Anndy Lian's Blog, page 11

The fed just changed everything: Why bitcoin could surge before October

Anndy Lian
The fed just changed everything: Why bitcoin could surge before October

The global financial landscape presents a complex tapestry of competing forces as we navigate the final quarter of 2025. While traditional markets grapple with evolving monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, digital assets continue demonstrating their unique behavioural patterns amid institutional adoption and technical repositioning.

This analysis examines Bitcoin’s current trajectory through the lens of market structure, institutional behaviour, and technical indicators, revealing a maturing asset class undergoing significant transformation. The interplay between liquidation dynamics, corporate treasury allocations, and technical support levels creates a fascinating narrative about cryptocurrency’s evolving role in global finance.

Bitcoin’s recent price action around the US$111,924 mark reflects a critical juncture where multiple market forces converge. The cryptocurrency’s consolidation between US$110,000 and US$120,000 during September 2025 appears directly linked to strategic accumulation activities by institutional miners positioning themselves for long-term growth. This price range represents more than just a technical consolidation zone; it serves as a psychological threshold where market participants weigh the potential for short-term volatility against longer-term structural trends.

The significance of this range becomes clearer when considering that Bitcoin might experience a maximum eight per cent decline to US$100,000 during September, though such a move would represent an outlier scenario rather than the baseline expectation. This potential downside buffer provides crucial context for understanding current market psychology and risk management approaches.

The liquidation dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s current price level reveal sophisticated market mechanics at work. A critical support level at US$107,440 has emerged as particularly significant, representing the average acquisition cost for short-term holders controlling 8.82 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply. This technical detail matters because it creates a natural defence zone where panic selling typically subsides as holders reach breakeven points.

Meanwhile, the price action near US$112,000 to US$115,000 has become a focal point for traders anticipating potential breakouts toward US$120,000. These technical levels aren’t arbitrary, they reflect real economic decisions made by market participants with substantial capital at stake. The market structure suggests that any sustained move above US$115,000 could trigger significant momentum as algorithmic trading systems and trend-following strategies activate.

Institutional involvement continues reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics in profound ways. September 2025 has witnessed notable whale movements indicating major accumulation activity across the cryptocurrency ecosystem. These large-scale transactions represent more than simple price manipulation attempts, they reflect fundamental shifts in how sophisticated investors view digital assets within their portfolio construction frameworks.

The accumulation patterns observed suggest that major players remain fundamentally optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory despite short-term volatility. This institutional confidence manifests not just in direct Bitcoin purchases but also through strategic positioning in related ecosystem tokens and infrastructure plays. The maturation of this institutional participation represents a crucial evolution from the retail-driven markets of previous cycles.

Technical analysis reveals additional layers of market structure worth examining. Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase, as identified by prominent market research firms, presents what many consider a critical juncture for investors seeking optimal entry points. This period of relative price stability allows market participants to reassess positioning while providing clarity about emerging trends.

The holding patterns of long-term investors suggest a potential resumption of the broader uptrend beginning in late September 2025. Such patterns matter because they reflect the behavior of investors with significant skin in the game, those who have historically demonstrated better timing and conviction than short-term traders. The technical indicators collectively suggest that while immediate price action may remain range-bound, the underlying trend continues developing positively.

The broader market context surrounding Bitcoin’s movement deserves careful consideration. Traditional financial markets exhibit mixed risk sentiment following weaker-than-expected US labour market data, creating an environment where alternative assets gain relative appeal. The Federal Reserve’s evolving stance on interest rates, with voting members advocating for multiple cuts in coming months, establishes a macroeconomic backdrop increasingly favourable for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

While Bitcoin maintains its unique market dynamics, these broader macroeconomic shifts create tailwinds that cannot be ignored. The cryptocurrency’s recent performance relative to traditional risk assets demonstrates its evolving role within the global financial ecosystem, not as a pure alternative but as a distinct asset class with its own fundamental drivers.

Market structure analysis reveals fascinating developments in Bitcoin’s maturation process. The forecasted average price of US$118,909.63 for September 2025 represents a potential 13.7 per cent return from current levels. This projection matters because it reflects institutional consensus rather than speculative fantasy.

More importantly, the technical setup suggests that Bitcoin’s current trading above US$111,000 creates a foundation for potential advancement toward US$120,000 if key resistance levels break decisively. These technical targets aren’t arbitrary, they emerge from the confluence of historical price action, order book dynamics, and institutional positioning. The market’s ability to defend these levels during periods of broader financial stress demonstrates growing resilience.

The liquidation landscape presents both risks and opportunities for sophisticated market participants. Analysts warn that certain price levels serve as critical support zones where significant bounce potential exists. These technical thresholds represent more than just chart patterns, they reflect actual concentrations of buy orders where institutional players have established strategic positions.

The market’s reaction to these levels provides valuable insight into underlying supply and demand dynamics. While short-term volatility may persist, the structural positioning suggests that any significant pullbacks could present strategic entry opportunities for long-term oriented investors.

I observe that Bitcoin’s current market behaviour reflects a fundamental shift in its evolutionary trajectory. No longer primarily driven by retail speculation, the asset increasingly demonstrates characteristics of institutional ownership patterns seen in more mature markets. The accumulation activity by corporate entities and sophisticated investors creates structural scarcity that differs fundamentally from previous market cycles.

While technical levels provide useful reference points, the underlying shift in market composition represents the most significant development. The convergence of technical support, institutional demand, and favourable macroeconomic conditions creates a compelling narrative about Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance.

Looking ahead, several key factors warrant close monitoring. The ability of Bitcoin to maintain positions above critical support levels will determine near-term trajectory, while institutional accumulation patterns may provide leading indicators of longer-term direction. The interplay between traditional market volatility and cryptocurrency performance will continue evolving as digital assets gain broader acceptance.

Most importantly, the market’s reaction to potential macroeconomic surprises will test Bitcoin’s status as both a risk asset and potential store of value. The coming weeks may prove decisive in determining whether current consolidation transitions into the next major upward move.

The maturation of Bitcoin’s market structure represents one of the most significant developments in modern financial history. What began as a niche technological experiment has evolved into a legitimate asset class with sophisticated market participants, established technical patterns, and meaningful institutional adoption. While challenges remain, the current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin continues progressing along its path toward broader financial integration.

The September 2025 price action may ultimately be remembered as a critical consolidation phase preceding the next major growth phase in cryptocurrency’s evolution. As market participants navigate these complex dynamics, maintaining perspective about both technical realities and fundamental developments remains essential for understanding this rapidly evolving asset class.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-just-changed-everything-why-bitcoin-could-surge-before-october-20250904/

 

 

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Navigating the Crypto Frontier: Insights from Anndy Lian at Bitcoin Asia 2025

Anndy Lian
Navigating the Crypto Frontier: Insights from Anndy Lian at Bitcoin Asia 2025

During the Bitcoin Asia 2025 conference in Hong Kong, hosted by Bitcoin Conference Asia, Lian sat down with Chinsanity on The Chinsanity Show, powered by 852 Web 3. The conversation delved into Bitcoin policy, market dynamics, institutional influences, and bold forecasts for the year ahead. This article captures the essence of their discussion, highlighting key takeaways for enthusiasts and investors alike.

