The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

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The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

3.89 of 5 stars 3.89 · rating details · 3,136 ratings · 383 reviews

For over three decades, Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he argued that computers would soon rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and mach...more

Trade Paperback, 652 pages

Published September 26th 2006 by Penguin (first published September 22nd 2005)

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Jan 21, 2009 David rated it 1 of 5 stars

Shelves: embarrassed-to-own, intellectual-con-artist-at-work, utter-dreck, read-in-2009

FUTURE SCHLOCK

(If you loved "Future Shock", and "The Celestine Prophecy" changed your life, this is the book for you)

But, wait! All those 5-star reviews gotta count for something, right? Well, let's take a look.

"We will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence with supercomputers by the end of this decade."

Really, Ray. How's that coming along? You've still got a year, two if we're charitable. But, even despite the spectacular vagueness of the claim, things are hardly looking...more

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Jun 02, 2008 Bryce Wilson rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: philosophy, misc

Tired of sleeping peacefully? Do you feel a bit to contented and secure as you go about your daily business? Has your overwhelming sense of anxiety and ennui drifted to a mere background drone rather then an overpowering howl?

Then dear friends this is the book for you! Guaranteed to make you weep softly in the night as you clutch your knees to your chest! Certified to make you stop showering! Neglect your loved ones and friends because damnit what's the point!!?!?! Darkly contemplate your razor...more

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Jun 26, 2011 Gendou rated it 1 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction

This starts with the thesis: Technological change is exponential!
This has been true for many measures such as micro-processor size, cost of mass-produced goods, etc.
It is not, however, a general rule of thumb to apply blindly to all things "technological"!
This seems to be Kurzweil's big mistake.
He extrapolates features of technology to an unrealistic infinity.

For example, Moor's law is running up against the quantum limit, so micro-processor size is exponential up to a fast-approaching limit.
To...more

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Jun 09, 2008 Trevor Jones rated it 1 of 5 stars

Perhaps I will revisit this book and its subject matter relatively soon, let me just say that not long after reading parts of this work I definitely count what is called "transhumanism" to be the "World's Most Dangerous Idea".

Perhaps if someone could explain to me these concepts in terms of why a human being with a shred of moral responsibility would even be slightly interested in pursuing the goal of much of what is discussed herein, I might reconsider my judgment.

Perhaps if what is discussed...more

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Jul 19, 2007 DJ rated it 5 of 5 stars Recommends it for: anyone with an interest in computers, technology, or biochemistry

Shelves: impactbooks, futurism

I would consider this an 'impact book', one that truly changed the way I perceive the world. Kurzweil aims to convince his reader that we are on the cusp of an exponential growth in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) that will fundamentally change humanity, creating humans that are fully integrated with machines, live as long as they like, and frequently immerse themselves in virtual worlds. Its premise sounds a bit far-fetched but his meticulous research, incredibly broad grasp of cur...more

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Jan 17, 2008 Dan rated it 5 of 5 stars

Kurzweil has made a living of being a futurist and an inventor. Many of his inventions are the result of his predictions coming true, so there is good reason to listen to what he has to say on the topic. The main idea is that the evolution of technology is not linear (as most people think) but exponential. This exponential development of key technologies leads to dramatic changes in human history over relatively short periods of time. Good examples include the internet and cell phones. The book...more

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Aug 09, 2011 Neelesh Marik added it · review of another edition

For anyone interested in, and/or connected to the world of technology, this opus by Ray Kurzweil will be an immensely enjoyable read. The author is an inventor, entrepreneur, thinker, futurist but most importantly an exponent of the evolutionary school of ‘Transhumanism’, which celebrates the power and the process of emerging technologies changing the very definition of what it means to be human.

The basic premise of the book is what is called the ‘Law of accelerating returns’, mathematically emp...more For anyone interested in, and/or connected to the world of technology, this opus by Ray Kurzweil will be an immensely enjoyable read. The author is an inventor, entrepreneur, thinker, futurist but most importantly an exponent of the evolutionary school of ‘Transhumanism’, which celebrates the power and the process of emerging technologies changing the very definition of what it means to be human.

The basic premise of the book is what is called the ‘Law of accelerating returns’, mathematically empiricized through a large number of logarithmic plots of data. The exponential growth in the price-performance equation of computation (originally trend-set by the famous Moore’s law) is applicable to a wide range of technologies in the information revolution of the 21st century. The three salient ones are: genetics or biotechnology which exponentially increases the capacity and performance in the field of biology, nanotechnology which brings about mastery to materials and mechanical systems, and finally robotics or ‘strong AI’ which reverse engineers the human brain and combines the resulting insights in increasingly powerful computational platforms.

The future GNR (genetics, nanotech and robotics) will not come about from the exponential explosion of computation alone, but rather the interplay and enormous synergies emerging from the intertwined technological advances, ultimately leading to what the author calls the ‘Singularity’, a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability wherein all biological limitations will be transcended. He even postulates a date for this: namely the year 2045 when the non-biological intelligence created will be 1 billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today!

