The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

3.56 of 5 stars 3.56 · rating details · 2,349 ratings · 429 reviews

“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman

In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expec...more

Hardcover, 272 pages

Published January 27th 2009 by Doubleday (first published 2008)

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Jun 04, 2012 Michael Herrman rated it 3 of 5 stars

I was suspicious of Friedman’s argument for being able to foresee the future because it essentially boiled down to “highly competent people have very few options to choose from”. That is to say that the more competent they are, the narrower their potential band of action and the easier to guess at what they’ll do.

To make his point, he invoked chess on the grandmaster level: a world-class player has few winning moves open to him, but many losing ones, and his logic is that the grandmaster will se...more

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May 23, 2013 Ben Vogel rated it 3 of 5 stars

I liked the beginning of the book a great deal. I would recommend the first couple chapters simply for the summaries of events leading to the current geopolitical condition. I also enjoyed the author's explanations of how historical forecasting can be a strong mix of science and art.

The latter portions of the book, if not taken too seriously, are some clever imaginings of the future course of the world, and America's place within that world. If taken literally, some of the speculations seem laug...more

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Dec 02, 2012 Janusz Dragunow rated it 2 of 5 stars

My short review is - do not buy this book. This is one of the worst books which I read recently. It is not worth any penny. Instead, I recommend to read "race against machine", writen by MIT' tutors. Until I saw a map of Europe divided on regions, I was expecting something at least with average quality. No one who puts Denmark, Italy and Germany in one "Central European" basket deserves for higher grade than 2/5. Spain and United Kingdom as one group of countries? Come on. This kind of books you...more My short review is - do not buy this book. This is one of the worst books which I read recently. It is not worth any penny. Instead, I recommend to read "race against machine", writen by MIT' tutors. Until I saw a map of Europe divided on regions, I was expecting something at least with average quality. No one who puts Denmark, Italy and Germany in one "Central European" basket deserves for higher grade than 2/5. Spain and United Kingdom as one group of countries? Come on. This kind of books you do not writing according what you want to fulfill in the future, but what can happened. In different scenarios. We saw here just one scenario, world dominated by the USA. I am from Poland, and I was living in Denmark. I have many friends from different countries. First time in my life I saw that someone put Denmark in different group than one of Scandinavians country. This is not only a member state of the scandinavian union but also a nordic country with Sweden and Norway. The most pure heartbeat of the north. Denmark and Southern Italy or even whole country have so much common as Lybia and Italy. The United Kingdom and Spain? What is similar between them? That Spain was once a naval superpower, a few centuries ago? These nations have completely different cultures, way of live. The different goals in international politics. The author completely ignored impact of technology on future societies. This already has begun. Just think how world is different nowadays due to automatization. The only problem in increasing production of the future societies will be resources not amount of workers. Average people are not necessary NOWADAYS in increasing output of industry. Only the most creative parts of society, engineers, sciencists and so on, are important. I doubt did for example future Pakistan could provide more well educated people than Russia only because they will have bigger population. He doesnt described the third possibility of Russian future, because he did not liked her. Depopulation of Russia, not only stopped but start rising recently. The government invest huge money in switching trends, and to become a exporter of goods not only resources. But he doesn't doing this investing in factories, trying to compete with existing industries in western europe. Russians investing in the technology of the future, to have strong positition, before rivals will emerge. Read about rusnano corporation. They know that can not win with Germany in industries, already well developed. If we start thinking in the future in this way, that shrinking population is even better due to shrinking resources, the Europe or Russia are in much better position than for example Brazil which will have to feed millions of not useful at all workers, replaced my machines. Automatized Russia, still can feed the unemployed population using own resources. Does Pakistan with maybe even 300 milions or african countries, will have this possibility? Read raport of British ministry of defense -global trends to 2070. The modification of human genome, technical unemployment, robots.. That is the future, where the future of Russia will be determined. To become a global superpower, one of many with the united States, or dissapear completely in a nuclear blast wuth a country who invaded terrotiry. Russia will have probably huge problems in the future, but comparing with another parts of globe they will be lucky ones due to huge underpopulation, described as weakness. The overpopulation and civil not interstate wars, will the main problem of future socities.

