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The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone fro...more
Hardcover, 272 pages
Published
September 29th 2009
by Random House
(first published September 21st 2009)
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Rational Self-Interest!*
This guy declares that everyone is an egotist. Nothing very earth shattering there. Then he sets about proving it by name dropping all the important people who have seen fit to pay him money to solve problems.
One gets the feeling that he's missed out on the cottage industry of pop prognostication that has sprung up in recent years (he even mentions how Nate Silver is the son of an old friend) and is desperately trying to get some street cred. It's as if the dad from Leav...more
This guy declares that everyone is an egotist. Nothing very earth shattering there. Then he sets about proving it by name dropping all the important people who have seen fit to pay him money to solve problems.
One gets the feeling that he's missed out on the cottage industry of pop prognostication that has sprung up in recent years (he even mentions how Nate Silver is the son of an old friend) and is desperately trying to get some street cred. It's as if the dad from Leav...more
ISBN 1400067871 - The first, and only, prediction I'd make on this book is that most readers will be way geekier than I. And I totally mean that in a good, awestruck, way because - you've surely noticed by now - geeks run the world and I don't.
Given (some of) the (extraordinarily) lengthy (long-winded...) reviews on this book (which scared me away from reading the book for a while), I'm going to forego any real recap of the book. If you haven't bothered to read any of the more verbose reviews, m...more
Given (some of) the (extraordinarily) lengthy (long-winded...) reviews on this book (which scared me away from reading the book for a while), I'm going to forego any real recap of the book. If you haven't bothered to read any of the more verbose reviews, m...more
Looks at an application of game theory for predicting the future of business and political negotiations. The model relies on political or business experts to identify specific issues, their possible outcomes, and the key players. Players are the people who influence a negotiation or decision. Experts are asked to answer narrow questions about which outcome each player would prefer, how important the issue is to each player, and how much influence each player can exert. The model simulates a numb...more
Aug 18, 2010
Lindsey Turnbow
rated it
3 of 5 stars
Recommends it for:
people interested in PoliSci but without a strong bg in it
Recommended to Lindsey by:
Chris Butler
I like the cover. It's pretty. I know that's not important, and will likely change with future editions of the book, but still... I said it.
This is the second of Bueno De Mesquita's books that I've read. I definitely appreciate that he attempted to make something more approachable to people with little-to-no background in political science (yup, that's me).
But one of his ideas of "approachable" seems to be "witty," which I am of the opinion BDM is not. As an introduction to the concepts of his...more
This is the second of Bueno De Mesquita's books that I've read. I definitely appreciate that he attempted to make something more approachable to people with little-to-no background in political science (yup, that's me).
But one of his ideas of "approachable" seems to be "witty," which I am of the opinion BDM is not. As an introduction to the concepts of his...more
Game theory has always been a fascinating subject for me, and Bueno de Mesquita's book helped introduce to me the ways in which he's taken that idea to the next level. By gathering information from various sources and running carefully modeled computer simulations, Bueno de Mesquita shows that the correct 'move' in a situation is not always the obvious one, and in some cases, the seemingly right move is doomed to failure.
I really enjoyed reading his deep analysis of different situations, such a...more
I really enjoyed reading his deep analysis of different situations, such a...more
A mostly fascinating consulting firm commercial. The unusually named Bruce Bueno De Mesquita (does this roughly translate to Bruce The Good Female Mosquito?) is a New York professor, Stanford University fellow and most relevantly runs a consulting firm you can hire to show (or “predictioneer” in consultant-speak) you the future. The peering into the future via the application of higher game theory math, as celebrated in the film “A Beautiful Mind”, is described in the first roughly 60% of the bo...more
Everyone interested in politics needs to read this book.
Several researches has shown that general population in developed countries do not behave entirely according to the game theory and they also conclude that the more level of country development is the less pure self-interests affect people behavior.