In his fascinating thought process of establishing how this will happen, the author deals with many related and contrarian viewpoints and insightfully analyses their implications: the information based theory of physics proposed by Edward Fredkin and Stephen Wolfram and the gymnastics of the cellular automata, the paradigm of Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and related technologies, the anthropic principle and the deterministic paradox, chaos and complexity theory, the Church-Turing hypothesis, John Searle’s Chinese room analogy (this particular critique has been near brutal!), William Dembski’s Intelligent Design theory, Bill Joy's Relinquishment advocacy, and of course the Deep Fritz draws of computer chess.

Many people have labelled Kurzweil as a materialist and a reductionist. I do not agree with that – although he is an unstoppable optimist, I think his Chapter 7 demonstrates a deep appreciation of human consciousness and raises some fundamental existential questions about what really constitutes human essence. ‘I am the pattern that water makes in a stream as it pushes past the rocks in its tracks. The actual molecules of water change every millisecond, but the pattern persists for hours or even years’.

Like any pragmatic technologist, a careful consideration of the promise-peril duality of the singularity has been dealt with in Chapter 8.

In summary, this book makes one look forward to reversing or at least arresting the aging process, because there is so much fun to be had in the coming years!

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Jan 11, 2011 Mangoo rated it 5 of 5 stars

Gli umani trascenderanno i loro limiti biologici? Secondo Raymond Kurzweil la risposta e' si. Inevitabilmente.
Ray e' un ex bambino prodigio, inventore e imprenditore di successo. Da tempo, ovvero fin da tempi non sospetti, sostiene il filone di pensiero esposto estensivamente nel libro (sorta di seguito dei precedenti "Age of intelligent machines" and "Age of spiritual machines"). La sua visione del futuro si sintetizza nel predire (attorno al 2045) il raggiungimento della Singolarita', cosa ch...more Gli umani trascenderanno i loro limiti biologici? Secondo Raymond Kurzweil la risposta e' si. Inevitabilmente.
Ray e' un ex bambino prodigio, inventore e imprenditore di successo. Da tempo, ovvero fin da tempi non sospetti, sostiene il filone di pensiero esposto estensivamente nel libro (sorta di seguito dei precedenti "Age of intelligent machines" and "Age of spiritual machines"). La sua visione del futuro si sintetizza nel predire (attorno al 2045) il raggiungimento della Singolarita', cosa che lo rende uno dei pensatori piu' apprezzati del movimento trans-umanista.
Con la singolarita', l'intelligenza artificiale superera' quella biologica, o umana per gli antropocentrici. Da quel momento la vita non sara' piu' la stessa (ammesso che ancora lo sia nel cammino che ci porta alla Singolarita' stessa).
Il libro cerca di sostenere questa tesi. E lo fa in maniera quantomeno esaustiva, se non convincente. Innanzitutto, un apparato bibliografico e di approfondimento gigantesco, con citazioni e riferimenti aggiornati (al 2005, per lo meno) su tutti i campi dello scibile affrontati (e si puo' immaginare che un accadimento del genere li interessera' proprio tutti). Una struttura del libro logica e consequenziale, ricca di riferimenti intertestuali e multimediali (il sito associato, Kurzweil.net, e' un aggiornamento e approfondimento quotidiano del libro, ed e' spettacolare per molti altri motivi). Un incedere piuttosto sistematico, aperto alle critiche ma convinto delle posizioni prese. Il tutto con in sottofondo un ottimismo pervasivo, che tuttavia risulta angosciante se non terrificante per gli antropocentrici e i fondamentalisti (ammetto che sono vizi di cui e' difficile liberarsi; ma non e' impossibile, e forse prima o poi bisognera' farlo definitivamente).
La prospettiva tracciata parte dalla constatazione quantitativa e massiccia che l'evoluzione di ogni espressione umana basata su conoscenza e informazione, ovvero dalla tecnologia, procede esponenzialmente (vi viene in mente la "legge" di Moore? bene, si tratta solo di uno tra centinaia di indici con lo stesso trend, se non piu' veloce). Dunque l'accelerazione e' in atto da tempo e sara' sempre piu' evidente e onnipresente, e secondo Kurzweil ci portera' dritti a fonderci con le nostre stesse creature, le quali a loro volta saranno il frutto sinergico di genetica, nanotecnologia e robotica (intelligenza artificiale forte) (GNR, in breve). Sara' improprio e inaccurato, ovvero pregiudiziale, chiamare queste creature ancora artificiali, perche' saranno a tutti gli effetti (se correttamente o auspicabilmente formate) espressioni dirette ed informate della nostra civilta', dei nostri valori e delle nostre idee. Insomma, saranno, almeno all'inizio, umane sotto nuove spoglie. A quel punto la distinzione addirittura potrebbe essere addirittura marginale o senza senso, per cui la fusione sara' facile ed indolore.
Ma non si trattera' ovviamente di un processo istantaneo. Kurzweil pronostica le tappe dello sviluppo, ipotizzando realta' virtuale onnipresente, nanorobot nel sangue per curarci, corpo umano 2.0 e 3.0 con durata di vita arbitraria, upload delle personalita' e condivisione istantanea delle informazioni cosi' come gia' possibile tra macchine, fino ad arrivare a una civilta' intelligente totalmente penetrata, immedesimata e unificata con la materia tanto da riempire l'intero universo di intelligenza. Non sara' difficile ai nostalgici vedere in questa progressione vertiginosa una trascendenza che portera' noi stessi a diventare simili a quello che si chiama "dio".
Cio' che rende interessante e coinvolgente il libro, e a differenziarlo da un semplice pezzo di fantascienza, e' la sua aderenza alla (cono)scienza attuale (ma questo e' ovviamente anche in grosso difetto, anche se inevitabile, perche' non tiene conto di futuribili scoperte e invenzioni fondamentali quanto l'elettromagnetismo), ai vincoli del reale (ma non del plausibile, ovviamente: anzi, l'intero libro e' un esercizio di espansione della percezione notevole). Kurzweil e' bravo a non scadere (almeno non sempre, o non volontariamente per quanto possibile) nel delirio di onnipotenza o in farneticazioni sconclusionate degli invasati dall'ottimismo tecnologico (della serie: "nel 100000 l'uomo si sara' evoluto ed avra' fatto tutto", come sinstetizzano con geniale ironia gli EelST in "Caro 2000"). A riprova, il libro dedica un intero capitolo ai pericoli intrinsecamente connessi ad un cattivo o deviato uso delle stesse tecnologie che permetteranno di raggiungere la Singolarita' - che non faranno altro che amplificare a dismisura i pericolo intrinseci in ogni impresa e conseguente conoscenza scientifica. Kurzweil conviene con il Foresight Institute, fondato da Eric Drexler (il supposto "fondatore" della nanotecnologia), sulla necessita' di imporre l'abbandono di alcuni filoni di ricerca o di alcune applicazioni di queste tecnologie (per esempio i nanorobot intelligenti auto-replicanti, che potrebbero annichilare l'intera biomassa del pianeta in 90 minuti).
E il capitolo finale dedicato alle risposte ai critici affronta anche molti argomenti filosofici e generali, smascherando dietro a molte delle obiezioni o negazioni della Singolarita' della semplice ignoranza, antropocentrismo, fondamentalismo umanista. Spicca soprattutto la ridicolizzazione dell'argomento della "stanza cinese" di John Searle contro le pretese della intelligenza artificiale forte.

