Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do

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Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do

3.58 of 5 stars 3.58 · rating details · 104 ratings · 24 reviews

On the night of the 2000 presidential election, Americans sat riveted in front of their televisions as polling results divided the nation's map into red and blue states. Since then the color divide has become a symbol of a culture war that thrives on stereotypes--pickup-driving red-state Republicans who vote based on God, guns, and gays; and elitist, latte-sipping blue-sta...more On the night of the 2000 presidential election, Americans sat riveted in front of their televisions as polling results divided the nation's map into red and blue states. Since then the color divide has become a symbol of a culture war that thrives on stereotypes--pickup-driving red-state Republicans who vote based on God, guns, and gays; and elitist, latte-sipping blue-state Democrats who are woefully out of touch with heartland values. "Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State" debunks these and other political myths.

With wit and prodigious number crunching, Andrew Gelman gets to the bottom of why Democrats win elections in wealthy states while Republicans get the votes of richer voters, how the two parties have become ideologically polarized, and other issues. Gelman uses eye-opening, easy-to-read graphics to unravel the mystifying patterns of recent voting, and in doing so paints a vivid portrait of the regional differences that drive American politics. He demonstrates in the plainest possible terms how the real culture war is being waged among affluent Democrats and Republicans, not between the haves and have-nots; how religion matters for higher-income voters; how the rich-poor divide is greater in red not blue states--and much more.

"Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State" is a must-read for anyone seeking to make sense of today's fractured American political landscape.

Myths and facts about the red and the blue:

"Myth: The rich vote based on economics, the poor vote "God, guns, and gays.""
Fact: Church attendance predicts Republican voting much more among rich than poor.

"Myth: A political divide exists between working-class "red America" and rich "blue America.""
Fact: Within any state, more rich people vote Republican. The real divide is between higher-income voters in red and blue states.

"Myth: Rich people vote for the Democrats."
Fact: George W. Bush won more than 60 percent of high-income voters.

"Myth: Religion is particularly divisive in American politics."
Fact: Religious and secular voters differ no more in America than in France, Germany, Sweden, and many other European countries.(less)

Hardcover, 272 pages

Published July 21st 2008 by Princeton University Press (first published 2008)

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Dec 08, 2008 Darrenglass rated it 4 of 5 stars

The first thing that comes to mind when I try to review this book is an analogy: Gelman's book is to Thomas Frank's Whats The Matter With Kansas as Baseball Prospectus is to the writings of Buzz Bissinger.

For those of you not geeky in all the same ways that I am, this basically just means that Gelman has decided to ignore much of the conventional wisdom of political and demographic thinking and instead look at hard cold facts and statistics about how people actually vote and try to construct a...more

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Dec 05, 2008 Jack rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: politics, nonfiction

Gelman, et. al., offer the political science version of pop-social science, in the Gladwell-Freakonomics vein. They do a fine job, though not quite reaching the captivating levels of Gladwell, etc.

Since the 2000 election and the near dead even split in the electorate, the "red-blue" divide has captivated politicos. The blue states voted for Gore and Kerry, and the red states put George W. Bush in the White House. What has amazed a few people is the fact that the poor states are the red states,...more Gelman, et. al., offer the political science version of pop-social science, in the Gladwell-Freakonomics vein. They do a fine job, though not quite reaching the captivating levels of Gladwell, etc.

Since the 2000 election and the near dead even split in the electorate, the "red-blue" divide has captivated politicos. The blue states voted for Gore and Kerry, and the red states put George W. Bush in the White House. What has amazed a few people is the fact that the poor states are the red states, which seemed to fly in the face of the storyline that the poor normally vote Democratic. Why do red-poor states - those states that actually take more money from the federal government than their inhabitants pay towards the federal government - vote Republican? Some, like Thomas Frank in "What's the Matter with Kansas?," suggested that poor folks were suckered into voting Republican because Party leaders hyped social issues (abortion, gay marriage) to get the poor on board, all the while ensuring tax cuts were passed for the benefit of the wealthy. It is intriguing to note that after the better part of 30 years of time in the White House, Republicans really haven't done a great job of passing conservative social legislation, but have done a fine job with tax cuts that have largely benefited the wealthy (the wealthy do, of course, pay most of the taxes). Well, Gelman and the rest rebut Frank by pointing out that the poor do indeed - in all states - vote more for the Democratic Party than do the wealthy. Again, that is the case even in red states. Granted, there is probably a higher proportion of poor folks in red states voting Republican than they do in blue states, but even in red states the poor are more likely to vote Democratic. It's the WEALTHY who are causing the red-blue divide. That is, the wealthy are more likely to defect from their financial interests, and they do so, obviously, in the blue states. Furthermore, it is the wealthy who are arguing over social policy, and the poor are sticking to their economic interests. Most importantly for the Democratic Party, Gelman and friends point out that, contrary to the arguments of the left, Democrats would not improve electoral outcomes by becoming more liberal. Doing so will only cause more moderates to leave the Democratic Party. Still, as any Democrat has should have learned, the winning strategy is not always the chosen strategy.

