The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

3.82 of 5 stars 3.82 · rating details · 5,932 ratings · 741 reviews

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear...more

Hardcover, 252 pages

Published May 13th 2008 by Pantheon (first published 2008)

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Aug 03, 2008 Lena rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction, how-the-brain-works

The Drunkard’s Walk is a book about randomness, a topic that most people, unless they happen to be mathematicians or have a strange fascination with statistics, probably don’t think too much about. As a species, in fact, we generally prefer not to dwell on randomness, but rather to assume that we are in control of much more of our lives than we actually are.

In this new book, physicist Leonard Mlodinow attempts to show why underestimating randomness is really not a good idea. He lays a foundatio...more The Drunkard’s Walk is a book about randomness, a topic that most people, unless they happen to be mathematicians or have a strange fascination with statistics, probably don’t think too much about. As a species, in fact, we generally prefer not to dwell on randomness, but rather to assume that we are in control of much more of our lives than we actually are.

In this new book, physicist Leonard Mlodinow attempts to show why underestimating randomness is really not a good idea. He lays a foundation for this discussion by outlining the development of mathematical and scientific thought on the topic. When humans assumed all outcomes were due to the whims of the gods, there was no need for a concept of randomness. But that didn’t stop gamblers from trying to improve their odds in games of chance, and it is to them we owe a debt of understanding on the topic.

Mlodinow spices up some rather technical discussions about development of the theory with interesting personal history of the major players (including a guy who figured out his baker was cheating customers by compulsively weighing his bread for a year and noting the differences from random distribution) and numerous fascinating studies on the topic. Along the way, he makes a compelling argument that the human propensity to see patterns where there are none can get us into a great deal of trouble, as anyone who has ever lost money in the stock market has probably figured out.

It’s not just gamblers and investors who would benefit from understanding these concepts, however. Mlodinow also shows how misunderstandings of randomness and statistics can affect jury trials and medical studies and makes a compelling argument that the success of an individual business is usually far more impacted by randomness than it is by the personal talents of the CEO or movie studio head.

Much of what Mlodinow discusses in this book is highly counterintuitive. That, combined with the above mentioned desire to believe we are masters of our fate, explains in part why we so often underestimate the effect of randomness on our lives. But acknowledging the power of randomness does not disempower us, Mlodinow argues. Rather, it allows us to focus on the aspects of our lives over which we really do have control, such as how persistent we are, and not take so personally the random luck--both good and bad--that touches all of us.
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Nov 16, 2012 Bronson rated it 1 of 5 stars

Yes, I was an English major so, yes, I LOVE literature, but my statistics courses were my favorite courses ever. I can't claim to be an expert statistician since I haven't run a chi-square analysis in eons and since I can only remember the phrase "data set" but can't remember how to collect one (kidding), but COME ON! Some of Mlodinow's information is interesting, but much of his logic seems unfounded and certainly begs some sort of question (and often a rather basic one at that). I've only fini...more

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Jul 14, 2008 Mike rated it 3 of 5 stars Recommends it for: math-haters

Clear and generally effective, but never particularly invigorating in its claims; for better and worse, very chatty. I like math (NERD!), and would have liked a bit more of a challenge (see David Foster Wallace's Everything and More). But it's more fun than any 36 of 40 math teachers, so what the hell.

That's right, math teachers. I'm throwing down. Push the taped glasses up your nose, square away the sleeves on your stained-white button-downs, hide the pointy edge of your compasses, and get rea...more

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Aug 10, 2008 Nicholaskurian rated it 4 of 5 stars

Fascinating book ... It was interesting how many people I spoke to about this get very passionate about randomness. Many people think acknowledging randomness is denying God.

The book is a bit chatty, and needs to focus a bit more on errors people make with statistics in their personal lives ... but Mlodinow hit on an essential concept.

I liked this lesson: that successful people are lucky, but that lucky people are persistent, flexible, and brave.

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Mar 03, 2013 Ric rated it 4 of 5 stars · review of another edition

If we were all unfeeling iRobots (floor cleaners) who respond to the random encounters in our lives by simply changing direction then the premise of this book is justified, for we would all follow our individual drunkard's walks to whatever probabilistic future awaits us. (view spoiler)

...more

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Sep 30, 2010 Georg rated it 5 of 5 stars

Shelves: english, non-fiction

Ein richtig gutes Buch für alle die, die sich ein bisschen für Mathematik interessieren, aber in der Schule (so wie ich) spätestens bei der Integralrechnung ausgestiegen sind. Unterhaltsam und anschaulich wird einem vor Augen geführt, wie leicht man sich bei statistischen Fragen oder bei Wahrscheinlichkeiten täuschen oder auch - im wahrsten Sinne des Wortes - verrechnen kann.

