Thomas Frey's Blog, page 45

Every Disaster Has a Beginning: In Search of Anomaly Zero

 

In 2012, when 15-year old Jack Andraka’s uncle died of pancreatic cancer, he decided to look into it. He found that the current test for pancreatic cancer was over 60 years old, cost over $800, and wasn’t very reliable.

For this reason over 85% of pancreatic cancer cases were detected too late, when the chances of survival were only 2%. 

As a bright and inspired young mind, Jack was able to devise a far better testing procedure, which he took to the researchers at Johns Hopkins University. 

The result is a new dipstick-type diagnostic test that uses a paper sensor, similar to that of the diabetic test strip. This strip tests for cancer biomarkers in blood or urine, is over 90% accurate and only costs 3 cents per test.

Jack’s ingenious test strip will soon be used for early testing of other diseases as well. But this line of thinking doesn’t just apply to the medical arena.

We can’t stop a hurricane after its reached full intensity.
We can’t stop an avalanche after it’s halfway down the mountain.
We can’t stop a tidal wave after it already in motion.
We can’t stop a war once the bombs start dropping.
We can’t stop a plague once it’s reached several continents.

As tiny humans battling the giant forces of nature, we need to do battle when the problems are still small. Jack was able to push the discovery of pancreatic cancer far closer to Anomaly Zero. Anomaly Zero is the first detectable sign that something is wrong.

Every major disaster in the world begins with the shifting of a single molecule, a spark of electrical energy, or some synapse firing in a different way.

We may not be able to spot that first sign of change, but can get far closer than what we detect today. So what exactly is Anomaly Zero and how close can we actually get to it and intervene before major damage begins? 

The Butterfly Effect

In 1969, chaos theorist Edward Lorenz used the theoretical example of a butterfly’s wings flapping, where that simple movement became the root cause of a hurricane forming several weeks later on the other side of the planet. This has become known as the butterfly effect.

This type of cause and effect relationship, in chaos theory, is used to describe a nonlinear system where the true sequence of events is so complex that it can only be sorted out after the fact.

Anomaly Zero is different than that. Using an interventionist’s mindset, Anomaly Zero is the theoretical earliest possible point where danger can be confirmed as a real threat. In virtually all cases, it remains theoretical because we are a long ways from both understanding it and figuring out ways to track it.

The primary point of this discussion is simply to move the earliest red flags of detection far closer to the point of origin so most disasters can be averted.

Defining a Minimum Detectable Change

When a forest fire starts, it’s relatively easy to put out the flames when it only covers a few square feet. Once it grows to an entire acre, it becomes far more difficult to contain.

At the same time, not all fires build momentum and turn into disasters. Fires in campgrounds, being carefully monitored by campers, rarely get out of control. So just scouting for fires in a forest will produce lots of meaningless data points, otherwise known as statistical noise.

With enough data points, certain disorders will cause an emerging situation to be flagged, first as noteworthy, something that needs to be monitored, and something that may eventually be upgraded to a dangerous condition.

If we think about change as measured along a 1,000-mile long yardstick, Anomaly Zero is at the beginning, and today’s early warning systems are at the end. Our goal should be to determine the earliest possible point that we can detect a problem?

How can we detect danger earlier, much earlier, while the situation is still controllable? 

Situational Awareness

Everything I’ve discussed so far is about building awareness, and using this added awareness to halt something negative from happening. In this context it becomes easier to visualize a far better early warning system for detecting: 

Natural Disasters
Corruption
Health Issues
Disease Outbreaks
Infrastructure Failures
Environmental Dangers
Deviant Behavior
Much more

When it comes to spotting deviant behavior, we have the potential for intervening and removing the worst of the worst very quickly. Here’s an example.

One of the most notorious serial killers of all times was Pedro Alonso Lopez, known as the “Monster of the Andes,” who butchered enough people to fill a small town. After killing around 100 tribal women in Peru in the 1970s, he was apprehended by tribal forces that were just about ready to execute him when they were convinced by an American missionary to take him to the police instead.

Unfortunately, the police then just let him go, after which Lopez travelled to Ecuador, where he proceeded to kill about 3-4 girls a week, claiming that girls in Ecuador were “more gentle, trusting, and innocent”. This carried on until he was caught in 1980, but police were still unsure as to his guilt. But as luck would have it, a flash flood uncovered a mass grave that had hidden many of his victims, which then led to his arrest.

Once again, for some unexplainable reason, the Ecuadorian government decided to release him in 1998, deporting him to Columbia. Lopez allegedly said that he was being released for “good behavior”. His whereabouts today is unknown.

As we increase our awareness of what’s happening in society, the odds of this kind of deviant behavior being overlooked are dramatically reduced. In most cases, mass murderers like Lopez or Ted Bundy will be red flagged and caught after the first death rather than dozens or hundreds of deaths later.

But what if these types of disasters could be spotted before anyone died? Is there a data-driven version of Minority Report justice that might actually make sense without relying on mystical “precogs” to guide our way? 

Final Thoughts 

Like a single pixel on a trillion pixel image, we quickly lose our ability to find significance in a single point. But it is exactly that, a tiny little signal on the masterpiece of life that determines what happens next.

Every disaster has a lifecycle with a definable beginning, middle, and end. As with every statistical bell curve, the size and shape of the curve represents the overall impact on society.

But disasters are not inevitable. Human intervention can make a huge difference, and the sooner the better.

We are currently building a massive digital infrastructure with the ability to monitor and assess changes happening anywhere in the world in real time. As we move into the big data era, our awareness of pre-disaster conditions will grow exponentially.

Once we can sense an impending disaster, we will need to create response mechanisms capable of mitigating whatever forces are in play.

I’m certainly not deluded into thinking we can eliminate all or even most of the catastrophes we’ll be facing over the coming years. But we have an obligation to deal with these problems in a far better fashion than we currently are. 

And all of this can happen if we focus our attention on the nano-size events happening at Anomaly Zero.

 

Please take a few moments to weigh in on this topic. I’d love to hear what you think.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

Introducing the Fully-Automated 24-Hour City

Fifteen years ago I found myself stranded in the small town of Faith, South Dakota. It was 3:00 am in the morning and my car was out of gas. To give you a better idea of my predicament, this tiny town of 400 people was located 100 miles away from any significant cities.

With my kids sleeping in the front and back seats, my only option was to pull up in front of one of the two gas stations in town and wait until they opened at 6:00 am to continue my journey. After a long day at work and driving 8 hours, only to have my progress halted by this unknown variable was indeed frustrating.

Later I found out that people in this situation were supposed to call the police department and a local cop would help them fill their tank. But I had no idea that was an option. 

Today, most gas stations are equipped with credit card readers and no attendant is necessary for them to operate 24 hours a day. 

As we continue down the path of automation, virtually every city will have 24-hour convenience stores, 24-hour libraries, 24-hour banks, 24-hour churches, 24-hour schools, 24-hour movie theaters, 24-hour bars and restaurants, and even 24-hour shopping centers.

The side effect of a people-less business is that it can operate 24 hours a day for roughly the same cost as a 12-hour operation. With that in mind, here are some of the changes that accompany this shift in lifestyle. (26 Pics)

The Safety Side of a Surveillance Society

Most of us cringe at the notion of having Big Brother looking over our shoulders. The thought of having every quirky move we make captured on camera has us conjuring up notions of blackmail photos, or something comparable to a negative political campaign ad that could be used against us in the future. 

But the same photos that give us Big Brother-phobia also provide safety. Cameras watching the world around us create a visual deterrent to anyone thinking about doing something harmful to us.

Over the coming years the number of surveillance cameras will grow exponentially. The Silicon Valley startup Dropcam is the first major player in this space and is already uploading more hours of video per minute than YouTube.

People-less retail will create a huge demand for cameras and other forms of monitoring technology. At the same time, businesses that could only afford to stay open during peak hours will soon consider a 24-hour version of their operation.

Here are just a few examples of what that will look like. 

Automated convenience store

24-Hour Convenience Stores

Most middle-of-the-night shoppers are not looking for variety, they’re looking for a limited number of basic items, most of which can be sold through vending machines.

