The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
A fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists.
In his thought-provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR—the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm—focuses on what he knows best, the future. Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers...more
In his thought-provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR—the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm—focuses on what he knows best, the future. Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers...more
Analog Audio Cassette, 7 pages
Published
January 27th 2009
by Blackstone Audiobooks
(first published 2008)
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Though this book has taken much flak from readers (and will no doubt get a lot wrong as the decades roll forward), I thought the first half was smartly argued. Friedman attempts to forecast the next century through his "history as a chess game" theory, which postulates that in global politics, as in chess, there may seem to be a limitless number of potential moves, but, in actuality, only a few are feasible at a given time. Thus, leaders are heavily constrained in their options by geop...more
My friend pointed out that I added this review to the wrong book! Same title, different author...so here's the REAL book I mean to review!!!
This was a fascinating exploration of predictions of America over the next hundred years. I don't agree with many of his predictions, but it was a fascinating thought experiment. He is very logical in his arguing, and I really enjoyed hearing his point of view.
The most engaging part of this book is that Weiner's theories directly...more
This was a fascinating exploration of predictions of America over the next hundred years. I don't agree with many of his predictions, but it was a fascinating thought experiment. He is very logical in his arguing, and I really enjoyed hearing his point of view.
The most engaging part of this book is that Weiner's theories directly...more
An exciting book that almost reads like an alternate world science fiction novel. Friedman's main argument is that the United States will remain the most powerful nation in the world also in the 21st century. Current rivals like Russia and China will be swept away, and quite soon too, only to be replaced by new challengers such as Japan, Turkey and (later) Mexico.
So, how likely is this? Friedman admits that he will get details wrong, but believes that the overall direction of 21st ce...more
So, how likely is this? Friedman admits that he will get details wrong, but believes that the overall direction of 21st ce...more
This book is based on an intriguing idea, that it is possible to predict the future based on geopolitical interests. The author explains changes in 20-year cycles in the past, and then proceeds to predict the next century. The book's greatest virtue is that it looks critically at a number of commonly-held beliefs about the future (particularly in regard to China's future power). The author does a good job of explaining why events generally do not always continue along a smooth path, and hence...more
Hmmm...this is a difficult book to write about for a number of reasons. Let's take a Proustian moment and beat it to death with words.
The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years. This is the problem with futurism in general. Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasy...a brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs. proves this point. Though these get a few things right most of what ...more
The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years. This is the problem with futurism in general. Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasy...a brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs. proves this point. Though these get a few things right most of what ...more
This book was a very interesting look at what the future could be. While depressing in that the author forecasts another world war, it is hard to believe that the author could be accurate that far into the future. It's funny though. I have begun to look at the news differently looking for possible references to Mr. Friedman's predictions of which there have been a couple which makes this book fun and thought provoking.
The first few chapters were very interesting as the author built ...more
The first few chapters were very interesting as the author built ...more
I made it through the first seven chapters in, like, four enthusiastic hours. He talks some convincing shit about history and what we can extrapolate from history in order to better understand what the future might hold. It's insightful and readable and very smart.
The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it. I couldn't figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up.
The ...more
The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it. I couldn't figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up.
The ...more
Honestly this book was more amusing science fiction than anything that felt like a real analysis of future events. The author obsessed over how vital it was to control the sea lanes, and then immediately predicts a variety of wars based on control of space showing how, in a world where space based operations are possible, control of the sea is meaningless. He then however immediately switches his predictions back to control of the seas ignoring his prediction for an even greater militarization o...more
This book forms a useful balance to Martin Jacques book When China Rules the World. The best way to approach the future is via the Peter Schwartz (The Art of the Long View) strategy of developing 3-4 alternative scenarios about the future in order to 'learn from the future' about the present: both what it tells you about future trends and how to influence them. Jacques and Friedman provide two such scenarios, though I would like someone to add a scenario around environmental issues that neither ...more
George Friedman is the chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies. Friedman offers a global tour of war and peace in the upcoming century. Friedman opens by taking the reader through the twentieth century at twenty-year intervals, showing how the concerns in any given time period are quickly forgotten and replaced by new concerns. This prepares the read...more
I chose to read this book because someone asked people's opinion on an email list. I couldn't buy into it enough to finish it.
First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman's analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.
Well I don't buy it. Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to 'prove' his geopolitical forecast. I kept thinking of othe...more
First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman's analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.
Well I don't buy it. Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to 'prove' his geopolitical forecast. I kept thinking of othe...more
This was an interesting book in which the author attempts to predict what will happen in the world over the next 100 years. I wish I could give it 3.5 stars instead of 3.0 or 4.0, as I really was somewhere in between those ratings on this one.