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Aug 29, 2012 Jorge rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: politics-economics

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman

"The Next 100 Years" is an interesting look at what the twenty-first century will look and feel like based on geopolitics. It's a book that speculates the future by using history, trends and by applying the decline and fall of Europe as the centerpiece and its replacement the United States as its model. The author focuses on who would resist and how the United States would respond to their resistance as the driving forces behi...more

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Jul 25, 2012 Owen rated it 4 of 5 stars

If this guy gets one more thing right he will vault into the 5 star range. I'm sure he's at home now, holding his breath.

This is the single most well-thought out book about the future I've ever read. It came highly recommended and delivered across the board. It's also the most optimistic futuristic book, particularly from an American perspective. the basic premise that America is only prepping for a second rise is fascinating. He is also entirely in the minority (I blame cable news, personally)....more

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Jul 05, 2012 Ryan Holiday rated it 3 of 5 stars

Books aimed at predicting the future are always dangerous and often reek of charlatanism. Books on politics and war are regularly partisan and emotional. It's impressive that The Next 100 years, a book that attempts to predict the future of both international politics and war in the coming century falls prey to none of those traps. Friedman is calm, dispassionate and articulate at each turn.

His predictions are surprising in that they contradict almost everything the average person would trend ou...more Books aimed at predicting the future are always dangerous and often reek of charlatanism. Books on politics and war are regularly partisan and emotional. It's impressive that The Next 100 years, a book that attempts to predict the future of both international politics and war in the coming century falls prey to none of those traps. Friedman is calm, dispassionate and articulate at each turn.

His predictions are surprising in that they contradict almost everything the average person would trend outwardly from 2009. For instance, Russia and China are not the countries we ought to fear. Why? Because they're ultimately limited by their geography and strategic incentives. These are the same inhibitions that have held them back in prior centuries. Instead Friedman thinks that Turkey, Mexico and Japan are likely future enemies. Whether or not he's ends up being proven correct, his writing is educational in that he refuses to succumb to the obvious. He looks at the underlying conditions - the why - and not the individuals or the common fears.

All that being said, Friedman and the book have two big weaknesses. One, Friedman uses the past to extrapolate the future. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb would retort, that's what the Thanksgiving turkey did to little success. Relying on what happened in the last twenty years as proof of what will happen in the next is dangerous and illogical. Even if you end up being right, it's because you guessed, not because you looked at the "evidence." As a result, the 21st Century in this book will apparently be almost identical to the 20th - albeit with shinier toys and more lasers. Two, this book has ZERO footnotes or references. It's unthinkable that 300 pages of political analysis and complex predictions would be without a single sourced sentence. There's not even an index to use for research.

Accordingly, The Next 100 Years should be viewed as intelligent and well-written entertainment, not an academic work. Whether that was his intention, to me, is irrelevant.(less)

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Jun 07, 2012 Mike rated it 4 of 5 stars

More like a long New Yorker article than an actual book - by which I mean it's at points breezy, totally accessible, and engaging - the book by Friedman is something of a wonder. As a lover of Sci-Fi and Speculative Fiction I thought I'd find out what someone who gets paid for a living to think about the future thought would happen in the next 100 years. Keep in mind Friedman's entire focus is geo-political but in order to make that work he does have some interesting insights into the future of...more More like a long New Yorker article than an actual book - by which I mean it's at points breezy, totally accessible, and engaging - the book by Friedman is something of a wonder. As a lover of Sci-Fi and Speculative Fiction I thought I'd find out what someone who gets paid for a living to think about the future thought would happen in the next 100 years. Keep in mind Friedman's entire focus is geo-political but in order to make that work he does have some interesting insights into the future of culture and technology trends that will have huge impacts on who we are competing with over the next 100 years.

Amazing things I learned while reading this book:

1. The population explosion is rapidly coming to an end. In fact, in the next 30 years we will actually have a population shortage (see Japan's current problems now expand them to almost the entire planet).

2. The role of women in society, in terms of independence, affluence, and relative power, is greater than at any time in human history. We are living in unprecedented times in this regard and this trend is only going to increase. The impact of this on traditional roles in society (particularly marriage and family structure) and on more traditional cultures (i.e. the Middle East) will be profound.