Many retailers will look at creating a “store within a store” where the automated vending side of the store operates 24-hours a day, but the expanded services side of the store opens only when their staff is present. 

Below are a number of unusual vending machines being created specifically for this purpose. 

Library vending machine in Taiwan dispensing books, CDs, and magazines

24-Hour Libraries 

With cities continually struggling financially, many libraries are looking at cutting hours to reduce staff time and save money. However, most people going to a library require little, if any, actual staff time. 

Simply adding a few extra cameras and an “Ask a Librarian” telepresence console, and the same library being strangled by budget restrictions can operate quite easily 24 hours a day.

Libraries may even consider turning this into a premium cardholder service, one that they charge a monthly or annual fee for.

Automated teller machines with telepresence screens 

24-Hour Banks

There no reason banking operations need to be restricted to the open and close times listed on a branch’s front door. Video connection to live tellers 24 hours a day will soon become a standard mode of operation for most banks. 

24-7 prayer center

24-Hour Churches 

Churches tend to be some of the least utilized facilities in a city, operating at capacity only one day a week. Adding a few cameras and keyless entry systems to the doors and parishioners will begin to redefine their operations around 24-hour thinking.

Automated “Ask a Teacher” cam 

24-Hour Schools

Teacherless schools in the future will be much more about creating “learning environments” than “teaching environments.” 

As we move away from rigid start and stop times, and school operating schedules that rarely coincide with parent’s work schedules, we can begin to explore the use of automated learning and testing systems, “Ask a Teacher” telepresence consoles, and much more.

No, I’m not naïve enough to think young kids can be left to their own devices, and it may be too early to consider a full 24-hour operation. But automating even parts of the learning environment will open up options never before contemplated. 

Select your movie from an automated ticketing station in Korea 

24-Hour Movie Theaters 

Future cinemas will have private theaters where movie-goers can select the movie they want and order whatever food or drinks they desire for a very personal experience.

As theaters become more automated, on-site personnel will be eliminated and the cinema can turn into a full 24-hour demand driven operation. 

Self-service bar

24-Hour Bars and Restaurants

Would you go to a self-service bar or restaurant? In the future they will become quite common expanding their offerings while at the same time automating everything from the cooking, to waitressing, to cleanup. 

Over the coming years we will transition from semi-automated to fully automated bars or restaurants, reducing headcount one position at a time. As the employee numbers drop, hours of operation will expand.

Also, as we enter the driverless car era, DUIs and drunk driving concerns will fall by the wayside. 

Sephora cosmetic and makeup vending machine 

24-Hour Shopping Centers 

As with most retail, shopping centers are struggling. Adding store-within-a-store concepts along with afterhours product walls where people can order anything they see will give new options to after-hour shoppers.

Future Vending Machines

Automating retail is just a piece of what’s happening in the world of vending machines. Here are a few of the more unusual vending machines showing up around the world: 

 

Wine vending machine and bar

. 

 

24-hour grocery kiosk

 .

 

Lettuce and fresh produce vending machine in Japan

 .

 

Fresh crab vending machine in China

. 

Wine vending machine recently seen in Wal-Mart

.

Rodam & Fields makeup and cosmetic vending machine

. 

 Britain’s Rollasoles and Afterheels machine dispenses flat shoes for women who’s feet hurt

. 

German publisher Hamerger Automatenverlag vending machine for books and magazines

. 

 

Quiksilver vending machine dispenses underwear, lingerie, bikinis, boxers, and brief

 . 

Grocery store vending machine that dispenses eggs

.

 

Seedbomb Vending Machine 

. 

Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream Machine

 .

The “Semi-Automatic” vending machine at Mondrian South Beach Hotel

Dubbed the “Semi-Automatic,” the vending machine at Mondrian South Beach is stocked with everything from T-shirts, to sunglasses, to best-selling novels, to a $90,000 Bentley. (A voucher is printed and the vehicle is delivered to the hotel in minutes.)

.

“Gold to Go” vending machine in Abu Dhabi

.

 

Closed, a jeans brand in Italy, unveils their vending machine

 . 

Pizza vending machine, 9″ pizzas cook in 2 minutes while you wait

 . 

Salta Cerveza bike vending machine in Argentina

 .

  

Deliver drone 

Final Thoughts

The photos above are intended to open your mind to the possibilities of living in a 24-hour city.

There are many side effects to automation and not all of them are positive. But one aspect of our automated future will be 24-hour access to most goods and services, many of which are only available during normal business hours today.

Eventually, most of the physical products we order will be delivered by drones, either ground-based or flying drones, often in 30 minutes or less.

By eliminating the restrictive nature of today’s business operations, we will be freeing up attention that can be more prudently spent solving society’s bigger problems.

Please take a few moments to weigh in on these topics. I’d love to hear what you think.

 

By 2030 over 50% of Colleges will Collapse

In 1791 when Mozart died, his 29-year-old wife, Constanze Weber, was forced to earn a living, so she began selling her late husband’s manuscripts and turned the former messy paper scraps lying around the house into a tidy income stream.

Lucky for her, she lived after Gutenberg’s printing revolution had begun in Europe allowing her to leverage the power of rapid reproducibility.

Over time, the music industry has figured out many different formats for reproducing music, moving from sheet music, to Edison’s cylinder phonograph, to vinyl records, to 8-track tapes, and eventually to downloadable digital recordings.

During those same 200+ years, colleges have done little to reproduce and distribute college courses, choosing instead to redo each college class, much like ancient monks reproducing the scrolls of history.

When demand for education increased, they simply built more colleges, thousands of them, in fact, all over the world. This is analogous to forcing people to go to concerts and other live venues to listen to music.

Over the coming decades, the amount of education we consume to stay competitive will increase exponentially.

However, the education we “buy” will increasingly be on “our terms” not on theirs. We will want education that is relative, timely, available on-demand, and fits within a specific need. And it will need to be far more affordable.

For these reasons and more, which I’ll explain below, we will begin to see the mass failure of traditional colleges. But out of this will come an entire new education era unlike anything we have ever seen.

Embracing the Digital Era

Over the past decade, the number of people reading printed newspapers, visiting retail stores, and using direct mail have fallen sharply.

At the same time, the amount of news consumed on a daily basis has risen sharply, the overall level of retail sales has continued to increase, and person-to-person communications through email, social media, texting, and other forms of digital communications has exploded around us. 

Each industry has forged its own unique path into the digital age.

In the past few months the level of experimentation surrounding college education has shot up considerably, and many are getting considerable traction. A high level of experimentation is always a leading indicator of change even if we don’t have a clear view of what it will look like on the other side.

Student Loan Backlash

There’s a big difference between affordability and financeability. Until now, colleges have had a relatively easy time selling a student on getting an education today in exchange for some unknown monthly payment to be determined later.

Hundreds if not thousands of studies have been commissioned over the years to support the value of higher education, and students on the fence are quickly overwhelmed with evidence that they’re making the right decision.

In fact, the anti-education crowd is very small, and those questioning the cost of education have only become vocal during the past few years.

The “education industrial complex” is perhaps the most influential in the world, with everyone from Presidents and world leaders, to Nobel Laureates, to CEOs and business executives all unwavering in their support of colleges and their accomplishments.

Yet for the lowly student sitting at home with $100,000 in debt and the only job available to them is one that doesn’t require a college degree, the entire system begins to feel like a house of lies, with festering levels of anger working their way to the top.

Over the coming months this seething cauldron of discontent will begin to erupt in unusual ways.

Eight Reasons Why Over 50% of Colleges will Fail by 2030

So what happens when the legacy power of an institution meets a rapidly changing business environment driven by emerging technology? Some will survive but many will not.

For this reason I’ve decided to focus in on eight core issues for colleges that will drive a wedge between business-as-usual and the unstoppable forces of change.

Overhead costs too high – Even if the buildings are paid for and all money-losing athletic programs are dropped, the costs associated with maintaining a college campus are very high. Everything from utilities, to insurance, to phone systems, to security, to maintenance and repair are all expenses that online courses do not have. Some of the less visible expenses involve the bonds and financing instruments used to cover new construction, campus projects, and revenue inconsistencies. The cost of money itself will be a huge factor.


