M.J. Dees's Blog, page 5

#128 the wider effect of George Floyd’s death

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Photo by Josh Hild on Pexels.com

What has been happening around the world in terms of inequality and prejudice is tragic and unacceptable and has been going on for hundreds of years.

It is also a shame that it requires tragedies like the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis this year, or the death of Mark Duggan in London in 2011 for society to sit up and take notice.

Like the death of George Floyd, the death of Mark Duggan was followed by widespread rioting and looting. I remember having to leave a supermarket via the delivery entrance with my 3-year-old daughter because rioters were heading our way and the shop had closed the front doors which would later be broken.

Of course, it is right that people protest against the injustice of the situation but I wonder how many of those who stole phones out of shop windows in Clapham Common in 2011 had the tragic death of Mark Duggan on their minds as they looted. Interestingly, the bookshop next to the phone shop was untouched.

We need to be still talking about inequality when the media has lost interest in the riots and the protests and not look on minority ethnic groups with pity but celebrate the successes and work towards a world where the same opportunities are available to everyone.

The lack of social distancing at the protests and riots will result in more cases of Covid-19 and it is an unfortunate fact that those with darker skins will be disproportionally affected by the disease. This is partly due to economic and social conditions which result in poorer nutrition and a greater prevalence of underlying conditions but also to the simple fact that darker skin takes longer to absorb vitamin D which can result in a vitamin D deficiency and a poorer immune response.

The effect of this increase in cases on the medical services will only be seen in around three weeks and, at a time when distancing measures ate being relaxed, the impact will be greater.

Another unfortunate effect of the death of George Lloyd has been the way the police have responded to both the public and the press.

The New York Times has observed how the police have reacted to protests how their unnecessary use of force, with more force. Possibly even more worrying is that the status of a free press has been compromised by police action against journalists and camera operators.

This disregard for journalists is worrying in a society which already has a worryingly high level of gun ownership. In Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaro appears to ape every move made by President Trump such as threatening to leave WHO, the situation is, even more, worrying with Bolsonaro suggesting that he wants to arm people to prevent a dictatorship.  Then, in a publicity student, he drank milk in one of his broadcasts, a gesture associated with white supremacy and was seen riding around on a horse breaking the law that requires everyone to wear a mask in public places.

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The situation here in Brazil continues to worsen and the Ministry of Health has responded by changing the statistics the present on a daily basis so that, at a glance, the situation does not look so bad. States and local governments are relaxing restrictions in Brazil, it is almost as if they think the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths graphs in Europe are referring to Brazil and that they have no idea that Brazil is not bending the curve.

Many shops and businesses here that are meant to be closed are actually allowed customers onto their premises, the inadequate economic support from the Government leaves people with little choice but to try and make money. The Federal Government has just transferred R$83.9m ($16.91m) from the family benefits system (Bolsa Familia) to pay for Coronavirus Propaganda. The University of Washington has warned that Covid-19 deaths in Brazil could reach 125,000 by August.

 

 

 

#127 Remembering Dunkirk

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I wanted to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the evacuation at Dunkirk, so I thought I would share this short excerpt from my book, Fred & Leah, which is a fictionalised account of my grandfather’s experience in France – he was one of those tens of thousands left behind after the evacuation.

Thursday, 23rd May 1940 – Lanheres, France

“I won’t lie to you, Wooll,” Major Potts told Fred when he had managed to reunite his platoon with the battalion and the rest of the 51st Highland Division at Lanheres near Etain. “The general situation is very serious.”

The major looked around to check there was no one to overhear.

“You’re a career military man, like me. You’ve been around a bit, you know what it’s like. Between you and me, it’s now not so much a question of the division re-joining the BEF, as avoiding destruction or surrender.”

Fred had imagined the situation was bad, but this had exceeded his worst expectations.

Major Potts checked once more that the coast was clear before lowering his voice to a virtual whisper.

“It’s becoming apparent that the French are collapsing.  It sounds like they’ll try to evacuate the BEF from the coast, so we’re going to move somewhere north of Paris, and from there we should be able to make it to Le Havre.”

