This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthr...more
We replicate Reinhart and Rogoff and find that coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious erro...more
Mercifully, in the preface the authors tell us that the book is organized so you can skip to the last 4 chapters if you‘re interested only with “The Second Great Contraction” which began in the US late 2007. They warn ...more
Now that debt/GDP growth isn't as strongly correlated anymore, does that mean people will stop pushing austerity policies?
This book is clearly aimed at an academic or professional economic audience. The book is chock full of tables and graphs. The amount and quality of data is impressive.
As for the writing style, Alan Greenspan would be proud. Here is a typical sentence (pp 192-3): "Interpreting the (uncondition ...more
There's an old market adage that bears almost ALWAYS have the better argument; but that bulls, when the day is done, are most often right.... Of course, being bullish today is a relative concept. As Doug Henwood says, "flat is the new up".
This book, to my ...more
First I downloaded it from Audible.com. However, this book has a ton of graphs and tables. The reader of the audiobook frequently makes statements like "As can be seen from table 2.2..." The listener is unable to "see" table 2.2 as no tables or illustrations are provided either with the download or on the internet. So that's frustrating. Then I checked the book out in hardcopy from the library so as to be able to see the tables, ...more
For most people reading this book would be a real slog. It is dense and full of charts and tables. However, picking it up, opening it to an interesting looking chapter and examining the tables and charts can be very engaging. If you get bogged down, don't give up. Pick it up from time to time and read a section. You'll learn a lot about finance.
While I did not read the whole book I got some good pointers from it. One is that there was never a ...more
Every so often, experts sucker people into bidding up the prices of stocks or real estate because they announce that the economy has fundamentally changed. As the aftermath of the real estate bubble illustrates, the basics of economics don’t really change, no matter what fantasies people come to believe. Economics professors Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff present a thorough historical and statistical tour of financial hubris through the centuries, a po ...more
The authors aren't trying to write a book for a wide audience. It's mathematical and dry; that's the point. I hold a Bachelor's degree in Economics from a top-25 university--my coursework included International Finance and Econometrics--and I still found this book difficult. It's worth it if you are interested in economics and you don't get nervous when the authors don't apologize for being experts. A relatively simple passage from this book is something like, "A country c ...more
"Recognizing the significance of domestic debt can go a long way toward resolving the puzzle of why many countries default on (or restructure) their external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. In fact, when previously ignored domestic debt obligations are taken into account, fiscal duress at the time of default is often revealed to be quite severe." (119)
"The incidence of banking crises proves to be ...more
But I made it. Was it worth it? Hard to say. I do have a greater understanding o ...more
The main thesis covers the myth that "established" countries are not susceptible to the same ...more
이책은 금융위기를 다루는 책이다. <광기, 패닉, 붕괴. 금융위기의 역사> 라는 명저의 계보를 잇는 책인데, 이는 로고프 교수가 킨들버거 교수의 제자이기 때문이기도 하다. 이 책과는 달리 800년간의 데이터를 분석하여 금융위기에 대한 일반적인 설명을 하는 것이 이책의 가장 큰 메시지이다.
800년에 걸친 데이터를 분석하는 것은 어려운 일이었겠지만, 책에는 간결한 도표로 나타난다. 그 결과 "이번엔 다르다"라고 금융위기 직전에 통상 이야기 하다가, 막상 금융위기가 발생하곤 하는 상황이 반복된다는 것이 저자들의 이야기이다.
국가부채와 기업의 부채의 차이점을 이야기 하다가, 국가부채는 상환능력 만큼이나 상환의지가 중요하다는 설명을 하면서, 그런 상황을 이해하지 못하고 겨울에도 전기와 유류공급을 끊고 외채 상환을 결정한 1980년 ...more
This is interesting,