3. The US will rule outer space with an iron fist and we will use that to control the planet.

4. Watch out for Mexico - no really, they may be our only real competitor over the long run.

5. China is not really a big deal in the long run. In fact, it may start falling apart in the next 10 years.

I won't go into great detail about any of those things but I think he makes compelling arguments for each. In fact, when I started reading the book his intense 'geography is everything' point of view seemed kind of myopic. However, since finishing this book I've already seen several of the trends he discussed playing out in the news (i.e. hypersonic jet tests by the US military, China's current scandals and economic woes, increasing tension with Russia, etc).

For anyone with a passing interest in the future I highly recommend this book. While at times the book dragged (and there is a part of me that thought "Yeah right." about his description of the mid-century world war) Friedman always seemed to correct the pacing and hook me right back in. I kind of devoured this book in about five days which, given my general lack of reading time, is pretty fast for me.

Over all, check it out if you enjoy musing about the future or if you want to sound really smart at the next family function.(less)

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May 30, 2012 Mike rated it 5 of 5 stars

Friedman is very knowledgeable about past and current events. He also reviews United States foreign policy objectives (over simplified) to destabilize regional powers such as Vietnam, Korea, Middle East, which is historically accurate. He uses this knowledge to calculate the next 100 years of geopolitical events. It is always easier to critique someone else's predictions than to make them yourself, with that in mind I will state areas that I agree and do not agree.

1. While Friedman is right that...more Friedman is very knowledgeable about past and current events. He also reviews United States foreign policy objectives (over simplified) to destabilize regional powers such as Vietnam, Korea, Middle East, which is historically accurate. He uses this knowledge to calculate the next 100 years of geopolitical events. It is always easier to critique someone else's predictions than to make them yourself, with that in mind I will state areas that I agree and do not agree.

1. While Friedman is right that population will decline in the industrialized world in the 21st century, I think he over estimates the rate of decline. For one, he under estimates the medical breakthroughs that will keep people alive longer. By 2040 heart disease, hypertension, arthritis, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and many types of cancers will be cured or on the verge of being cured. Average life expectancy should increase from high 70's to the high 90's. He also thinks we are going to have to pay people for immigration. I believe there will not be a shortage in demand for immigrants to the top economies in our life time. These two factors will prop up counties like Germany from loosing what Friedman predicts will be 1/4 of their population by 2050.

2. I think Friedman is correct that Turkey is and will continue to emerge as the regional power in the Middle East. Just as Mexican immigrants heading to the United States in the 2020's will support the aging baby boomer population, the same holds true for Turkish immigrants to Central and Western Europe. This will influence geopolitical events in Europe to side with further Turkish regional influence as Turkish immigrant political figures could lead Western European governments. Second, this book was written prior to the Arab Spring. In subsequent interviews Friedman suggests these uprisings will result in changing the leaders but not the regime, such as Egypt. However, I think the Arab Spring will result in a more united Middle East coalesced behind Turkey. As Friedman states this will not be in the United States best interests, and could lead to another war in the area much sooner than he predicts ~2030's.

I can also see Friedman's logic in Poland being the new South Korea. To that end, I think Friedman is wrong that North and South Korea will reunite in the next 30-40 years for the very reasons that he predicted: It wouldn't be in cold war Russia's best interest to have a strong Korean enemy to it's back, and they will continue to prop up the North Korean regime. If there were another cold war with Russia, I doubt that it would be over as quickly as Friedman predicts (~10 years). Human will power, ingenuity, and national pride force people into to doing things long after their cause is lost, think of the German army in Berlin, 1945. The Russians have vast natural resources, and as their economy exploits these resources and exports them to Europe and Asia they will be a regional superpower for along time, if not indefinitely.

I enjoyed Friedman's story telling of a futurist world war in the 2050's. At first read his prediction of 50,000 dead seemed very low, but then I thought of the medical technology of the day perhaps there would be 5 million maimed and wounded. Battle stars and fighting from the moon all seemed science fiction, but it is in the realm of possibilities, and a fun read. I think our anti-missile defense will be unimaginably good, which I hope would prevent any one from bombing United States in these future decades.

