Anndy Lian's Blog, page 17

The inflation ripple effect: From Wall Street to cryptocurrency to Washington

Anndy Lian
The inflation ripple effect: From Wall Street to cryptocurrency to Washington

The story begins with the latest inflation report, a document that has sent shockwaves through financial markets worldwide. In June, the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 2.7 per cent year-over-year, surpassing economists’ estimates of 2.6 per cent.

Core inflation, which strips out the often erratic swings in food and energy prices, held steady at 2.9 per cent year-over-year, aligning with expectations. At first glance, these numbers might seem like mere statistics, but they carry profound weight.

Inflation is the heartbeat of an economy, and the Federal Reserve monitors it closely to calibrate interest rates. When prices rise too quickly, the Fed might tighten policy to cool things down; when they lag, it might ease rates to spur growth.

This time, the higher-than-anticipated headline CPI signals that tariff-related price pressures are starting to bite, pushing out hopes for rate cuts this year.

This development is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reflects the real-world impact of trade policies, like tariffs, which ripple through supply chains and hit consumers in the wallet.

On the other hand, it complicates the Fed’s delicate balancing act. With inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s two per cent target, the central bank faces pressure to keep rates elevated, a stance that could dampen economic momentum just as growth shows signs of faltering.

Analysts I’ve followed suggest that earlier optimism for rate cuts this year is fading rapidly, replaced by a resigned expectation that the Fed will hold firm to prevent inflation from deepening. This shift is significant because it affects everything from mortgage rates to corporate investment, shaping the economic landscape for months to come.

Market reactions: A tale of divergence

The markets didn’t take this news lying down. In the US, the reaction was a study in contrasts. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.4 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a steeper hit, falling 1.0 per cent. Yet the NASDAQ, defying the gloom, edged up by 0.2 per cent, buoyed by reports of resumed chip sales to China.

This split fascinates me. It shows how different sectors digest the same data differently. The tech-heavy NASDAQ likely received a boost from the chip news, a lifeline for semiconductor firms in a tense trade environment. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 and Dow, with their mix of industries, seemed more rattled by inflation’s implications for interest rates and costs.

The bond market echoed this unease. US Treasuries stumbled, with the 10-year yield rising 4.8 basis points to 4.481 per cent and the two-year yield climbing 4.0 basis points to 3.940 per cent. Higher yields signal that investors are seeking a higher return for holding government debt, a classic response to inflation fears or expectations of tighter monetary policy.

I see this as a sign of markets bracing for a Fed that’s less dovish than hoped, a shift that could ripple into borrowing costs everywhere.

Currency markets told a similar story. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against major currencies, surged 0.6 per cent to 98.62, its highest level in three years. This strength makes sense: if the Fed holds rates steady while others cut, the dollar becomes a magnet for capital.

In contrast, the Japanese Yen slumped 0.8 per cent to 148.88, its weakest level since early April, as it was dragged down by a sell-off in Japan’s bond market. To me, this divergence highlights the interconnected yet fragmented nature of global markets, which each react to local cues within a shared economic web.

Across the Pacific, Asia offered a mixed bag. China’s real GDP growth remained steady at 5.2 per cent year-over-year, a respectable figure; however, nominal GDP growth declined to 3.0 per cent, the slowest pace since 2023. June data painted a grimmer picture: retail sales slowed, fixed asset investment weakened, and home prices and property investment took a deeper dive.

Yet Hong Kong’s tech stocks shone, driving regional gains even as Asian equity indices wavered in early trading. I find this resilience in tech intriguing, a glimmer of optimism amid China’s broader economic clouds. It suggests that investors still see value in innovation, even when domestic demand falters.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency market, which has taken a bruising. US-listed crypto stocks like Canaan Inc., down over 10 per cent, Circle, off nearly five per cent, and Riot Platforms and CleanSpark, each shedding more than three per cent, felt the heat.

Big names like Coinbase, Robinhood, and MicroStrategy weren’t spared either. This sell-off, sparked by the CPI data and the Fed’s steady-rate stance, stripped away a hoped-for boost for Bitcoin.

I’ve always viewed crypto as a wild card: touted as an inflation hedge, yet hypersensitive to interest rate shifts. Here, higher rates made safer assets, such as bonds, more appealing, dimming the allure of crypto. It’s a reminder of how volatile this space remains, tethered to macroeconomic tides.

Political drama: The GENIUS Act’s stumble

While markets churned, Washington delivered its drama. The US House of Representatives hit a wall when a procedural motion to advance the GENIUS Act, alongside the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act, failed with 196 votes in favour and 222 against. Dubbed “Crypto Week,” this was intended to be a landmark moment for crypto regulation, but it ultimately ended in a stalemate.

The GENIUS Act, short for “Generating Efficient Networks for Innovation and Utility in Stablecoins,” aims to clarify the rules for stablecoins, digital currencies tied to assets such as the US dollar. The CLARITY Act aims to clarify the legal standing of crypto, while the Anti-CBDC Act opposes the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). These bills could shape America’s crypto future, either fostering innovation or reining it in.

The snag came from within the Republican ranks. Some GOP lawmakers balked at the GENIUS Act’s lack of a full CBDC ban, fearing it left room for a digital dollar they see as a privacy nightmare. Marjorie Taylor Greene voiced this worry, arguing the bill indirectly props up a CBDC framework, a sentiment echoed by others in her party.

This internal rift derailed the vote, despite President Donald Trump’s plea to support the bill and solidify US crypto leadership. His words fell flat, exposing a GOP at odds with itself.

Democrats, led by Maxine Waters, pounced. They mocked Republican disarray and doubled down on their opposition to the GENIUS Act, citing insufficient safeguards and risks of unchecked financial experimentation. Their earlier “Anti-Crypto Corruption Week” had already telegraphed this stance.

To me, this clash is more than partisan theatre. It’s a microcosm of a bigger struggle: how to regulate a technology that’s outpacing policy. I lean toward clarity in regulation, believing it could unlock crypto’s potential while curbing its excesses. But I get the skepticism, too, the fear of opening Pandora’s box without knowing what’s inside.

My take

Economically, the inflation spike and the Fed’s response signal more challenging times ahead. I worry about the squeeze on households and businesses if rates remain high, yet I see the logic in taming inflation before it spirals out of control.

Markets, with their choppy reactions, reflect this uncertainty, a tug-of-war between fear and opportunity. In Asia, China’s slowdown hints at deeper structural woes, though tech’s tenacity offers hope.

Politically, the GENIUS Act’s flop is a missed chance, but it’s not the end. I think the US risks falling behind if it can’t sort out crypto rules soon, especially as other nations race ahead. The GOP’s split and Democrats’ resistance highlight how ideology and caution can stall progress. I’d argue for a middle path: regulate enough to protect, but not so much as to stifle. Trump’s vision of crypto dominance is bold, but it needs a united front to work.

Looking forward, the Fed’s next moves and Congress’s retry on crypto will be pivotal. Markets will stay jittery, and I suspect volatility is our new normal.

For now, we’re left with questions: Can the US balance economic stability and innovation? Will political will align with technological reality? I’ll keep digging for answers, but one thing’s clear: this week’s turbulence is just the start.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-inflation-ripple-effect-from-wall-street-to-cryptocurrency-to-washington-20250716/

The post The inflation ripple effect: From Wall Street to cryptocurrency to Washington appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

코인베이스, 트럼프와 바이낸스 겨냥 의혹 확산…업계 ‘정보전’ 조짐

Anndy Lian
코인베이스, 트럼프와 바이낸스 겨냥 의혹 확산…업계 ‘정보전’ 조짐

암호화폐 업계를 뒤흔든 블룸버그 단독보도와 관련해, 코인베이스($COIN)가 트럼프 대통령과 바이낸스(Binance)를 동시에 겨냥한 의혹의 배후로 지목되면서 논란이 가열되고 있다. 논란은 유명 암호화폐 해설가 매트 월리스가 코인베이스가 블룸버그에 내부 정보를 제공했다는 발언을 SNS에 올리면서 시작됐으며, 바이낸스 전 CEO 창펑 자오(CZ)도 해당 게시글을 리트윗하며 주목을 더했다.

