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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast For The 21st Century

3.65  ·  Rating Details  ·  5,427 Ratings  ·  703 Reviews
George Friedman turns his eye on the future - offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the 21st century.
Paperback, 351 pages
Published January 1st 2010 by Allison & Busby (first published July 31st 2008)
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(showing 1-30 of 3,000)
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Michael Herrman
I was suspicious of Friedman’s argument for being able to foresee the future because it essentially boiled down to “highly competent people have very few options to choose from”. That is to say that the more competent they are, the narrower their potential band of action and the easier to guess at what they’ll do.

To make his point, he invoked chess on the grandmaster level: a world-class player has few winning moves open to him, but many losing ones, and his logic is that the grandmaster will se
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Heidi
Aug 27, 2009 Heidi rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: non-fiction, read2009
I chose to read this book because someone asked people's opinion on an email list. I couldn't buy into it enough to finish it.

First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman's analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.

Well I don't buy it. Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to 'prove' his geopolitical forecast. I kept thinking of other events he ignored. I
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Dan Solomon
I made it through the first seven chapters in, like, four enthusiastic hours. He talks some convincing shit about history and what we can extrapolate from history in order to better understand what the future might hold. It's insightful and readable and very smart.

The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it. I couldn't figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up.

The reason the first sev
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David
Hmmm...this is a difficult book to write about for a number of reasons. Let's take a Proustian moment and beat it to death with words.

The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years. This is the problem with futurism in general. Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasy...a brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs. proves this point. Though these get a few things right most of what they have
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Mohamed Al Marzooqi
Jan 20, 2014 Mohamed Al Marzooqi rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: سياسة
يعترف جورج فريدمان بكل صراحة في مقدمة الكتاب بأنه لا يمتلك بلورة سحرية يستطيع من خلالها التنبؤ بأحداث المستقبل، ولكن ما يقوم به -بكل بساطة- هو الإعتماد على التاريخ للتنبؤ بالمستقبل، وهو يقوم بذلك بطريقة إحترافية ومقنعة معتمدًا على خبرته الطويلة في تدريس النظريات السياسية وفي تقديم الاستشارات للقوات المسلّحة الأميركية حول مسائل الأمن القومي.

يرصد فريدمان في كتابه هذا أهم التغيرات التى ستطرأ على العالم في القرن الحادى والعشرين من نزاعات جيوسياسية وتكنولوجية وديموجرافية وعسكرية، كما يسرد بالتفصيل أه
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Mike
Jun 07, 2012 Mike rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
More like a long New Yorker article than an actual book - by which I mean it's at points breezy, totally accessible, and engaging - the book by Friedman is something of a wonder. As a lover of Sci-Fi and Speculative Fiction I thought I'd find out what someone who gets paid for a living to think about the future thought would happen in the next 100 years. Keep in mind Friedman's entire focus is geo-political but in order to make that work he does have some interesting insights into the future of ...more
Joseph
Spoilers and whatnot below








A good history to start with and Friedman very much sticks to the belief that history will repeat itself with Poland as the new Germany in Europe trapped between Germany and Russia, two historic enemies. The US will treat it as it did West Germany. Turkey will rise as a Muslim power in the world. Poland is a bit of a stretch I feel. I would not have made Turkey a first choice, but Friedman backs up his argument pretty well, although he tends to forget that Turkey is ve
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Ellis
Sep 09, 2010 Ellis rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: nonfiction, politics
This book bases projections on so many layers of assumptions that all depend on each other being true that it's discussion of power and national relationships are probably as likely to come to pass as me lassoing the Easter Bunny and eating him/her for Easter dinner. Aside from the silliness of the arguments in this book, any new occurrence can completely destroy all of Friedman's projections. For example, how will the recent discovery of vast mineral resources in Afghanistan affect its future s ...more
Daniel Clausen
Aug 23, 2014 Daniel Clausen rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
In a sense, I’m divided: Do I give this book four stars or five stars?

Ironically, the things I like most about this book make me want to rate it a four. I love the book because it’s highly engaging, easy to read, and at times refuses to take itself (and the art of forecasting) too seriously.

I also love the book because it’s irreverent. Friedman’s “geopolitics” – as a kind of Greek or Shakespearean tragedy where the actors are not in control of themselves and even smart characters cannot help su
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Stig
Apr 19, 2011 Stig rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
An exciting book that almost reads like an alternate world science fiction novel. Friedman's main argument is that the United States will remain the most powerful nation in the world also in the 21st century. Current rivals like Russia and China will be swept away, and quite soon too, only to be replaced by new challengers such as Japan, Turkey and (later) Mexico.

