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The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History
The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy v...more
Hardcover, 288 pages
Published
January 6th 2009
by Free Press
(first published December 30th 2008)
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Opportunistic investment guide
This book is a bold attempt to predict not only the next several decades, but also the next several centuries – at one point, author Harry S. Dent prognosticates about the year 2400. As he mentions, however, he did predict Japan’s 1990s economic slump and the U.S. boom that began in 1998. If you are a believer, take cover, because now Dent’s predictions are not so rosy. He foresees a major depression followed by a long period of slow growth. He is singing with the g...more
This book is a bold attempt to predict not only the next several decades, but also the next several centuries – at one point, author Harry S. Dent prognosticates about the year 2400. As he mentions, however, he did predict Japan’s 1990s economic slump and the U.S. boom that began in 1998. If you are a believer, take cover, because now Dent’s predictions are not so rosy. He foresees a major depression followed by a long period of slow growth. He is singing with the g...more
I found this book a bit tedious and boring. Loaded with charts and way too many references to his web site, where is wants to charge you $299.00 for updates!
Some of this already seems outdated. I believe we are in a much deeper recession now than he claims. He does predict things will get worse in the near term. From now to mid 2010, he recommends investors stick to cash, money market funds, safe currencies, commodities and energy stocks. He says to stop mortgaging the house to put the kids thr...more
Some of this already seems outdated. I believe we are in a much deeper recession now than he claims. He does predict things will get worse in the near term. From now to mid 2010, he recommends investors stick to cash, money market funds, safe currencies, commodities and energy stocks. He says to stop mortgaging the house to put the kids thr...more
If you can get past the shameless self-promotion and ignore the horrendous writing, The Great Depression Ahead is - dare I say! - interesting. Dent argues that markets are tied to somewhat predictable demographic trends spanning a few months to 5,000 years. Understand where we are in the historic cycles and you can prosper in good times and bad. Or superbad, as we're in now due to massive bubbles in stocks, real estate, and commodities that have peaked and are deflating simultaneously.
As he remi...more
As he remi...more
This book is hot here in the Tampa Florida area.
I have not read the authors previous books.
This one is a cross between plugs for his website and his past books.
However that said, he sure has a past that seems to be paved with good predictions as well as some well grounded stats for his future predictions.
His predictions are very dire.
He also tells individuals and small businesses what to do to survive.
Not everyone in the country can make use of his individual advice though.
For those folks, get a...more
I have not read the authors previous books.
This one is a cross between plugs for his website and his past books.
However that said, he sure has a past that seems to be paved with good predictions as well as some well grounded stats for his future predictions.
His predictions are very dire.
He also tells individuals and small businesses what to do to survive.
Not everyone in the country can make use of his individual advice though.
For those folks, get a...more
Everything follows some kind of cycles. I think that this is what Harry S. Dent, Jr. is saying in this book, The Great Depression Ahead. The economic cycle, innovation cycle, technology advancement cycle, weather cycle, etc. Then all these cycles contribute to our livelihood. The turnaround of each could be years to decades (e.g., economic, depending on the country or industry), decades to centuries (e.g., innovation and technology, e.g., industrial revolution or computer age) or centuries to mi...more
I liked it. This book will not bring much sunshine to your day, but it will bring a wealth of fundamental fact to the table. Mr. Dent's approach to forecasting the future is grounded solidly in patterns of the past, and in THAT I am a great believer. He is exhaustive in the historical detail, and presents a very convincing case for the many interleaved cycles that mark the cadence of mankind's progress -- economic, demographic, revolutionary, geopolitical, migrational, to name a few. Today just...more
According to Terry Savage, personal finance columnist of the Chicago Sun-Times, this guy was virtually alone in forecasting the great boom of the 90s in his 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead." In that earlier book, he also forecast that based on long-term economic trends, the US would enter a recession in 2008, which would last until 2022/23. While I'm hoping he's wrong on the length of this depression, it makes me want to read his new book, actually entitled "The Great Depression Ahead." I'm not...more
I stopped reading this book partway through because it wasn't good.
Although I believe there is an extremely serious economic downturn imminent, this book's premise is not the reason why. The author attempts to tie everything into wave analysis, some of which appear fabricated out of thin air. Demographics are important and can follow some cyclical trends, but this book is all over the place and completely incoherent. There are so many predictions for given years for various wave patterns of vary...more
Although I believe there is an extremely serious economic downturn imminent, this book's premise is not the reason why. The author attempts to tie everything into wave analysis, some of which appear fabricated out of thin air. Demographics are important and can follow some cyclical trends, but this book is all over the place and completely incoherent. There are so many predictions for given years for various wave patterns of vary...more
This book will give you many interesting things to consider as you plan your investing strategy for the coming years. The demographic trends provide a glimpse into the future, and I believe he is on the right track. I wouldn't take anything as absolute, and adjustments will need to be made, but this is a start. Overall, I found it to be thought provoking about the possibilities ahead.
The book also provides a web page where you can sign up for an email newsletter for updates as the economic condi...more
The book also provides a web page where you can sign up for an email newsletter for updates as the economic condi...more
Awkward so far, reads like a text version of an infomercial with bolded statements of even bolder claims. When someone tries so hard to convince me that they're right, I get the sense that even they suspect they may be wrong. I'm only starting though; I will give it a chance. The concept seems interesting but also simplistic - I wonder how one can bank on finances being so perfectly cyclical when so many of the factors regulating the system have undergone so many changes.
An interesting study in cyclical analysis.
Some cyclical trends discussed in the book definitely have strong influence on the markets - especially demography.
The book presents a large number of various interweaving trends with different lengths. It signals that these trends influence each other but does not present a framework for analyzing such interdependence.
