The Wisdom of Crowds

by James Surowiecki

book data

1,012 ratings, 3.63 average rating, 181 reviews (more data...)

rating	frequency	%
5		15%
4		42%
3		32%
2		8%
1		1%

edit

published

August 16th 2005 (first published 2004) by Anchor

binding

Paperback, 306 pages

url

http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisd...

isbn

0385721706 (isbn13: 9780385721707)

description

In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than a...more

find at: Amazon | Half.com | Barnes & Noble | Abebooks | compare prices…

new topic
discuss this book

There are no discussion topics on this book yet. Be the first to start one »

friend reviews

To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up.

lists with this book

This book is currently not featured on any Listopia lists. Add this book to your favorite list »

other reviews (showing 1-20 of 1,837)

sort: default (?) | date
filters: all | text-only

04/08/07

TK rated it:

bookshelves: gametheory, social-networks, systemstheory, thinkingtools

Read in April, 2006

I enjoyed this book. I wrote a review and then read everyone else's review and decided to return to write something more to the point. Some people did not even finish the book so I'd like highlight a few important concepts Surowiecki was trying to communicate.

The four essential conditions that make up a smart or wise crowd are:
- Diversity of Opinion
Each person must have some private information that he/she brings to the group. Their own interpretation or their own und...more

Like this review? yes (7 people liked it)

1 comment

12/20/07

Mike Banino rated it:

Read in May, 2007

Two heads are better than one. And a hundred heads are even better. And a thousand are almost perfect. Watch the asymptote as it approaches infinity... You are getting veeeerrrry sleeeeepy...

This is a very interesting concept, fleshed out into a very boring book. It seems like a graduate thesis that got stretched to book length for publication in hopes of drafting the popular slipstream of writers such as Malcolm Gladwell.

The premise is fascinating, and the first chapter ...more

Like this review? yes (3 people liked it)

add a comment

07/30/08

Ben Campopiano rated it:

bookshelves: non-fiction

Read in August, 2008

"As he walked through the exhibition that day, Galton came across a weight-judging competition. A fat ox hade been selected and placed on display, and members of a agathering crowd were lining up to place wagers on the weight of the ox. (Or rather, they were placing wagers on what the weight of the ox would be after it had been slaughtered and dresssed.) For sixpence, you could buy a stamped and numbered ticket, where you filled in your name, your address, and your estimate. The best guesse...more

Like this review? yes (2 people liked it)

add a comment

09/27/08

Christy rated it:

We usually think that a crowd, taken as a whole, is going to be wrong. But surprisingy, if you take everybody's individual wisdom and average it together, you'll get a better answer than you'll find from an expert. We're not talking about committees here--you don't put everybody together and have them talk it out. People have to come to their decisions independently. This works whether you're guessing the number of jelly beans in a bottle, or finding a lost submarine, or trying to guess wher...more

Like this review? yes (2 people liked it)

add a comment

06/20/09

Ben Mullins rated it:

bookshelves: business, economics, politics

Read in June, 2009

recommended to Ben by: David

Advocates of free markets have difficulty explaining their position to non-economists; it is easy to see how a market can work if someone is in charge, but difficult to see how no one can be in charge and a market performs better. Empirical evidence about market interactions rarely goes much further than academia. By showing how, and why, crowds can be smarter than experts, Surowiecki is showing how free markets can be more efficient than controlled markets. Written for the general public and...more

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

5 comments

11/13/08

Kathrynn rated it:

bookshelves: 2008, nonfiction-business, own, reviewed

Read in December, 2008

I've debated on how to rate this book. On one hand there were interesting ideas between the cover, but on the other hand it was very dry and boring. I agree with another reviewer who mentioned it was like reading a thesis.

The author separated the book into two parts: Part 1 and Part 2 and for the life of me I can't fathom why because it all ran together. The introduction starts off with numerous examples to the points he intends to make throughout the book that also have numerous...more

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

2 comments

05/06/09

Jeff Leitner rated it:

bookshelves: business-like

Read in May, 2009

This is one of those required reads for anybody who is entrusted with making decisions for his/her organization. Now, as someone who is paid to be smart and insightful, I'm not crazy about the findings that a large enough group is wiser and more right than the smartest individual members of that group. But findings is what findings is.

One day, somebody should - maybe I should - develop a curriculum of important ideas in social science that would help creative folks be even more cre...more

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

add a comment

01/27/09

Eric_W rated it:

bookshelves: current-affairs, philosophy

Read in January, 2003

Updated 4/12/09. I was handing out this book to all my friends and colleagues at work, especially our president, who seemed to think a small coterie of sycophants was all he needed.

