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Bugs > Why Have I not Won Anything since Mid-April

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message 1: by Carol (last edited Aug 05, 2012 12:20PM) (new)

Carol  MacInnis (carolmac9) | 9 comments I have been a member since February 2011 and I really enjoy Goodreads. I am an avid reader and once I finish a book I am anxious to get my review written and posted. I've even had authors approach me to read their books and review them. As of January 2012 I was doing great winning 4-5 giveaways a month and sometimes more. But since april 15th I have not won a single book even though I am constantly on Goodreads and am still posting my reviews religously. Could there be something wrong? I always check my list of giveaways after I have gone through the books and everything appears good. I am fully aware that the giveaways are totally random but am somewhat perplexed as why suddenly I seem to have lost the ability to win. Please help me. Thanks. Carol MacInnis


message 2: by [deleted user] (new)

I've been a member since June 2010. I haven't won a giveaway since April of 2011. Some folks have even longer dryspells.


message 3: by Chris (new)

Chris  (haughtc) | 156 comments I joined in January of 2009. I won three giveaways that year, and haven't won one since.


message 4: by Stefani (new)

Stefani (steffiebaby140) | 453 comments That is just the luck of the draw it seems. I had a pretty good run for awhile, winning 2-3 a month but haven't won a thing so far this year. You have to think of the odds. On average each giveaway is giving away let's say 5 copies. The average giveaway has around 600 entries. That's 0.008% chance of winning. And if there is only one copy, that's a 0.001% chance of winning.

From what I can see entries just keep rising and rising, which makes the chances of winning often less and less.


message 5: by Lobstergirl (new)

Lobstergirl | 4631 comments Carol wrote: "As of January 2012 I was doing great winning 4-5 giveaways a month and sometimes more. But since april 15th I have not won a single book even though I am constantly on Goodreads and am still posting my reviews religously. Could there be something wrong?"

Um, no. 4-5 books a month is WAAAAAY, way, way, way more than most people win or will ever win. Some might say you've had your turn and should give others a turn.


message 6: by Riona (last edited Aug 05, 2012 12:41PM) (new)

Riona (rionafaith) | 176 comments Lobstergirl wrote: "4-5 books a month is WAAAAAY, way, way, way more than most people win or will ever win. Some might say you've had your turn and should give others a turn."

This. Holy crap, that's a lot of wins.


message 7: by Anke (new)

Anke | 325 comments Well, I won one book in March 2011 and another one last month, so it looks as if you met your target already. With so many wins you can be very happy:) And let others be happy as well!


message 8: by Carol (new)

Carol  MacInnis (carolmac9) | 9 comments Thank you Ala, Chris and Stefani. I thought it was just me but it certainly appears that I am not alone. I understand what you're saying Stefani. I do look at the odds and realize they are pretty hard to beat. I guess I was feeling that perhaps there was some kind of a glitch in my giveaways since I was doing so darn good the first few months of the year. Thanks again for all the input. Much appreciated!
Your Goodreads friend, Carol


message 9: by Mike (new)

Mike  Davis (mldavis2) | 114 comments I won several when I first started two years ago, but my win ratio has fallen to next to nothing, even for books with low request rates. My wins are far below the expected probability of available copies to requests.


message 10: by Becky (last edited Aug 05, 2012 12:48PM) (new)

Becky (Beckyofthe19and9) | 3867 comments I've won 5 total when I first discovered the giveaways... and then nothing for about 2 years... and then I stopped entering.


message 11: by Carol (new)

Carol  MacInnis (carolmac9) | 9 comments You're right Anke and Lobstergirl. I was feeling exceptionally fortunate to have won as many as I did. My only concern was that there was something wrong with my computer. Then I just read Mike and Becky's comments and I truly feel very fortunate indeed. I'm sorry you stopped entering Becky. I guess I'm one of those die-hards and I just keep going, like the energizer bunny.


message 12: by Becky (new)

Becky (Beckyofthe19and9) | 3867 comments I entered any that looked interesting. Every once in a while, if I see a book I'm REALLY interested in, I'll enter for it, but I feel like it's futile since I never win. LOL


message 13: by Liza (new)

Liza | 5 comments I don't understand how not winning is a bug? It's like the lottery you have to play to win, but it's not a guarantee. I have heard the more reviews you have the more your chances go up-again not a promise that you'll win.