In result it is hard to say which trend will dominate in a given moment. Also a new unexpected trend may emerge and totally change the s...more
Some cyclical trends discussed in the book definitely have strong influence on the markets - especially demography.
The book presents a large number of various interweaving trends with different lengths. It signals that these trends influence each other but does not present a framework for analyzing such interdependence.
In result it is hard to say which trend will dominate in a given moment. Also a new unexpected trend may emerge and totally change the s...more
Years ahead of time, he predicted the 2009 (or late 2008) dip based on his "consumer spending" cycle analysis from his book "Roaring 2000's" that I also enjoyed years ago. He feels a World War may happen in the 2020's due to cyclical historical patterns. Hmmmmm. His estimates in the book are off due to a few things, but Obama's "stimulus package" is a biggie. If you factor in this book with his web site for more current updates, that would be a good start. International investing is riskier than...more
Dent's use of demography to predict inflection points in the economy makes a lot of intuitive sense to me. I remember in a prior job I did a lot of time series forecasting and regressions, and I always asked myself how does this stuff ever pick up the inflection point. Of course, it doesn't and that's the problem. Dent uses demography to predict when birth cohorts start their biggest years of spending to predict growth in the economy. That's the bad news, however. The baby boomers have peaked an...more
The book (with it's charts and graphs and at-a-glance features) would be even better than the audio recording (read by the author) which I listened to while driving to and from work. I found the book to be interesting and informative. See http://www.hsdent.com/ or google the author for youtube feeds. Using demographic data from around the world he predicts buying and spending trends to 2080. Very interesting. Very persuasive.
Okay, When I say I read it, I'm lying. I skimmed it. Enough to know that I'm not enough there with investing and economics to understand it well--at least not without some deep, quiet study. But, it was still interesting. Harry S. Dent uses history and economic patterns to predict future economic trends. He has had a measure of success. He also has many who disagree with his predictions and assumptions. If I had a greater understanding of economics (and a quieter house in which to concentrate),...more
Some good points, supported by his charts but seems just about as much a commercial for his newsletter,etc. as it is to convey information. Skim the book for sections of interest, or go to his website and get a slide show version of it in about an hour. Some good 'bullets' in a number of chapters to make note of. It is a bit of a tedious read.
In some sense he makes a good case for the depression.
If he is correct the we are in for a very wild ride.
And then we know that forecasters have a very bad reputation for not getting it right.
So what do we do? "Prepare for the worst, to some degree and hope like hell that he is wrong"
If he is correct the we are in for a very wild ride.
And then we know that forecasters have a very bad reputation for not getting it right.
So what do we do? "Prepare for the worst, to some degree and hope like hell that he is wrong"
I know Harry Dent.
He was a most positive guy in the nineties and early 2000s.
It is a good historical read...but I just can't get my head around forecasts that are solely based on demographics...We are all older, we stop buying things and that's why there will be a depression.
This is a most frightening book.
Not because the author foresees a depression sometime in 2010.
No, if he had written the book a 2 years earlier...everything he writes about...seems to have come true in 2008!
I will have a glas...more
He was a most positive guy in the nineties and early 2000s.
It is a good historical read...but I just can't get my head around forecasts that are solely based on demographics...We are all older, we stop buying things and that's why there will be a depression.
This is a most frightening book.
Not because the author foresees a depression sometime in 2010.
No, if he had written the book a 2 years earlier...everything he writes about...seems to have come true in 2008!
I will have a glas...more
Demographics are destiny, that much I buy. And the author's analysis of global and regional demographic trends was fascinating. But the rest of the book had too much crystal-ball-gazing and unsubstantiated assertions for my taste. Some of the "cycles" that the author cites are highly questionable and stretch the limits of credibility -- for instance, he thinks that, based on the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing and 9/11 attacks, there is a 8-9 year cycle for major terrorist attacks and we should...more
Though probably not terribly more accurate than the reading of entrails, this earnest exploration of the likely effects of intersecting secular trends, all centered around demographics, provides a possibly useful framework against which to weigh ones own view of likely future scenarios.
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Extremely technical discussion about not only the depression the author sees coming, but the numbers behind his reasoning. I've seen Mr. Dent interviewed several times and is a compelling figure, but I hope to God he's wrong.
I have looked at the coming crash (much deeper than what has happened so far), which I see as unavoidable, from many perspectives. This is a forecast based almost exclusively on demographic trends. It is well worth the read.
Makes a strong argument about the power of demographics. Hard to ignore the predictions that have come to fruition while being laughed at by the financial experts ;-)
From the man who has written a lot about the economy and trends...he says this is only the beginning and we won't get out of the recession/depression for a long while...artifical help can't get us out of the hole we are in...and he basis this on history and trends.
Jun 23, 2009
Cindy
added it
Dent lays out how things will happen and why. A great book for understanding the market fluctuations and inflation/deflation to come. Highly recommend.
Reading it Now
scary but probably very informative of what our country can expect in regards to the economy in the years ahead.
scary but probably very informative of what our country can expect in regards to the economy in the years ahead.
Fascinating application of demographics to economics. Although most of the dates mentioned have turned out to be wrong (it's 2013 and we still didn't have the depression), I still think he onto something with his methods. I feel like listening to this book changed my brain, if that makes any sense.
Not the best book I've read, but really interesting predictions on the upcoming years. I'm pretty sure Dent is right-on with the economy tanking. But things wouldn't be interesting if we could see the future, right?
Aug 08, 2009
Tami
is currently reading it
Just started it but expect to polish off some key financial investment moves for the remainder of this year and many to come...
A somewhat pessimistic view of the current economic recession. I found it worth reading for a contrarian point of view.
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