Substandard classes and teachers – Many of the exact same classes are taught in thousands of classroom simultaneously every semester. The law of averages tells us that 49.9% of these will be below average. Yet any college that is able to electronically pipe in a top 1% teacher will suddenly have a better class than 99% of all other colleges.


Increasingly visible rating systems – Online rating systems will begin to torpedo tens of thousands of classes and teachers over the coming years. Bad ratings of one teacher and one class will directly affect the overall rating of the institution.


Inconvenience of time and place – Yes, classrooms help focus our attention and the world runs on deadlines. But our willingness to flex schedules to meet someone else’s time and place requirements is shrinking. Especially when we have a more convenient option.


Pricing competition – Students today have many options for taking free courses without credits vs. expensive classes with credits and very little in between. That, however, is about to change. Colleges focused primarily on course delivery will be facing an increasingly price sensitive consumer base.


Credentialing system competition – Much like a doctor’s ability to write prescriptions, a college’s ability to grant credits has given them an unusual competitive advantage, something every startup entrepreneur is searching for. However, traditional systems for granting credits only work as long as people still have faith in the system. This “faith in the system” is about to be eroded with competing systems. Companies like Coursera, Udacity, and iTunesU are well positioned to start offering an entirely new credentialing system.


Relationships formed in colleges will be replaced with other relationship-building systems – Social structures are changing and the value of relationships built in college, while often quite valuable, are equally often overrated. Just as a dating relationship today is far more likely to begin online, business and social relationships in the future will also happen in far different ways.


Sudden realization that “the emperor has no clothes!” – Education, much like our money supply, is a system built on trust. We are trusting colleges to instill valuable knowledge in our students, and in doing so, create a more valuable workforce and society. But when those who find no tangible value begin to openly proclaim, “the emperor has no clothes!” colleges will find themselves in a hard-to-defend downward spiral.

Ironically, we are entering into a period where the demand for education will rise substantially. Yet traditional colleges are such a mismatch for what future consumers will want that dropping enrollments will cause many to fail. 

At the same time many new opportunities will begin to surface, and future-learning centers will make use of former college facilities. Some may even resurrect the former institution under an entirely new business model.

Final Thoughts

Imagine coming across a job opening that requires a specific certification you currently don’t have. You match up well will all of the other job requirements but you’re only missing this one certification.

A few clicks later you find out the certification can happen online with 20 hours of training. So you spend your weekend getting certified.

Yes, there’s a big difference between having a cursory understanding of a topic and working level proficiency. But for many of us our future careers will hinge on situations like the scenario I just described.

As a society we’ve grown complacent, thinking smart people in colleges are doing a good job preparing our kids for the future. Yet higher ed has become a lumbering giant, slow to adapt and increasingly out of sync with the needs of business and society.

The same top-down institutional systems that have preserved colleges for centuries are now becoming their greatest enemy.

Much as failed golf courses, big box retailers, and shopping centers end up in the laps of local communities, failed colleges will also become local problems for city governments to deal with.

Pedestrian campuses that worked well during peak enrollment have a way of becoming white elephants for whatever comes next.

Over the coming weeks I’ll be focusing on “what’s next” for colleges and universities. With the right transitioning effort, the downside may not be as dismal as what I’m predicting.

At the same time I’d love to hear your thoughts.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

 

In Search of Humanity’s Prime Directive

A thousand years from now, what is it that the human race will need to have accomplished?

Yes, I realize that this is a huge question and many of you reading this are living paycheck-to-paycheck worrying about who’s going to win the big game this weekend. But if we don’t begin to frame our role of humanity inside a much bigger picture, we are likely to remain in sputter-mode until we eventually do.

I’ll apologize in advance to my Star Trek friends, but the show’s creators missed it completely. Star Fleet’s so-called Prime Directive, their over arching rule of non-interference with other civilizations, is more of a “prime restrictive” than a “prime directive,” and will rank no higher than a sub-point of a sub-point in the future rules of the universe if we ever decide to go down that path.

For decades we’ve been attempting to solve past problems, and it’s easy to become sun-blinded with problems as everywhere we look we see more of them. Cancer, tornados, floods, wars, and famine are all reoccurring themes sucking up all our attention.

However, this backward-facing preoccupation we have with problem solving leaves little attention to be paid to the question, “where do we go from here?” Our whack-a-mole approach of beating problems over the head, only to find them springing up again in a different place, has left us in an endless loop.

For this reason I’d like to propose we create a real Prime Directive for all of humanity.

Undoing the Damage Done by Hollywood and TV News 

The average person on the street is afraid of the future. 

If you ask them about the world ahead, most will instantly jump to topics of disease, war, famine, and natural disasters. At least that’s what they’re willing to talk about.

However, what’s really playing in the back of their heads are the vivid disaster scenes from recent movies that make the twin towers falling on 9/11 seem like a distant blip on their disaster radar. 

Witnessing catastrophes like this in full 3D surround-sound intensity has a way of creating indelible imprints on our personality, imprints that are seething with paranoia. 

Yes, I still like to be entertained like everyone else, but at what point do we cross the line? At what point does our entertainment blatantly distort the truth in a way that can be harmful to those watching? 

As an example, many young people today believe:

…they can jump out of a car going 40-50 mph, roll a few times, and they’ll be fine.
…they can punch each other repeatedly in the face and cause no significant damage.
…someone can get shot once or twice, shrug it off, and keep going.
…the world is clearly divided between good people and bad people, and its easy to tell them apart.
…corporations are evil, government is corrupt, and whatever you do is okay as long as you have the right intentions. 

Since Hollywood is always looking for people to cast as villains to make their plots more interesting, they’ve also determined that casting the future as evil and foreboding also makes the plots more interesting.

While there are many potential dangers lurking ahead, and many things will indeed go wrong, our near-total obsession with only portraying the dark side of the future leaves us with little understanding of what the upside could be.

Being risk averse is not necessarily bad, but being future averse is. 

Framing the Question

Let’s start with one possible scenario: Twenty years from now, the online world has enabled us to live in a far more efficient world, and the amount of money we spend on transportation, energy, education, healthcare, housing, and food drops by 50%. This dropping of expenses frees up tremendous amounts of money that can be spent in other ways. 

If we suddenly find ourselves with significantly more money, in what ways should we invest this money to make the world a better place?

Once again, what is our Prime Directive? What are the big things that still need to be accomplished?

Since we currently don’t have any type of established goals or directions for humanity, most of this money will likely be squandered.

Creating the Prime Directive

So what would a “Prime Directive” actually look like? 

Since this hasn’t been done before, at least not on any official scale, the effort we begin with will look very crude in comparison to what we end up with.

That said, I envision this to be a fluid guideline, updated periodically, to help focus resources and efforts today around building a better future.

As a starting point, a Prime Directive may include such things as:

Create inexhaustible supplies of food, water, and breathable air
Colonize other planets
Reduce all health issues to something as simple as applying a Band-Aide
Extend human life indefinitely
Uncover unlimited sources of renewable energy
Continually increase the intelligence of humankind
Find better ways to protect people from natural disasters
Harness the forces of nature for the betterment of humanity

For those of you reading this, please take a moment to add, subtract, or edit ideas on this list in the comment section below.

Final Thoughts

Rather than living in a world with people fighting people, the true battles that lie ahead will test us on every conceivable level. On the grandest of scales, we will find ourselves confronted with forces larger than our entire solar system, and on the tiniest of scales, nanotechnology and sub-atomic particles will confound us with challenges we never dreamed could exist. These battles will require far more than brilliant minds, personal tenacity, and military might.

People of tomorrow will need to be prepared for a higher calling. This higher calling will be to pre-empt crises before they occur, anticipate disasters before they happen, and solve some of mankind’s greatest problems, starting with the problem of our own ignorance.

Much like a person walking through a dark forest with a flashlight that illuminates but a short distance ahead, each step forward gives us a new perspective by adding light to what was previously dark. The people of tomorrow will simply need a better flashlight. 