Well, apparently complex selfishness behavior is not a true case at all for large category of people and especially it is not true for politicians and businessmen. You probably always suspected...more
Several researches has shown that general population in developed countries do not behave entirely according to the game theory and they also conclude that the more level of country development is the less pure self-interests affect people behavior.
Well, apparently complex selfishness behavior is not a true case at all for large category of people and especially it is not true for politicians and businessmen. You probably always suspected...more
Bueno de Mesquita is a leading game theorist among political scientists and this book attempts to introduce the layman to the logic of self-interested behavior. The beginning of this book is pretty effective. The first few chapters use everyday examples to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Readers are led to believe that they will learn how to apply some concepts from game theory to their own lives. Had the book continued this way, it would have been very good. Unfortunately, the last 2/...more
-It could have been shorter.
-An optional in-depth "technical" chapter would have served well, in which the details of the game theory model would be described in more detail.
-Some of the case studies discussed (aimed at validating the model) were actually to obvious. A model wasnt required for them. For example, in the Isreal-Palestine conflict its kind of obvious that the end result of any peace talks would be a position somewhere between what the extreme Palestinians and Israelis want.
-The boo...more
-An optional in-depth "technical" chapter would have served well, in which the details of the game theory model would be described in more detail.
-Some of the case studies discussed (aimed at validating the model) were actually to obvious. A model wasnt required for them. For example, in the Isreal-Palestine conflict its kind of obvious that the end result of any peace talks would be a position somewhere between what the extreme Palestinians and Israelis want.
-The boo...more
An interesting book. It makes me want to read more about game theory and statistics. This is the first time I've seen a description of game theory applied to real world problems in a rigorous manner. There are a number of political situations in the world that seemed (for me) impossible to understand, solve or make sense of. This book uses game theory to show why some of these situations are stuck the way they are. It explains why some countries and politicians behave the way they do. What may s...more
A few of the chapters lived up to my hopes for the book, but several were disappointing. Using game theory to predict behavior is a fascinating topic, in my opinion. The book had a strong opening as he explained some of the basics of game theory and applied it to some real life situations. He then began to explain how his prediction model worked, but after talking about how he gets information from experts about certain questions, this ends abruptly. I was hoping to learn a little more about his...more
May 04, 2010
Richard
rated it
3 of 5 stars
Recommended to Richard by:
New York Times
Shelves:
cognition,
non-fiction
De Mesquita's book is on the whole quite interesting, but ultimately very frustrating as well.
The essential idea is that he has created a computer model that simulates the interactions of multiple agents to predict the likelihood and form of an outcome. The basic form of the simulation is an iterated and evolving game. The inputs to the model are, apparently, purely quantitative representations of various attributes of those agents, including influence, salience and preferred outcome; the logic...more
The essential idea is that he has created a computer model that simulates the interactions of multiple agents to predict the likelihood and form of an outcome. The basic form of the simulation is an iterated and evolving game. The inputs to the model are, apparently, purely quantitative representations of various attributes of those agents, including influence, salience and preferred outcome; the logic...more
Nice introduction to game theory and international relations. (Bueno De Mesquita can come across as pompous at times, but it helps if you agree with him.)
Unfortunately, (or perhaps fortunately) this is a very superficial treatment of the subject designed for a general audience. It appears as though his other book, Predicting Politics, provides more insight into the methodology and mathematical models which inform Bueno De Mesquita's predictions.
Unfortunately, (or perhaps fortunately) this is a very superficial treatment of the subject designed for a general audience. It appears as though his other book, Predicting Politics, provides more insight into the methodology and mathematical models which inform Bueno De Mesquita's predictions.
I learned what I already knew from this book-- that individuals and institutions act exclusively in their best interest. But Bueno De Mesquita took me from purely qualitative to a more quantitative, measurable and plannable place.