Fred didn’t want to show it, but inside he was relieved. News of a boat from Le Havre to England, where Leah and the rest of his family were, was the best news he had received in months.

“I heard the French have been giving up by the thousands, sir. They think they’ll be taken prisoner and then sent to their homes.”

“Of course, none of this is definite, you understand,” warned the Major. “I’m telling you because I know you’ll be able to maintain the spirits of the men without going into detail.”

“I understand,” said Fred.

“Get your men ready to leave tonight. Keep this under your hat, but we’re heading to Cornay, near Varennes. It’s about fifty miles, but it’ll take a couple of nights to get there. The roads are congested with French transport and refugees, and the route may be difficult to find.”

 

If you would like to read more, you can download a free sample of the book here.

#126 The economic impacts of Covid-19 in Brazil

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As you should be able to see from the graph above, about 55 days into the pandemic here, Brazil has not yet managed to bend the curve and is now registering the second-highest official daily total of deaths in the world.  Needless to say, the actual number of daily deaths above the average is likely to be much higher but the data is difficult to obtain.

There are several reasons why Brazil’s efforts have been so ineffective in containing the virus so far, not least because the President, Jair Bolsonaro, parades around in a Trumpesque display of sound bites calling the virus the sniffles, sacking his health ministers and encouraging people to gather in protests where he can shake their hands and cough on them. In this appearance, reported by the Mail Online, there are some salutes which are frighteningly close to Naziesque but perhaps that’s how they always pray.

From the early days of the pandemic, Bolsonaro has been at odds with the state governors who have been trying to encourage social distancing in an effort to flatten the curve. He knows that the economic consequences of the virus are going to be significant in Brazil and he is setting himself up for a time after the pandemic when he can blame the recession on the political rivals whose measures he is now opposing.

The unfortunate immediate consequence of this is that many Brazilians, especially those on the right-wing who support Bolsonaro, are not taking the mitigation measures seriously and in some instances are deliberately trying to hinder local government efforts to slow the spread. It is estimated that only 48% are self-isolating but the target is 70%.

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“Brazilian scientists have created a mask with the capacity to save millions of lives.”

For example, as traffic on the streets increased as paulistas tired of staying at home, the Sao Paulo mayor, Bruno Covas attempted to implement a rule which would permit only cars with registrations ending in even numbers to be used on dates which had even numbers and cars with registrations ending in odd numbers could only be used on dates with odd numbers. The measure would effectively keep half of the motorists at home at any one time but the result was not effective and so they withdrew the measures after one week.

Covas says that Sao Paulo hospitals are at 90% capacity (91% yesterday) and could run out of space within two weeks. and so has taken the desperate measure of taking two bank holidays from June and November and moving them to tomorrow and Thursday with a third holiday proposed to be moved from July to next Monday, effectively creating a six-day holiday.  He explained his reasoning by saying that yesterday Sao Paulo only saw 56% isolation and that the periods of highest isolation have been on holidays and at weekends. However, the immediate effect of this seems to be lost of paulistas heading to the beach for a long weekend, the state government did not co-ordinate any measures to prevent this mass exodus.

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Cars queuing at toll booths on their way to the beach for the surprise long weekend

It is not only the covidiots that are breaking the isolation. It is very easy for white-collar workers like me to work from home and continue receiving my salary, but for those who worked in the restaurants and bars or shops that have been closed by the state governor, or those who were employed to clean them or the homes, schools, universities which are no longer employing as many cleaners, security guards or kitchen staff, then life is not quite a rosy.

Adults who find themselves unemployed and have a family income of less than the monthly minimum wage (approximately $500) can apply for emergency help from the government which is equivalent to just over $100 per month. So far, 50 million people, a quarter of the population and a half of the working population, have applied to receive the benefit.

The scheme has been administered online through an application but given that in 2016 only half the population was online and this was predicted to rise to 68% by the end of 2019, it is not surprising that large queues formed outside banks with people wanting to apply. Needless to say, the social distancing rules were not rigidly applied in these situations despite the best efforts of some of the staff.