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Nov 10, 2011 Ryan rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: nonfic-future

Though this book has taken much flak from readers (and will no doubt get a lot wrong as the decades roll forward), I thought the first half was smartly argued. Friedman attempts to forecast the next century through his "history as a chess game" theory, which postulates that in global politics, as in chess, there may seem to be a limitless number of potential moves, but, in actuality, only a few are feasible at a given time. Thus, leaders are heavily constrained in their options by geopolitical t...more Though this book has taken much flak from readers (and will no doubt get a lot wrong as the decades roll forward), I thought the first half was smartly argued. Friedman attempts to forecast the next century through his "history as a chess game" theory, which postulates that in global politics, as in chess, there may seem to be a limitless number of potential moves, but, in actuality, only a few are feasible at a given time. Thus, leaders are heavily constrained in their options by geopolitical trends, economic cycles, demographic changes, and the moves made by other countries. Major shifts are driven less by the issues making the headlines at a given moment, and more by slow, long-term trends that build for years.

It's a simple (and perhaps simplistic) thesis, but Friedman uses it to generate some predictions that I found difficult to argue with. Consider:

* The US will remain the world's dominant military, economic, and cultural superpower for decades to come, if only because no one else will be capable of filling those shoes. And because no one else has such a powerful navy.
* The US is still a nation in its adolescence. We have a lot of drive and energy, but a lot of internal conflict and a tendency to overreact to problems. (I couldn't help but smile at that one.)
* China's spectacular present-day growth story will wane as the country suffers from underlying economic and demographic problems. Friedman draws parallels to Japan's apparent preeminence in the 1980s, and subsequent economic meltdown.
* Russia will struggle to assert itself, but will come apart
* Turkey will become the dominant Middle Eastern power
* As birthrates slow worldwide, industrialized countries will recruit immigrants, rather than seek to keep them out
* The boundaries between the US and Mexico will blur, as Mexico gains economic power and parts of the US southwest become increasingly Mexican in culture

However, I think the chess game analogy holds up only so far into the future, and the crystal ball becomes a lot shakier in part two. I'll give Friedman credit for doing his homework on future military technology (I happen to work at one the DARPA companies that gets a quick mention), but the elaborate narrative he sets up about a 2050 space and ground war between a Turkey-Japan alliance and the United States can only be read as entertaining sci-fi speculation, not a credible forecast of reality. And some of Friedman's general assumptions make less sense than others. For example, he speaks a lot of "historic enemies" when describing potential conflicts -- while I'm sure that serious wars won't go away, I have a difficult time believing that modern states will be anywhere near as likely to mobilize their citizens for large-scale conflicts with other states as they were in the 19th and 20th centuries, especially when those citizens will have many ways of communicating with each other directly. (Then again, I'm not Polish -- maybe they do worry about being overrun once again by Germany or Russia?)

Finally, there are a lot of subjects that Friedman just doesn't touch very much. How will technology change the picture? Could something like Kurzweil's "Singularity" unfold, with implications so sweeping and profound that they make all existing schools of thought, including geopolitics, obsolete? Consider the advances in computers and computer systems between 1970 and now, then think ahead to 2050. What happens to economies when robots take over a lot of jobs? And what about climate change, medicine, DNA engineering, religion, food and water shortages, and so forth? Or the unpredictable but game-changing factors that always occur in an increasingly complex world?

All in all, definitely worth a read for futurists, but not the only work you should have on your shelf.(less)

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Aug 25, 2011 Laura rated it 3 of 5 stars

My friend pointed out that I added this review to the wrong book! Same title, different author...so here's the REAL book I mean to review!!!

This was a fascinating exploration of predictions of America over the next hundred years. I don't agree with many of his predictions, but it was a fascinating thought experiment. He is very logical in his arguing, and I really enjoyed hearing his point of view.

The most engaging part of this book is that Weiner's theories directly oppose what many of today's...more

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Apr 19, 2011 Stig rated it 4 of 5 stars · review of another edition

An exciting book that almost reads like an alternate world science fiction novel. Friedman's main argument is that the United States will remain the most powerful nation in the world also in the 21st century. Current rivals like Russia and China will be swept away, and quite soon too, only to be replaced by new challengers such as Japan, Turkey and (later) Mexico.