Manches wird ein bisschen aufdringlich wiederholt (ok, Lektoren und Weinexperten sind auch nur Menschen), und manches ist...more

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Jul 01, 2008 Tim abraham rated it 5 of 5 stars

this book is great. it takes you through the history of how the statistics and probabilities we understand (or try to understand) today were first proven. It's amazing how probability is just simply not an intuitive thing for the human mind. be prepared for some anecdotes that will leave you scratching your head. Mlodinov examples of human biases are entertaining and thought provoking. Anyone who likes interesting factoids, data, or wants to understand the world better will find this a good read...more

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Jan 05, 2012 Taka rated it 5 of 5 stars · review of another edition

Shelves: 2-nonfiction-you-must-read, iu-fall-2011, popular-science

Awesome--

This book made me admire what modern statistics—a topic I couldn't care less—is capable of doing and convinced me, like Taleb's The Black Swan and Burton Malkiel's Random Walk Down Wall Street how randomness really rules our lives and it's important to recognize chance events and not mistakenly assign them some causality that's not there. The history of probability theory and statistics Mlodinow tells in this book is nothing short of fascinating, and I was floored by the answers to some...more

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Nov 01, 2008 Trip rated it 4 of 5 stars

To get to its core idea, this book passes through basic probability theory, human cognitive shortcomings, the history of probability theory, biographical anecdotes of mathematicians, and the Monty Hall problem, but it does finally end up at "The cord that tethers ability to success is both loose and elastic." (p216). It's easy to see patterns in what has already happened, and construct narratives about how successes are due to personal virtues of those who succeeded and failures due to personal...more

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Aug 04, 2008 Mike added it

A very good and accessible introduction to probability and randomness. Most people don't appreciate the fact that most of what we see every day is the product of chance. Social scientists are, ironically, sometimes more blind to this fact than others, because we are trained to hunt for patterns, and we therefore tend to find them even if they aren't there. (For anyone who does statistics, one way of thinking about this is that the typical social scientist routinely underestimates the magnitude o...more

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Aug 08, 2011 Eric rated it 4 of 5 stars Recommends it for: Fans of popular science

Recommended to Eric by: Mike Reineke

Shelves: audiobooks, science

The last popular science book I read, which Mlodinow co-wrote, was The Grand Design. While that book went over my head early and often, this book on chance, probability, statistics and randomness was much easier to understand and digest. It is littered with real world examples that are both compelling and illustrative of the mathematical points they were describing.

The main concept to take out of The Drunkard's Walk is simple -- results are based on a good deal more random chance than skill, an...more

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Jan 05, 2009 Larry Evans is currently reading it

Great history of the development of probability theory and statistics with a lot of interesting applications. Actually a really fun book.

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Oct 29, 2008 Todd rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: science

The structure of this book, the latest in a recent spate to tackle some combination of probability, randomness, statistics and behavioral economics, is your basic statistics course. Or at least the one I took in biz school. A nice refresher if you're already familiar with the concepts, probably interesting if you're not. The final chapter ends on a pretty thoughtful note about how we humans have to balance the need to feel we're in control of things and the knowledge that in many many ways, most...more

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Apr 30, 2013 Claire rated it 3 of 5 stars

In this book, Mlodinow argues that in the majority of cases, successes and failures that have been attributed the clear causes are actually more likely to be influenced by chance. He gives us the anecdotal evidences of Bill Gates and Bruce Willis, both in the right place at the right time to launch their careers. I am one hundred percent with him on this. You can do certain things to put yourself in the right place at the right time, but such a lot of my own personal successes are down to luck r...more In this book, Mlodinow argues that in the majority of cases, successes and failures that have been attributed the clear causes are actually more likely to be influenced by chance. He gives us the anecdotal evidences of Bill Gates and Bruce Willis, both in the right place at the right time to launch their careers. I am one hundred percent with him on this. You can do certain things to put yourself in the right place at the right time, but such a lot of my own personal successes are down to luck rather than judgement, I cannot disagree with him.

The first half of the book deals with various scholars from years gone by and their theories on probability. This dragged a little for me, I am much more interested in the theories than the theoriser's biographies, so I admit I skimmed a little here. Also, my work background has given me plenty of experience in calculating probabilities and making decisions under uncertainty so I am pretty familiar with the theory on this subject.