Bitcoin Policy: Asia’s Cautious and Promising Path

The interview began with Lian reflecting on his recent panel discussion at the conference, which centered on Bitcoin policy and governmental adoption. He contrasted the swift policy shifts in the United States, fueled by a change in administration under figures like Donald Trump, with Asia’s more measured approach. “In the US, it seemed sudden from a media standpoint,” Lian noted. “Suddenly, they love Bitcoin, thanks to Trump and the frameworks built beforehand.”In Asia, the landscape is diverse and evolving. Lian praised Hong Kong for its transformation from skepticism toward digital currencies to a bullish, pro-crypto stance. “Hong Kong is doing a good job,” he said, pointing out how regulators are actively promoting the region as a hub: “Hey, come to Hong Kong and do business.” Other nations are following suit. Pakistan, Bhutan, and the Philippines have introduced supportive Bitcoin policies, focusing on sustainable frameworks rather than immediate reserves. “They’re trying their best to create more supportive environments,” Lian explained. He acknowledged that countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand lag behind, but he expressed optimism about their efforts.This regional push aligns with broader market positivity. With Bitcoin prices soaring and institutions injecting capital, Lian sees a “win-win” scenario. “The energy is perfect right now,” he emphasized, crediting the bullish market for accelerating policy adoption. Still, he cautioned that Asia is still catching up to the US’s aggressive pace, underscoring the need for balanced, long-term strategies.Conference Vibes: Mining, Learning, and Community SpiritBitcoin Asia 2025 buzzed with energy, a stark contrast to some past events where attendance waned. Lian described the atmosphere as vibrant, filled with “Bitcoin whales” and mining enthusiasts. “I saw a few of my friends, many are Bitcoin whales here to look at mining,” he shared. The focus on mining isn’t surprising, given Asia’s historical dominance in the sector, particularly among Chinese communities despite domestic bans.Lian expressed concerns about mining’s future sustainability. “A huge part of the mining power still belongs to Chinese people or those living abroad,” he said. However, with rising energy costs and fluctuating Bitcoin prices, he warned that the industry could face challenges. “If the price doesn’t catch up, many miners might say goodbye, it’s not sustainable.” He likened it to a “sunsetting industry” for newcomers, though established players like those in Bhutan have built resilient models by planning for the long haul.What stood out most was the audience’s engagement. Unlike conferences where stages feel empty, Bitcoin Asia had packed halls with attendees taking notes, filming, and actively participating. “They want to learn,” Lian observed. “The mining industry in Asia is mature; they’ve been doing it for a long time, and electricity here isn’t too expensive.” He attributed this to a desire for new trends and re-education, with bloggers and influencers using the event to engage their followers. “It’s a positive sign,” he added, noting the influx of Chinese and Hong Kong participants fostering a collaborative vibe.Market Trends: Institutions vs. Retail, and the Risks AheadShifting to market analysis, Lian highlighted the bullish sentiment in crypto, with Bitcoin surpassing previous highs. “Crypto has been bullish this year,” he said, joking about how investors now get “mad” if Bitcoin dips below $100,000, a far cry from the last cycle’s peak at $69,000 and subsequent drop to $20,000.This optimism comes with caveats. Lian pointed out the shift from retail-driven markets to institutional dominance. “In the past, power lay with retail guys; now it’s institutions,” he explained. Figures like Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and others hold massive sway. “If big companies like Meta Planet sell, the downstream effect is huge, they’re the foundation.” He advised monitoring fundraising efforts: “As long as Saylor can raise more money, the bull market continues.”Retail investors face barriers. “How many retail guys will put $1 million into crypto?” Lian questioned. While institutions buy through ETFs or spot markets, retail participation remains limited, making the market “institution-only” in recent months. For mainstream adoption, he stressed the need for balance: “Institutions can be robotic, hit a threshold and goodbye. Retail often holds long-term, like a 401k.”Lian also touched on altcoins, noting healthy cycles where profits from Ethereum sales fund new projects. He worried about cash-outs that sideline sellers permanently. “It’s hard to come back in if prices rise again.”Eric Trump’s Presence and Hong Kong’s Crypto AmbitionsAn intriguing highlight was Eric Trump’s attendance at the conference. Lian speculated on its implications, viewing it as a boost for global Bitcoin support. “Eric is here mainly to support Bitcoin globally,” he said. However, he noted a twist: reports from the South China Morning Post indicated that regulators pulled out from keynote speeches due to Trump’s presence. “I’m not sure what’s the agenda, but it should be aligned,” Lian remarked. Despite the uncertainty, whether political or otherwise, he believed the event should have proceeded as planned.Lian emphasized Hong Kong’s role as a hub for digital assets. Right after the interview, he planned to attend another event hosted by Annum Capital, focusing on stablecoins, a hot topic in the region. “I even wrote a report with them about stablecoins,” he shared. These gatherings, often involving bankers in suits, reveal growing curiosity among traditional finance executives. “They want to know more,” Lian said, seeing it as a bullish sign. The challenge lies in execution: “How are they going to execute with their clients’ money? I hope to see more action than just a good lunch.”Building a Sustainable Ecosystem: Collaboration Over SilosLian stressed the importance of unity in the crypto space. “Everybody is playing a silos game, maxis, cabals, working within small groups,” he observed. To sustain the ecosystem, the industry must focus on the bigger picture: attracting more funds and participants. “We need to bring more people in,” he urged, particularly from populous nations like China and India, where tech-savvy populations could drive growth.He advocated for collaborative efforts, such as a digital asset association for media and stakeholders to share topics and journalism standards. “It’s all about working together,” Lian said. For miners, this means optimizing efficiency for energy, environment, and security. “Once mining becomes unsustainable, what happens to the network’s security?” he pondered. Echoing the adage that a rising tide lifts all boats, he noted that web3 remains small and requires collective support.Predictions for 2025: Bullish HorizonsWrapping up, Lian shared optimistic predictions for the remainder of 2025. “The next four months should bring a much better cycle,” he forecasted. Dips recover quickly due to institutional support, pushing Bitcoin toward $150,000 or higher. Ethereum could reach $6,000, based on charts, while BNB might surge dramatically due to controlled supply and burns. “BNB is going to go for a really big number,” he predicted.Lian’s insights paint a picture of an industry at a pivotal moment, balancing innovation with sustainability. As governments, institutions, and communities align, the crypto frontier promises exciting developments. For those navigating this space, his advice is clear: stay informed, collaborate, and prepare for growth.https://youtu.be/gME1ERHPU1E?si=u6K9h...

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Global Game Theory: The Response to America’s Changing Bitcoin Policy- Bitcoin Conference Asia, Hong Kong

Anndy Lian
Global Game Theory: The Response to America’s Changing Bitcoin Policy- Bitcoin Conference Asia, Hong Kong

Imagine the United States positioning itself as a dominant force in Bitcoin: What ripple effects would that create worldwide? Join host Grant McCarty from the Bitcoin Policy Institute as he moderates a discussion with experts Jeremy Tan, Nenter Chow, Anndy Lian, and Bilal Bin Saqib. Covering topics like Pakistan’s Bitcoin holdings, Singapore’s adaptation tactics, and Bitcoin’s influence on widespread adoption, this panel delves into Bitcoin’s evolving international strategic dynamics.