So, how likely is this? Friedman admits that he will get details wrong, but believes that the overall direction of 21st century histor...more

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Jan 09, 2011 Diane rated it 4 of 5 stars

This book is based on an intriguing idea, that it is possible to predict the future based on geopolitical interests. The author explains changes in 20-year cycles in the past, and then proceeds to predict the next century. The book's greatest virtue is that it looks critically at a number of commonly-held beliefs about the future (particularly in regard to China's future power). The author does a good job of explaining why events generally do not always continue along a smooth path, and hence wh...more This book is based on an intriguing idea, that it is possible to predict the future based on geopolitical interests. The author explains changes in 20-year cycles in the past, and then proceeds to predict the next century. The book's greatest virtue is that it looks critically at a number of commonly-held beliefs about the future (particularly in regard to China's future power). The author does a good job of explaining why events generally do not always continue along a smooth path, and hence why extrapolation does not always work. I thought his anaylsis of the next 20 years sounded fairly realistic, but beyond that, it began to resemble science fiction. However, to his credit, the author acknowledges the problems of predicting that far out into the future, and says that his predictions will become less accurate as they go farther out. The main problems with his argument, in my view, are as follows:

1. The author dismisses the present economic crisis as something that will quickly pass, as other similar crises have in the past. However, he does not discuss the role of debt in creating the current crisis, nor does he discuss how a debt-fueled crisis might differ from other types of economic downturns. This is particularly striking in that he claims that Americans are in a period of high mobility, and will remain so for the next 20 years, but he doesn't talk about how being underwater on your mortgage may make it hard to maintain that mobility.

2. The author dismisses the role of religion by saying that modern economic arrangements will make more traditional ways of life, and hence more traditional values, obsolete. While I think he makes some good points about how technological and economic change will disrupt traditional values, I think he is much too self-assured about how well the modern world will deal with this. He seems to dismiss population contraction as not necessarily worth worrying about, which may be true, but more likely is not. Furthrmore, while he argues that traditionalists are fighting a rear-guard action that they can't win, he doesn't discuss how religious traditionalists (who generally have larger than average families) could significantly increase their percentage of an overall declining population. This is a significant issue for the future, particularly in democratic countries.

3. The author doesn't say anything at all about India's role in the next century. I think this is a tremendous oversight, as India is likely to play a major role and should not be overlooked so easily. I think it has a much better chance of being a signficiant player in the 21st century than does China, but the author hardly even mentions it.

Overall, I would say this is a worthwhile book with some important weaknesses.

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Sep 05, 2010 David rated it 3 of 5 stars

Shelves: futurism, political-science, non-fiction, fucked-up-shite

Hmmm...this is a difficult book to write about for a number of reasons. Let's take a Proustian moment and beat it to death with words.

The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years. This is the problem with futurism in general. Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasy...a brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs. proves this point. Though these get a few things right most of what they have...more Hmmm...this is a difficult book to write about for a number of reasons. Let's take a Proustian moment and beat it to death with words.

The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years. This is the problem with futurism in general. Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasy...a brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs. proves this point. Though these get a few things right most of what they have to say we now only laugh at.

What makes this book interesting is that it uses the hook of geopolitics (the study of the relationship among politics and geography, demography, and economics, especially with respect to the foreign policy of a nation). This is a subject I find very interesting because it is re-emerging as a legitimate area of study after years of being held in disrepute...or, at least, being considered a tad sketchy by many academics, intellectuals, and populist pundits. Geography is important and demography is very important.

However, Mr. Friedman starts losing me around 2040 and definitely loses me in his discussion of World War III (around abouts 2050)...he is essentially retelling WWII with a few geographic and technological shifts. And I do have some trouble about discounting China. I too suspect that China 'may' be a paper dragon but to sideline it in the way he has is very suspicious. I also believe his suggestion of how Mexican-Americans will think of themselves and behave at the end of the 21st century (especially since he leaves this issue unresolved) is more than a little naive.

What do I think of this book as a whole? Complicated. On the one hand, I do like, or at least appreciate, what he says, mostly, until the end of the 2030s but after that his ideas become almost laughable.