From an earlier review I wrote some time ago: Wisdom of Crowds is a very insightful book about how we make decisions. The author describes the dangers of homogeneity in promoting group think, something we will begin to see more of in the Bush second administration as he builds his Cabinet with "Yes...more Updated 4/12/09. I was handing out this book to all my friends and colleagues at work, especially our president, who seemed to think a small coterie of sycophants was all he needed.

From an earlier review I wrote some time ago: Wisdom of Crowds is a very insightful book about how we make decisions. The author describes the dangers of homogeneity in promoting group think, something we will begin to see more of in the Bush second administration as he builds his Cabinet with "Yes" men and women. Analysis by social scientists shows that decisions made by groups that permit little diversity are often wrong and conformity to adhere to the majority opinion can be very strong. Solomon Asch 's studies on conformity showed that an individual would often agree with the group even if there was overwhelming evidence to the contrary. For example, when presented with a card showing lines of different lengths and asked to pick the shortest one, subjects would almost always pick the one chosen by other members of the group (the experimenter's confederates) even when it was obviously not the shortest.

Many of Surowiceki's arguments seem counter-intuitive, but he cites a fair amount of evidence that the best decisions, on average, are always made by groups rather than individuals regardless of their expertise. In fact, he says: "... the more power you give a single individual in the face of complexity and uncertainty, the more likely it is that bad decisions will get made."

For the group decision-making process to work the best, several elements must be present.

1. A formal process for encouraging disagreement must be present;

2. The group must consist of stakeholders and non-stakeholders, i.e., people normally not part of the group should be present to make sure diversity of opinion is present. Diversity guarantees that multiple perspectives are brought into the decision-making process and that a broader range of information is included;

3. the group must belief and see that it has the responsibility for making decisions. If the decision is made elsewhere, the result is the opposite, i.e., bad results or at least not the best;

4. individuals be independent and have that independence respected to avoid being swayed by a leader or one powerful individual,

5. and there be a process for aggregating the opinions. It's important that pressure to conform be suppressed.

An intelligent group does not ask of its individual members to conform to the dominant view. Instead it creates a mechanism that resembles a democracy or a market. Individual group members get the opportunity to bring in their own information and opinions and are not forced to change their views. Their independence must be explicitly protected.

Much like army ants in a circular mill who die from exhaustion following a lost leader, humans will often indulge in group think and group action even if it is not in their interest to do so. And the more influence we exert on one another the more likely we are to become collectively dummer. A very good argument for encouraging independent thinkers and nay sayers.

The first half, or so, of the book is theory (sounds dry, but it's really quite fascinating) followed by some case studies.(less)

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

3 comments

02/20/08

Tom rated it:

Read in March, 2008

recommended to Tom by: Muhammed Saleem

The Wisdom of Crowds takes a scientific look at the theory that given the right composition and the right problems to solve, a group can collectively be smarter than its smartest member. It sounds like it can't be true, I know, but the author is quite convincing. The book details three different types of problems crowds can help solve:

1. Cognition problems: Problems that have definitive solution, such as how many jelly beans are in this big jar?
2. Coordination problems: Problem...more The Wisdom of Crowds takes a scientific look at the theory that given the right composition and the right problems to solve, a group can collectively be smarter than its smartest member. It sounds like it can't be true, I know, but the author is quite convincing. The book details three different types of problems crowds can help solve:

1. Cognition problems: Problems that have definitive solution, such as how many jelly beans are in this big jar?
2. Coordination problems: Problems that require members of a group to figure out how to coordinate their behavior with each other, such as driving safely in heavy traffic.
3. Cooperation problems: Problems that require self-interested, distrustful people to work together, even when narrow self interest would seem to dictate that no individual should take part, i.e. paying taxes or taking care of the environment.

There are also necessary ingredients in a successful crowd: Diversity of opinion, independence and decentralization.

There are lots of interesting examples of the above throughout the book. I found the studies on cooperation problems to be specifically interesting - the ultimatum game (p112) and the public-goods (p139) experiments are great examples of this.

Still, I'm sure that after reading all that, you still have doubts, as it seems counterintuitive to think that a crowd of undetermined intelligence is smarter than a really intelligent individual. I'll leave you, dear readers, with this to think about (from the afterword, pp277-278):

"The Wisdom of Crowds is not an argument against experts, but against our excessive faith in the single individual decision maker. I think there are two big problems with relying on a single individual - no matter how well informed. The first is that true experts - that is, the real titans - are surprisingly hard to identify. In fact, if a group is smart enough to know whether an individual is a genuine decision-making prodigy, then the group is smart enough not to need that individual."(less)

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

add a comment

09/10/08

Al rated it:

Read in September, 2008

Maybe somewhere inside this poorly written, incoherent book, there's a decent short article waiting to be written. Who knows, maybe that article has already been written, and that's why this foolishness has been perpetrated. My heart goes out to the poor fool who had to edit this thing; that's assuming it was edited, because you really can't tell by reading it. What must it have been like before the editing?
Fortunately, the basic idea isn't hard to understand, and certainly it'...more

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

add a comment

11/25/08

Zach rated it:

Read in February, 2006

recommended to Zach by: Alex Kralicek
recommends it for: People watchers

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers. To view it, click here.

