Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is...
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Dec 05, 2011
Clay
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Looks at an application of game theory for predicting the future of business and political negotiations. The model relies on political or business experts to identify specific issues, their possible outcomes, and the key players. Players are the people who influence a negotiation or decision. Experts are asked to answer narrow questions about which outcome each player would prefer, how important the issue is to each player, and how much influence each player can exert. The model simulates a num
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Aug 18, 2010
Lindsey
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I like the cover. It's pretty. I know that's not important, and will likely change with future editions of the book, but still... I said it.
This is the second of Bueno De Mesquita's books that I've read. I definitely appreciate that he attempted to make something more approachable to people with little-to-no background in political science (yup, that's me).
But one of his ideas of "approachable" seems to be "witty," which I am of the opinion BDM is not More...
This is the second of Bueno De Mesquita's books that I've read. I definitely appreciate that he attempted to make something more approachable to people with little-to-no background in political science (yup, that's me).
But one of his ideas of "approachable" seems to be "witty," which I am of the opinion BDM is not More...
Aug 14, 2010
Simmoril
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Game theory has always been a fascinating subject for me, and Bueno de Mesquita's book helped introduce to me the ways in which he's taken that idea to the next level. By gathering information from various sources and running carefully modeled computer simulations, Bueno de Mesquita shows that the correct 'move' in a situation is not always the obvious one, and in some cases, the seemingly right move is doomed to failure.
I really enjoyed reading his deep analysis of different situatio More...
I really enjoyed reading his deep analysis of different situatio More...
Feb 12, 2010
Jonny99
rated it:
A mostly fascinating consulting firm commercial. The unusually named Bruce Bueno De Mesquita (does this roughly translate to Bruce The Good Female Mosquito?) is a New York professor, Stanford University fellow and most relevantly runs a consulting firm you can hire to show (or “predictioneer” in consultant-speak) you the future. The peering into the future via the application of higher game theory math, as celebrated in the film “A Beautiful Mind”, is described in the first roughly 60% of the
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Jun 12, 2010
Uwe
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Everyone interested in politics needs to read this book.
Several researches has shown that general population in developed countries do not behave entirely according to the game theory and they also conclude that the more level of country development is the less pure self-interests affect people behavior.
Well, apparently complex selfishness behavior is not a true case at all for large category of people and especially it is not true for politicians and businessmen. You probably always More...
Several researches has shown that general population in developed countries do not behave entirely according to the game theory and they also conclude that the more level of country development is the less pure self-interests affect people behavior.
Well, apparently complex selfishness behavior is not a true case at all for large category of people and especially it is not true for politicians and businessmen. You probably always More...
Feb 04, 2010
Curtis
rated it:
Bueno de Mesquita is a leading game theorist among political scientists and this book attempts to introduce the layman to the logic of self-interested behavior. The beginning of this book is pretty effective. The first few chapters use everyday examples to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Readers are led to believe that they will learn how to apply some concepts from game theory to their own lives. Had the book continued this way, it would have been very good. Unfortunately, the last 2/
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Dec 16, 2009
Jim
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I learned what I already knew from this book-- that individuals and institutions act exclusively in their best interest. But Bueno De Mesquita took me from purely qualitative to a more quantitative, measurable and plannable place.
It's almost painful at first, to have my "selfish sense" awakened to the point where I see otheres brazenly (though mostly unconsciously) flaunting their self-interest. Even more painful is the inevitability of my having to learn more of the tac More...
It's almost painful at first, to have my "selfish sense" awakened to the point where I see otheres brazenly (though mostly unconsciously) flaunting their self-interest. Even more painful is the inevitability of my having to learn more of the tac More...
Jun 06, 2011
Nikzad
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-It could have been shorter.
-An optional in-depth "technical" chapter would have served well, in which the details of the game theory model would be described in more detail.
-Some of the case studies discussed (aimed at validating the model) were actually to obvious. A model wasnt required for them. For example, in the Isreal-Palestine conflict its kind of obvious that the end result of any peace talks would be a position somewhere between what the extreme Palestinians and Is More...
-An optional in-depth "technical" chapter would have served well, in which the details of the game theory model would be described in more detail.
-Some of the case studies discussed (aimed at validating the model) were actually to obvious. A model wasnt required for them. For example, in the Isreal-Palestine conflict its kind of obvious that the end result of any peace talks would be a position somewhere between what the extreme Palestinians and Is More...
Sep 16, 2011
Chris
rated it:
An interesting book. It makes me want to read more about game theory and statistics. This is the first time I've seen a description of game theory applied to real world problems in a rigorous manner. There are a number of political situations in the world that seemed (for me) impossible to understand, solve or make sense of. This book uses game theory to show why some of these situations are stuck the way they are. It explains why some countries and politicians behave the way they do. What ma
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Jul 12, 2011
Andrew
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A few of the chapters lived up to my hopes for the book, but several were disappointing. Using game theory to predict behavior is a fascinating topic, in my opinion. The book had a strong opening as he explained some of the basics of game theory and applied it to some real life situations. He then began to explain how his prediction model worked, but after talking about how he gets information from experts about certain questions, this ends abruptly. I was hoping to learn a little more about his
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May 04, 2010
Richard
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De Mesquita's book is on the whole quite interesting, but ultimately very frustrating as well.