Regardless, "Red State, Blue State..." is an easy to read book with plenty of citations for any reader who wants to dig deeper into the theory, methodology, and articles of serious public opinion and voting behavior scholarship.

My biggest complaints about the book aren't too big. First, the early chapters were particularly choppy and almost read as cut-and-paste efforts. Thankfully the nuggets were interesting, but the overall themes were elusive. Second, for a short book, the price is a bit steep. Don't get me wrong: I love an easy to read short book, but don't charge me a big book price for it. Otherwise, a fine job on an important issue, which may be a little less relevant now with President-elect Obama's impressive 2008 victory. A few missteps by him, however, and we're right back to the 49-49 split with the increased likelihood of red state led Republican victories. (less)

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Nov 18, 2012 Christopher David rated it 3 of 5 stars

Note: this is review of how the book fared as a pedagogical tool for one class.

I assigned this book to an undergraduate Political Science Research Methods class as a) a supplement to the material covered in the textbook; and b) an ongoing example to which we could refer back to, and a salient one at that, given the class's coincidence with the 2012 Presidential election.

When we had finished the book I asked my students what they thought of the book. They by and large liked the book but thought t...more

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Jun 12, 2011 Amber rated it 4 of 5 stars

This is an interesting, analytical book that debunks the "What's the Matter with Kansas?" myth, among others. Using lots of graphs that are easy to understand but also convey a lot of information, the author shows how household income, state income levels, religion, and voting habits interact.

Despite much political writing about latte-sipping Democrats, the data shows that high-income people (the author does not distinguish between income and wealth, which is a personal pet peeve of mine but non...more This is an interesting, analytical book that debunks the "What's the Matter with Kansas?" myth, among others. Using lots of graphs that are easy to understand but also convey a lot of information, the author shows how household income, state income levels, religion, and voting habits interact.

Despite much political writing about latte-sipping Democrats, the data shows that high-income people (the author does not distinguish between income and wealth, which is a personal pet peeve of mine but nonetheless a small problem in an otherwise interesting book) in all states are more likely to vote Republican than are low- or middle-income people in the same state. What differs between states is to some extent a) the intercept (how likely low-income people are to vote Republican) and especially b) the slope of the line--how differently high-income people vote relative to low-income people in that state. Turns out, the slope is much higher in poorer states.

The evidence also suggests that the popular perception of the political differences between states--and especially, the salience of so-called "culture war" issues--mostly reflects how high-income people vote, rather than all people (unsurprising given that journalists' social circle is pretty exclusively comprised of high-income people). Also, interestingly, in low-income states, high-income people are more religious, whereas the opposite is true in higher-income states.

...all in all, this book validated what I have experienced living in Texas--which is that among our high-income colleagues and acquaintances (and the author defines this based on thirds, so a household with income of more than $75,000 is high income), our lack of religious belief, and liberalism on social issues, is very idiosyncratic.

I was familiar with some of this analysis based on reading the author's blog for a few months, but unlike some other books I have read, the book contains enough detail to make it worth reading even if you are a regular reader of his blog.(less)

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May 26, 2011 Zach Vaughn rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction, politics

Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State by Andrew Gelman is a good book on voter behaviour. Mr Gelman uses income statistics, as well as survey results, to explain the differences in voting patterns between red and blue states on the electoral college maps. In sum, income differences are an important factor in red states, where rich voters overwhelmingly support the Republican Party and poor voters generally support the Democratic Party. In blue states, both poor voters and rich voters are...more

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Dec 16, 2010 Dan Smee rated it 4 of 5 stars

Andrew Gelman and colleagues (Gelman, Park, Shor, Baumi, & Cortina, 2008) use a method of number crunching, to blast the political myths of the great divide. Gelman et al., examine another stereotype: that the rich vote Republican and the poor Democrat. In this vein, rich states should be Republican and poor states Democrats. But, these authors point out the paradox, that in both the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections, Democrats captured the richer Northeaster and West Coast States, while...more

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Feb 14, 2013 Sanjiv Sarwate rated it 2 of 5 stars

The big criticism I have of this book is something that is not really its fault at all. This book was written in 2008, in the midst of the campaign, as there is a reference to the Jeremiah Wright controversy, but none to the election results. Two election cycles have passed since then, two election cycles that are historically consequential because they involve the first black President. I wonder if the conclusions the authors reach are in need of revision based on the outcomes of these two elec...more

