises, the NHS is very much on the agenda of things America want access to. It is a must do for them and even if Trump in an effort to help Boris his friend, waived the demand, Congress which has to approve every line of the deal, would put it back in. So the chances of a full trade deal are near to zero. Individual agreements involving importing chlorinated chicken and genetically modified crops in exchange for luxury cars, for example. But no all embracing deal.

Set against Boris’s hard Brexit plan with its border, invisible to him, but an obstacle to every sort of smooth trade, down the Irish Sea, his slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’ will begin to pose its own question.

Why would anyone want to do that?

And also today a record number, up on 2017, registered to vote within the deadline, bringing the total to over 3 million. 70% of whom are under 34, the majority of whom are statistically Remainers and likely to vote anything but Tory. So it is not over yet. Indeed it is getting really interesting.

Election 2019: Religion and Politics.

It is very unsatisfactory if faith leaders from whatever calling enter into the political debate, the more so when the country is polarised, angry and in the midst of an unprecedented election. Especially if it is directed at specific parties or individuals. Whatever the provocation and however justified the observation or complaint is,  such interventions risk religion and politics becoming entangled. When that happens everyone loses. It is a road to a very bad place. Do not go down it. However strongly you feel.

Election 2017: Now The Contest Becomes Real

With the Manifestos all out, the contest will  begin to move beyond the soundbite/ cheap headline stage to real issues. If the Tories manage to hold the Brexit line, that is getting it done is everything and little else matters, they will win a majority. At the moment polls show them on course for this. But none of the polls reflect any of the manifestos, because they only begin to break through during the doorstep campaign, which is only now starting in earnest.

If the big issue becomes ‘what kind of country do we want to live in?’ Labour will win enough to form a government, even if with SNP support. They have a lot of ground to make up, but they also have a lot of people on the ground. They also have a big following among young voters who are registering in droves. None of that shows up in opinion polls. Yet. But it must be showing through in the last week if Labour is to have a chance.

The Lib Dems are probably doing a lot better than people think. If Remainers who really are passionate about staying in the EU flock to their colours in any numbers, there could be quite an upset on the night. Maybe not so many Lib Dem seats won, as Tory seats lost. Remember over 6 million signed the online petition to revoke Article 50. It would be odd if they now voted for Johnson.

The Brexit party is reduced to little more than a spoiler group. But make no mistake, they could spoil everything.

Election 2019: Corbyn’s Neutrality

Jeremy Corbyn is entirely right to adopt a neutral position in a Brexit referendum, if he becomes prime minister. Harold Wilson did just that in 1974. His cabinet split, as did the country, but after the result everyone was united behind the outcome to accept the revised terms of membership and remain in what was then the  EEC.

In 2016 Cameron led the remain campaign and felt compelled to resign when he lost. If he had remained neutral, he could and would have implemented the decision, beginning by sending his Article 50 letter as he promised to do, the day after the results were declared. It is very likely that the whole thing would have been handled under the royal prerogative without the Supreme Court challenge.

Instead we have suffered the worst breakdown in governance in our democratic peace time history, splitting communities, families, political parties and the whole nation, which threatens the Union and promises years of continuing uncertainty.We are now on our third prime minister without having completed Brexit and could be heading for a fourth. Brexit, under the control of the Tory party, who instigated the whole ill starred and badly prepared venture has been a shambles. Corbyn is now decried by them for ‘sitting on the fence’ and not ‘leading’ from the front.

We have had far too much hot headed leadership. What we now need is wise governance. Corbyn must stand his ground. I am sure he will.

Election 2019: At Last There Is A Real Choice

Regular readers will know how much I disapprove of centre politics, which I regard as a quagmire of self interest, lack of vision and kicking the can down the road on almost everything which demands more than a sound bite or a quick fix. There must be a dynamic left and a reactionary right. Either can govern and both have to move towards the centre in government, because in the end a degree of public consensus is needed to achieve anything that lasts.

But the centre is not where the drivers are. For far too long this country has been in the grip of an appalling political inertia which has allowed the development of a grotesquely misshapen economy, in which the rich grow ever richer and the poor grow poorer. A vast new class of just managing has arrived where work is undervalued and assets are overvalued. Asset inflation partners wage stagnation. It has to stop.

And for far too long the ordinary people of our country, on whom every facet of civilised life and care relies, have had no choice, because in the end, apart from a different tribal T shirt, there was precious little difference between the offers of the political parties. Until yesterday.

The Labour Manifesto offers a totally different vision of quite different future, based on different values, bigger ambitions, the rebuilding of all public services shattered by years of outsourcing and cuts and the biggest investment programme in everything we need to expand our economy for many generations. It is a transformative offer. Not a renovation, but a rebuild. No longer can anyone excuse not voting with a dismissive ‘they are all the same.’

When I published my dissertation Turn Left To Power in May 1916, prior to the Brexit referendum the conclusion seemed to most fanciful.

‘An economic settlement which gives  the top one per cent as much as the other ninety-nine percent combined, cannot sustain and is not acceptable. Almost everything which has happened since Thatcher has favoured capital over labour. Yet without labour, capital is nothing. The Labour Party must live up to its name, stop dancing on a sixpence in the political centre, rediscover its reforming zeal and show that it has a radical programme which will restore the balance.’

At last the Labour Party has done just that. The people must decide if they want to take up the offer.