It's almost painful at first, to have my "selfish sense" awakened to the point where I see otheres brazenly (though mostly unconsciously) flaunting their self-interest. Even more painful is the inevitability of my having to learn more of the tactical employment of the...more
It's almost painful at first, to have my "selfish sense" awakened to the point where I see otheres brazenly (though mostly unconsciously) flaunting their self-interest. Even more painful is the inevitability of my having to learn more of the tactical employment of the...more
While the concepts can be a bit difficult, I found the idea of using game theory to not only predict likely outcomes of multi-player conflicts, but to use the information gained to "engineer" a better outcome for a chosen player. If you are interested in historical analysis of lynchpin events, or just a fascination with real-world applications of higher math (you know, that stuff everyone said could help you one day) then give this book a read.
I recommend this to anyone interested in quantitative decision-making or statistics. Bueno de Mesquita makes a wealth of statistical knowledge accessible, but I never felt like he went deep in describing his model for making decisions - he spent much more time talking about the historical or political environment of each situation. While I enjoyed the book, I hoped to learn more about statistics than politics.
A cool premise, to be sure: can you use game theory to predict social events and even engineer the outcome, based on the very simple concept that "people do what they perceive is in their own best interests all the time". This maxim generally does hold true, the complicated part being in sorting out all the things they're thinking about and how they are perceiving them and the interplay of many people.
An entertaining work that looks at the author's method of predicting and engineering events using game theory. For my tastes, I would have liked to see some math in the book; it's all fine to talk about the equations, but I like to actually see what we're talking about. Still, the book managed to be interesting and engaging.
A popularized (no equations) book on using game theory to predict networked political problems which often turn out to be resolved or described by a mathematical model of the political actors' self-interest. Worth reading to realize that such models are usually intuitive.
A really remarkable book. The author is the pre-eminent scholar on applying algorithmic techniques to predicting macro scale problems/solutions in economics and politics. It has interesting and wide-scale implications. It shows just how predictable and primitive human incentives are.
Truly a fascinating book! De Mesquita has used the game theory of John Nash to develop a series of models that help him to predict future events. The predictions are not simply binary (yes/no) prognostications--they are in-depth analyses that describe what will happen, and why. The author claims a 90% success rate. The last few chapters include a set of detailed predictions made by HIS STUDENTS using his models. Some of the predictions (most notably, Pakistan) are starting to come to pass, now....more
This book starts out well enough focusing on game theory as it applies to real life situations. However, halfway through the book it seems to become more about the author's accomplishments than the theory itself. I got the feeling that the author feels that he doesn't get enough attention for his ideas. Might have been more interesting if it had been ghostwritten.
Aug 18, 2009
Bethany
marked it as to-read
I don't know that I'll ever actually read this, but there was an interesting article about this guy in the NYT about using game theory to predict whether (or when, actually) Iran will build an atomic bomb.
Entertaining applications of game theory (w/o much math, mainly computer simulation results) to politics, lawsuits, and buying car. May be worth it for the car buying advice alone.
It discusses a game theory model without revealing the model. So it's lessons from an obscured model... Which makes the application of the lessons limited in their value.
Though the subject was fascinating, the author dd a poor job illustrating his points. SO I gave it a weak 3 stars only because it was a tough subject to tackle...
The topic is extremely interesting, but I was not captivated by the writing style: too dense, too focused on the author's accomplishments as opposed to the subject itself.
Still an interesting read for those interested in conflict resolution and game theory.
Still an interesting read for those interested in conflict resolution and game theory.
Aug 03, 2010
Emma
rated it
2 of 5 stars
Recommends it for:
no one!
Recommended to Emma by:
NPR
Shelves:
non-fiction
Pretty boring. I was excited about a book that sounded like game theory, but this was really disappointing. And tendentious.
I've enjoyed learning the basics of game theory without the math, but find the book overall somewhat tedious.
Really fantastic book. I am sure that the scope of his methods are polarizing, but I am in.
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory.
He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell, that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using a computer m...more
More about Bruce Bueno De Mesquita...
He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell, that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using a computer m...more
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