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Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.
Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routin...more
Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routin...more
Hardcover, 224 pages
Published
October 6th 2009
by Harvard Business Review Press
(first published 2009)
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I regard decision making as a fundamental skill in life. It's always been a mystherie to me why books on decision making do not attract a large audience. As the author writes: There's a funny paradox with decision making. Almost everyone realizes how important it is, yet very few people practice (let alone read about it).
THINK TWICE is a fantastic book for people interested in decision making. In particular, why we often fail and how we can improve our skills. Mauboussin offers deep in...more
THINK TWICE is a fantastic book for people interested in decision making. In particular, why we often fail and how we can improve our skills. Mauboussin offers deep in...more
This book is dedicated to exposing mistakes people make as a result of poor intuition. The problem is that our intuition was great for the last few million years, but it has become inappropriate or ineffective in the last century or two due to the rapid innovations in technology, psychology, marketing, and so on. For example, people favor anecdotes over statistics. In one study, people were given a hypothetical choice between a cancer treatment that worked 30% of the time and one that worked 90%...more
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Mr. Mauboussin's latest installment dives deeper into some of the ideas that he introduced in More Than You Know and focuses on the subset of cognitive heuristics that lead us into poor decision making.
In Chapter 4: Situational Awareness: How Accordian Music Boost Sales of Burgundy, MM explains how our judgement is distorted by misperception, knowledge suppression when going against the majority or by distorted perception caused by a mental flaw where we actually perceive the situa...more
In Chapter 4: Situational Awareness: How Accordian Music Boost Sales of Burgundy, MM explains how our judgement is distorted by misperception, knowledge suppression when going against the majority or by distorted perception caused by a mental flaw where we actually perceive the situa...more
Helpful guide to better decision making
Research indicates that people buy more German wine when a store’s sound system plays German music in the background and more French wine when it plays French music. However, shoppers claim that the background music has no effect on their wine choices. Most people think that they make rational decisions, even if they do not. In this example, irrelevant, low-level sensory input determines people’s choices. Michael J. Mauboussin, a finance profess...more
Research indicates that people buy more German wine when a store’s sound system plays German music in the background and more French wine when it plays French music. However, shoppers claim that the background music has no effect on their wine choices. Most people think that they make rational decisions, even if they do not. In this example, irrelevant, low-level sensory input determines people’s choices. Michael J. Mauboussin, a finance profess...more
What is the answer to most questions in life? According to Michael Mauboussin, the answer is: "It depends". And this is the take home message from his book. In the book, he elaborates on why it so hard to make sound decisions in an increasingly complex world. All of us, whether we are aware of it or not, fall victim to a series of cognitive errors that prevent us from understanding the realities and complexities of the decisions we face on a daily basis. On the bright side, many o...more
This book describes and examines some fascinating biases and errors we humans are subject to. Some fun quotes/notes:
Harvard's Law states, "Under the most rigorously controlled conditions of pressure, temperature, volume humidity, and other variables, the organism will do as it damn well pleases." - p2
"People rolling dice throw softly when they want to roll low numbers and hard for high numbers." - p6
Planning fallacy: people consistently and...more
Harvard's Law states, "Under the most rigorously controlled conditions of pressure, temperature, volume humidity, and other variables, the organism will do as it damn well pleases." - p2
"People rolling dice throw softly when they want to roll low numbers and hard for high numbers." - p6
Planning fallacy: people consistently and...more
This is another solid book by Mauboussin, whose writing style is very easy to follow. My only issue with it is that he indites many of the same topics (e.g. confirmation bias, tunnel vision traps, awareness of the "anchoring" effect) he covered 4 years earlier in his last book, More Than You Know. If you’re debating over which book to read first, then I would lean towards More Than You Know.
Having said that...it is a well-thought out book in which the author reminds reader...more
Having said that...it is a well-thought out book in which the author reminds reader...more
Mauboussin takes the approach that thinking beyond the principles of "Blink" (Gladwell) we can then make better decisions. Mauboussin identifies errors in thinking that led to trouble in different environments. Very useful for everyday living. Thought some examples were weak for supporting arguments.
Many of the logical fallacies discussed in the book would be familiar to students of logic, psychology (both individual and crowds) and behavioral finance. The book is easy to read, making it accessable to laypersons. I picked up several useful points to improved my business and investing.
A book every decision maker needs to read. Walks you through the most common pitfalls that human nature leads us to in making decision on complex problems. Great examples and cogent ties to other recent books(black swan, wisdom of crowds, the age of the unthinkable). I will use this for a long time to come.
An outstanding survey of 8 of the most common thinking mistakes we humans regularly make. The author focuses on investments because that's his area of interest, but the advice works for all walks of life and business.
I'm half way on finishing the book but i am full already. what i meant by this is that the plot, the examples in it are too boring or too complicated to appreciate. since i cant help but compare his books to Malcolm Gladwell, i would rate this book quite low.
(after reading)
i did learn something from it, but most of it are well presented by the books of Malcolm Gladwell. maybe when i get older and more well rounded, i will get to appreciate this book better.
(after reading)
i did learn something from it, but most of it are well presented by the books of Malcolm Gladwell. maybe when i get older and more well rounded, i will get to appreciate this book better.
good, but seems to be a re-hash of other work. Good intro to Mauboussin, but don't bother if you've read his previous books.
An excellent overview of Mauboussin's writings on behavior, decision-making, human biases and how to compensate for them. It's what I would call an overview of major themes, written almost as though intended for a five-day workshop on the topic. Devoted readers of Mauboussin, Lehrer, Gladwell, Wilson, Tversky, Taleb and others who tackle this topic will find it a bit of a rehash of familiar topics and stories. I recommend it highly, though, for those looking for an approachable, enjoyable int...more
Mary Burton
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Great book.
A great summary of other books research on why we make bad decisions and a handy first read if you're interested in making better decisions by avoiding the common traps and mistakes that we all make.
It was ok - super easy to read, but not as pragmatic as the first chapter seemed to indicate. A coverage of some of the biases Westerners gravitate toward when making decisions, with tips on how to avoid.
Good review of decision making and various biases and strategies to counter act them. Better books out there, but it's a good start.
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Michael J. Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Prior to joining LMCM in 2004, Michael was a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse. Michael joined CS in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst. He is a former president of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York and was repeatedly named to Institutional Investors All-America R
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