I think having won so many books makes you lucky. I've won zero and I still keep entering. Just like I plan to play Powerball even though I know it's like a zillion to one chances I'll win. :D


message 14: by Mike (new)

Mike  Davis (mldavis2) | 114 comments If there are 10 copies available and 200 requests, the probability of that should be 5% UNLESS the selection is NOT random. I know that there are subjective factors taken into account. Perhaps my reviews are too concise, perhaps my turn-around time is too long when I finish my current book before reading the review book, perhaps new solicitors are given higher priority.

Currently I only request books in genres that I feel qualified to read and review. I don't like many genres such as romance, zombies, vampires, religious testimonials, political opinions so I don't request them. Often that leaves very few from which to select.

Another thing I do is wait until 2 days before the deadline before submitting a request. I'm beginning to think it's possible that the actual selections are made either before the deadline, or from earlier entries. I'll test that theory later this month.


message 15: by Mel (new)

Mel (Soireb) | 233 comments I've been here since 2010 and I haven't win a single giveaway. Then again, I haven't entered that many either as only a handful of them will fully open internationally.


Petra X smokin' hot (PetraX) | 4826 comments Carol wrote: "But since april 15th I have not won a single book even though I am constantly on Goodreads and am still posting my reviews religously."

I don't know what goes into the algorithm that decides who wins what but I know that giveaways are not totally random.

I note that you have a private profile and that you have written a lot of reviews. I checked out quite a few and they were quite informative. Perhaps if they were more visible the algorithm might favour you more as obviously the authors are looking for publicity when they give away their books.


message 17: by AH (new)

AH | 741 comments I won a lot of books when I first joined then poof! I haven't won a book since Dec 2010. I read and reviewed every book. A lot of people seem to win when they first join then no more. What is maddening is that people with no books and no friends win.


message 18: by [deleted user] (new)

I won for awhile, then didn't win for awhile, then won for awhile, then didn't. I figure the best way to win is to keep entering and review the books you read in a reasonably timely manner. These seem to be the consistent factors that we have control over.

There are several past threads about giveaways, including statistical analyses, about which I'll only say that if there's a 5% chance of willing randomly, that's 5%. If you enter two with a 5% chance, that's 5% each, not 10%. Probability statistics aren't additive like that. And it's not random.


message 19: by Mike (new)

Mike  Davis (mldavis2) | 114 comments I believe the rules state that there is some subjective process used in picking "winners." I will continue to review the books I read. If I don't fit the criteria, I don't know what to do about it.


message 20: by Lobstergirl (new)

Lobstergirl | 4631 comments It's more secret sauce.


message 21: by mlady_rebecca (new)

mlady_rebecca | 2021 comments This thread makes me think there may be a magic threshold of books won that lowers your chance of winning again. That's never been mentioned as part of the secret sauce, but there seem to be a lot of people who have a good run of "luck" that suddenly drops off.

I've won 9 books total, only 3 of which I'd consider mainstream or popular. I won the last one in September of 2011.


message 22: by Lobstergirl (new)

Lobstergirl | 4631 comments I assume everyone is still making their animal sacrifices to Otis, so that's probably not it.


message 23: by Jennifer (new)

Jennifer D (DawsonOakes) | 293 comments okay - the title of this thread just made me laugh!! :)

i have been a member since august of 2009 and i haven't won anything. ever. i try each month and i am a very active member of goodreads.

while i haven't figured out the secret recipe to winning here (even though i have read the other threads on this subject) i am in awe of those who win often and repeatedly. wow!!

in contrast, on library thing...i win, on average, 6-8 books per year. i am not nearly as active over there. (and yes, i realize the algorithms are different.)

secret sauce indeed!! :)


message 24: by Misfit (new)

Misfit | 145 comments Lobstergirl wrote: "It's more secret sauce."

Lobstergirl wrote: "I assume everyone is still making their animal sacrifices to Otis, so that's probably not it."