00:00 Intro & Panelist Introductions
02:20 Shifts in US and Global Bitcoin Policy
05:20 Reactions from Around the World
08:08 Impact on Private Sector & Financial Markets
12:40 Building Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
14:39 Challenges and Opportunities for National Bitcoin Strategies
17:36 Foundations for Bitcoin Economies
20:00 Importance of Financial Literacy and Education
23:03 Educating Lawmakers and the Public
25:01 Local and Global Pressures on Policy Formation
27:44 International Cooperation & Policy Needs
29:37 Calls for Standardized Policy and Global Frameworks
31:02 Final Thoughts & Recommendations
35:01 Panel Wrap Up & Closing

 

#BitcoinAsia2025 #Bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinPolicy #BitcoinReserve #BitcoinFuture #GlobalBitcoin #BitcoinConference #BitcoinDiplomacy #BitcoinEducation

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Anndy Lian Warns Against Hasty Bitcoin Adoption, Urges Foundational Policymaking

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian Warns Against Hasty Bitcoin Adoption, Urges Foundational Policymaking

A leading intergovernmental advisor is issuing a stark warning to nations racing to adopt Bitcoin: building massive reserves without a solid policy foundation is like building on sand. Speaking at Bitcoin Conference Asia 2025, author and blockchain advisor Anndy Lian urges governments to prioritize international cooperation and deliberate groundwork over the headline-grabbing rush to accumulate. He argues that without shared standards and a deep understanding of decentralized finance, the global crypto ecosystem risks derailing its own journey.

Key PointsFoundations Before Reserves: Lian argues that foundational policies on regulation, education, and infrastructure must precede the accumulation of national Bitcoin reserves, calling the rapid U.S. approach an exception, not a global template.A Call for Global Coordination: Criticizing the current “siloed” approach by governments, he calls for a new international body for digital assets, similar to the BIS for banking, to establish baseline regulatory standards for all nations.Understanding Decentralization is Critical: Lian warns that policymakers’ widespread ignorance of DeFi and decentralized networks is dangerous, stressing that these systems must be recognized as legitimate and central to the future of finance.“You Can’t Build a Bitcoin Economy on Sand”

During the panel “Global Game Theory: The Response to America’s Changing Bitcoin Policy” at Bitcoin Conference Asia, Lian delivered a measured yet powerful perspective on the global landscape. While many focus on national reserves and rapid adoption, he emphasized the need for strategic patience and foundational policy work, warning that ambitious Bitcoin initiatives risk collapse without it.

Lian acknowledged the momentum generated by the United States’ pro-Bitcoin shift. “I love what America is doing right now,” he said. “The Genius Act, the strategic reserve, the market structure legislation—it’s all moving at godlike speed.”

But he quickly added a caution. “That speed is not replicable everywhere. If you zoom out and look at Asia, most countries are still in catch-up mode.” He noted that while some nations are exploring reserves, the majority are focused on more basic steps like asset tokenization and stablecoin regulation.

Related: Shiba Inu Breaks Into Mainstream Finance with New European ETP

For Lian, this slower pace is a necessity. “You can’t build a Bitcoin economy on sand,” he stressed. “Every country needs to build the foundation first—regulation, education, institutional frameworks—before jumping into strategic reserves.”

A Call for Substance Over “PR”

Lian also criticized superficial policy engagement, which he sees as a significant roadblock.

“Right now, you see people flying in, shaking hands, taking photos. CZ comes to Singapore, everyone celebrates. But that’s not policy making. That’s pure PR.” He called for deeper, sustained dialogue between governments and industry experts who can navigate the complexities of custody, compliance, and decentralized networks.

One of his most urgent messages was the need for global coordination to end the confusion caused by nations acting in isolation. “Governments are working in silos,” he said. “What we need is a body, like IATA for aviation or the BIS for banking, that leads a basic regulatory framework for digital assets.” He envisioned a world where every country contributes to shared minimum standards for exchanges, stablecoins, and custody.

Lian also urged policymakers to take decentralized finance seriously. “Most governments have no clue what DeFi is. They think it’s where criminals hide. That ignorance is dangerous.”

Lian issued a final warning and a call to action.

“Stablecoin is not just about Tether or Circle. It’s a new monetary layer. And decentralized networks are not fringe—they are the future. If we don’t build the right policies now, we won’t just miss the train—we’ll derail the entire journey.”

For Lian, the Bitcoin revolution is not won by who accumulates the fastest, but by who understands the deepest and builds the smartest.

The full panel discussion can be viewed on YouTube.

 

Source: https://news.shib.io/2025/09/01/lian-warns-against-hasty-bitcoin-adoption-urges-foundational-policymaking/

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Bitcoin Asia 2025: la promesa del millón de dólares a la urgencia por movilizar el capital inactivo

Anndy Lian
Bitcoin Asia 2025: la promesa del millón de dólares a la urgencia por movilizar el capital inactivo

Bitcoin Asia 2025, celebrado en Hong Kong el 28 y 29 de Agosto, se ha consolidado como uno de los foros más confluidos del ecosistema cripto de la rgión. Durante dos días intensos, reguladores, líderes de la industria, founders e inversores coincidieron en un momento en el que el futuro de Bitcoin y de las finanzas digitales se está reescribiendo en tiempo real. Si hubo un tema que atravesó prácticamente todas las discusiones fue la locked liquidity de Bitcoin: más del 99% de los BTC permanecen en manos de instituciones, exchanges, mineros y tesorerías, sin ser puestos en circulación. El reto es mayúsculo: cómo desbloquear ese capital inactivo y convertirlo en motor de la siguiente ola de crecimiento.

El otro gran eje de la conferencia fue el acercamiento gradual de instituciones y reguladores. Cada vez más, el debate no se centra en si Bitcoin tiene cabida dentro del sistema financiero global, sino bajo qué condiciones. Hong Kong, con su reciente marco regulatorio para stablecoins, se presentó como un auténtico laboratorio de innovación financiera. Las reglas claras ya están atrayendo proyectos, capital y talento, y muchos ven en la ciudad un modelo que China —y quizás otras jurisdicciones de Asia— podrían replicar en los próximos años.

Las voces del escenario

En los paneles principales, las intervenciones dejaron claro que la industria atraviesa un momento de transición. Nenter Chow, director ejecutivo global de BitMart, defendió que el volumen institucional es “esencial” para dar profundidad y estabilidad al mercado. Sin esa participación, dijo, la volatilidad seguirá siendo la norma y el crecimiento estructural será limitado.

CZ, cofundador de Binance, reforzó esa idea insistiendo en que la regulación “tiene que ponerse al día con la innovación”. Señaló el auge de las compañías de tesorería que siguen la estrategia de MicroStrategy: mantener Bitcoin en balance como activo estratégico de largo plazo. “Las instituciones simplemente no podían participar antes en cripto”, explicó, “pero cuanto mayor es la capitalización de mercado, más estabilidad encontramos y más espacio hay para ellas”.