In conclusione, un tomo ardito, spregiudicato, provocatorio e presuntuoso, ma ragionato e assai interessante se non altro per le miriadi di spunti di riflessione e relativizzazione che effonde da ogni pagina, la quantita' di informazione che propone e su cui si basa e la vastita' degli orizzonti e delle prospettive che affronta.
Un libro letteralmente per super-uomini.

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May 19, 2013 G.g. Galt rated it 5 of 5 stars

This review is from: The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Kindle Edition)
Ray Kurzweil is a brilliant inventor, writer and scientist who has more than earned his reputation as the best-known futurist in the world today.

The last time I saw him was on television in 2012 speaking at a spot on the Super Bowl. You or your parents may remember him when he first appeared as a boy genius on a major television show before the world had any idea of the impact computers would make--others...more This review is from: The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Kindle Edition)
Ray Kurzweil is a brilliant inventor, writer and scientist who has more than earned his reputation as the best-known futurist in the world today.

The last time I saw him was on television in 2012 speaking at a spot on the Super Bowl. You or your parents may remember him when he first appeared as a boy genius on a major television show before the world had any idea of the impact computers would make--others will recall how he made a grand piano sound realistic, and the work he did with Stevie Wonder--doctors will remember the device he invented to make transcribing their notes easier.

Back in 1998 I was first introduced to Dr. Kurzweil at the Harvard Coop Bookstore in Harvard Square. On the main floor in a big center display, I discovered his newly released book, "The Age of Spiritual Machines." I went back to my dorm and read it cover to cover over the weekend. On Monday, excited about the book, I shared it with my meta-physics professor, who'd heard about the book. He recommended I read a critical review by John Searle. From that article I learned Ray's book was controversial. It still is, even though most of his many predictions and theories have come true.

I corresponded with Dr. Kurzweil to get help with my Meta-Physcis Class. Shortly thereafter, I got a message he and his family were at the White House attending a New Year's Eve party for three hundred people. It blew me away that he had taken the time to e-mail his friends New Years greetings along with pictures of what had just happened --President Clinton awarding him the "Inventor of the Year" award from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the 1999 National Medal of Technology.

For any who may not know, that is the highest award the President of the United States can bestow upon individuals and groups for pioneering new technologies.

Shortly thereafter, President Clinton presented Kurzweil with the National Medal of Technology in recognition of his development of computer-based technologies to help the disabled.

In April of that year following lunch and an interview for my final meta-physics paper, Dr. Kurzweil gave me a tour of his Brookline facilities. There he graciously allowed me to demonstrate my most recent invention--the forerunner to what was soon to become the world's most popular guitar-like product.

Just how much of what Dr. Kurzweil predicts in "The Singularity Is Near" comes true, no one knows, but there's no denying, much of it already has. Whether an individual is a person of faith, or not, the predictions in The Singularity Is Near, can provide comfort that modern technology can eventually bring peace and prosperity to the world. And even, eternal life. We'll not only get new hearts and lungs, but any body part imaginable--that one day, it'll be difficult to distinguish where being human ends and a being a robot begins.