Until now, ours has been a dance with the ordinary. History shows us that we are immersed in cycles, systems, and patterns that repeat again and again. Tomorrow’s history books will show us that all patterns are made to be broken, all cycles waiting to be transformed.

Higher education will need to position itself on the bleeding edge of what comes next. We will always need systems for looking backwards to understand where we have come from, but a new breed of visionaries, bestowed with unusual tools for preempting disasters, are destined to become our most esteemed professionals.

Life in the future will not be easy, nor should it be.

Perhaps a simpler way of stating our Prime Directive would be like this: “Preparing humanity for worlds unknown, preparing our minds for thoughts unthinkable, and preparing our resolve for struggles unimaginable.”

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

Proposal to Eliminate Forest Fires Completely

 

Over the past few days I’ve been listening to news reports about the devastating fires burning in Colorado.

Record heat, high winds, low humidity, and large amounts of beetle-killed trees have created “perfect storm” conditions for multiple wildfires to rage across the State.

At the same time that our hearts and prayers go out to all of the victims of these tragic fire, I’m also convinced that none of these fires should have gotten to this point. Here’s why.

During the first few minutes, between the time when a fire first starts and when it reaches a point of being out of control, is a containment window where only a few gallons of water or a few pounds of fire retardant is necessary to put the evil genie back into its bottle.

Using a fleet of surveillance drones, equipped with special infrared cameras, fires can be spotted during the earliest moments of a containment window, signaling a fleet of extinguisher drones to douse the blaze before anything serious happens.

Drones specifically designed for extinguishing forest fires have the potential to eliminate virtually 100% of the devastating fires that blanket newspaper headlines every summer.

Naturally there’s a downside to eliminating forest fires altogether, so how should we proceed?

 

How do we measure the true costs of a forest fire?

The True Cost of Forest Fires

In 2012 the U.S. Forest Service had a budget of $948 million for fire suppression, a decrease of nearly $500 million from 2011.

In the U.S., wildfires burned an average of 6.9 million acres per year from 2002-2011, almost double the average acreage of the previous decade. Some of this can be attributed to factors such as beetle-kill trees, an increasingly mobile society, urbanization of mountain communities, etc. 

A 2010 report titled “The True Cost of Wildfire in the Western U.S.” published by the Western Forestry Leadership Coalition challenged traditional methods for calculating the cost of forest fires.

They concluded, “Fire suppression costs, while often considered synonymous with the full costs of a wildfire, are only a fraction of the true costs associated with a wildfire event. Synthesis of case studies in the report reveals a range of total wildfire costs anywhere from 2 to 30 times greater than the reported suppression costs.”

One example they used was the June 2002 Hayman Fire which erupted in the highly populated Front Range corridor south of Denver, Colorado. Burning 137,759 acres, it was, at the time, the largest fire in state history. Four counties were directly impacted by the fire: Jefferson, Park, Douglas, and Teller. 

Immediate impacts of the fire included the destruction of 132 residences, one commercial building and 466 outbuildings, with an estimated fire suppression cost of over $42 million.

After a thorough investigation of the fire by the U.S. Forestry Service, the true costs were re-calculated as follows:

$42,279,000 – Total suppression expenses, including USFS, state, and county expenses, some of which were ultimately reimbursed by FEMA.
$135,548,834 – Total direct costs included property losses, utility losses, and USFS facility and resource losses. (Includes suppression expenses)
$39,930,000 – Rehabilitation expenses included costs incurred by USFS emergency rehabilitation programs, Denver water, US Geological Survey (USGS) mapping, and USFS restoration.
$2,691,601 – Impact costs, incurred after the fire was extinguished, included tax revenue losses and business losses, plus reduced value of the surviving structures within the fire area.
$29,529,614 – Special costs recorded were asthma victims, special health cases, and losses to wilderness values.

All told, the costs for the Hayman Fire topped $207 million. Widely reported suppression costs only accounted for 20% of the total.

Using rough calculations, last years $1 billion fire suppression budget, at roughly 20% of the total would indicate a true cost in excess of $5 billion/year.

State of the Art Infrared Technology

In the late 1980s, I was an engineer working as part of an IBM team to build a mobile satellite command and control center for monitoring missile launches from space. This contract was part of Reagan’s “Star Wars” missile defense system. 

Whenever a missile was launched, the heat plume coming out of the back of the rocket produces a distinct heat signature instantly detectable by satellites tens of thousands of miles away with infrared sensors. 

The technology we were using over 25 years ago could instantly detect missile launches, anywhere on earth, within seconds of the launch. 

I can only assume today’s technology is hundreds of times more precise than anything we were working with back then. 

2007 NASA image of forest fires in California 

The above photo was taken with thermal-infrared imaging sensors on NASA’s Ikhana unmanned research aircraft in 2007 over the Harris Fire in San Diego County in Southern California. 

That same technology could be adjusted to detect forest fires at a very early stage.

 

Thermal image of Boston Bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev hiding in a boat 

Massachusetts State Police released video taken of Boston bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev’s hiding spot after he was discovered in a boat parked in a Watertown, MA resident’s backyard.

This image was taken with a thermal camera mounted to a helicopter.

Bluesky is a UK company specializing in aerial imaging. They recently purchased a state of the art airborne mapping system that included a LiDAR (Light Imaging Detection and Ranging) system with integrated thermal sensors and high-resolution cameras.

Onboard thermal sensors record infrared measurements capable of showing heat loss in buildings and monitoring pipelines. However, this same technology can be modified to work on flying drones to monitor fire activity on forestlands. 

Oil exploration drone used in Norway

Aerial drone technology is advancing exponentially and much of what’s in use today will be museum pieces in five years.

Whether thermal scanners are mounted on satellites, high altitude aircraft, low attitude drones, or some combination of these, monitoring hotspots and instantly determining the danger level is well within our grasp.

The “can-we-should-we” debate

Certainly not all fires are bad. For year we have debated whether to let nature take its course or have us intervene.

In 2012 the U.S. Forest Service, which manages over 35 million acres of forests, made a major policy shift, deciding to intervene on all fires, something environmentalists contend will cause significant long-term damage. 

As an example, the Northern Rockies have a long history of wilderness fire, and records indicate most wildfires, when allowed to burn naturally, stay within wilderness boundaries and cost little to manage. Because the wilderness areas are remote and mostly surrounded by other public lands, escaped fires don’t threaten many structures. 

The two other major federal agencies charged with managing public lands – the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service – so far have not followed the Forest Service’s lead.

So if we have the capability of spotting fires very early and putting them out, is that preferable to letting them burn? Do we need to craft new policies regarding when and where fires should burn vs. having us intervene?

As we add entire new toolsets to our fire suppression arsenal, these decisions become far more difficult. Who gets to decide, and how liable are they for making a bad decision? 

Illustration of a fire extinguisher drone

Final Thoughts

I began this line of thinking looking for a solution to the wildfires we’re currently experiencing here in my home state of Colorado. 

Admittedly, managing a 24/7-drone fleet over our massively huge forestlands will be no small undertaking. Surveillance drones will likely be separate from fire-suppression drones.

Extinguishing a fire under several layers of tree canopy will also be a challenge. Every kind of tree will likely require a different navigation strategy, and some densely covered grounds may be entirely unreachable until it’s too late. 

Operating drones day and night through inclement conditions like wind, hail, and rain will require an enormous effort. But so does a full-frontal attack on a fire by smokejumpers, bucket-bearing helicopters, and slow lumbering slurry bombers that each dumped more than 2,000 gallons of red chemical fire retardant on a formerly pristine mountainside. 

New technology rarely fixes everything and it’s easy to see some of the downside here. But doing nothing is also not an option.

Starting with only a portion of the combined budgets of the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, and the National Park Service could create a significant enough pilot project to prove its viability.

Knowing that we have this new capability is an obvious first step. So where do we go from here? I’d love to hear your thoughts.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

 

Who Controls the Education Industry?

Let’s first start off with a different question. “Who controls the bread supply in London?”

This was the opening question that Jonas Eliasson started with in his TED talk titled “How to solve traffic jams.”

As it turns out, there really is no single person responsible for making sure bread gets distributed every day in London. He used this as an example of a “self-organizing complex system.” So rather than relying on some bread czar to issue top-down edicts to make things happen, the system organizes itself.