월리스는 “코인베이스가 바이낸스의 미국 시장 재진입을 두려워해 트럼프 대통령의 암호화폐 프로젝트와 바이낸스를 무너뜨리려 했다”고 주장하며, 이를 ‘반미적 행동’이라고 평가했다. 해당 주장에 따르면, 창펑 자오가 트럼프에게 사면을 요청하며 정치적 거래 가능성이 수면 위로 떠올랐고, 이를 블룸버그가 특종으로 보도한 것이라는 해석이다. 보도는 트럼프 대통령이 암호화폐 발행사 월드리버티파이낸셜(World Liberty Financial)의 스테이블코인 USD1의 배경에 바이낸스가 관여했다고 지적하며, USD1 토큰 상당량이 현재도 바이낸스 지갑에 보관돼 있다는 내용을 담고 있다.

하지만 코인베이스 측은 이 같은 주장에 강력히 반발했다. 폴 그레월(Paul Grewal) 코인베이스 법무총괄은 자신의 X(구 트위터) 계정에서 해당 의혹을 “전적으로 허위 정보”라고 일축하며, 블룸버그 보도에 단 한 발언도 제공한 적이 없다고 밝혔다. 이어 “경쟁사를 공격하지 않으며, 암호화폐 생태계 전체의 성장을 원할 뿐”이라며 음모론에 선을 그었다.

이와 별도로, 암호화폐 업계 자문역 안디 리안(Anndy Lian)은 블룸버그 보도의 신빙성에도 의문을 제기했다. 그는 익명의 소스를 기반으로 한 보도가 아무런 물증도 없이 정치적 사건을 악용했다고 평가했으며, 바이낸스와 트럼프 대통령 간 뚜렷한 정책 연계 증거도 없다고 지적했다. 리안은 바이낸스의 USD1 관련 활동이 업계 관행을 벗어나지 않는 범위라고 덧붙였다.

바이낸스 전 대표 창펑 자오는 지난해 미국 당국과의 합의 후 CEO직을 사임한 이후로 공식석상 활동을 자제해왔다. 그러나 지난 5월, 그가 트럼프 대통령에게 공식 사면 요청을 제출했음을 직접 확인하면서 다시금 주목을 받았다. 그는 유죄 판결을 받은 유일한 BSA(은행비밀법) 위반 사례로 자신을 언급했으며, 바이낸스 경영 복귀는 없다고 명확히 선을 그었다.

 

Source: https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/266864

The post 코인베이스, 트럼프와 바이낸스 겨냥 의혹 확산…업계 ‘정보전’ 조짐 appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Market dynamics: Equity gains, yield shifts, dollar strength, commodity dips, and crypto highs

Anndy Lian
Market dynamics: Equity gains, yield shifts, dollar strength, commodity dips, and crypto highs

The overriding theme in today’s markets is a subdued global risk sentiment, driven largely by President Trump’s aggressive tariff threats. He’s put the world on notice, warning of 100 per cent “secondary” tariffs on any country that continues to do business with Russia unless there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine within 50 days.

This bold move is a clear escalation in the US’s strategy to pressure Russia into de-escalating its ongoing conflict, but it’s also a high-stakes gamble that could backfire by targeting nations that trade with Russia, potentially including major players like China, India, or even some European countries.

Trump is risking a disruption of global supply chains and a wave of retaliatory measures. The European Union isn’t sitting idly by; it’s already gearing up to deepen ties with other affected nations, such as Canada and Japan, to forge a coordinated response. This could mean joint diplomatic efforts or even counter-tariffs, adding yet another layer of complexity to an already tense situation.

From my vantage point, this feels like a geopolitical chess game where every move could either stabilise or destabilise the global economy further. The 50-day deadline adds urgency, and I suspect markets will remain jittery as we approach that critical juncture.

Despite this uncertainty, US equities have managed a modest rebound, which tells me investors are trying to find a silver lining amid the storm clouds. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.1 per cent gain, the NASDAQ climbed 0.3 per cent, and the Dow Jones rose 0.2 per cent. These aren’t blockbuster numbers by any stretch, but they suggest a cautious optimism or perhaps a calculated bet that the tariff threats won’t fully materialise.

I think part of this resilience stems from faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability to navigate inflationary pressures or hope that diplomatic backchannels might soften the blow. However, the muted gains also hint at lingering unease. Investors are clearly hedging their bets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see sharper swings in the coming weeks as more details emerge about the tariff plans and international reactions.

Switching gears to the bond markets, US treasuries took a hit, with yields ticking higher in a way that’s caught my attention. The 10-year yield rose 2.4 basis points to 4.433 per cent, while the two-year yield edged up 1.5 basis points to 3.900 per cent.

This uptick was partly influenced by a curve-steepening selloff in Japanese government bonds, which seems to have set a ripple effect across global sovereign debt markets. With no major US economic data releases to anchor sentiment, external factors like Japan’s bond dynamics are taking the lead.

A steepening yield curve typically signals expectations of stronger growth or rising inflation, but in this context, I see it more as a reflection of investor nerves about the tariff fallout. Higher yields could make borrowing more expensive and weigh on growth if the trend continues, something I’ll be watching closely as the situation unfolds.

Then there’s the US Dollar Index, which is on a tear with an eight-day winning streak—the longest since February, adding a 0.2 per cent gain to its run. At first glance, this strength makes perfect sense: the dollar often shines as a safe haven when geopolitical risks flare up, and Trump’s tariff saber-rattling fits that bill.

But I think there’s more to it. The US economy still looks relatively robust compared to its peers, and the prospect of higher interest rates here versus, say, Europe or Japan is keeping the greenback in demand.

From my perspective, this dollar rally could amplify the tariff impact by making US exports pricier and imports cheaper, potentially widening trade imbalances. It’s a double-edged sword that could either bolster US leverage or stoke further tensions with trading partners.

Commodities, meanwhile, are painting a mixed picture that’s worth digging into. Gold, the classic refuge in times of trouble, slipped 0.4 per cent to US$334 per ounce, which surprised me given the geopolitical backdrop. I suspect profit-taking is at play here, investors cashing in after a strong run rather than abandoning the safe-haven narrative altogether.

Brent crude, on the other hand, dropped 1.6 per cent to US$69 per barrel, and that feels more tied to fundamentals. If tariffs spark a trade war or slow global growth, demand for oil could soften, and that’s likely what’s spooking the energy markets.

I’d wager we’re also seeing some speculative unwinding after recent volatility. Both moves underscore how sensitive commodities are to shifts in risk sentiment, and I’ll be keeping an eye on whether these declines deepen or reverse as tariff news evolves.

All of this brings us to two pivotal events on the horizon: today’s US inflation data and the start of major bank earnings reports. The inflation numbers are the big ones, everyone’s eager to see if Trump’s tariff threats are already pushing up final goods prices. If we get a hot reading, say above the expected 2.6 per cent year-over-year for the Consumer Price Index, it could jolt the Fed into a more hawkish stance, maybe even accelerating rate hikes.

That’d be a game-changer for equities, bonds, and the dollar. On the flip side, a tame report might ease some nerves and buy time for diplomatic solutions. As for the bank earnings, from giants like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, I’ll be scouring their outlooks for clues about how they’re bracing for tariff risks or higher rates.

Any whiff of caution could drag sentiment lower, while upbeat forecasts might fuel a rally. My gut tells me these reports will be a mixed bag, reflecting the uncertainty we’re all grappling with.

Now, let’s talk about the wild card in this whole saga: cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin just smashed through US$120,000, peaking at US$122,404 with a 2.8 per cent daily gain and a 10 per cent surge over the past week. This rally, turbocharged since Trump’s election win, is riding a wave of excitement about new US legislation that could cement America’s status as the “crypto capital.”

Lawmakers in the Republican-led House are set to debate three bills this week: the Genius Act, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. These could streamline regulations, clarify stablecoin rules, and push digital assets deeper into mainstream finance. Ether hit US$3,081.94, its highest since February, and XRP jumped 2.7 per cent, lifting the crypto market’s total value to US$3.8 trillion, per CoinMarketCap data.

I see this as a fascinating counterpoint to the tariff gloom, a sign that some investors are betting big on a parallel financial system less tethered to traditional risks. If these bills pass, we could see crypto’s momentum accelerate, though I’m wary of a pullback if regulatory hopes fizzle.