La dimensión geopolítica también ocupó un lugar central. En el panel “Global Game Theory: The Response to America Changing Bitcoin Policy”, Grant McCarty (copresidente del Bitcoin Policy Institute), Bilal Bin Saqib (ministro de Estado para Blockchain en Pakistán) y Anndy Lian (asesor intergubernamental en blockchain) discutieron cómo diferentes países están reaccionando ante los cambios en la política estadounidense hacia Bitcoin. La conclusión fue clara: el futuro de la red no se decidirá solo en Wall Street o Silicon Valley, sino en un tablero internacional cada vez más competitivo.

Eric Trump y la nota política

La aparición de Eric Trump aportó uno de los momentos más comentados de la conferencia. En una charla informal, aseguró que tanto él como su familia habían sido “debanked”, situando a Bitcoin como un seguro frente a la exclusión financiera y al riesgo político. Pero lo que realmente encendió las conversaciones en los pasillos fue su predicción: Bitcoin llegará a un millón de dólares. Aunque polémica, la afirmación capturó la atención del público y puso de relieve las expectativas que aún rodean al activo en plena transición hacia una adopción institucional más amplia.

Hong Kong como epicentro regulatorio

El marco normativo para stablecoins que Hong Kong aprobó recientemente fue otro de los temas omnipresentes. La ciudad está apostando por ser un epicentro regulatorio en Asia, y su movimiento se interpreta como un primer paso hacia la eventual adopción de modelos similares en China. El mensaje es claro: la innovación necesita reglas, y esas reglas pueden convertirse en ventaja competitiva si atraen capital y empresas en busca de certidumbre.

La vida más allá del escenario

Más allá de las conferencias, Bitcoin Asia se extendió por toda Hong Kong gracias a la enorme oferta de side events. Desde desayunos privados con fondos e instituciones hasta encuentros más informales en cafés, rooftops y clubes, la ciudad entera se convirtió en un gran nodo de networking. Allí se tejieron muchas de las conversaciones que probablemente marcarán los próximos meses: alianzas, rondas de inversión, lanzamientos y proyectos que encontraron en la atmósfera del evento el impulso que necesitaban.

La participación china fue especialmente visible. Inversores, comunidades y emprendedores cruzaron la frontera para sumarse a una semana en la que Hong Kong brilló como punto de encuentro regional. Ese interés confirma que Asia, y en particular el mundo chino, seguirá teniendo un papel determinante en el desarrollo de Bitcoin y de DeFi.

La sorpresa del retail

Otro elemento destacado fue la fuerte presencia de retail investors. Jóvenes curiosos, traders independientes y entusiastas de la tecnología acudieron en masa, muchos de ellos buscando su primera exposición al ecosistema. Esa asistencia masiva mostró que el interés por Bitcoin no se limita a las grandes instituciones, sino que sigue latiendo con fuerza en la base de la pirámide.

El contraste fue revelador: en los escenarios, los ejecutivos hablaban de macroestrategias, regulación y adopción institucional; en los pasillos y eventos paralelos, retail investors preguntaban cómo empezar, qué herramientas utilizar o dónde custodiar sus activos. Esa convivencia refleja con claridad la fase de transición en la que se encuentra el sector: entre la sofisticación financiera y la curiosidad popular.

Bitcoin Asia 2025 dejó claro que Hong Kong no es solo un centro regulatorio y de innovación, sino también un puente. Un puente entre Este y Oeste, entre instituciones y retail, entre la infraestructura que se está construyendo y la adopción que ya se siente en la calle. Entre otros, hablamos con Emir Beriker, cofounder and CSO de Union Labs, y de la necesidad de tener interoperabilidad real y casos de uso reales.

Si algo quedó patente es que la liquidez dormida de Bitcoin es hoy el gran desafío: movilizarla de forma segura y eficiente será lo que determine la próxima fase del mercado. Y, al mismo tiempo, que el acercamiento institucional y regulatorio es ya imparable, aunque su ritmo sea gradual. Entre predicciones audaces como la de Eric Trump —Bitcoin a un millón— y la realidad de un sector cada vez más estructurado, Bitcoin Asia mostró que el futuro se construye aquí y ahora, en un cruce vibrante de intereses, culturas y visiones.

5 claves que nos deja Bitcoin Asia 2025La liquidez dormida de Bitcoin
Más del 99% de BTC permanece “locked” en manos de instituciones, exchanges y tesorerías. El gran reto es movilizarlo para impulsar la próxima ola de crecimiento.El acercamiento institucional es ya un hecho
De Nenter Chow (BitMart) a CZ (Binance), los ponentes coincidieron: la entrada de instituciones es esencial para dar estabilidad y profundidad al mercado.Regulación en Hong Kong: un sandbox para Asia
El nuevo marco para stablecoins convierte a la ciudad en un laboratorio regulatorio que podría inspirar a China y a otros países de la región.La irrupción del retail
La fuerte asistencia de retail investors demostró que la curiosidad ciudadana sigue siendo un motor clave de adopción, en paralelo al interés institucional.Predicciones audaces y clima de expectativas
Eric Trump no solo denunció haber sido “debanked”; también afirmó que Bitcoin llegará a un millón de dólares, reflejando el clima de ambición y expectativas que rodea al activo.

 

Source: https://www.criptotendencias.com/criptoeventos/bitcoin-asia-2025-la-promesa-del-millon-de-dolares-a-la-urgencia-por-movilizar-el-capital-inactivo/

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Bitcoin in Asia 2025: The Promise and Mobilization of One Million Dollars in Inactive Capital

Anndy Lian
Bitcoin in Asia 2025: The Promise and Mobilization of One Million Dollars in Inactive Capital

Beyond liquidity, a key focus of the conference was the increasing engagement of institutional players and the demand for clear regulatory guidelines. The debate is no longer centered on whether Bitcoin deserves a place within the global financial system, but rather, under what conditions it can be safely integrated. Hong Kong, with its newly established regulatory framework for stablecoins, presented itself as a pioneering “Financial Innovation Laboratory.”

This proactive approach to regulation is already attracting projects, capital, and talent, positioning the city as a potential model for other Asian jurisdictions, including mainland China. The emphasis on clear rules signals a shift towards fostering innovation within a secure and predictable habitat.

Key Voices Weigh In on Bitcoin’s Future

Panels featured prominent figures sharing their perspectives on the industry’s current transition. Ninter Chow, Global Executive Director of Bitmart, underscored the “essential” nature of institutional volume for providing market depth and stability. He cautioned that without this participation, volatility will likely persist, hindering enduring growth.

Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ and co-founder of Binance, echoed this sentiment, advocating for regulations that keep pace with innovation. He highlighted the growing trend of companies adopting a Microstrategy-inspired strategy – holding Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. “Institutions now have more opportunities to participate in crypto,” CZ explained, “and greater market capitalization translates to increased stability and broader participation.”

Geopolitical Considerations Shape Bitcoin’s Trajectory

The conference also addressed the geopolitical dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s future. A panel discussion titled “Global Game Theory: The Response to America Changing Bitcoin policy” featured Grant McCarty,co-president of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, Bin Saqib, Minister of State for Blockchain in Pakistan, and Anndy Lian, an Intergovernmental Advisor at Blockchain. The consensus was that Bitcoin’s future will be persistent not solely by developments in the United States,but through a complex interplay of international policies and responses.

