In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a...
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Aug 03, 2008
Lena
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The Drunkard’s Walk is a book about randomness, a topic that most people, unless they happen to be mathematicians or have a strange fascination with statistics, probably don’t think too much about. As a species, in fact, we generally prefer not to dwell on randomness, but rather to assume that we are in control of much more of our lives than we actually are.
In this new book, physicist Leonard Mlodinow attempts to show why underestimating randomness is really not a good idea. He l More...
In this new book, physicist Leonard Mlodinow attempts to show why underestimating randomness is really not a good idea. He l More...
6 comments
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(28 people liked it)
Jul 14, 2008
Mike
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Clear and generally effective, but never particularly invigorating in its claims; for better and worse, very chatty. I like math (NERD!), and would have liked a bit more of a challenge (see David Foster Wallace's Everything and More). But it's more fun than any 36 of 40 math teachers, so what the hell.
That's right, math teachers. I'm throwing down. Push the taped glasses up your nose, square away the sleeves on your stained-white button-downs, hide the pointy edge of your compas More...
That's right, math teachers. I'm throwing down. Push the taped glasses up your nose, square away the sleeves on your stained-white button-downs, hide the pointy edge of your compas More...
2 comments
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Aug 10, 2008
Nicholaskurian
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Fascinating book ... It was interesting how many people I spoke to about this get very passionate about randomness. Many people think acknowledging randomness is denying God.
The book is a bit chatty, and needs to focus a bit more on errors people make with statistics in their personal lives ... but Mlodinow hit on an essential concept.
I liked this lesson: that successful people are lucky, but that lucky people are persistent, flexible, and brave.
The book is a bit chatty, and needs to focus a bit more on errors people make with statistics in their personal lives ... but Mlodinow hit on an essential concept.
I liked this lesson: that successful people are lucky, but that lucky people are persistent, flexible, and brave.
Sep 30, 2010
Georg
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Ein richtig gutes Buch für alle die, die sich ein bisschen für Mathematik interessieren, aber in der Schule (so wie ich) spätestens bei der Integralrechnung ausgestiegen sind. Unterhaltsam und anschaulich wird einem vor Augen geführt, wie leicht man sich bei statistischen Fragen oder bei Wahrscheinlichkeiten täuschen oder auch - im wahrsten Sinne des Wortes - verrechnen kann.
Manches wird ein bisschen aufdringlich wiederholt (ok, Lektoren und Weinexperten sind auch nur Menschen), und More...
Manches wird ein bisschen aufdringlich wiederholt (ok, Lektoren und Weinexperten sind auch nur Menschen), und More...
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Jul 01, 2008
Tim
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this book is great. it takes you through the history of how the statistics and probabilities we understand (or try to understand) today were first proven. It's amazing how probability is just simply not an intuitive thing for the human mind. be prepared for some anecdotes that will leave you scratching your head. Mlodinov examples of human biases are entertaining and thought provoking. Anyone who likes interesting factoids, data, or wants to understand the world better will find this a good read
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Jan 07, 2012
Taka
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Awesome--
This book made me admire what modern statistics—a topic I couldn't care less—is capable of doing and convinced me, like Taleb's The Black Swan and Burton Malkiel's Random Walk Down Wall Street how randomness really rules our lives and it's important to recognize chance events and not mistakenly assign them some causality that's not there. The history of probability theory and statistics Mlodinow tells in this book is nothing short of fascinating, and I was floored by the answe More...
This book made me admire what modern statistics—a topic I couldn't care less—is capable of doing and convinced me, like Taleb's The Black Swan and Burton Malkiel's Random Walk Down Wall Street how randomness really rules our lives and it's important to recognize chance events and not mistakenly assign them some causality that's not there. The history of probability theory and statistics Mlodinow tells in this book is nothing short of fascinating, and I was floored by the answe More...
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Nov 01, 2008
Trip
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To get to its core idea, this book passes through basic probability theory, human cognitive shortcomings, the history of probability theory, biographical anecdotes of mathematicians, and the Monty Hall problem, but it does finally end up at "The cord that tethers ability to success is both loose and elastic." (p216). It's easy to see patterns in what has already happened, and construct narratives about how successes are due to personal virtues of those who succeeded and failures due to
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3 comments
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(1 person liked it)
Aug 04, 2008
A very good and accessible introduction to probability and randomness. Most people don't appreciate the fact that most of what we see every day is the product of chance. Social scientists are, ironically, sometimes more blind to this fact than others, because we are trained to hunt for patterns, and we therefore tend to find them even if they aren't there. (For anyone who does statistics, one way of thinking about this is that the typical social scientist routinely underestimates the magnitude o
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(2 people liked it)
Jul 07, 2010
Bronson
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Yes, I was an English major, so, yes, I LOVE literature, but my statistics courses were my favorite courses ever. I can't claim to be an expert statistician since I haven't run a chi-square analysis in eons and since I can only remember the phrase "data set" but can't remember how to collect one (kidding), but COME ON! Some of Mlodinow's information is interesting, but much of his logic seems unfounded and certainly begs some sort of question (and often a rather basic one at that). I'v
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(4 people liked it)
Sep 07, 2011
Eric
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The last popular science book I read, which Mlodinow co-wrote, was The Grand Design. While that book went over my head early and often, this book on chance, probability, statistics and randomness was much easier to understand and digest. It is littered with real world examples that are both compelling and illustrative of the mathematical points they were describing.
The main concept to take out of The Drunkard's Walk is simple -- results are based on a good deal more random chance t More...
The main concept to take out of The Drunkard's Walk is simple -- results are based on a good deal more random chance t More...
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(1 person liked it)
Jan 05, 2009
Great history of the development of probability theory and statistics with a lot of interesting applications. Actually a really fun book.