His acceptance and dismissal of Global Warming is very disconcerting and damages his thesis deeply. But his unwillingness to engage with environmental disasters that will have an enormous impact on geopolitics is also troubling. Disasters that 'could' occur over the next century are water shortages (inevitable), earthquakes along the Western U.S. coast (very probable) the unexploded volcano under Yellowstone national park (which could erupt taking most of North and Meso America with it), the evolution of diseases and the coming pandemics are just a few of the things that could throw his neat, rationally neat at least, thesis into hazard.

But, as an act of imaginative future historiography it is compelling and readable. It is something we should all be thinking about...if only as a side project. After all, the future is where all of our children and grandchildren will have to live and we should all be concerned about the world they will find themselves in once we have turned to dust.

So, in the end, I would recommend this book...but with the caveats you will have met above.

Not a boring book, but one that could have used better writing, a more comprehensive and analytical imagination, and a richer palette of variables. Still, all in all, a good attempt.

P.S.
The biggest problem with this book is that it sports a blurb by the hysterical, xenophobic Lou Dobbs...one of the strangest pundits out there today and a thoroughly degraded human being.(less)

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Jul 29, 2010 Ihancock rated it 4 of 5 stars

This book was a very interesting look at what the future could be. While depressing in that the author forecasts another world war, it is hard to believe that the author could be accurate that far into the future. It's funny though. I have begun to look at the news differently looking for possible references to Mr. Friedman's predictions of which there have been a couple which makes this book fun and thought provoking.

The first few chapters were very interesting as the author built his case. Th...more

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Jun 05, 2010 Dan Solomon rated it 2 of 5 stars · review of another edition

I made it through the first seven chapters in, like, four enthusiastic hours. He talks some convincing shit about history and what we can extrapolate from history in order to better understand what the future might hold. It's insightful and readable and very smart.

The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it. I couldn't figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up.

The reason the first sev...more

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Jun 02, 2010 Tbloxham rated it 4 of 5 stars

Honestly this book was more amusing science fiction than anything that felt like a real analysis of future events. The author obsessed over how vital it was to control the sea lanes, and then immediately predicts a variety of wars based on control of space showing how, in a world where space based operations are possible, control of the sea is meaningless. He then however immediately switches his predictions back to control of the seas ignoring his prediction for an even greater militarization o...more

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Feb 20, 2010 Ed rated it 3 of 5 stars

This book forms a useful balance to Martin Jacques book When China Rules the World. The best way to approach the future is via the Peter Schwartz (The Art of the Long View) strategy of developing 3-4 alternative scenarios about the future in order to 'learn from the future' about the present: both what it tells you about future trends and how to influence them. Jacques and Friedman provide two such scenarios, though I would like someone to add a scenario around environmental issues that neither...more

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Feb 14, 2010 Khalid rated it 3 of 5 stars

George Friedman is the chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies. Friedman offers a global tour of war and peace in the upcoming century. Friedman opens by taking the reader through the twentieth century at twenty-year intervals, showing how the concerns in any given time period are quickly forgotten and replaced by new concerns. This prepares the read...more

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Aug 27, 2009 Heidi rated it 1 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction, read2009

I chose to read this book because someone asked people's opinion on an email list. I couldn't buy into it enough to finish it.

First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman's analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.

Well I don't buy it. Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to 'prove' his geopolitical forecast. I kept thinking of other events he ignored. I...more I chose to read this book because someone asked people's opinion on an email list. I couldn't buy into it enough to finish it.

First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman's analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.

Well I don't buy it. Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to 'prove' his geopolitical forecast. I kept thinking of other events he ignored. I also kept thinking of a vastly different interpretation of those events. What it comes down to is, it's all his opinion, and since he picks and chooses what history we should look at to prove his points, his forecasts are built on sticks and cards.

Especially dubious are the premises that countries will act in their best, what, Machiavellian? interests, even when one person is essentially making those decisions. So George Bush Jr. acted the way he did because it was the next step for our country to take. Right.

You have to buy Reaganomics, you have to buy that this crash of 2008 was just a blip, and we still have prosperity for a real crash 20 some years from now, and nowhere does he take into account peak oil having anything to do with future economic woes...at least as far as I got.

