One of the world's leading futurists--who has served as a consultant to clients as diverse as Volvo and the White House--presents a revolutionary g...
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Jun 17, 2007
Infromsea
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I hate not finishing a book. I’ve only “not finished” three or four books in my life, this book really tested me to the end. It’s on the Navy recommended reading list so I pulled it down and took it for a spin. Let me sum it up for you: think of all possibilities and what you would do should those possibilities come to light. Honestly, that’s it. Don’t waste you time, move on. There is a great deal of attempting to back up the art of looking forward and thinking of all possibilities with data bu
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Jan 29, 2012
Michael
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I've been calling myself a futurist for the past five years, and for five years, I've been lying. But no longer, because I've read this book, which is every bit as a thought-provoking as Science Fiction for Prototyping proved disappointing. Peter Schwartz is one of the founders of the Global Business Network consulting firm, and honed his skills designing scenarios for Shell Oil in the 1980s. In The Art of the Long View, he makes a strong case for the utility of scenario planning, explains how t
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Aug 25, 2011
Jill
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It's easy for a book published in 1991 to feel dated, especially when the second last chapter of the book is titled "The World in 2005: Three Scenarios" and when the book references Mikhail Gorbachev. But Chapter 9 aside, The Art of the Long View is still a very relevant read for anyone looking at the medium to long term and wondering how they can position themselves and their organisations to meet future challenges. More so in these volatile times when it seems that we're not just co
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Aug 08, 2011
An interesting primer to strategic thinking by the 'Scenario Method'. I enjoyed its simplicity, but wished it had not beend so simplistic. As I read, I hungrily looked for a complete example of decision making that would open a new window for me. For example, the author builds three futuristic scenarios for the world (for the year 2005) but, at the end of it, does not mention - leave alone explain - what decisions are influenced by such an exercise.
I also tried relating it to strategic decision More...
I also tried relating it to strategic decision More...
Apr 20, 2009
getAbstract
rated it:
Foundational text on scenario planning
Peter Schwartz evidences charming honesty and humility about his experiences building scenarios. He learned from his failures, so he includes them, as well as his rather impressive successes. Schwartz emphasizes that scenario planning is not the same thing as predicting the future and that complete accuracy is not the goal. Yet, it is still striking how accurately his 1991 scenarios played out. He may have missed a few specific events and trends More...
Peter Schwartz evidences charming honesty and humility about his experiences building scenarios. He learned from his failures, so he includes them, as well as his rather impressive successes. Schwartz emphasizes that scenario planning is not the same thing as predicting the future and that complete accuracy is not the goal. Yet, it is still striking how accurately his 1991 scenarios played out. He may have missed a few specific events and trends More...
Jul 24, 2009
Ed
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Probably one of the books that influenced me most. An extraordinarily generative way to 'learn from the future'. It was part of the secret of why the South African transition to democracy was successful as it was used to make the parties get realistic about the possible futures facing South Africa. But it is also a dramatically useful business tool for dealing with the unforeseeable future by trying to capture the possible scenarios that might unfold and finding ways to be ready or at least awar
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Oct 06, 2009
Marie
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I really did not expect to like this book as much as I did, but I feel ilke it gets me. It really discusses who I try to be...a person who is constantly trying to stay on top of everything, and understand how the future may lay out...so that I may create stories within that future. (whether on a small or large scale) It explains my draw to book stores, and asking too many questions of people I just meet, among other things. I think it is an excellent book, and offers a lot of insight into humani
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Feb 05, 2012
Really enjoyed this book - the concept of scenarios, story telling new ideas for yourself and seeing them as myths of the future is something which really appeals to me.
I ended up writing my own story as I read it, how I saw myself both now and in the future.
I liked the idea of how there are plots in the world, which affect your individual story. Interestingly this isn't a creative writing book, but a book about being entrepreneurial!
I ended up writing my own story as I read it, how I saw myself both now and in the future.
I liked the idea of how there are plots in the world, which affect your individual story. Interestingly this isn't a creative writing book, but a book about being entrepreneurial!
Feb 26, 2009
Julie
rated it: 
Interesting approach to thinking strategically about the future: do tons of research about trends that affect your business, and from those trends, create scenarios about possible alternative futures. then imagine how various strategic decisions would play out in these scenarios...
I would love to be part of an organization that went through the process he outlines. It would be fascinating!
I would love to be part of an organization that went through the process he outlines. It would be fascinating!
Apr 02, 2008
Wens
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Peter Schwartz is an experienced futurist who had done scenario planning for companies such as Shell. He is the co-founder of Global Business Network, a consultancy for stategic scenario planning.
This book is about his experience in and views of using scenarios to help companies prepare strategically for an uncertain future. The idea is to use easily grasped "stories" to help companies decide whether their decisions can make sense in different possible futures, and to even More...
This book is about his experience in and views of using scenarios to help companies prepare strategically for an uncertain future. The idea is to use easily grasped "stories" to help companies decide whether their decisions can make sense in different possible futures, and to even More...
Jun 22, 2008
Blake
rated it:
It presents a pretty interesting concept of how to plan and see things, but I found it a bit repetitive. I also didnt like that the author was very arrogant. He makes a claim that he predicted the fall of Russia and the CIA wouldnt listen to him. The last few chapters talked about a concept of the teenager of the future that I found a bit unrealistic. It is worth a read because it has interesting thoughts just dont take it for ground truth.
Feb 19, 2008
Ash
rated it:
Like many management books this one would function just as well if I contained only the summation & appendices. Schawrtz's users guide for strategic discussions and scenario planning steps are useful. The book in total, however, drags and repeats itself too much for my tastes.
Apr 11, 2011
Ramreva
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Lovely, lots of strategies. Good for a futurist or a wanna be one, read the book, sure you can be one!
Sep 18, 2008
John
rated it:
Great introduction to scenario planning. See my full review here: http://relaxandhavefun.com/?p=42
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