Eric Trump’s Bold Prediction Sparks Debate

A notable moment arrived with the appearance of Eric Trump, who revealed that he and his family had been “debanked,” leading them to view Bitcoin as a safeguard against financial exclusion and political risk. However, it was his bullish prediction – that Bitcoin will reach a value of one million dollars – that truly captured the audience’s attention. While controversial, Trump’s forecast amplified ongoing expectations surrounding the asset as it gains more mainstream acceptance.

Hong Kong’s Ascendance as a Regulatory Hub

The newly approved regulatory framework for stablecoins solidified Hong Kong’s position as a leading regulatory center in Asia. This move is interpreted as a crucial step toward broader adoption of similar models in China, signaling a commitment to balancing innovation with responsible oversight. It demonstrates a clear message: clear rules are essential for attracting investment and fostering growth.

Networking and Collaboration Fuel Momentum

Beyond the formal sessions, Bitcoin Asia 2025 fostered numerous networking opportunities. Attendees participated in private breakfasts, informal meetings, and social events, creating a vibrant hub for forging alliances, securing investment, and launching new projects. Notably, Chinese investors, communities, and entrepreneurs showed significant interest, reinforcing Asia’s vital role in the advancement of Bitcoin and Decentralized Finance (DeFi).

The Rise of Retail Investment

The conference also witnessed a strong presence of retail investors – young, tech-savvy individuals eager to learn about and participate in the ecosystem. This demonstrated that interest in Bitcoin extends beyond institutional investors and continues to thrive at the grassroots level. The juxtaposition of complex discussions on stage with the practical questions from retail investors underscored the industry’s current transition phase.

Key Takeaways from Bitcoin Asia 2025Key AreaInsightBitcoin LiquidityOver 99% of BTC is currently locked, necessitating strategies for unlocking it.Institutional InvolvementEssential for market stability and growth, according to industry leaders.Hong Kong RegulationServes as a potential model for Asia and beyond.Retail ParticipationRemains a crucial driver of adoption and ecosystem growth.Future OutlookBold predictions, like Eric Trump’s $1 million target, highlight ongoing optimism.

Bitcoin Asia 2025 underscored Hong Kong’s role as a bridge – connecting East and West, institutions and retail investors, established infrastructure and emerging adoption. The event highlighted that mobilizing Bitcoin’s inactive liquidity is the foremost challenge, and that the growing integration of institutions and regulators is an unstoppable force.

Understanding Bitcoin Liquidity

Bitcoin liquidity refers to how easily Bitcoin can be bought or sold without significantly impacting its price. High liquidity means there are many buyers and sellers, ensuring smooth transactions. Currently, the vast majority of Bitcoin is held long-term, reducing the circulating supply and possibly hindering short-term market efficiency. According to a report by Glassnode (October 2023), over 70% of Bitcoin hasn’t been moved in over a year.

Did You Know? The concept of ‘lost’ Bitcoin, due to forgotten private keys, also contributes to the locked supply, albeit a smaller percentage.

Pro Tip: Diversification is key when investing in digital assets. Don’t allocate more capital than you can afford to lose.

Frequently Asked Questions about BitcoinWhat is Bitcoin liquidity? Bitcoin liquidity refers to the ease with which Bitcoin can be bought or sold without affecting its price.Why is unlocking Bitcoin liquidity significant? Unlocking liquidity can fuel market growth and reduce volatility.What role does regulation play in Bitcoin adoption? Clear regulatory frameworks can attract investment and foster innovation.Is Hong Kong becoming a hub for Bitcoin and crypto? Yes, its new regulatory framework positions it as a key regional center.What are the potential risks of investing in Bitcoin? Bitcoin is a volatile asset, and investors should be aware of the risks involved.Could Bitcoin really reach $1 million? While Eric Trump predicted this, it’s a highly speculative forecast dependent on numerous factors.How can retail investors get involved with Bitcoin? Through exchanges, brokers, and other platforms offering Bitcoin trading and investment services.

What are your thoughts on the future of Bitcoin? Share your predictions and insights in the comments below!

 

 

What specific regulatory hurdles in Asian countries contribute to Bitcoin remaining inactive, and how might clearer regulations impact the mobilization of this capital?

 

Bitcoin in Asia 2025: The Promise and Mobilization of One Million Dollars in Inactive CapitalThe Sleeping Giant: Unlocking Asia’s Bitcoin Holdings

Asia holds a significant, yet largely untapped, potential within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Estimates suggest millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin remain dormant across the continent – held in cold storage, forgotten wallets, or by individuals unfamiliar with its current utility. In 2025, we’re seeing a growing momentum to unlock this “inactive capital,” and the potential impact on regional economies and the broader cryptocurrency market is significant. This isn’t just about price thankfulness; it’s about enabling financial inclusion, fostering innovation, and challenging conventional financial systems.

Regional Hotspots for Bitcoin Adoption & Inactive BTC

While pan-Asian trends are emerging, specific countries are leading the charge in both Bitcoin adoption and the potential for mobilizing inactive holdings.

Vietnam: A consistently high ranking in the Global Crypto Adoption Index, Vietnam boasts a tech-savvy population and a strong appetite for alternative finance. A significant portion of early Bitcoin adopters are believed to have long-term holdings.

Philippines: Remittance-heavy economies like the Philippines are increasingly turning to Bitcoin for faster, cheaper cross-border payments. Many early users may have accumulated Bitcoin as a means to circumvent traditional banking fees.

Hong Kong: Despite recent regulatory shifts, Hong Kong remains a crucial financial hub and a focal point for Bitcoin events. The upcoming “Bitcoin Asia” conference (August 28th & 29th, 2025) signals continued interest and investment in the space. https://bitcoinsaigon.org/bitcoin-asia-hongkong-2025/

Singapore: A leading fintech hub, Singapore is attracting Bitcoin-related businesses and investors, creating an environment conducive to unlocking dormant funds.

Indonesia: With a large unbanked population, Bitcoin offers a pathway to financial inclusion for millions of Indonesians.

Why is Bitcoin Remaining Inactive?

Several factors contribute to the large volume of inactive Bitcoin in Asia:

Lost private Keys: A common issue globally, lost or forgotten private keys render Bitcoin inaccessible.Forgotten Wallets: Early adopters often experimented with various wallets, some of which are now lost or inaccessible.Lack of Financial Literacy: Many individuals who acquired Bitcoin early on may not fully understand its potential or how to access and utilize their holdings.Regulatory Uncertainty: Shifting regulatory landscapes in some Asian countries have created hesitancy among potential spenders.Long-term Hodling: A significant portion of inactive Bitcoin is simply held by long-term investors who believe in its future value and have no immediate plans to sell.Mobilizing Inactive Capital: Strategies and Solutions

Several initiatives are underway to unlock this dormant wealth:

Key Recovery Services: Companies specializing in private key recovery are gaining traction,offering solutions for individuals who have lost access to their wallets.

Educational Programs: Increased financial literacy programs focused on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are empowering users to understand and manage their holdings.

User-Kind Wallets & Exchanges: The progress of more intuitive and secure wallets and exchanges is making it easier for individuals to access and trade Bitcoin.

Bitcoin-Backed Loans: Platforms offering loans collateralized by Bitcoin allow holders to access liquidity without selling their assets.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Integration: Integrating Bitcoin into DeFi protocols opens up new opportunities for earning yield and utilizing Bitcoin in various financial applications.