Looooooooooool! I hope Hannah sees this thread :)

I used to win about one a month, and I didn't enter that many. Then I hit a dry spell even though I still won regularly at Librarything. I've stopped entering on both sites since 1) the library almost always gets them in the end and 2) the pressure to read and review ASAP is hampering any enjoyment I might get out of a book, especially one that isn't very good.


message 25: by Penumbra (new)

Penumbra | 19 comments Lobstergirl wrote: "I assume everyone is still making their animal sacrifices to Otis, so that's probably not it."

*smacks forehead* That's why I haven't been winning lately. I've been making my sacrifices to the wrong God!


message 26: by Jennifer (new)

Jennifer D (DawsonOakes) | 293 comments Lobstergirl wrote: "I assume everyone is still making their animal sacrifices to Otis, so that's probably not it."

i totally haven't done this yet. this could explain much! :)


message 27: by rivka, librarian moderator (new)

rivka | 11367 comments Mod
mlady_rebecca wrote: "This thread makes me think there may be a magic threshold of books won that lowers your chance of winning again."

No.

Do you expect threads that start, "I'm suddenly winning twice as many books as before! How do I keep this up?"


message 28: by Tala (new)

Tala   (Tala2) | 94 comments I've been a member for 13 months,entered many give aways and haven't won at all. Just figured it was the luck of the draw?


message 29: by Bea (last edited Aug 05, 2012 06:14PM) (new)

Bea  (BeaCharmed) | 80 comments Stefani wrote: "That is just the luck of the draw it seems. I had a pretty good run for awhile, winning 2-3 a month but haven't won a thing so far this year. You have to think of the odds. On average each givea..."

That was me, I won a bunch in a few months then nothing for a year. I check almost daily and usually find one or two that I am interested in. I just keep trying.

You do have to post a review of what you win here on goodreads, so if you don't or you take a long time, that can affect your odds.


message 30: by Becky (new)

Becky (Beckyofthe19and9) | 3867 comments Lobstergirl wrote: "I assume everyone is still making their animal sacrifices to Otis, so that's probably not it."

Animal sacrifices??! O_o

Whoops. That explains so much.


message 31: by lafon حمزة (new)

lafon حمزة نوفل (lafon) | 530 comments rivka wrote: 'Do you expect threads that start, "I'm suddenly winning twice as many books as before! How do I keep this up?"'

No, but that would be funny.


message 32: by Becky (new)

Becky (Beckyofthe19and9) | 3867 comments Nicki wrote: "Becky wrote: "Animal sacrifices??! O_o

Whoops. That explains so much."

So that's what you've been doing with all those kneecaps."


Well... yeah. =\


message 33: by [deleted user] (new)

I assume everyone is still making their animal sacrifices to Otis, so that's probably not it.

Damn it, I thought I was supposed to get otitis from my animosity.


message 34: by Dree (new)

Dree I have been a member since Jan 2008.

From Jan 2010 until April 2011 I won 8 books. I would receive, read, review, and win another within a week or 2. I did not know about the giveaways until shortly before I won my first.

I have not won another in over a year now. I have read and reviewed every book I have won. The last book I received did not arrive, the donor would not respond, and I had to get goodreads involved since I could not seem to win another while in limbo on one.

Lo and behold, I have never won another. In spite of (or because of) half-assed denials by gr powers that be, I believe I have been blacklisted/labelled as difficult due to one donor who did not follow thru on their promise or respond to my messages.

The books I enter for aren't even the super-popular ones. I tend to go for memoirs, cookbooks, literary fiction. Same as I always have. I have even checked the #s of people entering vs # of books for my entries. The ratios have barely changed, still I can't win.

And I never even panned one of my winners! Some were better than others, one was really good.

It is, truly, beyond frustrating. I wish gr would just fess up and say how their algorithms REALLY work.


message 35: by Stephen (new)

Stephen Matlock (stephenmatlock) I don't know how they work--I just assumed it is really random + some weighing towards people who participate in a certain, ambiguously referenced way.


message 36: by Becky (last edited Aug 05, 2012 07:36PM) (new)

Becky (Beckyofthe19and9) | 3867 comments I do believe that new users are more heavily weighted in the drawings, as something of an incentive to join and use Goodreads... There's always a plethora of no-avatar / no-books/ no-friends users winning, it seems.

