by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
The authors show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, learning to think probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic. [close]
Giveaway ends in:
Availability: 20 copies available, 116 people requesting
Giveaway dates: Jun 04 - Aug 10, 2015
Countries available: CA
by Daria Tataj (Goodreads Author)
With an analysis of innovation in the United States, China, and with a special emphasis on Europe, Innovation and Entrepreneurship answers the question "Why do innovation hubs emerge, and how can this process be replicated?" If you are seeking to create innovation as a CEO, entrepreneur, policy maker, or university leader, Innovation and Entrepreneurship will demonstrate the precise mechanisms that allow innovation hubs to attract global talent, risk capital, and accumulate knowledge. [close]
Giveaway ends in:
Availability: 1 copy available, 63 people requesting
Giveaway dates: Jul 14 - Aug 16, 2015
Countries available: US
by Kevin Gaughen (Goodreads Author)
It’s all the news channels can talk about: the White House has been bomb…more
It’s all the news channels can talk about: the White House has been bombed, there's chaos in the streets, and the United States has found itself in the throes of a violent revolution.
Surrounded by panicked people, washed-up journalist Len Savitz takes the crisis in stride. It’s nothing that a stiff drink won’t cure. After all, bad news only hurts optimists.
But when the mysterious leader of the rebels cherry-picks him to acquire certain information for her, Len is forced to go on an investigative mission where he uncovers millennia-old secrets and unwittingly triggers a chain of disturbing events that will determine the future of humankind.
Author Kevin Gaughen’s dynamic debut novel, Interest, creates a seamless alternate reality behind real-world political tensions while keeping pace with its page-turning plot. Interest is as riveting as it is thought-provoking.
Who really runs the world we live in? The further Len digs, the darker the answers appear to be… [close]
― Fareed Zakaria,
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
87 members, last active a day ago
5 members, last active 2 years ago
18 members, last active 5 months ago
3 members, last active 2 years ago