Bottom line, this book does an excellent job of arguing that the evidence offered by Moore's Law is better than other forecasting methods. It does equally as well at explaining the implications of those trends. Best of all, anyone can pick up this book and understand it.

You don't have to be a scientist to understand or appreciate what he writes.

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Feb 27, 2013 Andre Rafinon rated it 4 of 5 stars

Nicely referenced, a bit dry in places. It didn't touch on the natural trend of civilizations to collapse or if we will run out of resources before it can happen or destroy ourselves. Also a bit Ego centered, but no worse then any other philosophy/theology, and very optimistically hopeful.

The idea of humans transcending though technology and the treat of
"grey goo" through nanotechnology.
When an A.I. is developed and it's intelligence dwarfs our own, it would not only embed and enhance humans...more

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Feb 19, 2013 Billie Pritchett rated it 1 of 5 stars

Ray Kurzweil's Singularity Is Near is an argument for a technology singularity coming in the near future, a time when machines will have and be able to make other machines with intelligence comparable to human beings, and he expects this to happen in year 2045. Kurzweil predicts that at some point after this machine production of other machines that human beings and other machines will be indistinguishable.

I am agnostic about the truth of the thesis, my complaints instead being about the writing...more

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Jan 01, 2013 Max rated it 1 of 5 stars

This weighty volume is based on a simple observation. Technological progress mimics the exponential growth of reproductive processes in nature. Examples abound but are redundant because most result from applications of exponential growth in microprocessor manufacture. Kurzweil does not understand the underlying principle that technological progress is exponential only when developments spawn further advances. Failures and dead ends are conveniently ignored. Technologies can stagnate and become e...more

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Dec 11, 2012 E. Daniel Ayres rated it 5 of 5 stars

I just finished the audiobook version of this book, my first read of Ray Kurzweil material. I had to download and review his illustrations from the book's web site as a review. The book may represent the synthesis of an awful lot of his previous works as well as illustrate clearly his broad perception of many key mathematical concepts that should help all of us inform ourselves about what is really going on in our present generation. Almost any trend line I want to chart today displays an "L" sh...more

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Oct 11, 2012 Leonidas Kaplan rated it 5 of 5 stars

Summary: Not for the scientifically feint of heart! This book goes into such detail and precision of constructing a case for the exponentially accelerating advancing of technology.

The key technological advancements of the 21st century involve GNR: Genetics, Nano-Technology, & Robots. Detail goes into what has already been achieved in these fields, and what is currently underway (albeit, 2004-2005, prior to even Watson).

More emphasis is placed on the exponential developments of "Strong" Arti...more

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Feb 19, 2012 Alex rated it 3 of 5 stars

This one is interesting if not for its prediction of the future then for its easy to comprehend explanations of what we have already accomplished today. Written in 2005 Ray Kurzweil, holder of 16 patents, discusses, using the "exponential function", what we should expect in the future of engineering, communication, and its rapid rate of availability. For example, looking the rate of growth of communication: from word of mouth to written letters to Morse code to phone lines to e-mail, computers,...more This one is interesting if not for its prediction of the future then for its easy to comprehend explanations of what we have already accomplished today. Written in 2005 Ray Kurzweil, holder of 16 patents, discusses, using the "exponential function", what we should expect in the future of engineering, communication, and its rapid rate of availability. For example, looking the rate of growth of communication: from word of mouth to written letters to Morse code to phone lines to e-mail, computers, and eventually the internet to wireless communication and eventually its miniaturization and finally that mulit-function cell phone we all have somewhere within 4 feet of where we are right at the moment you are reading this. (if its outside 4 feet at this moment its the exception)

Technology, he suggests, is growing at a rapid rate and its getting faster. The exponential function is the base of his argument; claiming we will understand the brain in its entirety by the early 2020's, a feat that we believed at the time, and even now, 50 years or more away. As communication, utilization of today as well as future technology, and easier methods of organization are increased they will grow even faster. As each new technology is discovered or invented we are adding more fuel to the fire. Dr. Kurzweil calls this "the law of accelerating returns" and goes on to explain that as these new inventions are created they will become more affordable, smaller, and more efficient and at an even fast rate.

The "Singularity" is the future period in which technological change will be so rapid, its impact will be so profound that every aspect of human life will be irreversibly transformed. Ray gets a 3 star rating from me even though he gives a compelling argument that computers will have consciousness in just 20 more years and that we will have relationships with them, believes we will be able to slow the aging process and eventually end death, that we will be able to download information straight to our brains as we speed up the brain and its ability to store information.