A few months back I was interviewed for a Canadian documentary titled “Generation Jobless” produced by Dreamfilm Productions. The core focus of this documentary was to point out the amazing number of disconnects between higher education and the job market, and why such a high percentage of young people today can’t find work. 

As an example, each year Canadian colleges graduate 3 times as many teachers as there are teacher openings. Many other industries have similar discrepancies with either too many or too few graduates to match industry openings.

To further complicate matters, employers are now placing a higher premium on experienced workers, and are less willing to invest time and money for training new entrants themselves. With colleges only offering the training piece, graduates are left in a catch-22 situation with little opportunity to get the work experience without the opportunity to actually work.

This started me down the path of considering why London’s bread supply works spectacularly well as a self-organizing complex system, yet education does not. And it all began with the central question, “Who controls the education industry?”

Betting on Your Future Self

For most entrepreneurs it’s very easy to determine who the customer is. It’s the person who decides to pay for the goods or services you have to offer.

But in higher education the buyer/seller relationship gets very muddy. Students taking the course will usually pay for it eventually, but often get loans, scholarships, and other forms of assistance along the way. In many respects, the future employer is the chief consumer of college output.

Whenever the purchase obligation is somehow “lubricated” either through grants, third-party payments, loans, or something else, the onus of responsibility gets shifted to some future version of yourself.

Most students believe their future self will always be richer, more connected, and more able to deal with financial obligations than their current self. In many cases, this is a correct, but not always. As a result, it is very difficult to accurately decide what kind of pain threshold you should impose on your future self. 

When given the choice, immediate gratification almost always wins over future responsibilities. It’s very easy for a college representative to talk about the successes and lifestyles of their most prominent graduates, with the natural inference being that the only thing separating them from their much wealthier future self is signing on the dotted line.

Without accurate information about job trends, skill requirements, and industry demands, students are left with very little information to make a critically important decision.

In this context, students become the ultimate risk takers, betting on themselves to develop viable, marketable skills that the world needs. 

The Five-Year Pipeline 

It was five years ago when today’s college graduates decided on which college to attend and what their major should be.

This is the stark reality of the 5-year educational pipeline created by today’s existing college and university system. Today’s colleges take far too long and are far too expensive.

The Primary Disconnect

Colleges are in the business of selling classes. Students are in the business of gaining marketable skills. These are two radically different objectives.

If colleges only got paid after students completed their first full year of work after graduating, even if only part of the tuition was withheld until then, they would quickly shift their focus from teaching what they thought mattered, to what future employers thought mattered.

Every HR administrator in the country would instantly become best friends with the college president.

Today, with college loans skyrocketing out of control, and the responsibility for repayment of the student loan falling solely upon the student’s shoulders, without even an option for filing bankruptcy, we are forcing 18-20 year olds to make lifetime decisions without any good basis for making that call.

Who Controls Education? 

Last year, James Glattfelder presented a very probing look into areas of power and control with his critically important TED talk, “Who controls the world?”

After conducting an impressive amount of research, he determined there were over 43,000 significant transnational corporations who essentially control the world. But probing deeper, he found that 737 of the top shareholders (primarily those in the banking and finance world) controlled 80% of the value in these corporations.

Drilling down even further, a tiny subset, consisting of only 146 individuals, controlled 40% of the wealth of these companies.

If we were to apply Glattfelder’s research to the world of education, we would undoubtedly find similar patterns of wealth, control, and power. Even though most of the highly regarded educational istitutions are non-profit and not “ownable,” the puppet strings of control are invariably being pulled by a similar set of individuals.

However, when it comes to policy decisions that help guide the overall direction of the higher education industry, much of that power and influence has traditionally come from key individuals at elite institutions like Harvard, MIT, Cambridge, Oxford, Yale, Princeton, Columbia, etc. 

Over the past couple years we have witnessed a significant power shift. Online education powerhouses like iTunesU, edX, Coursera, and Udacity have risen above the noise and are jockeying for industry clout. Coursera is currently showing signs of becoming the 8,000 gorilla in this space.

Once 2-3 diffinitive industry leaders emerge, they will also have the ability to change the rules of the game.

As an example, 5 years from now Coursera could very possibly have 50 million registred students from around the world. With that type of following, they could implement an entirely new system for replacing college credits and devise a far more effective way of credentialling academic achievement, with traditional Bachelor, Master, and PhD being replaced with 10-20 achievement levels that recognize learning over an entire lifetime. 

Turning Education into a Self-Organizing Complex System

First, to function as a true self-organizing complex system, education needs to be parsed into far smaller learning elements. Semester-long courses are too long to allow quick change from a teaching standpoint, and overly burdensome from a student (consumer) perspective.

Is it possible to convert today’s college education from semester courses into a series of one-hour modules, maybe even shorter? 

Replacing a one-hour module is far easier than replacing a 12-week long course. So from the standpoint of creating a highly adaptive, highly responsive learning system, course length is a critical element. 

Second, when it comes to giving students accurate information to make informed decisions about their education, we will need to provide real-time statistics on employers, jobs, salaries, student loan details, etc.

Making these two changes alone will move higher ed significantly down the path to becoming a self-organizing complex system.

Final Thoughts 

Business professionals in the future will require twice as much training as their counterparts today, just to stay competitive.

As we move further towards a globally competitive workforce, competition will stiffen, and our need to shift gears will happen at a moment’s notice. We will no longer have the time and place luxuries of waiting for the right opportunity for education to happen.

If your entire universe of course options is the 1,500-2,000 courses offered by a local universities, you will find yourself at a severe disadvantage when competing against someone who takes courses on Coursera, EdX, iTunesU, Udacity, or Learnable.com.

The transition ahead for colleges and universities will be very messy, as competing forces on both sides of the change movement begin to form. As with virtually every other industry of the past, colleges will be forced to become more efficient, doing more with less.

Over time, this transition will offer tremendous benefits to society. In much the same way that ancient libraries had their books chained to the podiums, colleges have tried to chain learning to their campuses. Unleashing these chains of learning will serve as a cathartic release for the entire world.

That’s just a few of my thoughts but I’d love to hear what you’re thinking.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

 

 

Portrait of a New Radical: Hyper-Transparency and the Coming Radicalization of America

Over the past few days I’ve been wrestling with a very troubling thought.

It started with the simple question, “Ten years from now, anyone who is frustrated with those in power, whether it’s a local, national, or international issue, what options will they have for protesting what they see as an injustice, inequities, or outright corruption?” 

Voicing complaints on social media like Facebook or Twitter, organizing a sign-waving rally on the Capitol steps, or taking out a full-page ad in a newspaper will probably still be options, but they’re also a quick way to be branded a troublemaker. 

Every shift in technology brings with it positives as well as the negatives. In a hyper-transparent, open society, being the whistleblower for injustice can quickly become more about the accuser than the wrong that needs righting.

Like it or not, transparency changes the equation.

Is humanity prepared to live in the hyper-transparent world we’re creating? Caution, the conclusions I’ve reached may be more than a little disturbing.

Rich History of Rule Breakers

Rule breaking has many dimensions and there’s a wide chasm between someone who takes a calculated business risk in pursuit of something positive and a demented psychopath breaking rules in a purely evil fashion.

Pete Diamandis, as an example, who bluffed his way to his first X-Prize payout cannot be compared to Bernie Madoff whose only plan was to bilk people out of billions of dollars. 

Similarly, Bugsy Siegel’s sleight-of-hand financing techniques used to build The Flamingo, the first major resort in Las Vegas, also cannot be compared to Bonnie and Clyde whose only goal was to rob banks. 

Yet, as we begin extending the long arm of scrutiny, and attempt to shine the transparency spotlight on all forms of rule breaking, we often run the risk of lumping them altogether and throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater?

Could it be that our overarching drive to use our soon-to-be all-seeing, all-knowing technology for the powers of good, to rid society of corruption, fraud, and depravity may actually make things worse? 

It is not only possible, but also very likely.