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

add a comment

01/25/09

Trevor rated it:

This book begins with a bang and ends with a bang – so I guess it is not too surprising that there is a bit of a whimper in the middle. In some ways this book covers similar ground to other books I’ve read recently, particularly Fooled By Randomness. In fact, it could be that I’ve been reading far too many of this type of book recently and so they are all starting to merge into one.

The kinds of people who do tests on other people did a test in which they asked a group of peop...more

Like this review? yes

add a comment

06/17/09

Mary Bassett rated it:

Read in June, 2009

I write this review unsure if I gave this book the attention it deserved. Generally, all books I "read" are on audiobook. This means I will miss things as my mind wanders or my attention is demanded. But usually, my listening comprehension is at least decent. This one, I came away not fully remembering what was in it.

It seemed to me a hodge-podge of ideas similar to those found in other books I've read. The message seemed to be "Crowds are wise, except for when th...more

Like this review? yes

add a comment

02/05/09

Bookmarks Magazine added it (review of isbn 0385503865)

Surowiecki first developed his ideas for Wisdom of Crowds in his "Financial Page" column of The New Yorker. Many critics found his premise to be an interesting twist on the long held notion that Americans generally question the masses and eschew groupthink. "A socialist might draw some optimistic conclusions from all of this," wrote The New York Times. "But Surowiecki's framework is decidedly capitalist." Some reviewers felt that the academic language and business s

...more

Like this review? yes

add a comment

05/25/09

Mary Beth rated it:

Read in June, 2009

James Surowiecki’s groundbreaking book is so full of poignant statements and analyses that trying to find one quote to sum up the book’s theme is difficult. However, two quotes stick out for me in trying to convey Surowiecki’s main theme. On the topic of how best to run an organization, Surowiecki states, “Suggesting that the organization with the smartest people may not be the best organization is heretical, particularly in a business world caught up in a ceaseless ‘war for talent�...more James Surowiecki’s groundbreaking book is so full of poignant statements and analyses that trying to find one quote to sum up the book’s theme is difficult. However, two quotes stick out for me in trying to convey Surowiecki’s main theme. On the topic of how best to run an organization, Surowiecki states, “Suggesting that the organization with the smartest people may not be the best organization is heretical, particularly in a business world caught up in a ceaseless ‘war for talent’ and governed by the assumption that a few superstars can make the difference between an excellent and a mediocre company” (p.31). This is quite a prediction (the book was published in 2005) of the Walter Madoff scandal and the CDS phenomenon that recently turned the financial world upside down.

On the topic of how groups organize themselves in American society, he explains, “…in liberal societies authority had only limited reach over the way citizens dealt with each other. In authority’s stead, certain conventions—voluntarily enforced…by ordinary people—play an essential role in helping large groups of people to coordinate their behavior with each other with out coercion” (p.97). Here, he is speaking of cultural ‘norms,’ such as ‘first come, first serve’ seating on subway cars in Manhattan. In the context of the Internet, which is not regulated by any central authority, these conventions that coordinate behaviors are very much in play. Users have created their own ‘norms’ and expectations for the web in the same way people on the subway understand how seating works through a set of unspoken cultural rules.

In the context of students and learning, this book provides teachers with an understanding of how their students, who most likely participate in the online world, are part of a bigger picture in creating an organized culture and in making good decisions for the future. When students participate in social networks, file sharing, or any other kind of social construct on the web, they are part of an important decision making process. Since the Internet is controlled by its users, not a centralized authority, users have a huge stake in its success and its progress. This has implications for how we teach students good digital citizenship and safety. As Surowiecki states, “It may be in the end, that a good society is defined by how people treat strangers than by how they treat those they know” (p. 112). With an ever-increasing online community, this society is now a global society. Educators are now in charge of the huge task of making students good global citizens. Teachers should be models for how to use the Internet and communicate with others online. The better informed the youth are, the better future prospects are for society in general. Most communication and collaboration in the next decade will occur online.