My take on all this is that the tariff headlines are casting a long shadow, muting global risk appetite and forcing markets into a defensive crouch. There’s resilience too: US stocks are holding up, the dollar’s flexing its muscles, and crypto’s soaring on its own trajectory.

I think the next few weeks will be defining. If the tariff threats escalate into action and inflation spikes, we could see a sharper risk-off move, think falling equities, surging yields, and a choppier dollar. But if cooler heads prevail, or if the Fed signals steady support, markets might muddle through with minimal damage.

The crypto boom adds an intriguing twist; it’s almost like a barometer of faith in innovation amid chaos. For now, I’d advise investors to stay nimble, watch the data, and brace for volatility because in this environment, the only certainty is uncertainty itself.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-dynamics-equity-gains-yield-shifts-dollar-strength-commodity-dips-and-crypto-highs-20250715/

The post Market dynamics: Equity gains, yield shifts, dollar strength, commodity dips, and crypto highs appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Coinbase Denies Bombshell Claim it Fueled Trump-Binance Hit Piece

Anndy Lian
Coinbase Denies Bombshell Claim it Fueled Trump-Binance Hit Piece

Tensions in the crypto sector escalated over the weekend following allegations that Coinbase was the unnamed source behind a Bloomberg report scrutinizing Donald Trump’s crypto project, World Liberty Financial, and Binance.

Coinbase exec, however, has denied the allegations.

Allegations Stir Crypto Rivalries

Crypto commentator Matt Wallace claimed on X that Coinbase executives were concerned that a potential pardon for Binance’s former CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao could clear the way for his return. He alleged they attempted to undermine the crypto exchange out of fear that its re-entry into the US market would threaten Coinbase’s market share.

Wallace described Coinbase’s alleged targeting of Trump as “anti-American,” and added that the company’s leadership viewed Binance’s legal return as a direct threat to their business. The post was later reshared by Zhao, who neither confirmed nor denied the claims but indicated that he may consider legal action against Bloomberg for defamation.

Bloomberg’s report had detailed Binance’s involvement in creating the smart contract for USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, while linking Zhao to a request for a presidential pardon shortly after the token featured in a multibillion-dollar UAE investment deal with Binance. The report further stated that a significant share of USD1 tokens remains in Binance wallets, which suggests potential interest earnings for the exchange.

Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, responded directly to Wallace’s accusations on X and called them “pure misinformation.” He also asserted that Coinbase had no involvement in providing information to Bloomberg.

“We don’t attack competitors, and we welcome any businesses that share our goal of growing the crypto pie. You should keep looking for an actual source.”

“Standard Collaboration, Not Corruption”

The episode has drawn significant attention from industry players. Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian also criticized Bloomberg’s report on Binance and Trump. In a post on X, Lian noted the article relied on anonymous sources without concrete evidence of payments or explicit coordination between Trump and CZ.

He argued the piece exploited a national tragedy for political narratives and lacked a factual basis. He also added that the crypto exchange’s activities align with industry norms and that no direct evidence links Trump’s business interests to policy decisions.

CZ had stepped down as Binance’s CEO last year following legal settlements with US authorities, and has kept a relatively low profile ever since. In May, CZ confirmed applying for a presidential pardon from Trump after reports linked him to such efforts.

Citing Trump’s past BitMEX pardons, the Binance co-founder said that he’s the only person jailed solely for a BSA violation. Despite seeking clemency, CZ said that he won’t return to Binance leadership.

 

 

Source: https://cryptopotato.com/coinbase-denies-bombshell-claim-it-fueled-trump-binance-hit-piece/

The post Coinbase Denies Bombshell Claim it Fueled Trump-Binance Hit Piece appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

The Meme Coin Market in 2025: Trust, Community, and the End of Hype

Anndy Lian
The Meme Coin Market in 2025: Trust, Community, and the End of Hype

The meme coin market, once a wild frontier of viral trends and overnight millionaires, has entered a new phase. What began as a playful experiment with coins like Dogecoin has morphed into a $60 billion ecosystem in 2024. Yet, this growth comes with a catch: saturation is reshaping the rules of the game. I’ve watched the pendulum swing from unchecked hype to a more discerning market where trust and community are the new currencies of success. Let’s unpack this evolution and what it means for investors and developers alike.

The Saturation Dilemma: A Market at a Crossroads

The numbers tell a compelling story. BDC Consulting’s 2024 report highlighted a staggering 169% increase in the meme coin market cap, reaching $60 billion by year-end. This surge, driven by the likes of Dogecoin ($35.91 billion), Shiba Inu ($8.97 billion), and newer entrants like PEPE ($6.12 billion), reflects a flood of tokens vying for attention. Coinmarketcap’s latest rankings, updated in June 2025, underscore this dominance, with established coins overshadowing the thousands of micro-projects launched on platforms like Solana and Ethereum. But here’s the rub: this oversaturation has fragmented liquidity and investor focus.

In practical terms, shared liquidity across projects means that the capital pool, once concentrated on a few breakout stars, is now spread thin. Based on what I have observed from the Raydium’s liquidity pools, a popular decentralized exchange on Solana, suggests that liquidity often constitutes just 20-40% of a coin’s market cap. With so many tokens competing, even this cushion is eroding, leading to diminished returns. I recall the days when a coin like Pepe could skyrocket 7,000% in 17 days, as noted in an article on The Straits Times Singapore in November 2024. Today, such explosive gains are rare, and investors are left chasing 1.5x returns on high-risk bets, a far cry from the 10x or 100x promises of yesteryear.

This saturation forces a reckoning. The market is no longer forgiving of projects that rely solely on a catchy meme or a fleeting viral moment. Instead, it demands substance, and that substance begins with trust, a concept I believe will define the meme coin narrative for the foreseeable future.

Trust as the Cornerstone of Success

Trust has emerged as the linchpin in this crowded market, a shift rooted in human psychology and market maturity. When individuals risk their savings on a meme coin, they’re not just betting on a joke. They’re investing in a belief system. This belief hinges on transparency, accountability, and a sense of ownership, elements that sustain projects through inevitable downturns. Take CAPTAINBNB, for instance, a coin that has garnered attention for its 100% circulating supply and renounced contracts, as highlighted in recent X discussions. Such moves signal to investors that the project isn’t a rug pull waiting to happen, fostering a loyalty that hype alone can’t replicate.

This perspective aligns with insights from industry observers, who argue that community-driven transparency, think regular AMAs (Ask Me Anything sessions) or open development roadmaps builds resilience. I’ve seen this play out firsthand with coins that weathered the 2024 bear market by keeping their communities engaged, contrasting sharply with projects that vanished after their initial pump. I believe that trending tokens emphasizes social engagement and holder growth as key indicators, suggesting that trust is quantifiable in the form of active, committed communities.

Yet, building trust is no small feat. Many developers still cling to the old playbook, launching with a meme, a charismatic figurehead, and a promise of riches. This approach, while effective in 2023 and early 2024, is losing its luster. The market has matured, and investors are asking harder questions: Who’s behind this? What’s the long-term vision? Without answers grounded in integrity, even the best memes fizzle out.

The Declining Power of Key Opinion Leaders

This brings us to the contentious role of influencers or Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs), a topic that stirs debate in every crypto corner. For years, KOLs, think Twitter influencers with tens of thousands of followers, have been the rocket fuel for meme coin launches. A single endorsement could send a token from obscurity to a $10 million market cap overnight. But as of 2025, their influence is under scrutiny, and for good reason. This is also echoed in several panels that I have spoken on with Cointelegraph events.

I dare say that more than 60% of KOL-backed projects see initial pumps, 50% crash due to credibility issues and 90% of them failed to survive through a period of 2 months. I’ve witnessed this pattern myself: a KOL with a track record of rug pulls or failed calls promotes a new coin, only for the community to balk when the inevitable dip hits. There are also KOLs with 1 million followers, yet they fail to get the token to more than $800K in market cap. Why buy the dip if the KOL’s past projects never recovered? This skepticism is palpable on platforms like X, where users increasingly call out “clown” influencers whose hype doesn’t match their results.