Protester in Turkey wearing a Guy Fawkes mask

Caught in the Transparency Spotlight

For years, the world cheered when someone like Mike Wallace, of 60-Minute’s fame, managed to confront a person on camera and catch him or her red-handed in a boldfaced lie. But capturing a “Mike Wallace moment” back then on video or photos was a rare occurrence. 

Today, just the opposite is true. It’s rare not have a confrontation captured on photos or videos.

Within a decade, if you participate in a demonstration or protest, the probability of being personally identified will soon reach 100%. 

Recent protests in Turkey have many wearing gasmasks or the ever-anonymous Guy Fawkes masks to conceal their identity. At this point in history, those are probably sufficient.

However, in a few short years, people will become infinitely more traceable and simply using face paint, masks, or other theatrical disguises will offer little to shield them from the scrutiny of those who take time to investigate. 

Young people involved in the Turkish protests find it easy to get caught up in the moment, and are often involved in the destruction and burning of property in the streets.

To be sure, the dividing point between a protest participant and those officially labeled a “terrorist” is a very fine line. 

As we move further down the path of automating justice, the use of drones for surveillance, identification, and capture will be greatly expanded. And once a person is labeled a terrorist, it will be a designation that haunts them the rest of their life, regardless of where they live, anywhere on the planet.

Are we prepared to throw away the lives of our young people, for these brief moments of indiscretion? 

“The Screwed Generation”

Consider the Following

We currently have a generation of highly educated young people, trying to make a name for themselves. Many are deeply in debt from student loans, either unemployed or under employed, and often sidelined because they lack experience.

Both Newsweek and NPR are referring to millennials in the U.S as the “screwed generation” because student loans, which now exceed $1 trillion and are not dischargeable through bankruptcy, a debt that will haunt many of them for the rest of their lives.
The promise of “better living through high-priced education” has turned out, for many, to be a total lie. Over 43% of recent graduates are now working at jobs that don’t require a college education, according to a study by the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development.
Since 2008 the percentage of the workforce under 25 has dropped 13.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while that of people over 55 has risen by 7.6%.
Median net worth of people under 35, according to the U.S. Census, fell 37% between 2005 and 2010
The wealth gap today between younger and older Americans now stands as the widest on record. The median net worth of households headed by someone 65 or older is $170,494, 42% higher than in 1984, while the median net worth for younger-age households is $3,662, down 68% from a quarter century ago, according to an analysis by the Pew Research Center.
The unemployment rate for people between 18 and 29 is 12% in the U.S., nearly 50% above the national average.
72% of those under 35 feel government programs appear to perpetuate dependency rather than provide a solution.
Our excessive number of laws, rules, and regulations are viewed as background noise. In the minds of millennials, too many rules equal no rules, so why bother.

These factors, combined with a host of other perceived injustices, have combined to create a festering cauldron of hostility waiting for the right opportunity to be unleashed. But with the ominous eyes of big brother lurking on every street corner, a new breed of revolutionary is now in its infancy. 

Portrait of a New Radical

Rule breakers need the latitude to make mistakes, but transparency increases the pain threshold for making those mistakes.

As we remove people’s ability to perform open and visible forms of protest, the portrait of a new radical begins to emerge. 

Future radicals will share many common characteristics:

Feeling trapped, trapped, trapped!
Ultra-paranoid, wary of social networks and visible ties to others.
Pervasive desire to become invisible, wanting to disappear at a moments notice.
Subversive, digitally destructive, able to spot vulnerabilities almost instantly.
Multiple identities make life easier, both online and in the physical world.
Very little need for money. Able to find a “free” option for almost anything they need.
When money is used, it’s transferred through alternative currencies, games, cash, and foreign exchanges.
They will fight for causes that don’t make sense, just to throw people off.
At their core, they are simultaneously anti-government, anti-police, anti-corporation, and anti-military.

The emerging new radical will be both highly destructive and highly creative, with an ability to orchestrate, manipulate, and influence battles that they can sit on the sideline and be entertained by.

Final Thoughts

In much the same way a magician has no act once the trick is known, or the poker player has no bluff once the cards are revealed, a hyper-transparent society becomes a devastatingly efficient playground for the true puppet masters. 

People on the higher end of the food chain will have access to the master control rooms where countless “levers of oppression” can be pulled if anyone crosses them.

Our ability to abuse transparency cannot be overstated.

Those who are willing to “go to war” against this kind of person will have to play by an entirely different set of rules.

In a desynchronized society, where the brute force workers on the bottom are woefully unaware of the ultra-manipulative tools being used by those at the top, we appear to be on a collision course with destiny that seems unavoidable.

My apologies to those who perceive this as little more than an uncharacteristic personal rant. Perhaps in many ways it is.

But as a topic that has been torturing me for several days now, I’d love to have someone tell me where I’m wrong. So please take a moment to weigh in with your thoughts.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

 

The End of Theft

What does it mean to “own” something?

I’m sure there are legal definitions, but most of us believe that once we purchase an item, we own it. Our relationship with that object shifts from ogler to owner in the blink of a cash register transaction. 

Ownership also happens when we make things, find them, discover them, or give birth to them as with children, pets, and livestock. But how long does this ownership relationship last? 

In the country of India, a car is stolen every 6 minutes, but in the State of Texas, a car is stolen every 5.5 minutes. Ownership can be either relinquished, or severed, in the proverbial blink of an eye.

As every businessperson knows, theft is a major problem with most viewing some percentage loss as unavoidable. However, that attitude is about to change.

With improved security systems, vehicle theft has been dropping since 1998, and will be all but eliminated by 2030 with the Internet of Things.

By 2020 over 50 billion devices will be connected to the Internet. By 2030, virtually every item of value will become traceable with tiny electronic sensors, known as smart dust, manufactured into them.

Along with this level of traceability will come a number of other opportunities that I would like to explore, such as the complete elimination of theft. But not everything with this technology will be welcomed with open arms.

The “Can We, Should We” Debate

Next generation manufacturing will have the ability to automatically embed smart dust particles with sensors and transmitters into everything we own. Whenever a purchase occurs, items over a certain dollar value will be assigned to a personal ownership network that we control.

Sensors in our clothing, cars, jewelry, shoes, and homes will be primarily used to detect everything from air quality to health irregularities, but they will also alert an “owner” when a theft has occurred.

Whenever there is a “disturbance in the force,” officials will be notified.

This all sound good on the surface, but let’s dig a little deeper.

Our so-called intelligent systems have a way of bringing onerous rigidity into our lives. From a convenience standpoint, yes we can make systems that are very easy to use. Yet from a personal responsibility standpoint, it holds us to an accountability standard that may be impossible for most to achieve.

In analyzing a system like this, it’s always important to search for the unintended consequences. This doesn’t mean we need to decide the fate of this yet-to-be-invented technology on a few ill-conceived edge cases, but from a fully informed citizen of the future position, it helps to start interlocking the big picture puzzle pieces early.

Future Ownership Scenario

A phrase often associated with Benjamin Franklin is “A place for everything and everything in its place.” This scenario takes that model to the logical extreme.

In 2030, every purchase over $50, or what ever minimum you choose, is automatically assigned to our “personal ownership network.” Tagging chips built-in to these items automatically provide a full description of the product, serial numbers, date of purchase, manufacturing details, and more. All of this information is transferred into your personal ownership network, an intelligent software system designed to manage everything you own.

Ownership in the past has been a loosely defined relationship between us and our possessions. More expensive items such as land, buildings, and businesses typically come with legal titles to help validate ownership, but many items, such as jewelry, came with scant proof of title. And after the original purchase, an item’s possession trail has been murky, at best, with donations, gifting, and resales offering little evidence to validate what took place.

Over time, most of what we own will either increase or decrease in value based on market conditions, but we have very little understanding of these deviations.

Think in terms of a typical middle class family that owns a house, cars, boats, tools, appliances, computers, collectables, rare coins, jewelry, pets, stocks, bonds, software, insurance policies, and more.

Personal ownership networks will be designed to keep up-to-the-second information on current valuations, historical data, photo and video records, and the real-time location of each item. Items that drop below the assigned minimum will fall off the radar and no longer be tracked.