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Oct 20, 2011 Doug Stich rated it 1 of 5 stars

Incredibly boring. Reading this was a struggle. I didn't even finish the thing because it was torturous. Halfway through it's already clear that while Americans like to label everything (and everyone) and assume they know what it's all about based on stereotypes, those assumptions are not always true. After propping my eyelids open a la A Clockwork Orange to read the meandering and pointless graphs and charts and numbers, the bottom line is: We'd like to be able to predict how rich people, poor...more

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Apr 16, 2013 Louise rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: us-politics

Andrew Gelman's thesis shouldn't surprise anyone who critically follows the news. He begins with the oft repeated media phrase, "limosine liberal", and goes on to demonstrate how reliably those with high incomes and those with low incomes vote Republican and Democratic respectively. The same correlation holds for religion.

There is some interesting material on how the correlations are different in other countries and in Mexico how quickly things can change.

The value of this book is that it provid...more

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Feb 14, 2013 Asa Wilks rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: current-nonfiction

I was familiar with the material because the author was a former professor of mine who used the raw data as an example in a stats modeling class. The title of the course lecture was "Whats the matter with Connecticut?". Having already read "Whats the matter with Kansas?" before taking this class / reading this book, I admit I felt a little silly for not having immediately thought about this.

The takeaway is simple, completely intuitive, and rock solid. Yet it is something that gets fucked up by p...more

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Nov 18, 2011 Mike Edwards rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: current-events, pop-social-science, political-science, usa

Gelman identifies some very interesting trends in voting behavior. He notes that rich states tend to vote Democrat and poor states tend to vote Republican--this isn't surprising. What is surprising is that rich people in each of those states tend to vote the other way; that is, rich people in Red States tend to vote Democrat, while rich people in Blue states tend to vote Republican. It's an incredibly potent observation. Gelman then looks at what impact this has on our politics, and speculates a...more

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Apr 17, 2009 Monte rated it 2 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction

Attempting to explain 'why Americans vote the way they do,' Gelman and a group of fellow political scientists crunch numbers and draw graphs, arriving at a picture that refutes the influential one drawn by Thomas Frank, in What's the Matter with Kansas?, of poor red-staters voting Republican against their economic interests. Instead, Gelman persuasively argues, the poor in both red states and blue still mostly vote Democratic, and the rich, nationally speaking, overwhelmingly vote Republican. --...more Attempting to explain 'why Americans vote the way they do,' Gelman and a group of fellow political scientists crunch numbers and draw graphs, arriving at a picture that refutes the influential one drawn by Thomas Frank, in What's the Matter with Kansas?, of poor red-staters voting Republican against their economic interests. Instead, Gelman persuasively argues, the poor in both red states and blue still mostly vote Democratic, and the rich, nationally speaking, overwhelmingly vote Republican. -- Leo Carey The New Yorker The thesis of this topical book is that how Americans vote depends on where they live as well as who they are. Gelman makes this argument clearly and repeatedly in colloquial language, in black and white graphics and in maps coloured red and blue... A major strength of the book is that it shows the importance of changes in America in the past half century. Times Higher Education The most creative analyses in Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State use Gelman's multilevel methods. But the technical background is nearly invisible: Here there are no equations and few numbers--rather, one finds dozens of revealing graphics, all of which are very clear. The book is unusual in aiming to enlighten the general lay reader through a step-by-step analysis, not merely to engage in a debate with other political scientists. Through a clear and crisp writing style, it quotes and refutes many widespread views of journalists and political pundits, even as it builds on the political science literature ... this fun-to-read book may become a minor classic. -- Terry Nichols Clark and Christopher Graziul Science The aim of this book, Mr. Gelman tells us, is to debunk the media's oversimplified account of what happened in red and blue states in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Writing in the same spirit as Freakonomics authors Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, Mr. Gelman sets out to 'correct' the received wisdom... This is the Freakonomics-style analysis that every candidate and campaign consultant should read. -- Robert Sommer New York Observer According to Gelman, much of the analysts' glib assessments is misguided and does little to advance our understanding of why Americans have voted as they have. He crunched U.S. survey and election data as far back as 1952 ... and discovered that the economic status of individuals and the economic conditions of each state as a whole lead to two different conclusions: on the one hand, the less wealthy a voter is, the more likely the voter is to cast a ballot for a Democrat; the better-off the voter, the more likely he or she is to vote Republican. Yet states with a higher average income are more likely to support a Democratic presidential candidate... This is a fascinating, well-written, and thoroughly researched work that deserves a wide audience. Highly recommended for all libraries. -- Thomas J. Baldino Library Journal Commentators on both the left (Thomas Frank) and the right (David Brooks) have theorized about why working-class Kansas farmers and latte-sipping Maryland suburbanites vote against their economic interests. Gelman says, 'Both sides on this argument are trying too hard to explain something that's simply not true.' The real paradox, he says, is that while rich states lean Democratic, rich people generally vote Republican; while poor states lean Republican, poor people generally vote Democratic. -- Alan Cooperman Washington Post Book World Looking at the numbers as far back as 1952, this book debunks much of what we think we know about voting trends. Buy one today! Amuse your friends! Annoy your enemies! Bring cocktail party conversations to a grinding halt. -- Susan Campbell The Hartford Courant Andrew Gelman's Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State can be summed up with extreme concision: Rich people vote Republican, but rich states vote Democratic. Poor people vote Democratic, but poor states vote Republican. That's pretty weird. But to Gelman, it's worse than weird. It's unknown... At the most basic level, this is an argument for complexity. (less)