I urge investors to look beyond paid promotions and conduct due diligence. The market’s memory is long, and a KOL’s history can cap a coin’s potential. Imagine a project reaching $5 million, only to stall at $10 million because profit-takers flee, spooked by the promoter’s tainted reputation. The result? A promising narrative dies, not for lack of community support, but for lack of trust in the messenger. This trend suggests that the KOL model, once a shortcut to success, is becoming an anchor dragging projects down. To be honest, the $5m, $10m is just an example, in reality most of them failed to even reach $1m market cap.

The Rise of Community and Utility

If KOLs are losing their grip, who or what will lead meme coins into the future? The answer lies in communities and utility, two forces that, when combined, create a foundation for lasting value. Shiba Inu’s evolution offers a case study. Beyond its meme origins, the project has expanded into ShibaSwap and Shibarium, a layer-2 solution that enhances transaction efficiency. This utility, coupled with a passionate community, has kept it relevant.

Similarly, Pepe Coin has thrived by leveraging community-driven initiatives and strategic partnerships, blurring the line between meme coin and utility token. Coins like Shiba Inu and Pepe stand out due to their ecosystems, suggesting that utility, whether in DeFi, gaming, or decentralized governance, adds a layer of legitimacy. I’ve observed this firsthand: projects integrating practical applications tend to attract a different caliber of investor, one less swayed by hype and more interested in long-term potential.

A couple of projects have pivoted to a Web3 super app that empowers community governance and creator monetization. This approach moves beyond the meme, offering a platform where users can organize and thrive. It’s a model that echoes the DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) structures gaining traction in 2025, where token holders vote on development paths. This shift from top-down promotion to bottom-up participation is, in my view, the future of meme coins.

The Role of Trading Bots and Market Manipulation

No discussion of 2025’s meme coin market would be complete without addressing trading bots, particularly sniper bots. These automated tools, capable of executing trades in milliseconds, have become a double-edged sword. Their prevalence on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), where they exploit new token listings to front-run retail investors is a big problem. I’ve seen this play out: a coin launches, bots snap up supply, and prices spike artificially before crashing, leaving latecomers with losses.

This dynamic can distort market signals, but projects are fighting back. Time-locked liquidity pools and anti-bot mechanisms during launches are becoming standard, aiming to level the playing field. While not foolproof, these measures suggest a market adapting to technological challenges, a sign of maturity that could benefit legitimate projects in the long run.

Regulatory Horizons and the Road Ahead

Looking ahead, regulatory developments will shape meme coin trajectories. The U.S. Bitcoin Act, passed in early 2025, and the allowance of banks to custody crypto, signal a more structured environment. This could impose KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) requirements, challenging some meme coin projects that thrive on anonymity. Yet, it also opens the door to institutional investment, potentially legitimizing the space and paving the way for meme coin ETFs, a possibility I’ve speculated on with colleagues.

This regulatory push may bifurcate the market. Established coins like Dogecoin, with their proven track records, will coexist with innovative, utility-focused projects. The challenge for developers will be balancing compliance with the anarchic spirit that birthed meme coins. For investors, it means a need for sharper analysis, moving beyond memes to assess fundamentals like team credibility and technological innovation.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

As I reflect on the meme coin market in 2025, one truth stands out: the era of hype is giving way to an era of trust. Saturation has forced a reset, pushing projects to prioritize transparency, community engagement, and utility over viral gimmicks. KOLs, once kingmakers, are losing relevance as investors demand substance. Trading bots and regulatory shifts add complexity, but they also signal a maturing ecosystem where the best ideas can rise.

For those in this space, whether developers building the next big coin or investors seeking the next big win, the message is clear: focus on what endures. Build communities that grind alongside you, integrate utility that adds value, and let trust be your north star. The market won’t forgive shortcuts, but it will reward vision. So, I ask you: What’s your trust metric for a meme coin? Is it the community’s voice, the project’s roadmap, or the utility it offers? Share your thoughts. I’m eager to hear how you’re navigating this evolving landscape.

“TRUST IS THE NEW HYPE.” – Anndy Lian

 

Source: https://news.shib.io/2025/07/13/the-meme-coin-market-in-2025-trust-community-and-the-end-of-hype

The post The Meme Coin Market in 2025: Trust, Community, and the End of Hype appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Macro events and market movements: What to watch

Anndy Lian
Macro events and market movements: What to watch

The global financial markets are currently a whirlwind of activity, weaving together threads of optimism, uncertainty, and transformation. From equities soaring to new heights in the United States to the looming shadow of escalating tariffs, and from the steadiness of fixed income to the burgeoning adoption of Bitcoin by public companies, there’s a lot to unpack.

Equities: Highs and hiccups

Let’s start with equities, where the US markets are painting a picture of triumph tinged with tension. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are hitting new highs, driven by powerhouse performances in the tech and travel sectors. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are riding a wave of strong earnings, fuelled by relentless demand for innovation.

Meanwhile, the travel industry, think Delta Air Lines and Marriott International, is bouncing back with gusto, as pent-up wanderlust meets improving economic sentiment. It’s an exhilarating time for investors, and I can’t help but feel a surge of optimism watching these sectors thrive.

But there’s a catch. President Trump’s recent threat to slap a 35 per cent tariff on some Canadian goods, set to kick in on August 1, is rattling nerves. He’s not stopping there; rumblings of 15 per cent to 20 per cent levies on most other countries suggest a trade war could be brewing.

This escalation casts a shadow over the bullish mood, and I worry it might choke the momentum we’re seeing. Across the Atlantic, Europe offers a glimmer of hope. The Stoxx 600 is perking up, buoyed by whispers of a potential EU-US trade deal.

Mining and retail sectors are leading the charge, and while the optimism is cautious, it’s a lifeline that could steady European markets. Balancing these highs and hiccups, I see a market teetering between opportunity and risk, exhilarating yet precarious.

Volatility: The calm before the storm?

Turning to volatility, the scene is surprisingly serene. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge,” is lounging near its March lows. Short-term volatilities are fading, and the S&P 500 is priced for small moves, suggesting traders are betting on stability.

It’s almost too quiet, and that makes me uneasy. Historically, low volatility has been a prelude to sharp corrections, like a calm sea hiding a brewing tempest. With tariff tensions simmering and geopolitical uncertainties lurking, this tranquility feels fragile.

I’d advise investors to enjoy the peace but keep their eyes peeled; the market’s current complacency could flip in an instant if trade talks sour or unexpected shocks hit.

Fixed income: A steady anchor

In the fixed income realm, US Treasuries are holding firm after a flurry of government bond sales. The 10-year Treasury yield has settled at 4.35 per cent, a beacon of stability amid the storm. Trump’s bold call for a 300-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut has tongues wagging, fuelling speculation of a dovish shift.

Markets are still penciling in two rate cuts this year, though a hold this month seems most likely. I find this steadiness reassuring; it’s a sign that investors are flocking to safety as tariff threats loom.

But the yield’s stability also hints at a wait-and-see approach. If the Fed does pivot to cuts, it could ease borrowing costs and spur growth, though I suspect they’ll move cautiously, wary of inflation’s stubborn streak.

Currencies: The dollar’s quiet strength

Currencies are dancing to the tune of tariff jitters, with the US dollar (USD) notching its first weekly gain in three weeks. The Bloomberg Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.7 per cent, flexing against heavyweights like the Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), and Canadian Dollar (CAD). The CAD is taking a hit after Trump’s tariff threat, and I can see why; trade disruptions with a key partner like the US sting.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is a rare bright spot, inching up after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady. I view the USD’s modest rally as a classic flight to safety; when uncertainty spikes, the greenback shines. It’s not a roaring comeback, but a quiet reminder of its safe-haven clout in choppy times.

Commodities: A tale of two trends

Commodities are a mixed bag, and I’m fascinated by the contrasts. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is flat, masking a tug-of-war beneath the surface. Metals are stealing the show, copper’s up 8.6 per cent in New York, turbocharged by tariff-driven supply fears, while silver’s eyeing its highest weekly close in 13 years at US$37.32.

These gains thrill me; they signal industrial demand and a hedge against uncertainty. But agriculture’s a different story, corn’s down five per cent, weighed by bumper harvests and good weather.