The Role of Bitcoin Events & Conferences

Events like “Bitcoin Asia” in Hong Kong are crucial for fostering collaboration, sharing knowledge, and driving adoption. These conferences bring together industry leaders, developers, investors, and enthusiasts, creating a vibrant ecosystem that encourages innovation and unlocks new opportunities. They also serve as platforms for educating the public about the benefits of Bitcoin and addressing common misconceptions.

Benefits of Mobilizing Inactive Bitcoin in Asia

Economic Growth: Increased Bitcoin circulation can stimulate economic activity, particularly in developing countries.

Financial Inclusion: Bitcoin provides access to financial services for the unbanked and underbanked populations.

Innovation: Unlocking capital fuels innovation in the Bitcoin and broader blockchain space.

Increased Market Liquidity: Mobilizing inactive Bitcoin increases liquidity in the market, making it more efficient.

Empowerment: Individuals gain greater control over their finances and participate in a decentralized financial system.

Practical Tips for Accessing Your Bitcoin

If you believe you have inactive Bitcoin, here are some steps you can take:

Search Your Records: Thoroughly review old emails, hard drives, and notebooks for wallet information, private keys, or seed phrases.Contact Wallet Providers: If you remember the wallet provider, contact their support team for assistance.Explore Key Recovery Services: Consider using a reputable key recovery service if you’ve exhausted other options. Exercise caution and thoroughly research any service before entrusting it with your information.*Consult with a Bitcoin Expert: Seek guidance from an informed Bitcoin professional.

 

Source: https://www.archyde.com/bitcoin-in-asia-2025-the-promise-and-mobilization-of-one-million-dollars-in-inactive-capital/

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Anndy Lian achieves top rank on Binance Square

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian achieves top rank on Binance Square

Anndy Lian, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry, announced his achievement of reaching the top spot on Binance Square last week.

Binance Square, a growing platform for crypto discussions and insights, has become a beacon for thought leaders and enthusiasts alike. Lian’s rise to the number one position highlights his influence and active engagement within the community. This milestone underscores Lian’s ongoing commitment to expanding his presence and impact in the crypto world.

 

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/440802-anndy-lian-binance/

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The great repricing: How fiscal anxiety is reshaping global markets from bonds to Bitcoin

Anndy Lian
The great repricing: How fiscal anxiety is reshaping global markets from bonds to Bitcoin

Global markets have entered a phase of heightened caution as fiscal stability concerns ripple across major economies, prompting investors to reassess risk assets and flock toward safer havens.

Investors pulled back from equities amid worries over government debt levels and potential policy missteps, leading to declines in key indices. This retreat reflects broader anxieties about how governments will manage swelling deficits in an environment of elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

This pullback serves as a necessary correction after months of optimism driven by central bank easing expectations, but it also highlights vulnerabilities that could persist if fiscal policies fail to instil confidence. The interplay between rising yields and weakening currencies underscores a market grappling with the realities of post-pandemic debt burdens, where any sign of instability can quickly amplify losses.

US equities under pressure

In the United States, stock markets experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.7 per cent, the NASDAQ falling 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones slipping 0.6 per cent. These moves came as traders digested ongoing fiscal debates in Washington, including discussions around debt ceilings and spending priorities that could strain the economy further.

Federal Reserve outlook and market pause

The broader context involves speculation about Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with markets pricing in a high probability of a September cut amid softening economic data. From my perspective, these dips in equities represent a healthy pause rather than the start of a deeper bear market, as underlying corporate earnings remain robust in sectors like technology and consumer goods.

If fiscal concerns escalate into actual policy gridlock, we could see more pronounced selling pressure, especially in overvalued tech stocks that have led the rally so far this year.

Dollar strength amid global uncertainty

The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to close at 98.33, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid global uncertainties. This uptick pushed the index higher to 98.37 in subsequent trading, reflecting weakness in counterparts like the British pound and Japanese yen.

The dollar’s resilience stems from relative economic strength in the US compared to Europe and Asia, where growth forecasts have been revised downward due to trade tensions and energy supply risks. I believe the dollar’s strength will continue in the near term, acting as a buffer against imported inflation, but it risks exacerbating export challenges for American firms if it appreciates too aggressively.

Rising yields and treasury market dynamics

US Treasuries faced selling pressure, with yields on the 10-year note climbing five basis points to around 4.28 per cent. This increase followed weakness in European bonds, where longer-dated securities bore the brunt of investor unease. The par yield curve data for early 2025 shows a steepening trend, indicating market expectations for higher long-term rates amid persistent inflation worries.

In my opinion, this yield surge signals investor skepticism about the Fed’s ability to engineer a soft landing without reigniting price pressures, particularly if fiscal spending remains unchecked. Treasuries, traditionally a refuge, now compete with alternatives like gold, which offer hedges against both inflation and currency debasement.

UK fiscal challenges and gilt sell-off

Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom grapples with its own fiscal headaches, as long-term bond yields soared to levels not seen since 1998. The 30-year gilt yield jumped to 5.72 per cent, driven by a sell-off that also dragged the pound lower by as much as 1.5 per cent against the dollar.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure to clarify budgetary plans, with investors fretting over potential tax hikes or spending cuts that could stifle growth. The pound traded at a three-week low of 1.3375 against the dollar, highlighting the currency’s vulnerability to domestic policy shifts.

I see this as a critical juncture for the UK economy, where Starmer’s administration must balance fiscal prudence with economic stimulus to avoid a prolonged sterling slump. The surge in yields, while painful for borrowers, might force necessary reforms, but it risks tipping the economy into recession if not managed carefully.

Commodities: Gold and oil diverge

Commodities provided a mixed picture, with gold surging 2.2 per cent to a record high of US$3,533 per ounce. This rally gained traction from expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over the central bank’s independence in the face of political pressures.

Analysts project gold averaging US$3,220 in 2025, buoyed by seasonal demand and monetary easing. Brent crude oil edged up 0.7 per cent, as traders weighed supply risks from renewed US sanctions on Russia and OPEC+’s reluctance to increase output. Ukrainian drone attacks and geopolitical escalations have kept prices supported, with Brent trading around US$68 per barrel.

Gold’s ascent underscores its role as a premier safe-haven asset in uncertain times, potentially outperforming equities if fiscal woes deepen. Oil’s modest gains, meanwhile, reflect a delicate balance between supply disruptions and demand concerns, with OPEC+’s upcoming meeting likely to dictate near-term direction.

Asian markets and big tech boost

Asian equity indices opened lower in early trading, mirroring the global risk-off mood, while US equity futures ticked higher, supported by after-hours gains in Alphabet following a favourable antitrust ruling.

A federal judge decided Google would not need to divest its Chrome browser, sparking an eight per cent surge in Alphabet’s stock. This decision avoided harsher penalties, boosting investor confidence in big tech. I interpret this as a positive for the broader market, as it reduces regulatory overhang on tech giants, potentially fuelling a rebound in US indices despite Asian weakness.

In foreign exchange markets, the USD/JPY pair rose 0.8 per cent to 148.40, its highest since early August, amid fiscal concerns in Japan. Near-term support for GBP/USD lies at 1.3500-1.3560, while resistance for USD/JPY is at 148.40-148.90. These levels suggest potential consolidation as traders await clearer signals from central banks.