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“The council marked out the queue to ensure social distancing but the people always find a way”

For families in which the household income has been lost completely this emergency help is not going to go very far, even if they are in receipt of Bolsa Familiar (government benefit equivalent to family allowance). So, it is not surprising that hairdressers, barbers and beauty salons are inviting customers for illicit cuts, waxes and polishes. Even my local off licence (liquor store) only has the shutters half closed so that regular customers can top up their stocks. Bolsonaro declared hairdressers,  beauty salons and, amazingly, gyms as essential services so in some cities they have already re-opened.

When I arrived in Brazil I was told that the country does not have hurricanes, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, the only natural disaster, I was told, is the people. It certainly seems that, in the case of Covid-19, there are those who are struggling to isolate but there are also many who refuse to listen to science and prefer the platitudes of those who should know better.

# 125 The real losers of the Coronavirus are the usual suspects

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Obviously, there are no real winners of the Coronavirus pandemic, unless you count supermarkets and Amazon who seem to be doing quite well at the moment. What I mean by my deliberately provocative title is that there are those who are fairing much worse with the virus and others who are predicted to suffer as the virus spreads across the world.

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There is quite a lot of data showing how those in older age groups are more at risk of dying from Covid-19, those with underlying conditions are more at risk and in addition to this those in certain ethnic groups appear to be more at risk.

In the UK, it has been estimated that black Africans are 3.7 times more likely to die than would be expected, even when taking into account their geographical location and age. Health conditions, living conditions and occupation may all be contributing factors. The socio-economic situation, access to health care and deprivation clearly play a role, however, very little is being said about the biological fact that those with darker skins absorb vitamin D much slower and vitamin D’s role in the immune system. Political correctness seems to be dictating that we cannot talk about factual biological differences between races that don’t make one race better than another. Dark skins absorb vitamin D more slowly but they are better at protecting from harmful UV rays.

Dr John Campbell has been arguing the importance of vitamin D and the immune system on his YouTube channel and posted a study from Indonesia which suggested that vitamin D deficiency could make patients 10 times more likely to die of Covid-19. Obviously, this is only one study and much more work needs to be done but asking your doctor whether you should supplement your diet with vitamin D, especially if you have dark skin or if you don’t get much sun, seems like a good idea.

Another issue Dr Campbell has been highlighting on his YouTube channel is the inequality between developing and developed nations in their ability to respond to the virus. For example, Italy has 80 ventilators per million people compared to Kenya which only has 0.5 ventilators per million. The UK has 28 doctors per million people whereas the Democratic Republic of Congo has less than one per million. In Nigeria, only 4 out of ten people have access to running water which is going to make handwashing quite difficult. On top of this, underlying conditions such as TB, HIV, Malnutrition and Malaria are widespread across Africa.

In addition, David Nott, a trauma surgeon from Wales who has volunteered in crisis and conflict zones, says there is only a short amount of time before the most vulnerable parts of the planet are hit by the coronavirus.  In a paper to the Lancet, he said: “The main positive influences on reducing the number of deaths from COVID-19 have been handwashing, social distancing, and the lockdown. For the most vulnerable people on this planet, such strategies are not an option. People who live in conflict zones or in refugee camps cannot physically distance, they cannot self-isolate, they have inadequate facilities for washing, and are often without access to health care.”

Speaking on Sky, he added: “David Miliband, from the International Rescue Committee, did a survey very recently on 34 fragile countries using the same sort of modelling used by Imperial [College London].

“In these countries, he said there is going to be between 500 million to one billion infections”.

40 countries have pledged $8 billion to help fight the spread of the virus but questions have to be asked about whether this is going to be enough and why developed nations only consider health conditions to be important enough to fight serious after it has affected their own citizens.

According to UNICEF, 15,000 children die every day, most of these deaths are preventable. This has been going on for years. On September 11th 2001, 2,996 people died as a result of the terrorist attacks in the US, these deaths were, of course, tragic and they led to the invasion of Afganistan and then Iraq. In 2007, it was estimated that the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost US taxpayers a total of $2.4 trillion by 2017 when counting the huge interest costs because combat was being financed with borrowed money. Basic maths would then say the US spent $800 million for each person who died in the 2001 attacks.

