Kai Lukoff (klukoff) - Shanghai, 23, China (57 books)

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Kai Lukoff is currently reading:

Brave New World/Brave New World Revisited
by Aldous Huxley

read in January, 2010

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The Essays Of Warren Buffett by Lawrence A. Cunningham

The Essays Of Warren Buffett: Lessons For Investors And Managers
by Lawrence A. Cunningham

read in January, 2010

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Color Purple M
by Alice Walker

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The Fountainhead
by Ayn Rand

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The Prince
by Niccolò Machiavelli

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China Cuckoo
by Mark Kitto

read in June, 2009

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A compelling and comfortably written story of one man's life in China. Half is about a rural Chinese village and the other half about a media business operating in the gray zone and ultimately succumbing to the machinations of Chinese authorities.

M...more

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The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference
by Malcolm Gladwell

read in June, 2009

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Gladwell constructs a grand theory of the Tipping Point, but provides only weak support for it with a few cherrypicked anecdotes. Moreover, he often fails to distinguish between a mere "important factor" and a "Tipping Point" (which could lead to an ...moreGladwell constructs a grand theory of the Tipping Point, but provides only weak support for it with a few cherrypicked anecdotes. Moreover, he often fails to distinguish between a mere "important factor" and a "Tipping Point" (which could lead to an epidemic).

Take the example of the unsticky cigarette, for instance. Gladwell identifies three potential Tipping Points: 1) untreated depression; 2) a critical three-year window before casual smokers become regular smokers; 3)a nicotine addiction threshold. First, three "stickiness Tipping Points"? These just strike me as three factors out of a number that could affect nicotine addiction, not ones that drive an epidemic. Second, Gladwell discusses how there's no universal addiction threshhold--but why does he then persist on discussing a certain level of nicotine per cigarette as a Tipping Point driving addiction?

Other key examples, such as the "Broken Windows theory"have been largely debunked in the academic literature. See for example Freakonomics for a more thorough discussion of the sharp decrease in crime in the 1990s.

Also disappointing of all was that Gladwell failed to pick up on a seminal theory in political science that provides a solid theoretical and compelling anecdotal basis for the Tipping Point. In 1989, Timur Kuran wrote a journal article entitled "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," which explains how, "the people who come to dislike their government are apt to hide their desire for change as long as the opposition seems weak. Because of this preference
falsification, a government that appears unshakeable might see its support crumble following a slight surge in the opposition's apparent size, caused by events insignificant in and of themselves." In other words, the first few people to protest reduce the costs of protesting to subsequent protesters and increase the likelihood of success, thereby emboldening others to take to the streets.

I will say that the examples are quite entertaining, even if they don't always relate to the Tipping Point. Who knew for instance, that a significant number of smokers are "chippers," people who smoke at least four days a week, but less than 5 cigarettes a day? I also found the bit on Fundamental Attribution Error (and the "Good Samaritan" seminarians who walked over the sufferer on the street) to be a compelling anecdote on the power of context. Some stories though, such as the Hush Puppies one, were rehashed far too often.

The theory is interesting, but only tenuously supported by the evidence.(less)

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Eragon (Inheritance, #1)
by Christopher Paolini

read in January, 2007

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Kai Lukoff is now friends with Alyssa
Nov 02, 2011 11:24pm
Kai Lukoff added Goodreads to his Facebook Timeline Add your books to Timeline! learn more
Aug 07, 2010 03:18am
Kai Lukoff is currently reading: Brave New World/Brave New World Revisited by Aldous Huxley read in January, 2010	My rating:
Jan 07, 2010 07:44pm
Kai Lukoff gave to: The Essays Of Warren Buffett: Lessons For Investors And Managers by Lawrence A. Cunningham read in January, 2010	My rating:
Jan 07, 2010 07:42pm
Kai Lukoff gave to: Color Purple M by Alice Walker	My rating:
Jun 25, 2009 10:33pm
Kai Lukoff gave to: The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand	My rating:
Jun 25, 2009 10:33pm
Kai Lukoff gave to: The Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli	My rating:
Jun 25, 2009 10:33pm
Kai Lukoff gave to: China Cuckoo by Mark Kitto read in June, 2009	My rating:
A compelling and comfortably written story of one man's life in China. Half is about a rural Chinese village and the other half about a media business operating in the gray zone and ultimately succumbing to the machinations of Chinese authorities. M...more
Jun 25, 2009 10:32pm · see review
Kai Lukoff gave to: The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference by Malcolm Gladwell read in June, 2009	My rating:
Gladwell constructs a grand theory of the Tipping Point, but provides only weak support for it with a few cherrypicked anecdotes. Moreover, he often fails to distinguish between a mere "important factor" and a "Tipping Point" (which could lead to an ...more
Jun 19, 2009 04:57am · see review
Kai Lukoff gave to: Eragon (Inheritance, #1) by Christopher Paolini read in January, 2007	My rating:
Jun 07, 2009 02:24am

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