There are some nice stories in this book that illustrate a lot of Mlodinow's points. There is one about a syndicate who calculated the return on an investment of buying every single lottery ticket in one US State in one week would be more than 300% so they attempted to do just that. There is another about a fifth century Greek philosopher called Zeno who said that if we want to travel anywhere we must traverse an infinite number of finite distances, which would take an infinite amount of time, therefore we never get anywhere. While I read this book I was also listening to Douglas Adams reading me his fabulous Restaurant at the End of the Universe (not at the exact same time, though, audio books are for walking the dogs to). Adams takes this a step further by saying that there are an infinite number of planets in the solar system with a finite number of beings on each one, therefore there population of the universe is zero.

There is a mind-boggling point about false positives in medical testing, where he tells us of the time when he get a false positive result for an HIV test. As he points out, the test that will be 100% successful in finding all cases of a disease will simply produce a positive result in 100% of the tests. He then compares hedge funds with coin-tossing, which I have to take points from him for doing, as an ex-trading analyst who truly believe that there is at least some skill in all that stuff.

So, this is the sort of popular science book that I like. There are new, challenging and thought-provoking ideas in here, told in a simple and clear way, with a few lovely anecdotes that I can steal. Oh, did I tell you about the wine that was given top marks by one “expert” and called the worst wine of the decade by another...?

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Jan 01, 2009 rmn rated it 3 of 5 stars

Shelves: financial-math-non-fiction

This is a decent book on the basics of probability which then segues into a minor rant on how everything is random. I recommend it for those not mathematically inclined or for those who have not thought about probability in awhile and need a refresher. It is reasonably well written in a breezy style that goes quickly with most concepts clearly explained (the one annoyance is author thinks he is being hip by making pop reference jokes, unfortunately they are dated and tiresome pop references. I m...more

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May 13, 2013 Zach rated it 3 of 5 stars

This is an excellent layman's guide to how random chance dictates various aspects of our lives, and how poorly equipped the human mind is to deal with randomness, even after training. It's also a good primer on various core concepts of statistics and probability, such as combinatorics, confidence intervals, and the central limit theorem.

Mlodinow writes anecdotally, using salient examples from the news and his own life to illustrate how, in every conceivable domain, even intelligent people can't...more This is an excellent layman's guide to how random chance dictates various aspects of our lives, and how poorly equipped the human mind is to deal with randomness, even after training. It's also a good primer on various core concepts of statistics and probability, such as combinatorics, confidence intervals, and the central limit theorem.

Mlodinow writes anecdotally, using salient examples from the news and his own life to illustrate how, in every conceivable domain, even intelligent people can't reason about probabilities and therefore come to the wrong conclusions. For example, Mlodinow got a false positive for an HIV blood test he took, and his doctor told him that since the test was 99.9% accurate, he was almost certainly going to die. But his doctor was making a common error in this kind of scenario. The relevant calculation isn't the accuracy of the test, but the probability of Mlodinow having HIV given the test result. As a straight white male who doesn't abuse intravenous drugs, his odds of having HIV are 1 in 10,000. It follows that in a population of 10,000 men in his demographic, 1 would have HIV and 11 would test positive for HIV (one true positive and ten false positives). This means that his chance of having HIV given the test result was actually 1 in 11, not 999/1,000 -- much better odds.

My favorite aspect of the book was Mlodinow's summary of studies that reveal the biases in human thinking about chance. The human mind is unwilling to admit that chance could play so great a role in its everyday affairs, and so people consistently (and erroneously) assume that a person's success or failure in any endeavor must be due to the person themselves. Mlodinow present numerous studies to demonstrate this universal bias, in simple and unambiguous situations where, for example, a test subject randomly selected to be paid more for the experiment -- that the other subjects know was selected randomly -- will be treated with increased respect and deference relative to his (randomly) lower paid peers. He speculates that the human need for control over one's life leads us to consistently overestimate the chance that, for example, hard work leads to success and indolence to failure, or that outcomes in general can be predicted ahead of time based on past performance. These very human notions are demonstrably false, but so completely ingrained into our natural thought processes that even trained mathematicians make the same errors when they themselves are the subject of the study.