This book manages to link every aspect of modern society through the underlining theme of how groups of individuals function in many different situations. While the theme remains the same: “The idea of the wisdom of crowds is not that a group will always give you the right answer but that on average it will consistently come up with a better answer than any individual could provide.” (p. 235), it plays out differently in different arenas. Surowiecki addresses the theme as it plays out on the Internet, in traffic jams, in mobster movies, Linux, the stock market and the business world in general. It is a relevant analysis for any audience. Whether you are an educator, an economist, a stockbroker, a commuter, an engineer, a frequent blogger or contributor to YouTube, you will find something relevant in this book.
(less)

Like this review? yes

add a comment

03/11/09

Pamela rated it:

Read in August, 2008

Crowds and committees can make decisions that are as good as -- and often times better than -- a knowledgable individual. As someone who's never been a fan of "group think," I found this book enlightening; it changed my perspective on what's important to making high-quality decisions. This is, in part, becuase there's a lot of research referenced in this book to support the author's thesis. The book also helps explain the power of today's social media. I'd read Malcolm Gladwell's book...more

Like this review? yes

add a comment

01/22/09

Tom rated it:

Read in March, 2009

My favorite part of the book came in the introduction. Surowiecki was telling a story of a man named Galton who watched a crowd of people guess the weight of an ox. After 800 guesses from many different walks of life he graphed the results and found the mean of the total guesses. The crowd’s mean guess was 1197 pounds. The actual weight of the ox was 1198. So Surowiecki goes on to write the most engaging part of the book, “What Francis Galton stumbled on that day in Plymouth was th...more My favorite part of the book came in the introduction. Surowiecki was telling a story of a man named Galton who watched a crowd of people guess the weight of an ox. After 800 guesses from many different walks of life he graphed the results and found the mean of the total guesses. The crowd’s mean guess was 1197 pounds. The actual weight of the ox was 1198. So Surowiecki goes on to write the most engaging part of the book, “What Francis Galton stumbled on that day in Plymouth was the simple, but powerful, truth that is at the heart of this book: Under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them. Groups do not need to be dominated by exceptionally intelligent people in order to be smart. Even if most of the people within a group are not especially well-informed or rational, it can still reach a collectively wise decision.” The passage was significant to me because the author clearly stated the message he was trying to convey and backed it up with a real-life example that supported his main idea. The idea of the wisdom of crowds is inspiring and an interesting and thought-provoking thing for students to think about.
Unfortunately, after the introduction, the collection of loosely supporting stories often degenerated so far into randomness that they seemed like nothing more than a collection of short stories about groups of people and the decisions they eventually made or the conclusions the author came to about their situation and it’s group wisdom. Each sub-collection of situations was meant to highlight a different way that crowds or groups of people are wiser than any one individual. Surowiecki addresses a group’s differences, similarities, coordination or seeming lack there of, collaboration or lack of, and how small groups don’t always work out.
This book cannot connect well with current educational issues. I have been sitting here for almost an hour trying to make up some type of correlation. The internet and it’s active users are now the largest group this world may ever see. I was hoping for some insight into how the world will change and eventually turn into some Utopian society because of the way technology has made it possible for our opinions to be heard on a grand scale. This idea of this book would be a great debate starter for a High School class of forward-thinking teenagers. But don’t force them to read this book. The monotony of it would make them hate this noble idea.
I give this book a 7 out of 10 because I love the idea and really wish the author would have supported it solidly in less than 100 pages rather than stretching it into a rambling and confusing 306. I am a people watcher and was really excited to get into this book. If you are interested in people and the way they may react to things in crowds, you may like this book.
(less)

Like this review? yes

add a comment

08/02/07

William rated it:

bookshelves: marketing-pr-social-media

Read in January, 2009

Really the best way to review this book is to just star it, right? <wink>

Like this review? yes (1 person liked it)

add a comment

01/28/09

Nigel rated it:

bookshelves: 2009-book-a-week-

Read in February, 2009

This is a great book! Fascinating subject matter, and presented really, really well. My only beef with it is that it's old -- published in 2004 with an updated afterward by the author from 2005. The last few chapters in particular -- about how markets work, why bubbles and crashes happen, how a herd mentality can lead to irrational exuberance (and how herd-thinking is qualitatively different from focused and rational collective action or group-think) -- the whole discussion is particularly en...more

Like this review? yes

add a comment

02/13/09

Theron Kelso rated it:

bookshelves: 2008, economincs, sociology

I was skeptical when I first picked this book up. In fact, I picked it up and put it down any number of times. I picked it up and red the preface and after a short grumble, I put it down. Picked up, put down. Up down. Again. Weeks pasted before I picked it up again, knowing that there must be something of value in there, somewhere. Following a quick read, I wasn’t too disappointed. However, the first half is much better than the last half.

Surowiecki starts with a mildly entertainin...more