Secret sauce, luck of the draw, whatever, I admit that it seems that many of us have the same experiences and observations. *shrug*


message 37: by [deleted user] (new)

Lo and behold, I have never won another. In spite of (or because of) half-assed denials by gr powers that be, I believe I have been blacklisted/labelled as difficult due to one donor who did not follow thru on their promise or respond to my messages.

I'm sorry for your frustration, but I had the same experience and have won a book since.


message 38: by Katharine (Ventureadlaxre) (last edited Aug 05, 2012 07:54PM) (new)

Katharine (Ventureadlaxre) (SkyPirate) | 335 comments I won three books in 2008 (when I first signed up) and not a single one ever since. All were read and reviewed. Ahh well.


message 39: by Kristine (new)

Kristine (Kristine_A) | 142 comments I started entering in 2010 and won about 10 books in a year. Then it took me about 3 months to read and review my last one (I believe we moved during that time) and I haven't won one since. Eh.

I stopped entering for a while and I think I'm ready to quit entering for good. The cost/benefit analysis of the time to search for a book that I might like + entering - odds of winning + obligation to quickly review a book I'm not sure I'll like = why am I doing this again?


message 40: by [deleted user] (last edited Aug 05, 2012 09:26PM) (new)

I only enter for books that interest me and which I'd be willing to bump up in the reading pile. Over 3 years of entries, my win rate is just above 2.5%.


Susanna - Censored by GoodReads (SusannaG) | 1126 comments It's just the odds, which keep getting worse because there are more people applying. I haven't won since March 2011.


message 42: by Joy (new)

Joy | 4 comments well I have not won one yet, and it seems the only ones I ever see are for the Kindle reader. I have a Nook Color. lol


message 43: by Stephen (new)

Stephen Matlock (stephenmatlock) Well, I just changed my give-away--I was going to give away 10 books on the 31st of this month, but I just changed the end date to the 15th so that I can get the book out to people faster.

Do you think a shorter turn-around time seems fairer for a give-away?


message 44: by Lisa (new)

Lisa Vegan (LisaVegan) | 8285 comments I'm sure there is no bug. I've been here over 5 years and I'm very active here, and I used to be even more active. I've won 13 books total, and consider myself fortunate, though of course I'd love to win more.


Moderatrix Lori  (ModeratrixLori) | 432 comments If anyone is interested in winning M/M Romance Books my group is gearing up for a big event where we'll be giving away around 400 books, plus gift certificates and swag. You're welcome to come share in the fun!


message 46: by Laima (new)

Laima | 123 comments rivka wrote: "mlady_rebecca wrote: "This thread makes me think there may be a magic threshold of books won that lowers your chance of winning again."

No.

Do you expect threads that start, "I'm suddenly winnin..."


hahaha! true say Rivka.


message 47: by Robin (new)

Robin (ukamerican) | 483 comments Joy wrote: "well I have not won one yet, and it seems the only ones I ever see are for the Kindle reader. I have a Nook Color. lol"

Unless they've changed this, Goodreads Giveaways aren't ebooks - in fact, I stopped entering them because I prefer reading on my Kindle and the giveaways are always for printed books. At least in the genres I read, they are.


message 48: by Mike (new)

Mike  Davis (mldavis2) | 114 comments It seems to be a trend that older users have decreased results. While that may be a marketing technique to encourage now members at the expense of old, it is counter-productive in that it eliminates experienced members and loads review ratings with newer and often more temporary 'members' many of whom seem to be younger passers-by looking for "free" books. That may also be the reason there are so many authors complaining that so many of their books are received but never reviewed.


message 49: by Lisa (new)

Lisa Vegan (LisaVegan) | 8285 comments Mike wrote: "and loads review ratings with newer and often more temporary 'members' many of whom seem to be younger passers-by looking for "free" books. That may also be the reason there are so many authors complaining that so many of their books are received but never reviewed."

I don't know if this is true but it does seem as though there are many inactive and new members who are listed as winners for books, although perhaps slightly less than there were some time ago?


message 50: by Christy (new)

Christy (ChristyLeeAnn) | 3 comments I'm a new member, only been a member for a month and I haven't won a book yet. I've entered in quite a few giveaways too. How would you know you won anyway, though?! hahaha I just assumed the book would show up at my door step :)


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