false 242472 19 Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, <i>The Black Swan</i>, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, <i>The Black Swan</i> is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below. <br><p> Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson<br><br><b>Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of <i>Wired</i> magazine and the author of <i>The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More</i>.</b><br><br> Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.<br><br> Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.<br><br> Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in <i>Fooled by Randomness,</i> an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in <i>The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable,</i> he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.<br><br> The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.<br><br> Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."<br><br> In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. <i>--Chris Anderson</i><br><br> 2157806 17 4 2007 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable total:2170|5:543|4:743|3:550|2:224|1:110| 2170 7895 4561 603 1 19 false false Sat Jan 12 18:24:19 -0800 2008 Sun Dec 30 12:09:54 -0800 2007 Sat Jan 12 18:24:01 -0800 2008 more...]]> 5 8 false false Mon Aug 11 00:00:00 -0700 2008 Fri Jul 18 19:43:26 -0700 2008 Mon Aug 11 14:48:00 -0700 2008
No, no, there are a number of problems with the book. A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short secti...more...]]> 3 7 false false Wed Jun 11 00:00:00 -0700 2008 Sat Apr 19 16:21:54 -0700 2008 Wed Jun 11 10:54:44 -0700 2008
This author is an a-hole. Full stop. He's dismissive, chronica...more...]]> 5 5 false false Wed Aug 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007 Thu Aug 09 15:22:28 -0700 2007 Wed Aug 22 18:28:36 -0700 2007 more...]]> 2 4 false false Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 -0800 2008 Fri Dec 21 09:07:34 -0800 2007 Fri Aug 29 20:16:47 -0700 2008 more...]]> 2 3 false false Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 -0800 2008 Thu Jul 17 08:22:49 -0700 2008 Fri Aug 08 08:44:49 -0700 2008
(A) The ideas

There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar. His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air ...more...]]> 3 5 false false Thu May 01 00:00:00 -0700 2008 Sat Jun 21 07:41:29 -0700 2008 Sat Jun 21 07:47:15 -0700 2008
Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent 300 pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions. The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think.

The author, Taleb, rails...more...]]> 0 3 false false Thu Feb 05 08:09:04 -0800 2009 Sun Mar 01 08:06:08 -0800 2009
*sampe bab 1*
Ide buku ini menarik.

Black Swan adalah sebuah metafora yang pertama saya pahami dari kajian filsafat ilmu dulu sewaktu kuliah. Karl Raimun...more...]]> 1 3 false false Tue Apr 08 00:00:00 -0700 2008 Sat Mar 08 13:25:54 -0800 2008 Tue Apr 08 23:26:45 -0700 2008 more...]]> 1 2 false false Sun Dec 09 19:00:17 -0800 2007 Sun Dec 09 19:00:17 -0800 2007 more...]]> 2 2 false false Fri Jun 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007 Mon Nov 26 10:53:19 -0800 2007 Mon Nov 26 11:33:23 -0800 2007
Taleb, who I presume can understand Arabic at its most elementary level, regularly refers to Muslims as \"Moslems,\" which irritates me to no end.

The book became tedious and self-contradictory at times, an...more...]]> 4 2 false false Tue May 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007 Sun May 27 13:09:23 -0700 2007 Sun May 27 13:13:36 -0700 2007
This is one of those “must read” books that many more people will claim to have read than will actually slog through. Like with Fooled by Randomness, Taleb takes many more pages than necessary to get his important points across. Those points are that we have incredibl...more...]]> 2 2 false false Fri Jan 25 13:53:39 -0800 2008 Fri May 18 14:53:45 -0700 2007 Fri Dec 28 10:32:49 -0800 2007
Taleb makes a strong case for his theory of black swans. It's an interesting and valuable theory but it's also one that could be communicated in a short conversation and does not need a whole book to contain it.
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The basic idea behind the book is th...more...]]> 2 3 false false Sat Aug 23 20:02:56 -0700 2008 Sat Aug 23 20:03:25 -0700 2008 4 1 false false Sun Jun 01 00:00:00 -0700 2008 Wed Jun 18 14:19:07 -0700 2008 Wed Jun 18 14:19:07 -0700 2008
...more...]]> 3 1 false false Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007 Thu Jul 26 13:16:02 -0700 2007 Fri Jul 27 06:17:33 -0700 2007 more...]]> 1 1 false false Sun Mar 15 06:58:57 -0700 2009 Sun Mar 15 07:02:18 -0700 2009 more...]]> 2 1 false false Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 -0800 2007 Thu Nov 29 09:41:20 -0800 2007 Tue Dec 04 09:21:54 -0800 2007 more...]]> 3 1 false false Sun Oct 25 00:00:00 -0700 2009 Thu Oct 01 09:51:20 -0700 2009 Mon Nov 23 10:21:57 -0800 2009
Somewhere in his development someone obviously convinced him that he could only get his point across by telling stories, and this simplistic ...more...]]> http://www.goodreads.com/book_link/follow/8?book_id=5226454