Much of this book is easy to explain and it gives a romantic view of the future that is both attractive and can make one uncomfortable at the same time. The ideas he tries to prove are amazing and seem impossible but he gets three stars because it is an interesting read and a good argument but that doesn't make him right. Has a documentary, free on Netflix, called "Transcendent Man" is worth watching and you may understand my feelings by its explanation.
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Sep 10, 2011 Keith Swenson rated it 3 of 5 stars

For anyone whose job depends upon an understanding of the trajectory of technology, Ray Kurzweil has carefully formulated a clear vision of the future, including some pretty fantastic possibilities. We all know the future will be strange. Look back at the 1950's and see how futurists of that time completely missed most of things we take for granted today, and how surely those people would have been shocked if someone had accurately projected the future. Nobody, of course, can predict the future...more

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Jul 02, 2011 Sven rated it 3 of 5 stars

Shelves: science

The ideas in the book are big, no huge! The author points out and documents the exponential growth in many areas of technology, such as number of features on a chip, amount of memory for $1, CPU speeds, and many others. He outlines our trans-human future, when we as individuals will incorporate more and more non-biological memory, intelligence, and cell-size robotics technology in our very persons.

His extrapolations in genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and robotics/artificial intelligence are...more

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Apr 10, 2011 David rated it 3 of 5 stars

Well, I finished Ray Kurzweil's "The Singularity is Near." Very interesting book, though I'm still digesting the contents. I'm not going to attempt to summarize it, but I will say that I would recommend it as reading for anyone who thinks they will be alive more than 10 years from now, since even if he's wrong about 90% of what he predicts, he discusses the issues- and he's probably closer to right on 90% of what he says.

I was thinking as I read the book about one thing I disagree with his analy...more Well, I finished Ray Kurzweil's "The Singularity is Near." Very interesting book, though I'm still digesting the contents. I'm not going to attempt to summarize it, but I will say that I would recommend it as reading for anyone who thinks they will be alive more than 10 years from now, since even if he's wrong about 90% of what he predicts, he discusses the issues- and he's probably closer to right on 90% of what he says.

I was thinking as I read the book about one thing I disagree with his analysis about - he points out that as technology advances and gets cheaper, it spreads out, and quickly reaches the point where most of the globe has the new technology. Additionally, since the time between first adopters and laggards is speeding up, (for example, it took decades longer for telephones to spread to 50% of the population than it took cell phones,) the wealth disparity among people will disappear.

I'm going to have to disagree with the analysis, which I hope I presented fairly, if quickly. As technology accelerates, the growth accelerates as well - the difference one hundred years ago between the haves and have nots was smaller than it is now because the "haves" had less. A particular distance on the x-axis has a much larger difference the farther along an exponential curve the further along we go. I fear that even if the distance in terms of availability of technology in time between the haves and have-nots is decreasing exponentially, the technology curve is further along, and the gap will continue to grow. To illustrate this mathematically, we can see that two exponential growth curves offset by any finite amount grows arbitrarily far apart at some point. I'm not sure that this is surmountable.

To illustrate this point more anecdotally, let's assume that in the year 2030, Bill Gates gets his brain upgraded to integrate a nonbiological computer-based component, as one of the second generation of implants, enhancing his intelligence. He can now model understand computer user's preferences many times better then he previously could, and even manages to produce a version of Windows that doesn't suck. He can also understand market forces and pick a near-perfectly differentiated pricing model for Windows XY, and makes several billion more dollars over the next couple of months. Noticing his newfound brilliance, he realizes that the best way to spend his newfound money is to buy more computing capacity for himself, and does so, further widening the gap between him and us non-enhanced people. In fact, excepting the tendency he has recently displayed to give money to charity, I see no hope for anyone else in the world - he will continue to improve his personal computational ability, and grow his wealth to an unprecedented extent, (as if this has not already happened,) continually improve himself, and not share any of his newfound, proprietary technology since he understands that it will allow others to catch up with his lead, which given his 1 week, 10 billion dollar lead in computational ability, can now never happen - this is what those time-offset exponential curves meant earlier.

I was unimpressed by Kurzweil's discussion of the topic, but given how long the book was, it is entirely possible that this topic, being one of the least important things he discussed, was simply shortchanged in the book due to space considerations.(less)

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May 05, 2010 Tyson rated it 4 of 5 stars

It's been a few weeks since I read it and the details are already fuzzy - he provides a lot of examples and detailed explanations to back up his thesis. I skimmed through several paragraphs in a couple of the chapters because it gets pretty boring. But Kurzweil's main predictions are at times mind blowing, scary, difficult to buy into.

Kurzweil - who supposedly is a respected inventor and futurist who's made accurate predictions in the past - claims that through technological advances in Gene Th...more

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Dec 20, 2009 rmn rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction-science

By the 2020s technology will have caught up to and passed human thought/intelligence and by the year 2045 humans will merge with technology and transcend biology due to the revolutions in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.

This is not the outline of a science fiction novel, rather this is the thesis of futurist/inventor/smart guy Ray Kurzweil who sees a "singularity" approaching humanity at rapid speed. His thesis is based on the exponential growth of technology, an area that is growing so r...more By the 2020s technology will have caught up to and passed human thought/intelligence and by the year 2045 humans will merge with technology and transcend biology due to the revolutions in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.

This is not the outline of a science fiction novel, rather this is the thesis of futurist/inventor/smart guy Ray Kurzweil who sees a "singularity" approaching humanity at rapid speed. His thesis is based on the exponential growth of technology, an area that is growing so rapidly that the exponent is accelerating as well. As we are living at the bend in the vertical asymptote that is the technological revolution, we aren't as aware of the rapidity of it's growth, but stepping back we can see the increasing advancement in technology and perhaps think about the consequences.