The essential idea is that he has created a computer model that simulates the interactions of multiple agents to predict the likelihood and form of an outcome. The basic form of the simulation is an iterated and evolving game. The inputs to the model are, apparently, purely quantitative representations of various attributes of those agents, including influence, salience and preferred outcome More...
The essential idea is that he has created a computer model that simulates the interactions of multiple agents to predict the likelihood and form of an outcome. The basic form of the simulation is an iterated and evolving game. The inputs to the model are, apparently, purely quantitative representations of various attributes of those agents, including influence, salience and preferred outcome More...
Jan 06, 2011
A.K.
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Nice introduction to game theory and international relations. (Bueno De Mesquita can come across as pompous at times, but it helps if you agree with him.)
Unfortunately, (or perhaps fortunately) this is a very superficial treatment of the subject designed for a general audience. It appears as though his other book, Predicting Politics, provides more insight into the methodology and mathematical models which inform Bueno De Mesquita's predictions.
Unfortunately, (or perhaps fortunately) this is a very superficial treatment of the subject designed for a general audience. It appears as though his other book, Predicting Politics, provides more insight into the methodology and mathematical models which inform Bueno De Mesquita's predictions.
Jul 18, 2010
Thomas
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I recommend this to anyone interested in quantitative decision-making or statistics. Bueno de Mesquita makes a wealth of statistical knowledge accessible, but I never felt like he went deep in describing his model for making decisions - he spent much more time talking about the historical or political environment of each situation. While I enjoyed the book, I hoped to learn more about statistics than politics.
Jul 18, 2010
Nick
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A cool premise, to be sure: can you use game theory to predict social events and even engineer the outcome, based on the very simple concept that "people do what they perceive is in their own best interests all the time". This maxim generally does hold true, the complicated part being in sorting out all the things they're thinking about and how they are perceiving them and the interplay of many people.
Mar 17, 2011
Bill
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An entertaining work that looks at the author's method of predicting and engineering events using game theory. For my tastes, I would have liked to see some math in the book; it's all fine to talk about the equations, but I like to actually see what we're talking about. Still, the book managed to be interesting and engaging.
Nov 19, 2010
Jacob
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A popularized (no equations) book on using game theory to predict networked political problems which often turn out to be resolved or described by a mathematical model of the political actors' self-interest. Worth reading to realize that such models are usually intuitive.
Jan 04, 2010
Jon
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A really remarkable book. The author is the pre-eminent scholar on applying algorithmic techniques to predicting macro scale problems/solutions in economics and politics. It has interesting and wide-scale implications. It shows just how predictable and primitive human incentives are.
May 09, 2010
David
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Truly a fascinating book! De Mesquita has used the game theory of John Nash to develop a series of models that help him to predict future events. The predictions are not simply binary (yes/no) prognostications--they are in-depth analyses that describe what will happen, and why. The author claims a 90% success rate. The last few chapters include a set of detailed predictions made by HIS STUDENTS using his models. Some of the predictions (most notably, Pakistan) are starting to come to pass, now.
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Jan 21, 2012
Thomas
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This book starts out well enough focusing on game theory as it applies to real life situations. However, halfway through the book it seems to become more about the author's accomplishments than the theory itself. I got the feeling that the author feels that he doesn't get enough attention for his ideas. Might have been more interesting if it had been ghostwritten.
Aug 18, 2009
I don't know that I'll ever actually read this, but there was an interesting article about this guy in the NYT about using game theory to predict whether (or when, actually) Iran will build an atomic bomb.
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Jul 05, 2010
Converse
rated it:
Entertaining applications of game theory (w/o much math, mainly computer simulation results) to politics, lawsuits, and buying car. May be worth it for the car buying advice alone.
Oct 11, 2011
Aagave
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It discusses a game theory model without revealing the model. So it's lessons from an obscured model... Which makes the application of the lessons limited in their value.
Jan 12, 2012
Niko05
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Though the subject was fascinating, the author dd a poor job illustrating his points. SO I gave it a weak 3 stars only because it was a tough subject to tackle...
Apr 12, 2011
Fernando
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The topic is extremely interesting, but I was not captivated by the writing style: too dense, too focused on the author's accomplishments as opposed to the subject itself.
Still an interesting read for those interested in conflict resolution and game theory.
Still an interesting read for those interested in conflict resolution and game theory.
Aug 03, 2010
Emma
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Pretty boring. I was excited about a book that sounded like game theory, but this was really disappointing. And tendentious.
Dec 28, 2011
Daniel
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I've enjoyed learning the basics of game theory without the math, but find the book overall somewhat tedious.
Mar 23, 2010
Rob
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Really fantastic book. I am sure that the scope of his methods are polarizing, but I am in.
Dec 07, 2009
All people compete, and all people choose their actions based on their own best interest.
Oct 17, 2009
Larissa
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This is one of the best books I've read in a long time. It's a fascinating read!
