Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routine ...more
His capricious performance evoked what lab researchers call Harvard’s Law, “Under the most rigorously controlled conditions of pressure, temperature, volume, humidity, and other variables, the organism will do as it damn well pleases.” - location 296
people rolling dice throw softly when they want to roll low numbers and hard for high numbers. - location 383
Before the drawing, one o ...more
For those who have read MTYK, this book is less useful and pretty repetitive. Most of the points in "Think Twice" (TT) have already been covered in MTYK, although in different depths. TT usually delves deeper on each subject, mostly because the material is not only focused on finance/investing as in MTIK, and because you have less ground ...more
Think Twice seems to exist largely to temper the excessess the author perceives in Gladwell and Ariely's works.
Gladwell's popular book, Blink, leads Maubossin to take the opposite corner - that people should "Think Twice" rather than go with their gut. However, he ends his book assuring th ...more
The author concludes the dull book with two suggestions that capture just how pointless this book is: 1) Keep a decision journal and record how you feel while you make decisions. 2) Make a checklist. [slow clap] A stunningly dull conclusion to a stunningly dull book with absolutely nothing to add to the conversation o ...more
Good book that highlights decision making errors. Good advice given: focusing on skill and changing things you can control vs praising or criticizing outcomes. Overall it's a fairly easy and quick read. I would recommend it.
In Chapter 4: Situational Awareness: How Accordian Music Boost Sales of Burgundy, MM explains how our judgement is distorted by misperception, knowledge suppression when going against the majority or by distorted perception caused by a mental flaw where we actually perceive the situation differen ...more
There is something very important to remember when it comes to ...more
THINK TWICE is a fantastic book for people interested in decision making. In particular, why we often fail and how we can improve our skills. Mauboussin offers deep insights int ...more
THINK TWICE – Harnessing the power of COUNTERINTITUTION by Michael J. Mauboussin is a sharply focussed book. What makes it interesting is the way it shows you the possible reasons : why you must THINK TWICE?. Then follows it with sharply defined MISTAKES you could be making in reaching your decisions inferences. At the end it delivers the benefit statement- as to how you can make THINK TWICE a HABIT.
liked the book. It is easy impactful impressive reading. Very tightly wr ...more
Research indicates that people buy more German wine when a store’s sound system plays German music in the background and more French wine when it plays French music. However, shoppers claim that the background music has no effect on their wine choices. Most people think that they make rational decisions, even if they do not. In this example, irrelevant, low-level sensory input determines people’s choices. Michael J. Mauboussin, a finance professor and inves ...more
The reason I took a star off is that I think that he (similarly to Kahneman and The Halo Effect) almost veers off into implicit nihilism toward the end - if you subscribe to the positive-psychology view of the world (i.e. that the outliers reflect possibility), or really any view of the world based on de re rat ...more
Having said that...it is a well-thought out book in which the author reminds readers to be aware of poten ...more
I like the idea of premortems.
A premortem is when you sit down and say "This did not go as planned" and ask what happened and why, but you do this before the event in question happens.
You assume things didn't go well, then ask why they didn't go well. It forces you to really think about the possible negative things that could happen - very useful tool.
The book is to help people make better decisions by alerting us to recognize when we enter a danger zone.
Each chapter can be expanded into a book. I like the chapter of mean-reversion, skill vs luck, wisdom of the crowd, and base rate.
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Michael J. Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Prior to joining LMCM in 2004, Michael was a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse. Michael joined CS in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst. He is a former president of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York and was repeatedly named to Institutional Investors All-America R...more