Overall this was a pleasant and entertaining layman's math book, but I didn't find it particularly mind-expanding, probably because I was already familiar with most of the concepts Mlodinow discusses. For example, he spends several pages dissecting the now-famous Monty Hall paradox. These passages and several others were retreads for me, although well told. But I did appreciate his very human portraits about some of the great historical minds of math and physics, and he does an excellent job explaining the cultural and political reasons why these now-commonplace ideas about probability were so revolutionary at the time of their discovery.(less)

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Mar 15, 2013 Tony rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: science

THE DRUNKARD’S WALK: How Randomness Rules Our Lives. (2008). Leonard Mlodinow. ****.
This book by Physics Professor Mlodinow of Cal Tech, tries to present the principles of probability and statistics in a general way – avoiding the use of mathematics as much as possible. The writer uses as many anecdotes as possible to lay his case before the reader in a style that keeps us from getting too confused. The concepts are relatively simple, but the actual use of the techniques requires analytical ski...more

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Mar 12, 2013 Melinda Seyler rated it 3 of 5 stars

Recommended to Melinda by: newleaph@gmail.com

The Drunkard's Walk: Did you ever watch the tv show "NUMB3RS"? I kind of envision this author to be like Charlie Epps, the math wizard on that show. and the book is kind of like those little vignettes that happen when Charlie is explaining various math theories and how they apply to what ever his current investigation is. The book was interesting: lots of little stories about various scientists and mathematicians who figured out various theories or used various mathematical formulae to solve the...more

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Feb 13, 2013 Ioannis Savvas rated it 4 of 5 stars

Το Βάδισμα του Μεθύστακα είναι ένα βιβλίο απίθανο. Ή μάλλον πιθανό. Αλλά πόσο πιθανό; Πολύ πιθανό ή λίγο πιθανό; Δηλαδή 0,013 < p < 0,846. Τόσο πιθανό! Αν βλέποντάς το στο ράφι του βιβλιοπωλείου ο πωλητής μού έλεγε ότι απ' όλα τα βιβλία του ραφιού όλα είναι «μάπα» εκτός από ένα, και αυτό το ένα είναι είτε αυτό που διάλεξα είτε ένα άλλο, τι θα έπρεπε να κάνω; Να αλλάξω την αρχική μου επιλογή ή να την κρατήσω; Πότε θα είχα μεγαλύτερη πιθανότητα να βρω το «καλό» βιβλίο;

Και σε ένα final four π...more Το Βάδισμα του Μεθύστακα είναι ένα βιβλίο απίθανο. Ή μάλλον πιθανό. Αλλά πόσο πιθανό; Πολύ πιθανό ή λίγο πιθανό; Δηλαδή 0,013 < p < 0,846. Τόσο πιθανό! Αν βλέποντάς το στο ράφι του βιβλιοπωλείου ο πωλητής μού έλεγε ότι απ' όλα τα βιβλία του ραφιού όλα είναι «μάπα» εκτός από ένα, και αυτό το ένα είναι είτε αυτό που διάλεξα είτε ένα άλλο, τι θα έπρεπε να κάνω; Να αλλάξω την αρχική μου επιλογή ή να την κρατήσω; Πότε θα είχα μεγαλύτερη πιθανότητα να βρω το «καλό» βιβλίο;

Και σε ένα final four πόσους αγώνες πρέπει να παίξουν δύο ομάδες για να αναδειχθεί με ασφάλεια η καλύτερη; Πέντε; Δέκα; Αν κάποιος σάς έλεγε 267, θα τον πιστεύατε;

Και αν ο μέσος όρος ζωής είναι 80 χρόνια, ποια είναι η πιθανότητα να φτάσω τα 120, αν έχω ήδη πιάσει το μέσο όρο;

Ο Leonard Mlodinow έφτιαξε ένα βιβλίο με πολλή ανοιχτή-ανατρεπτική σκέψη, καθόλου μαθηματικά, αρκετή ιστορία και πάμπολλα παραδείγματα από την καθημερινή ζωή, για να περιγράψει πώς η τυχαιότητα καθορίζει τη ζωή μας. Επίσης, αν κάποιος θέλει να κατανοήσει κάποιες βασικές αρχές στατιστικής, χωρίς καθόλου (κυριολεκτικά) μαθηματικά, θα το βρει χρησιμότατο.

Αν είστε σίγουροι ότι καθορίζετε εσείς τη ζωή σας, μετά τη μελέτη αυτού του βιβλίου θα αναθεωρήσετε τις απόψεις σας για τον κόσμο. Αλλά μην απογοητευτείτε, γιατί «If you want to succeed, double your failure rate».(less)

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Feb 08, 2013 Mark Galassi rated it 4 of 5 stars

I found this book to be quite interesting, but I found its writing tiresome and scattered. I would have given it 3 stars for writing and 4 stars for the wealth of information it presents.