I feel for farmers facing this slump; it’s a stark reminder of nature’s whims. Energy’s holding steady, with fuel products offsetting natural gas weakness. Crude prices dipped two per cent Thursday on oversupply fears but stabilised after Trump teased a Russia announcement. Gold’s flat, caught between tariff woes and Fed policy bets.

This split performance tells me commodities are a microcosm of broader tensions; some sectors thrive, others falter, reflecting an uneven economic pulse.

Macro events: Data points and trade tensions

Macro events are piling on the intrigue. The UK’s May trade balance and industrial production data, due at 0600 GMT, will spotlight its post-Brexit health amid global trade friction. I’m eager to see if resilience holds or cracks appear. Canada’s June unemployment rate, out at 1230 GMT, might tick up, hinting at growth pains, especially with Trump’s tariff sword dangling.

Speaking of which, his 35 per cent Canadian tariff threat, plus potential 15 per cent-20 per cent hikes elsewhere, feels like a seismic shift. The EU’s next in line, and I dread the ripple effects; a full-blown trade war could stall global growth. Then there’s Fed Governor Goolsbee’s speech at 1700 GMT; his words could sway rate cut odds. These events are puzzle pieces, and I’m piecing them together with a mix of anticipation and concern.

Macro data: A labour market puzzle

In the US, macro data offers a riddle. Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 227,000 in early July, beating forecasts of 235,000 and marking four straight drops. That’s a cheer-worthy sign of labor strength, and I’m impressed by the resilience. Yet, ongoing claims rose 10,000 to 1,965,000, the highest since 2021, flagging slower hiring.

It’s a mixed bag that leaves me pondering: Are we seeing a robust market with a soft underbelly? Trump’s tariff saber-rattling and his 300-basis-point cut push add spice to this stew. I suspect the Fed’s watching closely, balancing growth signals against trade-induced inflation risks.

Bitcoin: A corporate crypto wave

Now, a curveball, Bitcoin. My favourite topic. Blockware Intelligence predicts 36 more public companies will add it to their balance sheets by 2025’s end, a 25 per cent jump from the current 141. This year alone, adoption soared 120 per cent, with giants like Michael Saylor’s Strategy (597,325 BTC) and MARA Holdings (50,000 BTC) leading.

I’m intrigued, this isn’t just a crypto fad; it’s a strategic pivot. Companies are betting on Bitcoin as an inflation shield and portfolio diversifier, bridging traditional finance and digital assets. If this pans out, it could juice Bitcoin’s price and legitimacy. I’m cautiously excited but wonder: will regulatory hurdles or market swings trip up this trend? Anyway, it has hit over US$120,000 per Bitcoin. This is also a celebration call.

My take: Opportunity meets uncertainty

Stepping back, I see a world brimming with possibility yet shadowed by risk. Equities dazzle, but tariffs threaten to dim the lights. Volatility’s hush feels deceptive, and fixed income’s calm anchors us, for now.

The USD’s steady rise and commodities’ split story reflect a globe in flux, while macro data and events hint at choppy waters ahead. Bitcoin’s corporate surge is a wild card I can’t ignore. My gut says adaptability is key; investors should savor the wins but brace for turbulence.

 

Source: https://e27.co/macro-events-and-market-movements-what-to-watch-20250714/

The post Macro events and market movements: What to watch appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets

Anndy Lian
Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets

I’ve been closely following the latest developments surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and cryptocurrency policies, especially as they unfold in 2025. The query at hand calls for a comprehensive analysis of how these policies are shaping global markets, and I’m eager to dive into the data, reflect on the implications, and offer my perspective.

With Trump’s recent announcement of heightened blanket tariffs and his administration’s surprising embrace of cryptocurrencies, the world is witnessing a fascinating interplay of protectionism and financial innovation.

Trump’s tariff escalation: A seismic shift in global trade

Let’s start with the tariffs, which have once again thrust trade tensions into the spotlight. On Thursday, in an interview with NBC News, President Trump revealed plans to ramp up blanket tariffs on most US trading partners from the current 10 per cent to a proposed 15 per cent or even 20 per cent. This escalation builds on an already aggressive trade stance, which saw the average applied US tariff rate climb to an estimated 27 per cent between January and April 2025, a level unseen in over a century.

But Trump didn’t stop there; he also singled out Canada, threatening a 35 per cent tariff on its imports starting in August, with a warning that retaliation would trigger even higher rates. This isn’t just rhetoric; it’s a calculated move to protect American industries and address trade imbalances, though the consequences are rippling far beyond US borders.

The immediate market reaction was telling. Global risk sentiment took a hit on Friday morning, with Asian equity indices trading flat and US equity futures signalling a lower open. This follows a volatile period earlier in the year when Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, sent shockwaves through financial markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225, for instance, plummeted 7.8 per cent in a single day, and analysts now project a 0.8 per cent reduction in Japan’s GDP due to these measures.

Export-dependent economies like South Africa are scrambling to diversify their markets, while major trading partners, China, Canada, and the European Union, have retaliated with their own tariffs. China’s duties on US goods have soared to 125 per cent, and Canada has slapped a 25 per cent tariff on non-USMCA-compliant vehicles. This tit-for-tat escalation is fracturing global trade networks, and it’s hard not to see the parallels with the trade wars of Trump’s first term.

Economically, the tariffs are a double-edged sword. On the downside, they’ve driven up costs across the board. In the US, consumer prices rose by 2.4 per cent in 2025, with apparel prices surging 17.0 per cent and food costs increasing by 2.6 per cent. Businesses, caught in the crossfire, are passing these higher import costs onto consumers or absorbing them at the expense of profit margins.

Supply chains, already strained by years of disruption, are being forced to adapt yet again. Some companies are relocating production, others are seeking alternative suppliers, and many are simply scaling back.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast, citing these tariffs as a key factor, and there’s a growing chorus warning of a potential recession. For the US itself, estimates suggest a long-term GDP hit of up to eight per cent, a steep price to pay for protectionism.

There’s an upside, or at least an intended one. Trump’s tariffs aim to shield domestic industries, particularly manufacturing, from foreign competition. By making imported goods more expensive, the policy could stimulate domestic production and job growth.

Steel and aluminum tariffs, now at 50 per cent, and a 25 per cent duty on imported cars are designed to breathe new life into American factories. Whether this will work in practice is debatable—supply chain complexities and higher costs could offset any gains but the intent is clear. I can’t help but wonder if this is a last stand against an unstoppable tide or a genuine pivot toward self-reliance.

The cryptocurrency boom: Trump’s unexpected ally

Now, let’s pivot to a very different story: Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies, which has sent shockwaves of another type through global markets. On Thursday, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of US$116,046.44, breaking its earlier record of US$113,734.64, and it’s up 24 per cent for the year. This rally isn’t just a fluke. It’s fuelled by a combination of institutional demand and a policy shift that’s caught many by surprise.

Back in March 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies, a bold signal that the US government is no longer just tolerating digital assets but actively endorsing them. Add to that the appointment of crypto-friendly figures like SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and White House AI czar David Sacks, and you’ve got a regulatory environment that’s rolling out the red carpet for blockchain innovation.

The drivers behind this surge are multifaceted. A weakening US dollar, with the Dollar Index hovering at 97.576, has investors seeking alternatives. Global liquidity is abundant, and institutional capital is pouring in, think hedge funds, pension funds, and even banks jumping on the crypto bandwagon.

Galaxy’s analysis of market dynamics since June 2025 points to geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty as catalysts, with Bitcoin emerging as a standout performer. When Trump’s tariff announcement briefly sent Bitcoin below US$76,000 amid a broader risk-off move, it quickly rebounded, underscoring its resilience. Binance CEO Richard Teng and VanEck’s Mathew Sigel are bullish, suggesting Bitcoin could become a reserve asset if the dollar’s dominance wanes further.

For global markets, this is a game-changer. Cryptocurrencies are no longer a fringe experiment. They’re increasingly seen as a hedge against traditional market risks. Gold, up 0.3 per cent to US$3,324.63 per ounce, is still a safe haven, but Bitcoin’s meteoric rise suggests it’s stealing some of that thunder.

The potential is enormous: greater adoption could drive financial inclusion, spur innovation, and even reshape cross-border trade. Imagine a world where businesses use crypto to bypass tariff-laden banking systems, cutting costs and speeding up transactions.