Some of the predictions left me bummed out, particularly the one that space will inevitably be militarized. The author argues that the control of space will be just as crucial to being on top of the hierarchy as controlling the seas is now. I...more
Some of the predictions left me bummed out, particularly the one that space will inevitably be militarized. The author argues that the control of space will be just as crucial to being on top of the hierarchy as controlling the seas is now. I...more
I enjoyed this book as a flight of fantasy and I found myself agreeing with some of the predictions made by Mr. Friedman. I also found myself laughing out loud at some of the predictions too.
I can't figure out the purpose of this book in the first place, but if you go along with the premise that geopolitical processes (often) follow historical patterns then it's worth a read just to get a glimpse into Mr. Friedman's view of History. Over-simplistic in areas, and simply wrong in other...more
I can't figure out the purpose of this book in the first place, but if you go along with the premise that geopolitical processes (often) follow historical patterns then it's worth a read just to get a glimpse into Mr. Friedman's view of History. Over-simplistic in areas, and simply wrong in other...more
The Next 100 Years Review
The Next 100 Years by George Freidman was certainly a very interesting book. The title hits it on the nose; it was simply the next 100 years in our world from the eyes of Friedman. You might say-as did I-as you pick up this book that one man foreboding the 100 years isn’t valid and even quite insane. However, look at Freidman’s credentials as a geopolitical land founder of Stratfor. Then, read the author’s note as he tells the reader his intensions of...more
The Next 100 Years by George Freidman was certainly a very interesting book. The title hits it on the nose; it was simply the next 100 years in our world from the eyes of Friedman. You might say-as did I-as you pick up this book that one man foreboding the 100 years isn’t valid and even quite insane. However, look at Freidman’s credentials as a geopolitical land founder of Stratfor. Then, read the author’s note as he tells the reader his intensions of...more
Spoilers and whatnot below
A good history to start with and Friedman very much sticks to the belief that history will repeat itself with Poland as the new Germany in Europe trapped between Germany and Russia, two historic enemies. The US will treat it as it did West Germany. Turkey will rise as a Muslim power in the world. Poland is a bit of a stretch I feel. I would not have made Turkey a first choice, but Friedman backs up his argument ...more
A good history to start with and Friedman very much sticks to the belief that history will repeat itself with Poland as the new Germany in Europe trapped between Germany and Russia, two historic enemies. The US will treat it as it did West Germany. Turkey will rise as a Muslim power in the world. Poland is a bit of a stretch I feel. I would not have made Turkey a first choice, but Friedman backs up his argument ...more
There are huge sections of this book that I'd give 1star, but I approve of the general project as most people miss the main point that history changes fast and in ways that will go against the conventional wisdom. Most people project the present indefinitely into the future, and it is indeed important to continually challenge that mistake. Mr. Friedman is just way too specific.
If one simply picks out the main geopolitical and social forces that Mr. Friedman is working with, there is...more
If one simply picks out the main geopolitical and social forces that Mr. Friedman is working with, there is...more
Although the topic is about geopolitics (really not my fave subject) but i honestly love reading this book. I appreciate Friedman's effort to make a prediction on what's going to happen in the next 100 years. Bet that's not an easy thing to do.
His view of the world in the next 90 years (since now we're already in the year 2011) was quite different from most geo-strategic experts/authors. For example, when most ppl predicted China as the new superpower, but Friedman predicted that Jap...more
His view of the world in the next 90 years (since now we're already in the year 2011) was quite different from most geo-strategic experts/authors. For example, when most ppl predicted China as the new superpower, but Friedman predicted that Jap...more
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Lisa
rated it
·
review of another edition
Recommends it for:
Those interested in geopolitics and history...and the future state of the world.
Recommended to Lisa by:
Darrell
Shelves:
non-fiction
This intriguing book opened my eyes in several ways. The most basic definition of the book is that it is a forecast of how the world of people and politics will evolve in the twenty-first century. Who will vie for world power, and why. While he knows he has no crystal ball, the author is adept at analyzing past history (and explaining it!) and seeing patterns that replay at dependable intervals. This coupled with cultural and technological foresight leads to some interesting predictions. It...more
While it becomes increasingly speculative about 30 years out (naturally), this book accurately pinpoints many of the geopolitical trends of the near future. I think the author is correct about the coming flame-out of China, the increasing irrelevance of Western Europe (back to the world backwater it was 600 years ago), the rise of Turkey, the Russians attempting to reassert themselves in their historic sphere of influence, the end of mass warfare, the possibility of Mexican border strife, and t...more
This book started out great and then became completely tedious and absurd.