The author chooses some very nice topics to discuss, but there seems to be little cohesion in how they are ordered and presented. For some topics he has an extensive historical introduction, and for a while you think that history might be the unifying approach in the book, but others are presented via personal a...more

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Dec 28, 2012 Erika RS rated it 3 of 5 stars

Short summary: a must read if you are not familiar with the basic ideas of probability and statistics, and still a good read if you are familiar with the math but enjoy "history of mathematics" books (and I do!).

If I had to summarize this book in one sentence, I would quote page 11, "We habitually underestimate the effects of randomness." We assume, for example, that the hugely successful must have some secret or superior knowledge or talent. However, Mlodinow shows how, for example, given two p...more

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Dec 15, 2012 Jason Bellew rated it 4 of 5 stars

I started this book three weeks ago but didn't ever mark it here. It was a very good book. I was looking to study randomness and found this book. Though I was looking for the mathematical underpinnings of randomness (algorithms, computer simulations, etc) I discovered how much I need to really study the math behind randomness, basically Probability and Statistics. These two subjects have seemed 1) scary and complex, and 2) boring and factual. But after reading this book I have a better idea that...more

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Aug 13, 2012 Oscar rated it 4 of 5 stars

With Leonard Mlodinow’s The Drunkard s Walk, we get an examination of randomness, which in reality, affects our daily lives, but some people might avoid thinking about such in favor of the idea that they are in control of their lives or that there is some sort of destiny underlying the world. Mlodinow takes this debate and heads towards the idea that randomness serves as an underlying force that becomes easier to understand with a closer look at the science of probability math. The use of math i...more

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Jul 23, 2012 Caro rated it 3 of 5 stars

Despite the seemingly highly rated reviews this book has received, I suspect it is more of a case of this book was hard to read which means it must be good that accounts for its ratings rather than any credit to the author's writing.

The Drunkard's walk, despite Mr. Mlodinow's attempts at following Mr. Gladwell's formula, does not succeed in copying Mr. Gladwell's easy to read voice as well. First of all, although the subtitle SAYS "how randomness rules our lives," I actually found the book to be...more

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May 02, 2012 Michael Scott rated it 4 of 5 stars

Shelves: non-fiction, thought

(Ohno! Just as I finished a regular, but not too short review, my net connection crashed. Flames! Randomness! Drunkard walks. So the story begins, once again...)

I stumbled upon The Drunkard's Walk in a rugged bookstore. It has been translated, if I recall correctly, into one of the latin-sourced languages that I happen to speak and, reluctant to carry one extra brick in my luggage, decided on a whim to Kindle it. I was not to regret it (although this cannot be attributed to Leonard Mlodinow's ab...more (Ohno! Just as I finished a regular, but not too short review, my net connection crashed. Flames! Randomness! Drunkard walks. So the story begins, once again...)

I stumbled upon The Drunkard's Walk in a rugged bookstore. It has been translated, if I recall correctly, into one of the latin-sourced languages that I happen to speak and, reluctant to carry one extra brick in my luggage, decided on a whim to Kindle it. I was not to regret it (although this cannot be attributed to Leonard Mlodinow's ability to write).

The Drunkard's walk is a structured book about randomness, starting from the basic premise that everything in our lives is either straightforwardly random or so complex that it may seem random (ok, Mlodinow seems the indicate only the former). A collection of bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence, interspersed with historical lessons, peppered with a critical interpretation of the theory of probability, this book has a surprisingly, possibly intended coherent structure.

I enjoyed meeting many of the core mathematical figures of ... just about every age in history, from Ptolemy to Leibniz to . I enjoyed much of the humor, including the Jewish anecdotes (but except for the Holocaust stories, which, albeit unlikely to have been found in a book on probabilities, are neither funny nor illustrative for the material in this book). I even enjoyed many of the little stories about the current (mis)use of probability and statistics in our lives.

On the negative side, the writing is quickly becoming tedious, partly because the detailed explanation of the most basic probability concept quickly detracts from the otherwise fluent story, partly because most of the anecdotes relate to situations I've known for years. Mileage may vary. Also negatively, I found many of the praises of the importance of randomness, including the final message of "if you fail repeatedly, it's because you haven't tried enough to succeed", a bit far-fetched. Although interested in the topic and intrigued by the story line, I was unable to finish this book in one seating.

Overall, interesting is you happen to find it in a forgotten corner of a library.(less)

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Mar 11, 2012 Rachel rated it 5 of 5 stars

Great book for artists!