However, there are risks as well; volatility remains a hallmark of the market, and regulatory gaps leave room for fraud and manipulation. Plus, the energy demands of crypto mining are a growing environmental headache, something I’ve seen spark heated, albeit with less focus than it deserves.

The interplay: Tariffs meet crypto in a global tug-of-war

Here’s where it gets really interesting: how do tariffs and cryptocurrencies interact? At first glance, they seem like opposites—one rooted in old-school protectionism, the other a symbol of borderless innovation. But dig deeper, and there’s a fascinating dynamic at play. The economic uncertainty sparked by tariffs could be turbocharging crypto’s appeal.

When trade tensions flare and markets wobble, as seen in Friday’s retreat in global risk sentiment, investors often look for hedges. Bitcoin’s decentralised nature, unbound by any single economy, makes it an attractive refuge. I’ve seen this before, during the 2018-2019 US-China trade war, when Bitcoin surged as traditional assets faltered. In 2025, with tariffs hitting harder, that pattern could intensify.

Conversely, crypto might soften the tariffs’ blow. If businesses adopt blockchain for cross-border payments, they could sidestep some of the costs and delays tied to traditional finance. A US importer facing a 20 per cent tariff on goods might use crypto to settle with a supplier faster and cheaper, easing the sting.

But let’s not overstate this, crypto’s still young, and its scale is limited. Most trade still flows through banks, and regulatory hurdles loom large. Additionally, the tariffs could indirectly harm crypto; higher costs for imported mining equipment from China, for instance, might squeeze miners and developers.

If I had to bet, I’d say crypto’s rise will outlast the tariff storm, though not without a wild ride.

For now, buckle up!

 

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-trade-barriers-and-crypto-bets-rewriting-the-rules-of-global-markets-20250711/

The post Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Indian official eyes strategic bitcoin reserve in ‘unique opportunity to lead’ – is it viable?

Anndy Lian
Indian official eyes strategic bitcoin reserve in ‘unique opportunity to lead’ – is it viable?

A call by a prominent member of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve for the country has stoked debate among digital finance experts over its feasibility.

Insisting that New Delhi had a “unique opportunity to lead” and pointing to trailblazers such as Bhutan, party spokesman Pradeep Bhandari drew attention to whether India’s rapidly growing economy would benefit from a “measured bitcoin strategy” which could strengthen economic resilience and project modernity.

United States President Donald Trump in March signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve out of digital tokens seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases, rather than from the previous practice of selling them off.

Bitcoins have risen by 19 per cent year-to-date to US$111,086.90, helped partly by Trump’s favourable view of the cryptocurrency and his family’s heavy involvement in the industry despite dips in market sentiment over global trade tensions.

Bhandari highlighted in an article late last month that even Bhutan had set up a successful model to build up bitcoin reserves by using hydropower resources to mine the currency – an energy-intensive process that involves creating transaction blocks.

Rival Pakistan too has announced plans to create a sovereign bitcoin reserve powered by unused electricity to monetise its energy oversupply. It established a Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) in February to set up a framework for investors and entrepreneurs.

A stablecoin firm that is majority-owned by the Trump Organisation signed a letter of intent with the PCC on April 26 to “accelerate blockchain innovation, stablecoin adoption and decentralised finance integration across Pakistan”.

Bitcoins are a form of digital money outside the control of any one person, group or entity, and have been compared to the modern-day equivalent of a traditional asset such as gold.

There exists only a finite number of 21 million bitcoins, which means that unlike assets such as currencies, stocks or bonds, it is not exposed to oversupply risks.

The International Monetary Fund has recently classified bitcoin as a capital asset, which sharpens the need for clear regulation and transparency in the emerging asset class, enabling responsible innovation, according to Bhandari.

Cryptocurrencies are currently unregulated in India. In 2020, the Supreme Court had lifted a ban on cryptocurrency imposed earlier by the country’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which had expressed concerns about its use in illegal transactions.

Indians have poured money into cryptocurrencies in recent years, despite the country’s having a tough regulatory stance and steep taxes on the instrument.

“In the long run, a bitcoin reserve could provide several strategic benefits for India,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

Such a reserve could serve as a hedge against inflation due to bitcoin’s fixed supply, help diversify the foreign reserves portfolio and potentially attract foreign investment by signalling India’s openness to innovative financial technologies, he said.

However, the country faces a steep path to establish a new financial reserve reserves framework.

“The feasibility of establishing a bitcoin reserve faces quite a few challenges due to India’s current regulatory environment. The country lacks a comprehensive legal framework for cryptocurrencies, despite imposing a 30 per cent tax on crypto profits and a 1 per cent Tax Deducted at Source on transactions,” Lian said

“To make this viable, India would need to sort out its regulations, creating clear policies for managing a national bitcoin reserve.”

India’s tax structure might require adjustments in addition to developing a secure infrastructure for storing and managing bitcoin, Lian said, adding that it would also need to step up efforts to build public trust through education.

The nation could think of starting a pilot programme, potentially using seized bitcoin to test feasibility while regulations are refined, Lian said.

Raj Kapoor, chairman of India Blockchain Alliance, agreed the country needed to boost efforts to make the bitcoin reserve viable.

“It is a good proposal on paper, but it won’t be workable until we clear a few cobwebs. There is regulatory uncertainty and jurisdictional ambiguity on cryptocurrency in India,” he said.

With Pakistan appearing to have edged ahead with apparent support from the US and China, Kapoor said India needed to “address gaping holes. How are we talking of a bitcoin reserve without a policy on cryptocurrency in place?”.

One of the biggest obstacles for Delhi is the RBI resisting the widespread adoption of cryptocurrency, apparently stemming from concerns over whether it could dilute its oversight and control of the sovereign rupee currency, he said.

The country could consider a digital asset regulatory authority under the oversight of the central bank that could address any concerns, Kapoor said, noting the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s loose regulation of cryptocurrencies.

“You have to integrate a lot of things before we arrive at a national bitcoin reserve,” he said.

Leveraging strengths

Analysts note that India could also leverage its position as a global hub for information technology services to establish such a digital finance reserve.

Benjamin Grolimund, UAE general manager at Flipster, said introducing a bitcoin reserve for India would hinge upon both policy and infrastructure.

According to Grolimund, India has an advantage of having established a Unified Payment Interface – a real-time payment system which facilitates peer-to-peer payments and peer-to-merchant payments.

“But integrating bitcoin into national reserves will demand more – including secure custody, audit and transparency measures,” he said, adding that controls would also be needed for managing them as sovereign assets.

Grolimund said a national bitcoin reserve established together with a clear policy framework would signal “India’s readiness to play a leading role in shaping the global digital asset landscape”.

He warned, however, of sending “mixed signals” should the government support bitcoin at the state level while limiting access for individuals.

“If Bhandari’s proposal serves as a gateway to broader regulatory clarity and retail adoption, the short-term inconsistency may be a necessary step in India’s evolution,” he said. “The country has already proven its strength in building world-class digital public infrastructure and pioneering fintech models.”

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3317730/indian-official-eyes-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-unique-opportunity-lead-it-viable

The post Indian official eyes strategic bitcoin reserve in ‘unique opportunity to lead’ – is it viable? appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Inflation, trade, and tariffs: A mixed macro picture

Anndy Lian
Inflation, trade, and tariffs: A mixed macro picture

assets and the anticipation surrounding key macro events, numerous factors are driving market movements across equities, volatility, digital assets, fixed income, currencies, and commodities.

I’ll break down these drivers and catalysts, weaving in specific data and headlines to provide a thorough understanding of the current landscape.

Equities: Trade tensions and regional resilience

The equities market is experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical uncertainty and regional strength. Donald Trump’s confirmation of a 50 per cent tariff on copper imports, a figure double the anticipated 25 per cent, has sent ripples through global markets.

This bold move, aimed at protecting domestic industries, is poised to increase costs for US businesses reliant on copper, such as those in construction, electronics, and renewable energy. The tariff’s immediate effect has been to heighten uncertainty, with investors bracing for potential retaliatory actions from trading partners.