An example. He says, "...these alliances and maneuvers are not difficult to predict. As I have said, they follow well-established patterns that have been ingrained in history for many centuries. What I am doing is seeing how traditional patterns play themselves out in the context of the twenty-first century." ...this after countless arguments that could conclude just the opposite of what he posited as givens.

He actually thinks Japan will rise again as a military power. Right. This would completely ignore the anti-war effect that the carpet-bombings of Tokyo and the atom bombs had on the country. I think the country has discovered what prosperity can be had by choosing not to have to build a military-industrial complex.

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Jul 26, 2009 Vicki rated it 3 of 5 stars

Shelves: audible

This was an interesting book in which the author attempts to predict what will happen in the world over the next 100 years. I wish I could give it 3.5 stars instead of 3.0 or 4.0, as I really was somewhere in between those ratings on this one.

Some of the predictions left me bummed out, particularly the one that space will inevitably be militarized. The author argues that the control of space will be just as crucial to being on top of the hierarchy as controlling the seas is now. It does make so...more

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Mar 21, 2012 Caro rated it 5 of 5 stars

I really had no idea how to rate this book. I enjoyed it immensely - didn't want to put it down (or, since I was listening to it rather than reading it, I didn't want to turn it off). However, I thought it had fundamental problems in reasoning and disagreed with most of its conclusions. However, since I enjoyed it so much and would love other people to read it so I can discuss it with them, I gave it 5 stars.

It's written by a George Friedman, who specialized in defense matters and founded a pri...more

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Jan 23, 2011 Ian Mchugh rated it 3 of 5 stars · review of another edition

I enjoyed this book as a flight of fantasy and I found myself agreeing with some of the predictions made by Mr. Friedman. I also found myself laughing out loud at some of the predictions too.

I can't figure out the purpose of this book in the first place, but if you go along with the premise that geopolitical processes (often) follow historical patterns then it's worth a read just to get a glimpse into Mr. Friedman's view of History. Over-simplistic in areas, and simply wrong in others, if you re...more

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Dec 16, 2009 Jason Teitelbaum rated it 4 of 5 stars

The Next 100 Years Review

The Next 100 Years by George Freidman was certainly a very interesting book. The title hits it on the nose; it was simply the next 100 years in our world from the eyes of Friedman. You might say-as did I-as you pick up this book that one man foreboding the 100 years isn’t valid and even quite insane. However, look at Freidman’s credentials as a geopolitical land founder of Stratfor. Then, read the author’s note as he tells the reader his intensions of this book and how...more The Next 100 Years Review

The Next 100 Years by George Freidman was certainly a very interesting book. The title hits it on the nose; it was simply the next 100 years in our world from the eyes of Friedman. You might say-as did I-as you pick up this book that one man foreboding the 100 years isn’t valid and even quite insane. However, look at Freidman’s credentials as a geopolitical land founder of Stratfor. Then, read the author’s note as he tells the reader his intensions of this book and how he isn’t getting everything perfect, nor is he predicting any details—all he wanted was his great grandchildren to look at his book 2100, and say, “Not half bad”—and you will certainly be intrigued as I was.
Overall, I feel a learned a great deal from this book, not just about the possible future, but how current events shape our world. Even though there were words and phrases I didn’t understand I was able to follow along attentively and interested. Throughout the work, Friedman writes as he is simply talking to his reader. I really enjoyed this style of writing because it made it easier to follow and understand for those who aren’t experts in geopolitics. On top of that, I thought the basis of the book was extremely appealing. It was very daring to write a book of events 100 years from now, but every prediction came with great explanation with historical and current support. However, as Friedman outlines the 20th century in the first chapter each 20 year interval of events seemed improbable, even impossible, but it did play out that way. Specifically, Friedman talks of early 20th war possibilities in Europe, “Indeed, European interdependence due to trade and investment was great that serious people were claiming that war become impossible.” (Friedman 1) History will tell us that this thinking was false and after 20 years the First World War devastated Europe and another, even more catastrophic war was soon going to tear it apart. As I was reading the book, I found myself not doubting his predictions in the slightest and even looking them as facts for the future. Friedman’s style and support for his predictions made his book a real winner.
This book requires very little current event and historical knowledge to understand. Everything is explained without any tangents from Freidman. With that in mind, I would recommend The Next 100 Years to anyone with any interest in his/her future. This book was a real winner. You’ll find it hard to put it down at any juncture of the book. I would have to give this book 5 stars out of a possible 5. It truly was a remarkable book from start to finish.