So, how likely is this? Friedman admits that he will get details wrong, but believes that the overall direction of 21st century histor
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أشرف فقيه
بغض النظر عن دقة تصوراته للمستقبل، إلا أن هذا الكتاب مهم جداً في شرحه للقواعد العامة التي تفسر التاريخ وتلك التي تحكم صعود الدول وسقوطها.. من ذلك:
1- إن الجغرافيا التاريخية هي أهم عناصر القوة الدولية
2- من يسيطر على البحار يسيطر على طرق التجارة ويسيطر على العالم
3- فترة 20 سنة أكثر من كافية لحدوث تغييرات جذرية في موازين القوى العالمية
4- الصراع على الطاقة سيستمر لكن ليس في صورة نفط بل ستلعب الكهرباء والطاقة الشمسية أدواراً محورية وسيكون للقوى المسيطرة على الفضاء بالذات قصب السبق في ذلك

النصف الأول من
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Janusz Dragunow
Oct 24, 2014 Janusz Dragunow rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
My short review is - do not buy this book. This is one of the worst books which I read recently. It is not worth any penny. Instead, I recommend to read "race against machine", writen by MIT' tutors. Until I saw a map of Europe divided on regions, I was expecting something at least with average quality. No one who puts Denmark, Italy and Germany in one "Central European" basket deserves for higher grade than 2/5. Spain and United Kingdom as one group of countries? Come on. This kind of books you ...more
Ryan Holiday
Books aimed at predicting the future are always dangerous and often reek of charlatanism. Books on politics and war are regularly partisan and emotional. It's impressive that The Next 100 years, a book that attempts to predict the future of both international politics and war in the coming century falls prey to none of those traps. Friedman is calm, dispassionate and articulate at each turn.

His predictions are surprising in that they contradict almost everything the average person would trend ou
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Diane
Jan 09, 2011 Diane rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
This book is based on an intriguing idea, that it is possible to predict the future based on geopolitical interests. The author explains changes in 20-year cycles in the past, and then proceeds to predict the next century. The book's greatest virtue is that it looks critically at a number of commonly-held beliefs about the future (particularly in regard to China's future power). The author does a good job of explaining why events generally do not always continue along a smooth path, and hence wh ...more
Nick
Nov 01, 2010 Nick rated it it was ok  ·  review of another edition
This book started out great and then became completely tedious and absurd.
Friedman did a great job of laying out his vision for the next 30 years or so. He describes the economic, political, social and demographic forces that are shaping the world. That part was well worth reading and seemed fairly plausible.
The second half of the book reads like someone explaining "an awesome game of Risk" they played in excruciating detail. The circumstances leading up to this World War Three are also absurd,
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Chris Dietzel
Oct 22, 2015 Chris Dietzel rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Incredibly fascinating yet disturbing. Friedman relies on the very true saying that "history repeats itself," then sets about identifying the economic and social trends that could lead him to predict future events for the next 100 years. Such predictions include the causes behind WWIII, which countries will be involved, etc. This is the fascinating part of the book. Friedman admits many of his predictions could be wrong, yet has a sound basis for all of the things he writes about. The disturbing ...more
Jonathan Sargent
RANT FILLED REVIEW BELOW

George Friedman's The Next 100 Years first few chapters show some promise, but was troubling from the get go. This is most likely because I'm just coming off reading Samuel Huntington's incredible Clash of Civilizations so bear with me.

Friedman, for all his intelligence and geopolitical "expertise" fails to use a SINGLE SOURCE IN THE ENTIRE BOOK. Someone will pick this book up in a 100 years and die laughing at the complete lack of a single citation. If you're going to us
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Kira Simion
Nov 08, 2015 Kira Simion rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
His theories for "success" and "stability" were very intriguing and I liked his notion of 'terrorism.'

You can't say "let's have a war on terrorism" or whatnot because you can't attack a thing. I liked his insight into why we should [spoilers removed] have treaties and that the US of A (lol) should notice that they are becoming what (many) people hate: a very high power, also known as a monarchy. The USA is something that does not have someone else who can "check" it and balance out its power
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John
Apr 25, 2015 John rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: futurology
This book is shockingly convincing. My instincts about Chinese history and my innate American apocalyptic feelings make me want to reject his ideas outright but again, the author is very persuasive with his logic and the fact that he wrote in 2009 and outlines very clearly the Ukrainian conflict that is currently happening. Like the robots that ate coming in 2030 to fix our labor crisis, Friedman's logic is undeniable. Again, I'm not fully convinced, but I'm going to keep this book close to watc ...more
Steve Scott
Jun 15, 2014 Steve Scott rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: fiction, politics
This book started out pretty well, with an insightful history and geopolitical analysis of the United States and the countries with which it competes. I thought some of Friedman's short term predictions surprisingly accurate, given that he foresaw Vladimir Putin's aggression in Eastern Europe well before it occurred.

Then he loses it…and me.