It is a rather compelling thesis by Kurzweil and the first 100 or so pages of this book should be read by everyone as it outlines the pace of technological advancement and how it exponentially builds upon itself. I have no idea if Kurzweil's optimistic/futuristic thesis will come true in the next 30 years (he envisions an almost virtual reality world with lifetimes being extended indefinitely due to nanotechnology and nanobots taking over the maintenance of human beings' biology. He then sees a human/artificial intelligence/technology moving outward and filling the universe), and I have no idea how valid his research is or the studies he quotes, but I am convinced we are rapidly moving towards some world changing breakthroughs in that time period. Ten years ago Palm Pilots were cutting edge technology and now we have iPhones and 200 years ago the average lifepsan was 33 years and now it is in the 70s.

As for the book, after the first ~100 pages where Kurzweil lays out his thesis and some of the data behind it, the narrative turns into a ~350 page snore fest where Kurzweil supports his thesis by sprinkling in interesting ideas with a ton of gobbelty-gook. It is impossible for an average person to verify or refute much of the studies or data. Not helping this out is that Kurzweil's writing oscillates between boring and sleep inspiring. One can only hope that when he writes his next book, artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of being able to help him with his prose.

That said, this is a difficult book to rate because the ideas are a 5 (whether they are right or wrong, they are fascinating) but the writing is maybe a 2, if you round up to the nearest prime number (though lucky for most, this is being made into a movie/documentary in 2010 so you can just watch that). I do highly recommend reading the first 100ish pages though (and 30 of them are probably charts so it is a quick read) and then skimming the rest.(less)

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Dec 26, 2009 Chad Warner rated it 3 of 5 stars Recommends it for: Sci-fi fans, futurists, technologists

Recommended to Chad by: Leo Laporte

Shelves: non-fiction

This book has been referenced several times on TWiT podcasts, so I finally wised up and read it. This is definitely not light reading - it's 500 pages of chemistry, biology, computer science, history, and conjecture, plus additional notes at the end.

The basic premise is that the rate of technological advances increases exponentially, and that this will lead to a point around the year 2040 where humans become more nonbiological than biological. We'll not only continue to integrate technology into...more This book has been referenced several times on TWiT podcasts, so I finally wised up and read it. This is definitely not light reading - it's 500 pages of chemistry, biology, computer science, history, and conjecture, plus additional notes at the end.

The basic premise is that the rate of technological advances increases exponentially, and that this will lead to a point around the year 2040 where humans become more nonbiological than biological. We'll not only continue to integrate technology into our existing bodies and brains, we'll go so far as to create virtual instantiations of ourselves in virtual reality, doing away with the need for a physical body at all.

Kurzweil considers the human use of technology a continuation of the evolutionary process; he says that evolution produced humans, and humans produced technology, so evolution is indirectly using technology to push us further than any other species, and we'll transcend biology itself. I'm a creationist, so I don't agree with him on this point, but his ideas of how humans will continue to enhance themselves and their environment with technology are still valid.

Kurzweil does an excellent job of explaining the factual science and reasoning behind his seemingly far-fetched predictions about the future. He uses many examples from the history of computing, as well as current research in the relevant scientific fields, to chart a path to his vision of the future.

There were certain sections of the book that I found very interesting, and read thoroughly, while there were other sections where I found myself skimming long pages of boring data and logical arguments. I would have preferred an abridged version that presented his predictions and reasoning more succinctly.

Here are just a few of the interesting ideas discussed in this book:
Reverse-engineering the human brain until we can replicate all its advantages in computers.
Scanning the contents (skills, memories, personality, etc.) of a person's brain and uploading them to virtual reality to create an immortal virtual person.
Slowing and eventually preventing aging and death with biotech.
Nanotechnology and how we'll use it in our bodies and the environment.
Enhancing the human body to create The Human Body 2.0 and 3.0.
Replacing our organs with nanobots.
Virtual reality.
Future warfare: cyberwarfare and nanotech warfare.
Faster-than-light (superlight) communication and travel.
Harnessing the matter and energy around us (Earth, other objects in the solar system) for computing.
Computer consciousness and true artificial intelligence.(less)

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Apr 15, 2011 Ken Badertscher rated it 2 of 5 stars · review of another edition

Shelves: 2011

The Singularity Is Near by Ray Kurzweil: dislike it (2/5)

Too optimistic, too wacky, too wrong.

The full title of this book is “The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,” and like its title, the book is verbose and very, very speculative. I know, I know. What should I expect from futurist Ray Kurzweil other than futuristic foo from the future? How about a book with a coherent structure? How about a book that doesn’t repeat its fundamental premises multiple times in each chapter? Mayb...more The Singularity Is Near by Ray Kurzweil: dislike it (2/5)

Too optimistic, too wacky, too wrong.

The full title of this book is “The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,” and like its title, the book is verbose and very, very speculative. I know, I know. What should I expect from futurist Ray Kurzweil other than futuristic foo from the future? How about a book with a coherent structure? How about a book that doesn’t repeat its fundamental premises multiple times in each chapter? Maybe a book that leaves out a few unsupported theoretical assumptions stated as foregone conclusions? Singularity has a few fascinating passages, some really interesting ideas, and a collection of delightfully eclectic quotes. Sadly, all the good stuff is surrounded by a repetitious screed with nearly as much substance in the footnotes as in the text.