Artists are often faced with inexplicable rejections from shows or publications. Quality work is ignored and denied. When an artist then arrives at the exhibition, the selected work is not of high quality and some random lump wins "best of show". I've always believed that awards and selections for inclusion in shows are frequently random or determined by factors other than quality of the work. This book suggests that I am correct in this belief.

Okay, so I'm being flip, but...more

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Jan 19, 2012 Vinod Peris rated it 3 of 5 stars

I have always been fascinated by Probability Theory and found it one of the hardest subjects to master when I was in school. So when I saw this highly acclaimed book in Borders, I was drawn to it. This book attempts to combine some of the history of mathematics and statistics followed by the application of the principles into real world phenomenon and events around us

The book was a very pleasant read. However, when Mlodinow tried to explain basic statistical principles like central limit theorem...more

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Jan 10, 2012 Uri Agassi rated it 2 of 5 stars

I've read this book right after I've read "Bad Science", which is funny, since the two books seem to cross paths in more than one way...
In the first few chapters it sometimes seems that this book is a kind of an american version of Bad Science, and even more than a few anecdotes are given in both books, regarding our readiness to accept patterns where there are none.
Mlodinow's conclusions, however, are quite different, and they are presented in a way that will make Goldacre scream "bad science!"...more

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Nov 25, 2011 Steve rated it 4 of 5 stars

A decade ago, the statistician author of this book tested positive for AIDS. The doctor informed him that the test was 99.9% accurate, so there was little hope for error. After an abysmal weekend, he began to question the relevancy this number. The incidence of AIDS (within his demographic—middle aged, non-IV-drug user) is 1 in 10,000. So, out of every 10,000 who take the test, 1 person will test positive and will have the disease. HOWEVER, with a .1% error rate, of those same 10,000 tested, 10...more

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Sep 17, 2011 Intplibrarian rated it 4 of 5 stars

Ok, I'm weird and the one of my favorite types of math has always been probability and statistics. So, this book was just a lot of fun to read.[return][return]I can't give it 5 stars for one reason. In one of the first chapters, the author describes a situation that is supposed to explain how even doctors make mistakes understanding probability. Looking up the actual article he references, he's right. But the way he words the problem in the book makes the doctors *possibly* correct. It bothered...more

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About Leonard Mlodinow

Leonard Mlodinow is a physicist and author.

Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, in 1959, of parents who were both Holocaust survivors. His father, who spent more than a year in the Buchenwald death camp, had been a leader in the Jewish resistance under Nazi rule in his hometown of Częstochowa, Poland. As a child, Mlodinow was interested in both mathematics and chemistry, and while in high schoo...more

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“Perception requires imagination because the data people encounter in their lives are never complete and always equivocal. For example, most people consider that the greatest evidence of an event one can obtain is to see it with their own eyes, and in a court of law little is held in more esteem than eyewitness testimony. Yet if you asked to display for a court a video of the same quality as the unprocessed data catptured on the retina of a human eye, the judge might wonder what you were tryig to put over. For one thing, the view will have a blind spot where the optic nerve attaches to the retina. Moreover, the only part of our field of vision with good resolution is a narrow area of about 1 degree of visual angle around the retina’s center, an area the width of our thumb as it looks when held at arm’s length. Outside that region, resolution drops off sharply. To compensate, we constantly move our eyes to bring the sharper region to bear on different portions of the scene we wish to observe. And so the pattern of raw data sent to the brain is a shaky, badly pixilated picture with a hole in it. Fortunately the brain processes the data, combining input from both eyes, filling in gaps on the assumption that the visual properties of neighboring locations are similar and interpolating. The result - at least until age, injury, disease, or an excess of mai tais takes its toll - is a happy human being suffering from the compelling illusion that his or her vision is sharp and clear.

We also use our imagination and take shortcuts to fill gaps in patterns of nonvisual data. As with visual input, we draw conclusions and make judgments based on uncertain and incomplete information, and we conclude, when we are done analyzing the patterns, that out “picture” is clear and accurate. But is it?” — 19 people liked it

“Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store.” — 7 people liked it

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BBCode	[url=http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2272880.The_Drunkard_s_Walk?utm_medium=api&utm_source=blog_book][img]http://d.gr-assets.com/books/1320392907l/2272880.jpg[/img][/url] [url=http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2272880.The_Drunkard_s_Walk?utm_medium=api&utm_source=blog_book]The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow[/url]

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

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