Friedman takes his predictions into the year 2050, and starts writing pure fiction. He isn't speculating so much as being creative. He glues together scenario
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Book
Aug 29, 2012 Book rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman

"The Next 100 Years" is an interesting look at what the twenty-first century will look and feel like based on geopolitics. It's a book that speculates the future by using history, trends and by applying the decline and fall of Europe as the centerpiece and its replacement the United States as its model. The author focuses on who would resist and how the United States would respond to their resistance as the driving forces behi
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Lauren
May 24, 2013 Lauren rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: publicpolicy
At a certain level, when it comes to the future, the only thing one can be sure of is that common sense will be wrong. - George Friedman

PURPOSE OF THE BOOK
Author George Friedman states, "underneath the disorder of history, my task is to try to see the order-and to anticipate what events, trends, and technology that order will bring forth." He states his primary goal as transmitting a sense of the new century by identifying "the major tendencies - geopolitical, technological, demographic, cultur
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Leajk
Apr 06, 2015 Leajk rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
Since I'm interested in forecasting, especially demographic forecasting, I was excited to see that there was a chapter on population and thus bought the book. As other reviewers have already pointed out the book is overall unfocused. The chapter entitled "The US - Jihadist war" focuses a lot on the US naval power, indeed Friedman is practically obsessed by it. Sure it was an interesting perspective for me as a non-American citizen to consider, but it really had quite little to do with the Jihadi ...more
Vicki
Jul 26, 2009 Vicki rated it liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: audible
This was an interesting book in which the author attempts to predict what will happen in the world over the next 100 years. I wish I could give it 3.5 stars instead of 3.0 or 4.0, as I really was somewhere in between those ratings on this one.

Some of the predictions left me bummed out, particularly the one that space will inevitably be militarized. The author argues that the control of space will be just as crucial to being on top of the hierarchy as controlling the seas is now. It does make so
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Ed
Feb 20, 2010 Ed rated it liked it  ·  review of another edition
This book forms a useful balance to Martin Jacques book When China Rules the World. The best way to approach the future is via the Peter Schwartz (The Art of the Long View) strategy of developing 3-4 alternative scenarios about the future in order to 'learn from the future' about the present: both what it tells you about future trends and how to influence them. Jacques and Friedman provide two such scenarios, though I would like someone to add a scenario around environmental issues that neither ...more
Sarah
Jun 27, 2013 Sarah rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: of-substance
What an absolutely fascinating read. Well written and thought provoking it is a very engaging book. The way Friedman writes this book its almost as if he is simply talking to his reader. I really enjoyed this style of writing because it made it much easier to follow and understand. But as with all things that try to predict the future it must be read with a grain of salt. Having absolutely no background with regards to geopolitics this book was remarkably easy to understand. I defiantly learned ...more
Noah
Apr 02, 2009 Noah rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
Friedman makes some solid, if well-worn, points about the driving forces behind political and military power. Among other things, he makes a good case for why naval power and passable terrain are still so important in the digital age. I probably would have a favorable review of this book if it were just his predictions for 2009-2025, but after that is where he really loses it. Before you know it, he's raving like a madman about Battle Star satellites in geosynchronous orbit and secret Japanese l ...more
Luis Orozco
Nov 03, 2014 Luis Orozco rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
I expected to hate this book. Interestingly, I didn't. The author's lines of reasoning are surprisingly solid, and especially the US-Mexico conflict of the 2080s sounded very plausible (probably giving border Republicans sleepless nights).

Overall an interesting read if only for its explanations of geopolitical processes. A great companion to playing Civilization ;-)
Aksel Sterri
Jul 07, 2016 Aksel Sterri rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Mest sannsynlig bare tull. Men Friedman, med sitt geopolitiske syn på verden, kommer med mange interessante og sprø prediksjoner. Verdt å lese, om ikke for annet enn underholdningen og for å frigjøre tanken om at ting alltid vil være som de er, eller at framtida forstås best ved å ekstrapolere de siste 10-20 år framover i tid.
Alain Burrese
Jul 10, 2014 Alain Burrese rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
I found “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast For The 21st Century” by George Friedman to be a very interesting read. I have no idea how accurate Friedman's forecasting and predictions will be, but I still found what he wrote about to be extremely interesting and thought provoking.

The forecasting is backed up by historical events and how people and countries react to various circumstances. While it might not turn out to be accurate, it is certainly plausible. The core of the 21st Century, according t
...more
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Dr. Friedman is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR. Since 1996 Dr. Friedman has driven the strategic vision guiding STRATFOR to global prominence in private geopolitical intelligence and forecasting.

Dr. Friedman is the author of The New York Times bestseller “The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been…and Where We’re Going,” which forecasts the major events and challenges that will test Am
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“Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.” 10 likes
“The computer focuses ruthlessly on things that can be represented in numbers. In so doing, it seduces people into thinking that other aspects of knowledge are either unreal or unimportant. The computer treats reason as an instrument for achieving things, not for contemplating things. It narrows dramatically what we know and intended by reason.” 6 likes
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