Friedman did a great job of laying out his vision for the next 30 years or so. He describes the economic, political, social and demographic forces that are shaping the world. That part was well worth reading and seemed fairly plausible.
The second half of the book reads like someone explaining "an awesome game of Risk" they played in excruciating detail. The circumstances leading up to this World War Thr...more
Friedman did a great job of laying out his vision for the next 30 years or so. He describes the economic, political, social and demographic forces that are shaping the world. That part was well worth reading and seemed fairly plausible.
The second half of the book reads like someone explaining "an awesome game of Risk" they played in excruciating detail. The circumstances leading up to this World War Thr...more
Great read if you like futuristic discussions. Most of the conclusions are 180 degrees from today's conventional wisdom. I found it exciting and thought provoking providing a launching pad for my own imagination about what might be rather than what the talking head say IS. Read it.
Ehh, this book probably rates around 2.5-3 stars... The timing on it's publication didn't fit very well with the current economic meltdown and subsequently it hurts the credibility of some of the more complex ideas he is pushing. Friedman presents some excellent points and raises questions about how the reader and society not only perceive the future but also the past and cyclic nature of geopolitics. I enjoyed most of the concepts presented but was probably to hung up on the missed financial ...more
An america-centric forecast of the world in the 21st century - makes for an almost convincing read as George Friedman supports his argument with various facts from the past few centuries. My main issue with the book is that the author failed to recognise or belittled the fact that the modern day warfare is no longer built on the strength of its naval presence unlike the previous century - he did not acknowledge that america, far from continuing to be a superpower of the 21st century, can be wea...more
First thought. This is stupid. Why even try to predict anything how the next the 100 years will play out?
But it got me thinking .... the author thinks in terms of historical cultural interactions and demographics. The beginning was fascinating with predictions of Poland, Turkey, and Japan become major world players and how the USA is still on its ascent of being THE major world power. He also offered a plausible reason that China will fail to overtake the USA.
I a...more
I could not imagine enjoying a book about future geopolitics but could not put this book down. You can agree with the idea that the next 100 years are going to be US-centred or not. The author proclaims that we can compare North America to an adolescent and there is a long way for this country to grow and to come into the full power. The next 100 years are going to change the balance of power in every region of the world. There is a much unexpected idea in the book of China losing its momentum a...more
Very cool idea: a former political science professor and current intelligence officer forcasts what the world's conflicts will entail in the next century. By his own admission, some of the ideas are farfetched and will probably not actually happen, but many of the specifics of who will rise and fall in power are probable. The most surprising thing about this book is how much it contradicts conventional wisdowm--that the US is past its prime and that the future belongs to China. Friedman argues t...more
I have mixed feelings about this book. It is exactly what the title claims it to be: a forecast of the 21st century - based on the patterns and progressions in geopolitics. I find the concept of geopolitical forecasting fascinating, and this is no exception. The book is very well thought out and logical and easy to understand. Friedman doesn't make any vast leaps in theory or anything. I'd say it's a pretty darn good theory on what might happen in the next century. However, it is far from an eng...more
This book bases projections on so many layers of assumptions that all depend on each other being true that it's discussion of power and national relationships are probably as likely to come to pass as me lassoing the Easter Bunny and eating him/her for Easter dinner. Aside from the silliness of the arguments in this book, any new occurrence can completely destroy all of Friedman's projections. For example, how will the recent discovery of vast mineral resources in Afghanistan affect its future...more
The book examines the geopolitical tensions and strategies, then makes broad predictions as to how the the nations will evolve, and finally attempts more specific predicions as to the rising and fall (by their own weight or by the results of regional or a new world war) of specific nations and national blocs. Of course, specifics are conjecture, but the exercise of imagining what may occur can shape what actually does occur. One could look at this as a parallel to science fiction, but in this ca...more
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Dr. Friedman is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR. Since 1996 Dr. Friedman has driven the strategic vision guiding STRATFOR to global prominence in private geopolitical intelligence and forecasting.
Dr. Friedman is the author of The New York Times bestseller “The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been…and Where We’re Going,” which forecasts the major events and challenges that ...more
More about George Friedman...
Dr. Friedman is the author of The New York Times bestseller “The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been…and Where We’re Going,” which forecasts the major events and challenges that ...more
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“The computer focuses ruthlessly on things that can be represented in numbers. In so doing, it seduces people into thinking that other aspects of knowledge are either unreal or unimportant. The computer treats reason as an instrument for achieving things, not for contemplating things. It narrows dramatically what we know and intended by reason.”
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“Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.”
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