In addition to tracking an item’s real-time location, the ownership network will also track any changes to the condition of the object. As an example, if someone decides to key your car, it will know instantly, turn on surveillance cameras and identity sensors, and alert authorities.

When items are transferred, sold, donated, loaned out, pawned, or given away, responsibility for those items is then shifted from one ownership network to another.

Future transactions will no longer be this easy

Unintended Consequences

Many items we purchase have little value after they’ve been used or consumed. Here are a few examples:

An expensive prescription loses value as it’s consumed.
Vacation packages, hotel stays, and airline tickets lose their value after they’ve been used.
Education and training has value until the time a course is taken. Purchasing a seat in a class may or may not be transferrable.
Concert or event tickets have value until the time of the event, and they also may or may not be transferrable.
Intellectual property such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights have varying degrees of value based on market demand and the type of rights being claimed.
Gift cards have many restrictions and often come with an expiration date.

Yes, most of these items may be more effectively managed through an ownership network, but by describing some of their characteristics you can also see some of the messiness that will likely come into play.

Other unintended consequences may involve people attempting to lay claim to such things as horses or buffalo on the open range, unassigned archives in a museum, un-copyrighted material, or any unsold inventory.

It’s also not clear whether we would track currency. If nothing else is stealable, the only option may be to steal cash.

In most cases though, theft suddenly transitions from an overt act of stealing, such as armed robbery, to hackers breaking into ownership networks and changing the underlying records and path of possession.

Perhaps the biggest unintended consequences will stem from the incremental loss of privacy and the ever-increasing levels of transparency needed to function in a future society.

Transitioning from hardened criminals to young hackers

Final Thoughts

As the probability of getting caught approaches 100%, the likelihood of someone committing a crime drops precipitously.

At the same time, it would be nice to think that we could eliminate theft altogether, but ownership networks will naturally come with their own flaws. Most will require far more attention than we currently pay to our assets. This, of course, can be both good and bad.

Identity theft will be more difficult and easier to spot as our identities become linked with ownership networks. Purchases assigned to other ownership networks will be instantly flagged.

Most concerning, though, will be our loss of anything resembling privacy in the future. Virtually everyone who has made it into the history books has been a rule-breaker. Yet for all the accolades we heap upon past rebels who zigged left when everyone else zagged right, future versions of today’s luminaries, responsible for much of the world we live in, will face instant scrutiny in a micro-monitored future.

Whenever I attempt to break new ground with a topic like this, I’m generally not seeing the whole picture. So please take a moment to weigh in and let us know your thoughts.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything

.

.

 

Hi, I’m a robot, and I’m here to take your job

In September 1989, GE Chairman Jack Welch flew to Bangalore, India for a breakfast meeting with an Indian delegation that included Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi. The purpose of his trip was to sell airplane engines and medical equipment to India, but the meeting took an interesting twist along the way. 

Rather than buying what GE has to sell, the Prime Minister Gandhi proposed that GE buy software from India. After looking at the amazingly low labor costs, Welch decided instead to outsource portions of its business starting with Bangalore’s first call center. This short meeting led to an outsourcing revolution that would dramatically transform both the Indian and U.S. economies. 

We are now on the verge of another business transformation, but this time workers are not being replaced by low cost labor in other countries. Rather, they are being replaced by machines. 

Science fiction writers have led us to believe that humanoid robots, with all the nuanced skills and talents of humans would be walking among us today. But rather than some Stepford Wife-like creation appearing at our door and telling us they were taking our jobs, the true job-stealing culprits have been far more subtle, appearing under the guise of automation, without any clear relationship between the machines and the people they’re replacing.

Hidden inside this menacing movement to display labor is a far more complicated shifting of social order. What appears on the outside to be little more than executives with blinders chasing higher profits may instead be mankind’s biggest opportunity. 

Over the past few weeks I’ve been sketching out ideas on how to think about redirecting the energies of mankind. Here are some thoughts on how this may unfold.

The Displacement Myth

One common fallacy is that people are being replaced by machines. The reality is that machines don’t work without humans. A more accurate description is that a large number of people are being replaced by a smaller number of people using machines.

Automated machines, robots, and other devices are designed to make people more efficient, but there is never a 100% replacement ratio.

Driverless car, as example, will replace the need for drivers but will still require maintenance and repair people, operations managers, logistics people for dealing with failing vehicles, customer service people, etc. 

Pilotless planes will still need ground crews, station chiefs, maintenance crews, and more.

Teacherless schools will still need course designers, on-site coaches, software teams in the background, and much more.

Even workerless businesses will still require owners and support staff to direct the efforts of the business.

Yes, it may conceivable that the human replacement ratio could, on occasion, be dramatic, pushed as high as 1,000 to 1. But most of the time it will be far less. At the same time, a super efficient society will have the ability to accomplish far more than ever in the past.

Moving into an Era of Super Efficient Humans

Today’s workers are being replaced by far more efficient workers who are capable of leveraging machines and other forms of automation.

Rather than having someone show up with a magical machine under their arm that can do everything you currently do, the machines I’m referring to are a combination of computers, software, communication networks, automated devices, mobile apps, and the Internet. Perhaps there’s even a robot or two thrown into the mix.

Low skilled workers of the past are being replaced by those capable of operating a myriad of software and devices, born with the tech instincts to master whatever new machinery, system, or technology gets thrown into the mix. 

The bottom line is that the work being done today will require far fewer workers in the future. 

So what is it that will fill the labor void? What are the businesses, projects, and opportunities that will open up once the next round of job shedding begins? 

The Work of the Future 

“To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time.” – Leonard Bernstein

Rest assured, there will always be more problems than mankind has solutions for. Since virtually every solution generates additional problems, the area of problem-solving alone has a seemingly infinite number of opportunities that lie ahead.

In addition to fixing our current ailments, many will opt instead to pursue a higher calling, and these will include a myriad of possibilities.

Cures – In the medical world we need to step past treating the ailments and focus on long-term cures. These include cures for cancer, aides, MS, epilepsy, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, dementia, and many more. Some will even focus on ending human aging altogether, an area with strong near-term potential.
Natural Disasters – We have an obligation to somehow mitigate the impact of natural disasters. This will include efforts to stop forest fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, avalanches, tornadoes, hail, and flooding to name just a few.
Correcting Deviant Behavior – Many among us go through traumatizing events that cause personalities to skew far from society’s norm. Others have brain defects that cause outrageous behavior. To some, these are the problems most deserving of their time and attention.
Colonizing Other Planets – Many believe that the human race cannot survive if all humans only live on one planet. Traveling to distant worlds has been the lifelong dream of many and living in a super efficient society will bring that dream ever closer to reality.
Ending Extreme Poverty – Too much of humanity is still slipping between the cracks. A fully engaged world puts everyone to work, not just the gifted few.
Discovery & Exploration – Even with all our scientific advancements we still don’t know what’s inside the earth or what gravity is. At the same time we are discovering new species of fish, animals, insects, and birds on a regular basis. When it comes to discovery and exploration, we’ve only scratched the surface.
Trailblazing Firsts – Few of us remember the 2nd person to set foot on the moon, or the 2nd person to invent the airplane, or the 2nd one to run a mile in under 4 minutes. We place a disproportionate amount of attention on those who go first, and there are a lot of “firsts” that still need to be accomplished.
Extending Human Abilities and Capabilities – Human awareness ends at the outer reaches of our capabilities. We have little understanding of distant universes, sub-atomic particles, and other dimensions. Extending human abilities and capabilities will open doors in places we didn’t know doors existed. 

Final Thoughts 

No, the robot knocking at your front door is not the boogeyman that so many are dreading. It’s easy to look around and see what exists today, but the true visionaries are looking at what’s missing. And “what’s missing” is where the real opportunities lie.

With today’s automations, jobs are disappearing faster than ever before in history. The only way to compensate for this is to build new businesses and new industries from scratch.

Several studies have shown that every job lost will be replaced many times over with emerging new industries. What’s less clear are the systems needed to fully leverage the opportunities as quickly as they occur.

A fully automated society is a powerful one, and the country with the most responsive systems to adjust to these new realities, and leverage change quickly will rise in prominence on the world stage.