Yet, despite this turbulence, equities in the European Union are holding strong. The STOXX Europe 600 Index has climbed over two per cent in the past week, fuelled by robust economic data and optimism about the region’s recovery. Sectors like technology and industrials are leading the charge, suggesting that European markets are, for now, shrugging off the broader trade war concerns.

Meanwhile, UK exporters are reaping the benefits of a weaker pound, which has depreciated by roughly 1.5 per cent against the dollar recently. This currency movement has made British goods more competitive internationally, boosting companies like Rolls-Royce and AstraZeneca, which have reported increased export orders. The FTSE 100 has seen modest gains as a result, though the shadow of escalating trade tensions looms large.

In my view, the resilience of EU and UK equities is impressive, but it’s tempered by the risk that Trump’s tariff policies could spark a broader trade conflict, potentially derailing these gains. Investors should keep a close eye on how these dynamics unfold, as the balance between regional strength and global uncertainty remains delicate.

Volatility: A calm before the storm?

Turning to volatility, the VIX, often dubbed the market’s “fear gauge,” has eased to 16.8, down from recent highs, signalling a period of relative calm. This decline suggests that investors are less worried about immediate market swings, possibly reassured by positive economic signals or the resolution of some geopolitical tensions.

The S&P 500’s expected move of ±0.44 per cent further supports this picture of stability, indicating a tight trading range for the index. Additionally, the flat volatility curve, where short-term and long-term expectations align, hints at a lack of imminent stress. Historically, a VIX below 20 is considered a sign of market confidence, and at 16.8, we’re in that territory.

However, I’m skeptical that this tranquility will last. A flat volatility curve can be a double-edged sword; while it reflects calm now, it’s often a precursor to sharp corrections when underlying risks such as Trump’s trade policies or upcoming macroeconomic events resurface.

My take is that this lull is a breather rather than a new normal. Investors might be lulled into complacency, but the potential for sudden disruptions remains high. Keeping an eye on catalysts like the FOMC minutes or unexpected tariff escalations will be critical in the days ahead.

Digital assets: Stability and divergence

The digital asset space presents a fascinating contrast to traditional markets, striking a balance between stability and selective growth. Bitcoin has held steady around US$109,000, a sign of its maturing role as a store of value amid broader market uncertainty. This resilience is bolstered by continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT, which have drawn institutional interest seeking exposure to cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, Ethereum has posted gains, trading at approximately US$2,557, likely driven by developments in decentralised finance (DeFi) and anticipation of network upgrades. However, not all digital assets are thriving equally, ETHA, an Ethereum-based ETF, has dipped, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within this sector.

Beyond the price action, there’s notable activity in the crypto-treasury space. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao’s family office, YZi Labs, is backing The BNB Treasury Company, a new firm offering exposure to BNB with plans to list on a major US exchange. With BNB trading at US$662.43, this move highlights the growing convergence of cryptocurrency and traditional finance.

Similarly, Donald Trump Jr.’s investment in Thumzup Media Corp, a social media marketing firm adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset at US$111,178 per coin, reflects a broader trend of corporate Bitcoin adoption. Thumzup’s stock, trading at US$9.50 per share with Trump Jr. holding 350,000 shares valued at nearly US$3.3 million, illustrates how even non-tech firms are embracing crypto strategies.

Analysts also suggest Bitcoin may face a short-term dip below US$107,000 before its next rally, potentially hitting a Fair Value Gap between US$106,500 and US$106,200. This correction could be a strategic play by “smart money” to grab liquidity before pushing prices to new highs.

Fixed income: Yields on the rise

In the fixed income market, US Treasury yields are climbing ahead of the pivotal 10-year auction, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching approximately 4.35 per cent. This uptick reflects investor expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, as well as anticipation of higher interest rates to combat lingering inflation pressures.

Rising yields have broad implications: they make bonds more attractive compared to equities, potentially triggering a shift in investor allocations, and they increase borrowing costs, which could slow economic growth. The upcoming US$39 billion 10-year Notes auction at 1700 GMT will be a litmus test; strong demand could signal confidence in the US economy, while weak demand might raise red flags about yield sustainability.

The rise in yields is a double-edged sword. It reflects a healthy adjustment to economic realities, but it also risks stifling growth if rates rise too quickly. The auction’s outcome will be a key indicator of market sentiment, and I’d wager that investors are bracing for a bumpy ride as they balance yield opportunities against broader uncertainties.

Currencies: Dollar’s modest strength

The US dollar is enjoying modest gains against its G10 peers, buoyed by rising Treasury yields and its safe-haven status amid trade war jitters. It’s particularly strong against the Japanese yen and the euro, where dovish central bank policies have weakened local currencies.

However, these gains are restrained by concerns over the economic fallout from Trump’s tariffs, which could dampen US growth and, in turn, the dollar’s appeal. The pound’s 1.5 per cent drop, as noted earlier, is another piece of this puzzle, driven by export dynamics rather than broad dollar strength.

I see the dollar’s current position as a reflection of short-term flight-to-safety flows rather than a sustained bullish trend. If trade tensions escalate, the dollar could face headwinds, but for now, it’s holding its ground. Currency markets are notoriously sensitive to macro shifts, so the FOMC minutes and auction results could quickly alter this trajectory.

Commodities: Copper in the spotlight

Commodities are feeling the heat of Trump’s trade policies, with HG copper surging to a near 30 per cent premium over London prices following the 50 per cent tariff announcement.

Copper, a critical input for industries like electronics and construction, is now at the centre of supply chain concerns, with US manufacturers warning of price hikes and disruptions. This premium reflects anticipated shortages and higher costs, though global supply chains may eventually adapt to blunt the tariff’s impact.

In my view, copper’s surge is a classic case of policy-driven volatility. While the short-term effects are clear, the long-term picture depends on how producers and consumers adjust. For now, it’s a stark reminder of how quickly commodities can become geopolitical pawns.

Macro events and data: What’s next?

Two major macro events loom large: the US 10-year Notes auction and the release of the FOMC minutes from the June meeting at 1800 GMT. The auction will gauge investor appetite for US debt, while the minutes will offer clues about the Fed’s stance on rates and inflation, critical drivers of market expectations.

Elsewhere, macro data paints a mixed picture. US consumer inflation expectations for June 2025 have dropped to three per cent, a sign of cooling pressures, but commodity price expectations remain elevated for gas (4.2 per cent), medical care (9.3 per cent), college education (9.1 per cent), and rent (9.1 per cent). Taiwan’s trade surplus, meanwhile, jumped to US$12.07 billion, driven by exports of tech products, though exports to Europe declined.

Headlines amplify the noise: Trump’s tariff threats extend beyond copper to pharmaceuticals (up to 200 per cent, delayed 12-18 months) and India (an extra 10 per cent for BRICS ties), with no extensions on country-specific levies due in August. He’s also mulling a new tariff on the EU over tech disputes. These moves keep markets on edge, and I’d argue they’re a wildcard that could overshadow even the Fed’s signals if they materialise.

My take: Navigating the uncertainty

In wrapping up, the current market environment is a complex tapestry of opportunity and risk. Trump’s trade policies are the loudest drumbeat, shaking up commodities and equities while leaving volatility deceptively calm.

Digital assets are carving out a niche of stability, fixed income is adjusting to policy shifts, and currencies are caught in the crosscurrents. The upcoming macro events will either clarify or complicate this picture, but for now, caution seems warranted.

The markets’ resilience strikes me: EU equities, UK exporters, and Bitcoin are holding firm, but I can’t shake the feeling that we’re one tariff tweet away from a sharper correction. Investors would do well to remain nimble, closely monitor the data, and be prepared for surprises in this unpredictable landscape.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/inflation-trade-and-tariffs-a-mixed-macro-picture-20250710/

The post Inflation, trade, and tariffs: A mixed macro picture appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil

Anndy Lian
The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil

The interplay of global macroeconomic dynamics and cryptocurrency market trends presents a complex tapestry of investor sentiment, speculative positioning, and structural shifts in asset valuation frameworks.

At the forefront of this landscape lies Bitcoin (BTC), whose recent price action and derivatives market metrics have sparked intense scrutiny. Simultaneously, Ethereum’s (ETH) unique capacity to generate organic yield through protocol-level mechanisms offers a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

To dissect these phenomena, we must contextualise Bitcoin’s soaring open interest within broader market psychology while contrasting Ethereum’s yield-generating potential against traditional financial paradigms.