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Apr 07, 2013 Melissa rated it 2 of 5 stars

This book frustrated me because I feel like at this point, the data is out of date (it was published in 2007 with an Afterword about the 2008 election). It's great for true "political science" buffs who love the graphs and numbers of all Gelman's research. As a mere politics buff, I was more interested in the analysis, but this book definitely emphasized the numbers.

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Jun 28, 2011 C. Web. rated it 5 of 5 stars

Thank You Mr. Andrew Gelman.

This book smashes every voting stereotype out there and will truly enlighten any reader about how Americans actually vote. It makes the talking heads on television sound dumber. As elitist as it may sound I honestly wouldn't take anyone's opinion on why people vote for a certain party seriously if they have not read this book.

This book makes the reader ask more questions at its conclusion after answering millions. Simply amazing and amusing to read.

Backed up with t...more

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Mar 07, 2009 Adam rated it 4 of 5 stars

Some nice analysis of voting patterns in the U.S. over the past several decades, finding the relationship between income, religion, geography, etc. and election results. Should squash the silly notion that the Democrats are the rich "elites."

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Jul 11, 2009 Christa Avampato rated it 2 of 5 stars

I was disappointed into this book. After a couple hundred pages of stats, the conclusion is that you can't trust stereotypes of states to predict individual voting choices. Seems like a whole lot of analysis for very little new insight.

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Nov 04, 2012 David rated it 5 of 5 stars

Very exciting, data oriented look at American politics. It's amazing how some solid data can completely undermine perfectly good characterizations. Read this before you tell me "what's the matter with Kansas." I don't necessarily recommend the whole book, but the first few and the final chapter on the 2008 election are seminal.

I do wish there was more discussion of the underlying data sources (exit polls) and the limitations. It seems Gelman, who is usually great about discussing uncertainty, r...more

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Feb 23, 2009 Gerald is currently reading it

Gelman is using open-source software (Project R) for all his analyses and graphs, which are quite interesting.

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Mar 03, 2010 Robin rated it 3 of 5 stars

If you are a voting American, you should read this book just to get a clearer picture of elections.

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Jan 10, 2009 Tammy rated it 2 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction

Not as readable or "enlightening" as I was hoping it would be. Lots of charts and figures repeated and the same general conclusion that people really don't vote just by wealth or education as some claim, but no real attempt at explanation of why this might be.

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Mar 13, 2011 Ben Dobbins rated it 5 of 5 stars

Great, interesting insight into voting with enough math to back up the intrigue.

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Jan 01, 2009 Jeremy rated it 3 of 5 stars

The book had lots of detailed data, but it was a little too dry for reading on the bus. A little too much review of the raw data and not enough analysis to satisfy me. The basic argument about how pundits misunderstood red state vs. blue state was easy to make, but the book pursued it at length. Some of the key observations seemed a little obvious.

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Nov 10, 2008 Hannah marked it as to-read

Shelves: politics, research-methods

I know, this is probably going to be out of date given what happened on Tuesday. But it was on a list of books that are examples of graphical excellence, so I'm really just interested in looking at the pictures.

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May 05, 2009 Jarrod rated it 5 of 5 stars

All books with a plethora of graphs and tables score high in my world. I think of note is the little celebrated fact that the book demonstrates that despite our problems our system of government has a process that works to represent the will of the people.

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Jun 16, 2013 Els1008 marked it as to-read

Jun 13, 2013 Ryan added it

Jun 13, 2013 Jeremy rated it 4 of 5 stars

Jun 10, 2013 Ej Scarillo rated it 5 of 5 stars

Jun 09, 2013 Cody Taylor marked it as to-read

Shelves: current-affairs, public-intellectual, summer-reading

Jun 06, 2013 Alison Knappett marked it as to-read

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