Kurzweil starts off on the wrong foot with some wrong predictions for technological advances to appear “by the end of the decade.” Given that the book was published in 2005, and as I write this it is 2011, we should be able to fact-check some of these predictions. “We will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence with supercomputers…” Nope. “Computers… will become essentially invisible: woven into our clothing, embedded in our furniture and environment…” Nuh uh. Yes, lots of smart devices exist now, but wearable computing turned into the smartphone, and pervasive computing isn’t all that pervasive. There’s also a claim that the Web will become the “worldwide mesh… once all of its linked devices become communicating web servers….” The only real approximation of this is botnets, created with malware and harnessed by malcontents. While a few impressive networked computing projects currently exist, most folks still don’t give up their CPU’s background cycles to anything productive.

After a rocky start predicting the near future, how are we expected to follow along as Kurzweil turns us into mind linked cyborgs with nanobot blood who can merge and reform our identities at will? One example: virtual reality. Over and over again we are reminded that we will soon be using fully immersive virtual reality. “By early in the 2nd decade of this century” we will have fully immersive 3D environments beamed into our eyeballs, and shortly thereafter we will be plugged in using devices that directly stimulate our sense centers in the brain. But who is going to build these environments? Are we doomed to socialize using virtual meeting places as bizarre as Second Life, furries and ambulatory vegetation and penises everywhere you look, only with more fidelity than we can currently imagine and plugged in to our brains? Who wants that?

There’s a lot more way-out-there stuff I could bring up from the book, but that’s really not its worst failing. The thing that bothered me most about it was the repetition. It’s almost as though Kurzweil at some point abandoned a reasoned thesis for truth by repetition. He goes on and on again and again about how we will know the brain’s inmost secrets, and how nanobots will solve ecological problems, and how superintelligent sentient machines will treat us wetware humans with respect and care. It’s all very Pollyanna, and in some cases more than a little disturbing. Kurzweil’s vision of the ultimate goal of humanity is a nanobot swarm with superintelligent AI flying at near the speed of light and colonizing wherever it lands without regard for existing life of any kind. If that’s my future, I want out.(less)

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Feb 05, 2009 Bookmarks Magazine added it · review of another edition

Kurzweil is one of the world's most respected thinkers and entrepreneurs. Yet the thesis he posits in Singularity is so singular that many readers will be astounded__and perhaps skeptical. Think Blade Runner or Being John Malkovich magnified trillion-fold. Even if one were to embrace his techno-optimism, which he backs up with fascinating details, Kurzweil leaves some important questions relating to politics, economics, and morality unanswered. If machines in our bodies can rebuild cells, for ex

...more

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Nov 27, 2012 Tero Luikku rated it 4 of 5 stars

Ray Kurzweil I feel is THE authority when it comes to optimistic transhumanism. With decades of research and analytics on the subject under his belt, there isn't a topic on transhumanism he couldn't write of. That is what makes his books so enticing to read. When I'm reading his book and happen to wonder about anything related, I'm certain to find it in the table of contents as a header.

Certain chapters seemed to drag on a bit with heavy use of flowcharts and pattern recognition within trends of...more

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Mar 26, 2011 Nick Vandermolen rated it 3 of 5 stars

I'm mostly interested in the spiritual aspect that this book supposes. If you took out your arm and put a robot arm on, then you took your leg off and put a robot leg on, then you took your eye our and put a robot eye on until all organics are gone...are you even human, but more importantly where did you soul go. This argument brings the human down to truly no different then a machine completely lessening the value of the human. Yet, he wants to live forever. Kurzweil thinks that he can live for...more

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Nov 30, 2011 Mark added it

Shelves: science

Here's a big disappointment disguised as a gaily painted-cake... Call me a "fundamentalist Humanist" if you like (yes, Do!) but, Kurzweil's faith in machinery to save us from our wizened fate really bugs me. He doesn't look at the evils science and technology has brought us, such as bioterror, nuclear war, and the surveillance state, with anything akin to a look backward in reflection. Machines are good. They will ultimately surpass us, and we shall build our bodies of nano-organs to replace thi...more

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Nov 29, 2012 John Wenning rated it 3 of 5 stars

There's no question Ray Kurzweil is wicked smart and accomplished and I'm fascinated by upcoming technologies and technology in general but this book is way over the top. The religious overtones to the "Singularity" and the fixation/obsession with "radical life extension" is what turned me off the most and more specifically, extrapolating growth in life expediency as if its analogous to Moore's law. Kurzweil sites many statistics but these stats are very disingenuous in that increase in life exp...more

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Sep 12, 2011 Paul rated it 5 of 5 stars

This is an exceptional, if somewhat optimistic, extrapolation of current technological trends in computation (artificial intelligence), nanotechnology, and genetics. Kurzweil succeeds in persuading open minded readers that we live on the cusp of a singular revolution in technology, in which the pace of technological change will appear to accelerate to rates of change well beyond our own past experience. The emergence of the so-called "singularity," if it occurs, will undoubtedly challenge the ve...more

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Apr 03, 2009 Noah M. rated it 5 of 5 stars

Ray Kurzweil suggests that exponential trends in information technology will usher in world changing revolutions in Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics. By the year 2040 there will be little left of our biological intelligence. Eventually, once we have harnessed the maximum computational capacity of matter, we will expand out from our solar system. He believes that there will be a way to circumvent the speed of light, so pretty soon we're going to be a universe spanning intelligence.