In 2019, the New York Times estimated that over $2 trillion had been spent on the war in Afganistan alone.  They say there is little to show for it. The Taliban control much of the country. Afghanistan remains one of the world’s largest sources of refugees and migrants. More than 2,400 American soldiers and more than 38,000 Afghan civilians have died. The Taliban are getting stronger and stronger and in 2017 328,000 hectares were being cultivated for opium poppies as opposed to 84,000 in 2002.

UNICEF complains that global progress on child survival has stalled largely due to a lack of political commitment and leadership. Why are the lives of these children worth any less because they were born in a developing rather than a developed country? If 15,000 British children died in a day, the Prime Minister would be expected to do something pretty quick or he wouldn’t be the prime minister for long. Why are we not as appauled just because these children are dying somewhere else?

In 2017, the World Bank estimated that countries need to quadruple spending to $150 billion a year to deliver universal safe water and sanitation by 2030, helping to reduce childhood disease and deaths while boosting economic growth. This suggests that only $37.5 billion was being spent per year as of 2017, a mere $6,520 per infant mortality.

I believe we should apply the same value to people wherever in the world they happen to be born and it worries me that if Covid-19 had not affected so many people in developed nations we might not have been as bothered to do anything about it.

The World Food Programme is reporting that the coronavirus emergency threatens the delivery of vital food assistance to nearly 100 million hungry people. You can donate to the World Food Programme here.

Every week, around the world, hospitals, medical personnel and aid workers come under attack. They are not a target. Health Care in Danger  is an initiative of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement aimed at addressing the issue of violence against patients, health workers, facilities and vehicles, and ensuring safe access to and delivery of health care in armed conflict and other emergencies.

According to the UNHCR, conflict and heavy floods has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes in Somalia, amidst COVID-19 threat. You can donate to the UNHCR here.

You might be reading this while on lockdown yourself, or while watching the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly and without discrimination, make its way across the world. You can help UNICEF protect and support children and families affected by COVID-19.

After five years of war, people in Yemen have some of the lowest levels of immunity and the highest levels of vulnerability in the world. If that wasn’t enough, only half the hospitals are open. You can donate to the UN Population Fund here.

Medicins Sans Frontieres teams are racing to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic in over 70 countries, including opening projects in new countries as they become pandemic hotspots. You can donate to MSF here.

I understand that many of you reading may have lost your jobs as a result of this pandemic. My thoughts are with all of you and I will endeavour to write a post related to the economic and other impacts of Covid-19 soon.

Stay safe.

 

#124 Reading The Man in the High Castle

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I thought you might be up to your ears in posts about Covid-19, so decided to post a book review this week rather than reporting on the debacle that is unfolding in Brasil.

A friend of mine told me he had started watch the Amazon Prime series The Man in the High Castle, so I thought I would give it a go. I was already a couple of episodes in before I realised I had picked up a copy of the Philip K Dick novel from a backpackers hostel while on a stag weekend in Rio de Janeiro.

PKD, as he is affectionately known by those who like abbreviate the names of great people a la FDR or JFK, was quite a prolific author for his day, writing 44 novels and 121 short stories.

Some of his most notable works include Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep which was adapted into the film Bladerunner. Many of his short stories were used for a series of short animated films on Netflix called Love Death and Robots.

The novel of The Man in the High Castle is, as is often the case, quite different from the series. Elements of the novel are clearly recognisable in the series but the Amazon adaptation quickly departs from the original, adding new characters and new story lines. Having said that, both work in their own way and should be considered completely separate if they are to be enjoyed individually.

The book goes into much more detail regarding Frank and Eddy’s jewelry business and their relationship with Childan is quite different. Tagomi is central to the novel’s plot which is much more focussed on the role of the I Ching. Juliana and Joe are together in the neutral zone from early in the novel.

If you haven’t seen the Amazon series or read the book, you might be interested to hear that the novel is set in 1960s USA in an alternative history in which Germany and Japan were the victors of the Second World War. Both the novel and the series explore the concept of multiple universes and I would recommend reading the novel and then perhaps watching the series if you can tolerate how annoying some of the characters become.

Either way, they are both entertaining ways to avoid writing.