Sometimes that which we fear most has a way of becoming our biggest asset.

 

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” – the book that changes everything

.

.

Colorado’s Opportunity to Take the Lead in the Alternative Transportation Marketplace

The first time I rode on a Segway, I was confused. Even though I loved the experience, I couldn’t quite figure out how it would fit into my life. It wasn’t going to replace my car and it certainly wasn’t a substitute for my bicycle, so what exactly was it? 

When it came down to pulling out my checkbook, I was left in a quandary, “How could I possibly justify spending money on it?”

I soon found out that I was not alone. Talking to local city officials I was told that virtually no one had a policy for alternative vehicles, such as electric scooters, hybrid skateboards, fuel-cell motorcycles, Segways, and Segway knockoffs. They opted to let the police department decide. When I asked the police department about it, their comment was that if it wasn’t a car or a bicycle, “we just ban everything else.”

From a public safety standpoint, “banning everything else” was an easy way of managing what has become an increasingly complex marketplace for alternative transportation. At the same time, the easiest approach is rarely the best one. 

Today, literally thousands of alternative transportation vehicles are coming out of the woodwork and they nearly all have the same problem – no place to drive them. Most are banned from biking and hiking trails, and they are neither licensed, nor licensable, for use on the streets. 

For these reasons, I’d like to discuss some new possible solutions and why Colorado is poised to take the lead in the alternative transportation marketplace.

Broomfield, Colorado biking trail 

Colorado’s Lead on Alternative Transportation Infrastructure 

According to Singletracks, Colorado now has over 5,138 miles of biking trails, far more than any other state in the U.S. This is due, primarily, to money from Great Outdoors Colorado, or GOCO, which receives a portion of state lottery revenues.

GOCO has already invested over $34 million in trails throughout the state with more to come. In addition, some local communities have added additional tax dollars to up the ante. 

Depending on the terrain, trail surface and width, the cost of new trails ranges from $16,000 to $75,000 per mile.

With these trails as existing infrastructure, the stage has been set for a new range of opportunities that could open the doors for tomorrow’s alternative transportation industry. 

MyGoPet

Bicycling as Transportation vs. Fitness and Entertainment

The traditional bicycle is viewed quite differently around the world. While some use it strictly as a fitness device, others use it as their primary means of transportation.

As an example, during an average week 30% of Germany’s population uses a bicycle for primary transportation. The average German uses a bicycle three days a week for about 30% of their trips.

More than 85% of Amsterdam residents ride their bikes at least once a week.

According to a regular survey of Copenhagen residents, 84% have bicycles and 68% ride at least once a week. 96% of school children have a bicycle, and 55% use it to ride to school.

As the same time, the number of Americans who ride bicycles for sport and entertainment is greater than all those who ski, golf, and play tennis combined.

Why do people commute by bicycle? According to a survey of 2,400 cyclists:

95% ride for health and fitness
82% do it for the environment
52% bike to avoid congestion
46% ride to save money on gasoline
34% want to avoid car-parking costs and availability

Honda’s e-CANOPY

The Growing Need for Solutions for the Mobility Impaired

Currently, 6.4 million people in the U.S. use a cane, crutches or a walker, and another 2.2 million use a wheelchair

Adding to the list of mobility impaired are people suffering from arthritis (30 million), polio (8 million), traumatic brain injury (5.3 million), stroke (4.7 million), and a wide variety of other suffering from the likes of epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, muscular dystrophy, and many more. 

Altogether, people with some level of mobility impairment account for 19.7% of the U.S. population. Most of these people have great difficulty with their daily transportation needs, such as driving a car or even riding in one, and a far higher percentage have difficulty riding any form of bicycle.

The need for alternative transportation solutions is greater now than ever in the past, and with our rapidly aging population, the demands for new options is growing on a daily basis.

Honda’s Townwalker

The Need for New Vehicle Classifications

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is the U.S. government’s policy arm on surface transportation data. As a way of organizing the vehicular landscape, the FHWA has created a number of vehicle classifications:

Motorcycles (Class 1) — All two or three-wheeled motorized vehicles with saddle seats and are steered by handlebars rather than steering wheels. This includes motorcycles, motor scooters, mopeds, motor-powered bicycles, and three-wheel motorcycles.
Passenger Cars (Class 2) — All sedans, coupes, and station wagons manufactured primarily for the purpose of carrying passengers and including those passenger cars pulling recreational or other light trailers.
Other Two-Axle, Four-Tire Single Unit Vehicles (Class 3) — All other two-axle, four-tire, vehicles including pickups, vans, campers, motor homes, ambulances, and minibuses.
Buses (Class 4) — All passenger-carrying buses including school buses.

In addition to these four classifications are nine more for trucks and the trucking industry.

However, there are no classifications for alternative transportation vehicles such as Segways, hybrid bicycles, pedicabs, electric skateboards, powered unicycles, etc.

Volkswagen’s Bik.e

Defining a Classification of Vehicle to Co-exist with Bikes and People

Can bikers and joggers coexist with alternative transportation vehicles?

With countless decades of bicycling culture already in place, these alternative transportations vehicle may seem disruptive to the existing ecosystem. However, defining a new classification of vehicle with minimal intrusiveness, the stage can be quickly set for far less disruptive modes of transportation than today’s cars, vans, buses, and trucks.

Suggested starting point for a minimally intrusive new class of powered vehicle:

Speeds under 12 mph
Less than 3’ 8” wide (most trails are 8’ wide)
Under 500 lbs. total weight
Silent operation (no noisy gas powered vehicles)
Added safety features to reduce most likely accidents 

Please note that this criteria is just intended as a starting point. Many adjustments and details may be added over time.

Shown at the end of this article are a number of possible vehicles that either currently fit or could be revised to fit in this class of vehicle.

The Suzuki Pixy

Colorado’s Opportunity

The State of Colorado has an unprecedented opportunity waiting to be unleashed. With an existing infrastructure of over 5,000 miles of biking trails and an existing revenue stream to add more miles in the future, much of what’s needed is already in place.

By defining one or more new classes of vehicles that could co-exist well with existing biking and hiking activities, the State could take the lead in reducing today’s focus on heavy vehicles (cars, vans, buses, and trucks) on the highway. At the same time, these vehicles could open the doors for the countless million of mobility impaired individual left stranded by today’s limited options.

Keep in mind that some trails in places like Boulder and Ft Collins are already quite crowded, so adding congestion to them is not reasonable. But most existing biking trails have very light traffic, so additional vehicles would have little impact. 

Individual cities could declare themselves as official “Alternative Transportation Friendly Communities” and leverage this in their economic development material to attract key players from the mushrooming pool of vehicle manufacturers looking for a receptive audience.

The Honda UNI-CUB and U3-X

Final Thoughts

As an avid biker, I spend countless hours every year enjoying the seemingly endless trails that Colorado has to offer. I love the outdoors and use bicycling primarily for fitness and entertainment. 

Only rarely do I see congestion or crowded conditions on these trails. But in my car, I’m dealing with traffic snarls on a daily basis.

Driverless cars offer hope for crowded highways in the future, but widespread use of driverless vehicles is still 20-30 years away.

Alternative transportation vehicles are part of an existing and rapidly growing industry, and this industry is anxiously waiting for a community to champion their cause. It certainly may not be Colorado, but the opportunity is poised and waiting to happen.

So is it possible to reduce today’s emphasis on our heavy transportation highway system with a new alternative transportation network? I’d love to hear your thoughts.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” – the book that changes everything

.

.

.

 Mobility device designed by Bimal Rajappan in India

Bimal Rajappan is a Mobility and Vehicle Design student from India. He displayed his Segway inspired wearable mobility design at the Design Degree Show 2012, an annual design festival organized by IIT Bombay’s Industrial Design Center.

The design involves two hubless wheels, which the user straps to his legs and is powered with electric motors. The controller unit, which is also used to stabilize the wearer, is strapped on like an exoskeleton.

The concept includes suspensions through a pneumatic system comprising of dampers. Bimal call them air muscles. A battery and the processing unit are attached to the back of the frame inside an LED illuminated unit.

Bimal Rajappan

.

.