Bitcoin momentum and institutional interest

Turning to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 1.63 per cent to US$111,342.85 over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader market’s 1.6 per cent gain and reversing a 2.95 per cent decline over the prior 30 days. This uptick draws from bullish institutional sentiment and technical momentum.

JPMorgan’s declaration that Bitcoin appears undervalued relative to gold stands out as a key driver. The bank notes Bitcoin’s volatility has plummeted from 60 per cent to 30 per cent over six months, the narrowest gap with gold ever recorded. Their volatility-adjusted model pegs Bitcoin’s fair value at US$126,000, about 13 per cent above current levels.

This assessment positions Bitcoin as digital gold, attracting risk-averse institutions. BlackRock’s US$58 billion stake in Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations, now holding six per cent of supply, bolster this demand. However, Bitcoin lingers 12 per cent below its recent all-time high, offering upside potential if stability holds.

I find this JPMorgan call compelling, as it marks a shift from traditional finance’s skepticism toward embracing Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. Reduced volatility not only draws in more capital but also diminishes the narrative of Bitcoin as a speculative gamble, paving the way for broader adoption.

Whale accumulation and custody shifts present a mixed but largely positive impact. Institutions like MicroStrategy have added 41,875 BTC since April 2025, while custodians such as Coinbase and Anchorage Digital manage about 80 per cent of ETF-held Bitcoin. Exchange reserves have hit multi-year lows as coins move to custody, reducing immediate sell pressure. This centralisation raises risks if regulators scrutinise custodians or liquidity issues arise. Retail participation stays muted, capping organic demand.

Recent data shows whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC adding 16,000 coins during dips, while smaller wallets sold off. From my standpoint, this dynamic favours bulls in the long run, as institutional hoarding creates scarcity, but it demands vigilance against concentration risks that could amplify volatility in downturns.

Technically, Bitcoin shows neutral to bullish signals. The price sits above the 200-day simple moving average at US$101,388, with the 50-day SMA at US$114,675 nearing a golden cross. The RSI-14 at 45.54 indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD at -1,830 suggests consolidation. Fibonacci retracement points to resistance at US$113,836 and US$115,864.

A golden cross could draw algorithmic traders, but mixed indicators imply a period of range-bound trading. Predictions see Bitcoin reaching US$120,593 by early September. I view these technicals as supportive of gradual upside, particularly if Bitcoin breaks above US$115,864, which might trigger fresh buying. Failure to do so could test support at US$107,271, but overall, the setup aligns with institutional optimism.

On X, discussions echo this sentiment, with users highlighting JPMorgan’s undervalued call and whale accumulations as bullish catalysts. Posts note corporate treasuries going crypto-native, like SharpLink Gaming’s ETH buys, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal. Semantic searches reveal rising institutional sentiment since August, with whales adding significant holdings.

In my opinion, these trends solidify Bitcoin’s trajectory toward US$126,000, driven by convergence with gold and structural demand shifts. While global fiscal concerns weigh on traditional markets, Bitcoin’s resilience positions it as a standout performer, potentially decoupling from equity weakness if adoption accelerates.

Conclusion: Safe havens and Bitcoin’s rise

In summary, the retreat in risk sentiment amid fiscal worries has pressured stocks and currencies, but commodities like gold and Bitcoin shine as hedges. The UK’s bond turmoil exemplifies broader challenges, while US futures hint at selective recoveries.

For Bitcoin, the combination of undervaluation signals, whale activity, and technical poise suggests substantial upside ahead. As a journalist tracking these developments, I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s role in portfolios, viewing current dips as entry points in a maturing asset class.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-repricing-how-fiscal-anxiety-is-reshaping-global-markets-from-bonds-to-bitcoin-20250903/

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Top Crypto and Blockchain Events to Unveil This Week

Anndy Lian
Top Crypto and Blockchain Events to Unveil This Week

The worldwide crypto and blockchain community is getting ready for the key events to take place over this week. In this respect, the top crypto events to occur between the 1st and 7th of September 2025 include “Taipei Blockchain Week 205,” “ETHWarsaw 2025,” and “Bitcoin Indonesia Conference.” These conferences focus on bringing together the top industry experts, enthusiasts, investors, and developers to delve deeper into decentralized innovation. Keeping this in view, each of these events promises an unparalleled merger of insights, practical strategies, and cultural exchanges to drive blockchain advancement.

Taipei Blockchain Week 2025

The respective crypto conference is set to take place between the 4th and 6th of September in Taiwan’s Taipei City. The event is devoted to highlighting the role of the country in the worldwide blockchain development. Its theme “Onboard” will reportedly be unfolded across 5 warehouse venues. They will feature 3 phases, 60+ partners and sponsors, as well as 200+ speakers. All of the participants will focus on the new ways to accelerate Web3 innovation and adoption. The notable speakers to participate in the event include BiGo’s Abel Seow, Anndy.com’s Anndy Lian, and Pudgy Penguins’ Cheryl Law, among others.

ETHWarsaw 2025

ETHWarsaw is the 2nd prominent crypto event to occur during this week. The 4-day-long event will start on the 4th of this month in Poland’s capital city Warsaw. The main purpose of this event is to drive crypto and blockchain adoption. In this respect, it will cover a shift from the paternalistic mechanisms to autonomous solutions and personal freedom. The participants will contribute to the establishment of relatively decentralized and reliable social systems.

Particularly, it pays substantial attention to increasing the role of Ethereum in the broader DeFi landscape via advancing sustainability, identity, and governance. The top speakers of this event include Centrifuge’s Mariia Yatsenko, cherry builders’ Deca, and Matter Labs’ Andrii among others.

Bitcoin Indonesia Conference 2025

Bitcoin Indonesia Conference 2025 is set to occur in the Indonesian province of Bali starting from the 5th of this month. The event intends to explore the grassroots adoption, real-world use, and education concerning Bitcoin in the region. The users can expect cultural exchanges, hands-on sessions, workshops, and talks to bolster Bitcoin ecosystems in the vicinity. The noteworthy speakers to take part in this conference include Amity Age’s Dusan Matuska, Bitcoin Chiang Mai’s Jimmy Kostro, and Fedi’s Obi Nwosu among others.
Note: The data has been taken from Crypto Events Global.

 

Source: https://blockchainreporter.net/top-crypto-and-blockchain-events-to-unveil-this-week/

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Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

Anndy Lian
Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

While US markets observed the Labour Day holiday, the quiet trading session masked underlying tensions simmering across multiple continents.

Europe on edge: France’s political turmoil spreads to bonds

European bond markets experienced broad-based weakness, particularly in France, where the spectre of a confidence vote threatening the stability of the government sent ripples through sovereign debt markets. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a critical gauge of perceived risk within the Eurozone’s core, stabilised at 79 basis points. This figure, while slightly below the August 27 peak of 82 basis points, the highest level since January, remains deeply concerning.

Historically, such widening indicates heightened investor anxiety about fiscal sustainability and political cohesion. The French situation is not merely a domestic issue; it directly impacts the broader European project. A collapse of the current government could derail crucial budget negotiations and reignite fears about the Eurozone’s structural fragility, potentially forcing the European Central Bank into an uncomfortable position between managing inflation and preventing a sovereign debt flare-up.