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Mar 24, 2013 Keith Bordeaux rated it 4 of 5 stars

Fascinating read. I tore through the first half of the book as Friedman covered geopolitical trends throughout history and looked in depth at the 100 years making up the 19th century. Very insightful and informative stuff. It's broadened my understanding of things like global population growth and it's projected decline and the effects of that on economic conditions globally, the 5 geopolitical goals that have directed U.S. foreign policy throughout our history, and how the U.S. has arrived at t...more

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Jan 01, 2012 Joseph rated it 3 of 5 stars

Shelves: political-science

Spoilers and whatnot below

A good history to start with and Friedman very much sticks to the belief that history will repeat itself with Poland as the new Germany in Europe trapped between Germany and Russia, two historic enemies. The US will treat it as it did West Germany. Turkey will rise as a Muslim power in the world. Poland is a bit of a stretch I feel. I would not have made Turkey a first choice, but Friedman backs up his argument pretty well, although he tends to forget that Turkey is ve...more

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Jan 04, 2011 Dan Kearns rated it 3 of 5 stars

Shelves: history

There are huge sections of this book that I'd give 1star, but I approve of the general project as most people miss the main point that history changes fast and in ways that will go against the conventional wisdom. Most people project the present indefinitely into the future, and it is indeed important to continually challenge that mistake. Mr. Friedman is just way too specific.

If one simply picks out the main geopolitical andsocial forces that Mr. Friedman is working with, there is
plenty to be g...more

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Jul 06, 2012 Georgy_kovacs rated it 3 of 5 stars

I was expecting more of this book. While the narrative is agile and quick, sometimes it felt like a sales pitch to join Friedman's Stratfor newsletter. His main points: The US will continue to be the main global power in the 21st century - but perhaps will encounter competition if Germany and Russia forge an alliance. Freedman also argues that China is inherently weak - and I tend to agree: the economic power of China is a house of cards because of its authoritarian regime. That lack of freedom...more

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Jan 20, 2011 Martina rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: war-modern-strategy

Although the topic is about geopolitics (really not my fave subject) but i honestly love reading this book. I appreciate Friedman's effort to make a prediction on what's going to happen in the next 100 years. Bet that's not an easy thing to do.

His view of the world in the next 90 years (since now we're already in the year 2011) was quite different from most geo-strategic experts/authors. For example, when most ppl predicted China as the new superpower, but Friedman predicted that Japan, Turkey,...more

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Jan 16, 2011 Shawn rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: history, non-fiction, political-thought

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers. To view it, click here.

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Apr 16, 2009 Lisa rated it 4 of 5 stars Recommends it for: Those interested in geopolitics and history...and the future state of the world.

Recommended to Lisa by: Darrell

Shelves: non-fiction

This intriguing book opened my eyes in several ways. The most basic definition of the book is that it is a forecast of how the world of people and politics will evolve in the twenty-first century. Who will vie for world power, and why. While he knows he has no crystal ball, the author is adept at analyzing past history (and explaining it!) and seeing patterns that replay at dependable intervals. This coupled with cultural and technological foresight leads to some interesting predictions. It is n...more

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About George Friedman

Dr. Friedman is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR. Since 1996 Dr. Friedman has driven the strategic vision guiding STRATFOR to global prominence in private geopolitical intelligence and forecasting.

Dr. Friedman is the author of The New York Times bestseller “The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been…and Where We’re Going,” which forecasts the major events and challenges that will test Am...more

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Books by George Friedman

The Next Decade: What the World Will Look Like

America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between the United States and Its Enemies

The Future of War: Power, Technology and American World Dominance in the Twenty-first Century

The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

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“Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.” — 4 people liked it

“The computer focuses ruthlessly on things that can be represented in numbers. In so doing, it seduces people into thinking that other aspects of knowledge are either unreal or unimportant. The computer treats reason as an instrument for achieving things, not for contemplating things. It narrows dramatically what we know and intended by reason.” — 1 person liked it

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