Bitcoin’s derivatives surge: Implications for price dynamics

Bitcoin’s derivatives market has reached unprecedented levels of activity, with total open interest across exchanges hitting US$73.59 billion, a figure that underscores the growing institutionalisation of crypto markets. This metric reflects the total notional value of outstanding futures and options contracts, serving as a barometer for speculative fervour and hedging activity.

The dominance of regulated venues like CME (US$16.71 billion) and Binance (US$12.08 billion) highlights divergent participant profiles: CME’s institutional-heavy structure versus Binance’s retail-driven ecosystem. Such bifurcation amplifies market complexity as macro-hedge funds and algorithmic traders interact with retail sentiment, often leading to asymmetrical price discovery mechanisms.

Historically, surges in open interest have preceded heightened volatility. For instance, Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run saw open interest peak at US$25 billion before a 35 per cent correction, illustrating the liquidation risks inherent in leveraged positions. The current US$73.59 billion figure, however, operates within a transformed regulatory and infrastructural environment.

Institutional-grade custody solutions and improved risk management tools have enhanced market resilience, potentially mitigating cascading liquidations even during sharp corrections. Yet, the concentration of US$28.79 billion in the top two exchanges raises concerns about systemic interconnectivity, particularly given Binance’s recent regulatory challenges and CME’s role as a clearinghouse for macro funds.

The psychological significance of Bitcoin’s US$100,000–US$110,000 range cannot be overstated. Having breached this threshold in May 2025, BTC’s subsequent consolidation reflects a classic accumulation phase, wherein long-term holders absorb volatility while short-term speculators test support levels.

On-chain data revealing 19,400 BTC inflows to institutional wallets corroborates this thesis, suggesting strategic positioning ahead of anticipated catalysts, possibly tied to the US election cycle or ETF approval timelines. Notably, the 0.9 outflow/inflow ratio signals net accumulation, a bullish indicator historically associated with multi-month rallies.

However, the persistent short-side pressure on Binance derivatives, despite BTC’s resilience, introduces a tug-of-war dynamic where capitulation events could trigger explosive moves in either direction.

From a technical perspective, the US$100,000–US$110,000 range may serve as a springboard for a parabolic rally, as suggested by cyclical patterns observed in prior halving cycles. The nine per cent correction to US$98,300 in June 2025 barely grazed the 200-day moving average, preserving the uptrend’s integrity.

Should volume profiles expand alongside institutional inflows, a breakout above US$111,800 could activate algorithmic buy orders, propelling BTC toward US$120,000 by year-end. Conversely, a decisive close below US$95,000 would invalidate this thesis, potentially triggering a retest of US$85,000 support—a scenario deemed low probability by analysts tracking on-chain fundamentals.

Ethereum’s yield paradigm: A structural shift in crypto valuation

While Bitcoin dominates headlines as a macro hedge and digital gold, Ethereum’s evolution into a yield-generating infrastructure asset represents a seismic shift in crypto-economics.

Unlike Bitcoin’s fixed-supply, proof-of-work model, which relies solely on a monetary premium for returns, Ethereum’s post-Merge architecture enables stakers to earn ~three per cent annualised yields through network validation. This organic cash flow mechanism aligns Ethereum with traditional income-producing assets, bridging the gap between decentralised protocols and institutional portfolios.

Staking’s appeal lies in its dual function as both a security mechanism and a revenue stream. By locking ETH to validate transactions, participants secure the network while earning issuance rewards and transaction fees.

Restaking protocols like EigenLayer further amplify yields by allowing staked ETH to secure third-party applications, creating a layered economy of risk and return. This operational model contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s reliance on financial engineering, such as ETFs or lending products, to generate yield, positioning Ethereum as a hybrid between a utility network and a capital asset.

The implications for institutional adoption are profound. Traditional investors, accustomed to dividend-paying equities or coupon-bearing bonds, often struggle to reconcile Bitcoin’s non-yielding nature with portfolio allocation models. Ethereum’s three per cent base yield, however, provides a familiar entry point, particularly for sovereign wealth funds and pension schemes seeking inflation-hedged returns.

BlackRock’s recent filings for an Ethereum ETF underscore this trajectory, signaling a potential influx of US$50 billion or more in institutional capital should regulatory hurdles ease.Moreover, Ethereum’s yield ecosystem extends beyond passive income. Decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols enable dynamic strategies—such as liquidity provision or leveraged staking—that can boost returns to 8–12 per cent, albeit with elevated risk.

This programmable yield, combined with Layer 2 scaling solutions reducing transaction costs, creates a virtuous cycle of capital inflows and network utility. In contrast, Bitcoin’s yield opportunities remain tethered to centralised intermediaries (e.g., BlockFi’s interest accounts), exposing holders to counterparty risks that Ethereum’s trustless staking avoids.

Intermarket dynamics: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and macro resilience

The divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum narratives plays out against a backdrop of global uncertainty. With US Treasury yields climbing toward five per cent and trade wars intensifying, risk assets face headwinds that disproportionately impact high-duration investments.

Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq equities, evident in its muted response to tariff-driven volatility, suggests lingering sensitivity to Fed policy. Ethereum’s staking yield, however, may decouple it from traditional tech valuations, as its cash flows provide downside protection during liquidity crunches.

Gold’s retreat to US$3,300/oz amid dollar strength further highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a non-sovereign reserve asset. While gold remains a crisis hedge, its lack of yield and logistical constraints in storage and transmission render it inferior to programmable digital alternatives.

Ethereum’s ability to offer both appreciation potential and income generation could accelerate this substitution effect, particularly in emerging markets grappling with currency debasement and capital controls.

Energy markets also influence crypto dynamics. Brent crude’s rebound to US$70/bbl, despite OPEC+ supply increases, underscores the inflationary pressures that have historically buoyed BTC. Ethereum benefits indirectly, as stable energy prices reduce miner capitulation risks—a concern during Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market.

Furthermore, Ethereum’s energy-efficient proof-of-stake model aligns with ESG mandates, granting it a regulatory advantage in jurisdictions that prioritise sustainability.

Strategic outlook: Navigating the dual narrative

For portfolio managers, the Bitcoin-Ethereum dichotomy demands nuanced allocation strategies. Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge against fiscal profligacy and currency debasement remains intact, particularly with US gross federal debt exceeding 130 per cent of GDP. Institutions seeking pure exposure to global liquidity expansion should prioritise BTC, leveraging derivatives to hedge against short-term volatility while accumulating during dips in the inflow ratio.

Ethereum, meanwhile, appeals to investors seeking alpha through participation in the protocol. The three per cent staking yield acts as a floor for total returns, with DeFi and NFT ecosystems offering asymmetric upside. A 60/40 BTC-ETH portfolio, rebalanced quarterly, could optimise risk-adjusted returns while capturing both monetary and utility premiums. Retail traders, conversely, may exploit Ethereum’s yield volatility through options straddles or basis trades, capitalising on protocol upgrade cycles.

Regulatory developments will loom large in Q3 and Q4 2025. The SEC’s impending rulings on spot Ethereum ETFs, coupled with MiCA compliance deadlines in Europe, could catalyse a US$200 billion inflow into compliant crypto products. Bitcoin’s derivatives market, now a US$73.59 billion ecosystem, may see regulatory convergence as the CFTC intensifies oversight, a double-edged sword that enhances legitimacy while squeezing unregistered exchanges.

In conclusion, the confluence of derivatives-driven speculation in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s yield revolution encapsulates crypto’s transition from fringe assets to mainstream infrastructure. While Bitcoin’s path hinges on macro resilience and institutional flows, Ethereum’s ascent depends on its ability to sustain yield premiums amid rising competition from layer-2 ecosystems.

Both assets, however, share a common destiny: redefining the storage and transfer of value in an era of unprecedented monetary experimentation. Investors who grasp this duality stand to navigate the volatility ahead with clarity, positioning themselves at the intersection of innovation and tradition.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-new-gold-standard-bitcoins-macro-hedge-role-amid-us-debt-and-trade-turmoil-20250709/

The post The new gold standard? Bitcoin’s macro hedge role amid US debt and trade turmoil appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.