The market’s nervousness reflects a very real possibility that political paralysis could lead to delayed fiscal adjustments, increasing the risk of a ratings downgrade and further capital flight from French assets.

Indonesia’s market shock: Politics trigger capital flight

Turning eastward, Indonesia emerged as a focal point of volatility. Its main stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, plummeted 3.6 per cent on Monday, marking the steepest single-day decline in nearly five months. This sharp selloff was directly attributable to escalating political tensions following the recent presidential election.

The specific nature of these tensions involves contested results and legal challenges that have cast doubt on the smooth transition of power, a critical factor for emerging market stability. Investors reacted swiftly and severely, withdrawing capital perceived as exposed to potential policy uncertainty or social unrest.

The immediate consequence extended beyond equities; yields on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds surged to their highest level in almost three weeks. Rising bond yields signal increased borrowing costs for the government and corporations, tightening financial conditions within the economy.

This dual pressure on stocks and bonds creates a challenging environment for the Bank of Indonesia, which must now weigh the need to potentially support the rupiah and contain inflation against the risk of further stifling economic growth. Indonesia’s vulnerability highlights a recurring theme in emerging markets where political instability can rapidly translate into significant financial market stress, deterring foreign investment and increasing the cost of capital across the board.

Commodities react to sanctions and safe-haven demand

Commodity markets displayed a more mixed picture. The US Dollar Index held relatively steady at 97.81, reflecting a temporary pause in the greenback’s recent trajectory as traders awaited key US economic data. Gold, however, saw a modest increase of 0.8 per cent, climbing to US$3476 per ounce.

This movement suggests a slight shift towards safe-haven assets, possibly driven by the European political anxieties and broader global uncertainties, even if the US market holiday limited overall activity. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.0 per cent to settle at US$68 per barrel.

This gain stemmed from a specific supply disruption: Saudi Arabia and Iraq halted crude oil shipments to a refinery in western India following European Union sanctions. While the immediate impact on global supply appears contained, it underscores the persistent vulnerability of energy markets to geopolitical friction and the complex interplay of international sanctions.

The incident serves as a reminder that regional political conflicts can quickly constrict supply chains, creating localised price spikes even amidst generally stable global oil fundamentals. Early Tuesday trading saw Asian equity indices open higher, potentially reflecting a degree of relief or positioning ahead of anticipated US economic data releases later in the week, though this initial move requires confirmation as trading volumes increase.

Crypto divergence: Bitcoin finds support, Ethereum stumbles

The cryptocurrency sector presented a stark contrast between Bitcoin and Ethereum, revealing divergent market dynamics.

Bitcoin edged up 0.81 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$109,151, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market which saw only a negligible 0.03 per cent gain. This minor recovery, while modest, carries significance as it occurred against a backdrop of a 3.5 per cent monthly decline.

The technical structure provided the immediate catalyst. Bitcoin stabilised just above a critical pivot point at US$108,804 after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated oversold conditions, climbing from 38.59 to 40.56. This technical rebound suggests short-term traders actively bought the dip near this psychological and technical support level, anticipating a bounce.

Simultaneously, institutional activity offered a glimmer of positive sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial inflows totalling US$550 million during the week, a notable figure given the prevailing market uncertainty. This institutional accumulation, even amidst volatility, signals continued long-term conviction from major players, providing a structural underpinning for the asset. However, the broader technical picture remains cautious.

Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages, including the 7-day Simple Moving Average at US$110,039, indicating that the dominant momentum trend is still bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while showing slowing selling pressure at -625, remains firmly in negative territory.

The critical juncture now lies at the US$110,000 psychological and technical resistance level. A sustained break above this mark could trigger significant short-covering and attract fresh buying, potentially altering the near-term trajectory. Conversely, failure to hold above US$108,804 risks a retest of the June swing low near US$107,271, deepening the correction.

Ethereum told a markedly different story, falling 2.26 per cent to US$4,307.74 and significantly underperforming the broader market. Two primary forces drove this weakness. First, a decisive technical breakdown occurred as Ethereum breached the critical support zone at US$4,350 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average around US$4,342. Such breaks often trigger automated stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading systems, accelerating the downward move.

The technical indicators confirmed the bearish shift. The RSI dipped to 42.24, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD histogram at -60.16 exhibited bearish divergence, meaning the price made a lower low but the momentum indicator did not confirm it strongly, often a sign of exhaustion before a potential reversal, though currently reinforcing the downtrend.

The immediate path of least resistance points lower, with the next significant support identified at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$4,344. A decisive close below this level could propel the price towards the stronger 50 per cent Fibonacci support at US$4,155. The second major factor was a substantial outflow from Ethereum ETFs.

On August 18, a significant US$196.6 million was withdrawn from these newly launched products, effectively reversing the positive momentum generated by earlier institutional interest. This outflow directly increased sell-side pressure in the spot market.

Compounding this, large holders, often termed whales, reduced their Ethereum holdings by approximately 1.2 million ETH, representing a value of roughly US$5 billion over the preceding 30 days. Such movements by major players historically erode market confidence and can trigger follow-on selling.

However, a nuanced detail offers a potential counterbalance. Smaller addresses, holding between 10 and 100 ETH often categorised as “sharks” representing active retail or smaller institutional players, accumulated a substantial 4.4 million ETH during the same period.

This suggests that while large entities retreated, a different segment of the market saw value at lower prices, potentially establishing a floor. The long-term picture retains a stabilising element, as approximately US$6.3 billion worth of Ethereum remains locked within the ETF structures, providing a foundational level of institutional support even during periods of outflow volatility.

A fragile global balance ahead

The convergence of these disparate market movements paints a picture of a global financial system operating under significant strain but not yet in crisis.

Political risks in Europe and Asia are actively pricing in potential instability, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for perceived sovereign and emerging market risks. Commodity markets react to both geopolitical friction and the underlying strength or weakness of the US dollar.

Within the volatile cryptocurrency sector, the divergent paths of Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the maturation of the market. Bitcoin increasingly demonstrates characteristics of a macro asset, reacting to broader risk sentiment and attracting institutional capital flows even during downturns, while Ethereum remains more susceptible to technical breakdowns and specific product dynamics like ETF flows.

Traders globally are now intensely focused on upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report. This data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. A stronger-than-expected report could delay anticipated rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and increasing pressure on risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, weaker data could accelerate expectations for monetary easing, potentially providing relief across risk markets. The current environment demands constant vigilance. Thin holiday trading can amplify moves, political risks can escalate rapidly, and technical levels can trigger significant momentum shifts.

The stability observed in some areas, like the US Dollar Index, feels provisional, dependent on the next data point or political development. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional correlations can fracture under stress, and localised political events can have outsized global financial repercussions.

The coming weeks will test whether the current market structure can absorb these pressures or if the underlying tensions will coalesce into a broader reassessment of risk across multiple asset classes. The path forward hinges on the interplay between political resolution, central bank communication, and the resilience of technical support levels holding firm against waves of selling pressure.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-navigate-political-fault-lines-as-technical-rebound-meets-institutional-crosscurrents-20250902/

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