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The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy---How to Save Yourself and Your Country
by Peter D. Schiff
by Peter D. Schiff
For those who aren't familiar with Schiff's understanding of the economy I refer you to 2 things: 1) Schiff's book Crashproof (written in 2006) or Crashproof 2.0 (a copy of Crashproof but with commentaries after each chapter about how things played out in 2008). He wasn't just a "doomer" in predicting the 2008 financial crash; he explained why.
Secondly, he was recognized for his analysis by an economist, Bezemer, who wrote a paper "No One Saw This Coming." About a dozen other people were also recognized (note no Krugman-type Keynesians understood, because their economics ideas don't allow for such realities).
If you read books/articles by all of the "predictors" of the 2008 crash, you will find that none of them think it has been resolved. The problems weren't about a few regulations; they are about inherently spending more than what we produce. Their solutions, though, are all somewhat different.
Schiff understands we have to get back to the norm: we as a society have to live on less than what we make to recover. How to do this as a "gentle landing" or "peel off the bandaid" is the source for debate. His ideas are thoughtful and most probably realistic in the economic sense. Unfortunately, I doubt they are politically palatable because politicians won't admit the trouble we are in until it is too late. So while I agree with his message, I look at the book primarily for how I might handle things as an individual.
I also found the appendix on the history of money interesting.
The only thing I question when reading his book is his outlook on China. It is more positive than I hear from other analysts, and I don't know if anyone can be certain about the data coming from China. It seems to me a lot of his predictions (particularly inflation) would change if China is not as strong as he thinks. Therefore, my main criticism of the book is that I would like to see him discuss how things would work out "differently" if China isn't as healthy as he thinks it is.
In short, I think this is an important book in understanding the economy and trying to decide where to place your own investments and protect yourself.
Secondly, he was recognized for his analysis by an economist, Bezemer, who wrote a paper "No One Saw This Coming." About a dozen other people were also recognized (note no Krugman-type Keynesians understood, because their economics ideas don't allow for such realities).
If you read books/articles by all of the "predictors" of the 2008 crash, you will find that none of them think it has been resolved. The problems weren't about a few regulations; they are about inherently spending more than what we produce. Their solutions, though, are all somewhat different.
Schiff understands we have to get back to the norm: we as a society have to live on less than what we make to recover. How to do this as a "gentle landing" or "peel off the bandaid" is the source for debate. His ideas are thoughtful and most probably realistic in the economic sense. Unfortunately, I doubt they are politically palatable because politicians won't admit the trouble we are in until it is too late. So while I agree with his message, I look at the book primarily for how I might handle things as an individual.
I also found the appendix on the history of money interesting.
The only thing I question when reading his book is his outlook on China. It is more positive than I hear from other analysts, and I don't know if anyone can be certain about the data coming from China. It seems to me a lot of his predictions (particularly inflation) would change if China is not as strong as he thinks. Therefore, my main criticism of the book is that I would like to see him discuss how things would work out "differently" if China isn't as healthy as he thinks it is.
In short, I think this is an important book in understanding the economy and trying to decide where to place your own investments and protect yourself.
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