So we will...more Ray Kurzweil suggests that exponential trends in information technology will usher in world changing revolutions in Genetics, Nanotechnology and Robotics. By the year 2040 there will be little left of our biological intelligence. Eventually, once we have harnessed the maximum computational capacity of matter, we will expand out from our solar system. He believes that there will be a way to circumvent the speed of light, so pretty soon we're going to be a universe spanning intelligence.

So we will be god. And then perhaps we will create a new universe, to run a new program. And the cycle starts again, I suppose.

If you haven't read enough science fiction, this all sounds completely insane. However, having examined his arguments, and having a general sense of the sort of progress being made in Genetics, Nanotech and Robotics, I feel that his prognostications are, on the whole, accurate.

I see no reason why aging can't be conquered before the year 2020. Assuming trends in miniaturization continue, I don't see any reason why we won't have mastered nanotechnology by the end of the 2020's. I find myself less willing to accept that human level artificial intelligence will arrive in the 2030's, but I do consider it an inevitability. So, since we conquered aging in second decade of this century, we'll get there eventually.

I mostly accept Kurzweil's analysis of the trajectory of technological progress. To be fair, his book is sometimes a bit light on evidence to back up some of his claims. There are a few examples for each topic, and he tends to use them over and over again.

However, all his ideas are firmly grounded in reality. On a long enough time-line, there is no reason why nearly everything described in this book cannot be accomplished by humanity. Whether you accept the time frame that he endorses is up to you, but you have to acknowledge that he is writing a book about the likely shape of the future, be it near or far.

Additionally, I would add that my acceptance of Kurzweil's thesis can probably be attributed to several factors:

1) The internet rising to prominence during my formative years has given me a very real sense of the world changing possibilities of technology.

2) I've read a shit-ton of science fiction, and I've certainly read about futures more bizarre than what he describes.

3) It provides me with some measure of hope for the future. If the world isn't going to drastically change in the next forty years then we, as a species, as well and truly fucked. No one has any interest in solving the problems of the future. They'd rather fuck things up now, and let future generations deal with the fallout. Only a general acceptance of accelerating change will force people to consider the future consequences of decisions we make now.

4) I want to be able to morph my genitals at will and have crazy zero-gravity sex in virtual reality. IS THAT SO WRONG????(less)

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Apr 15, 2011 Tracy Black rated it 1 of 5 stars

Shelves: didn-t-finish

First I have to admit that I only made it to page 50. If Krurzweil redeems himself later in the book, I guess I'll never know. I was expexting more because so many very intelligent people I know have read it and loved it. He seemed to be cherry picking history to fit his ideas, that technology is advancing exponentialy and has been doing so since the dawn of civilization. I don't agree with this. I know that it is advancing rapidly right now, but it has also done so at other times in the past an...more

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About Ray Kurzweil

Raymond Kurzweil is an inventor and futurist who has published books on health, artificial intelligence, transhumanism, and the technological singularity.

More about Ray Kurzweil...

Books by Ray Kurzweil

The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence

How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed

Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever

Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever

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“Fredkin [...] praat over een interessant kenmerk van computerprogramma's, waaronder cellulaire automaten: er is geen kortere route mogelijk naar wat de uitkomst wordt. Dit is het wezenlijke verschil tussen de 'analytische' benadering van de traditionele wiskunde, inclusief differentiële vergelijkingen, en de 'computer'-benadering met algoritmes. Je kunt een toekomstige toestand van een systeem voorspellen zonder alle tussenstappen te kennen als je de analytische methode gebruikt. Maar bij cellulaire automaten moet je alle tussenstappen doorrekenen om te weten hoe de uitkomst zal zijn: je kunt de toekomst niet voorspellen, behalve door de toekomst af te wachten. [...] Fredkin legt uit: 'je kunt het antwoord op een vraag niet sneller kennen dan wanneer je volgt wat er gebeurt.' [...] Fredkin gelooft dat het universum letterlijk een computer is en dat het gebruikt wordt door iets of iemand om een probleem op te lossen. Het klinkt als een grap met goed en slecht nieuws: het goede nieuws is dat onze levens een doel hebben; het slechte nieuws is dat onze levens het doel zijn van een of andere hacker ver weg die pi wil uitrekenen met een oneindig groot getal achter de komma.” — 1 person liked it

“Hoewel we de illusie hebben dat we beelden met hoge resolutie ontvangen van onze ogen, stuurt de oogzenuw slechts contouren en aanwijzingen over interessante punten in ons blikveld naar het brein. We 'hallucineren' eigenlijk de wereld vanuit ons corticale geheugen.” — 1 person liked it

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