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Oct 29, 2008
Todd
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The structure of this book, the latest in a recent spate to tackle some combination of probability, randomness, statistics and behavioral economics, is your basic statistics course. Or at least the one I took in biz school. A nice refresher if you're already familiar with the concepts, probably interesting if you're not. The final chapter ends on a pretty thoughtful note about how we humans have to balance the need to feel we're in control of things and the knowledge that in many many ways, most
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Jan 01, 2009
rmn
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This is a decent book on the basics of probability which then segues into a minor rant on how everything is random. I recommend it for those not mathematically inclined or for those who have not thought about probability in awhile and need a refresher. It is reasonably well written in a breezy style that goes quickly with most concepts clearly explained (the one annoyance is author thinks he is being hip by making pop reference jokes, unfortunately they are dated and tiresome pop references.
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Jan 19, 2012
Vinod
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I have always been fascinated by Probability Theory and found it one of the hardest subjects to master when I was in school. So when I saw this highly acclaimed book in Borders, I was drawn to it. This book attempts to combine some of the history of mathematics and statistics followed by the application of the principles into real world phenomenon and events around us
The book was a very pleasant read. However, when Mlodinow tried to explain basic statistical principles like central lim More...
The book was a very pleasant read. However, when Mlodinow tried to explain basic statistical principles like central lim More...
Jan 10, 2012
Uri
rated it: 
I've read this book right after I've read "Bad Science", which is funny, since the two books seem to cross paths in more than one way...
In the first few chapters it sometimes seems that this book is a kind of an american version of Bad Science, and even more than a few anecdotes are given in both books, regarding our readiness to accept patterns where there are none.
Mlodinow's conclusions, however, are quite different, and they are presented in a way that will make Goldacre s More...
In the first few chapters it sometimes seems that this book is a kind of an american version of Bad Science, and even more than a few anecdotes are given in both books, regarding our readiness to accept patterns where there are none.
Mlodinow's conclusions, however, are quite different, and they are presented in a way that will make Goldacre s More...
Nov 25, 2011
Steve
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A decade ago, the statistician author of this book tested positive for AIDS. The doctor informed him that the test was 99.9% accurate, so there was little hope for error. After an abysmal weekend, he began to question the relevancy this number. The incidence of AIDS (within his demographic—middle aged, non-IV-drug user) is 1 in 10,000. So, out of every 10,000 who take the test, 1 person will test positive and will have the disease. HOWEVER, with a .1% error rate, of those same 10,000 tested, 10
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Sep 17, 2011
Intplibrarian
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Ok, I'm weird and the one of my favorite types of math has always been probability and statistics. So, this book was just a lot of fun to read.[return][return]I can't give it 5 stars for one reason. In one of the first chapters, the author describes a situation that is supposed to explain how even doctors make mistakes understanding probability. Looking up the actual article he references, he's right. But the way he words the problem in the book makes the doctors *possibly* correct. It both
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Aug 24, 2011
Joseph D.
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This book is a historical stroll through the development of statistics and our understanding of stochastic (unpredictable, random, non-deterministic) processes from the quantum mechanics of atoms to the unpredictability in meteorology. The author most recently collaborated with Stephen Hawking in the curiously-titled "The Grand Design" and writes in colorful and bright prose.
The book is a nice complement to both Predictably Irrational and Fooled by Randomness in that, in add More...
The book is a nice complement to both Predictably Irrational and Fooled by Randomness in that, in add More...
Jul 26, 2011
Audrey
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I wanted to like this book more, and I did enjoy it a lot, but it was somewhat unfocused (and I somewhat doubt that Mlodinow was engaging in performative randomness).
If anything, I think "The Drunkard's Walk" suffers from trying to be a few too many things at once; I could have done with a bit less biographical information about the mathematicians and statisticians whose work was cited. I also would have liked to see more math and hard numbers, which I suppose is a hard selli More...
If anything, I think "The Drunkard's Walk" suffers from trying to be a few too many things at once; I could have done with a bit less biographical information about the mathematicians and statisticians whose work was cited. I also would have liked to see more math and hard numbers, which I suppose is a hard selli More...
Apr 10, 2011
Keith
rated it:
This book is not really about randomness as such, but about what I would call statistics and probability. (O. K., a semantic distinction, but to me randomness has a connotation of "why was I born?" type of stuff.) It's actually a fairly sophisticated book with quite a bit of difficult concepts that I still don't quite understand. It's well written; you can keep reading even if you don't quite get one point or another. Also, there's essentially no math in it at all. Well, there's s
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Aug 06, 2010
Jafar
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This book is another one of those books that can be described as useful, informative, and other such not-really-flattering adjectives, but it’s a really good book and everyone should read it. It’s amazing how much we’re NOT meant to understand chance and randomness. This deficiency is not only a problem for your statistics and probability exams, but also in daily life. You need to read this book to see how sloppy reasoning and misunderstanding of randomness can impair our judgment in so many sit
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(1 person liked it)
Jul 08, 2010
Jamie
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Yeah, that's right. A book about probability theory. And actually, it's not bad if you can either shrug off or endure a bit of lecturing on basic mathematics and statistics. Author Leonard Mlodinow sets out to review the history of probability, starting with the ancient Greeks and following the field's evolution and application. Mlodinow has a pretty good style, keeping things relatively low level so that anyone with a high school education in math can probably follow along. He also peppers the
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Jul 06, 2010
Shelley
rated it:
The weirdest thing about reading this book was the following:
I watched the movie "21" in which a team of college students under the tutelage of a greedy professor make tons of money in Las Vegas by counting cards while playing Black Jack. In one scene of the movie, probabilities are discussed and the professor brings up the scenario of the 3 doors on "Let's Make a Deal" and asks the class if it's better to stick with your first choice of doors AFTER the host reveals one More...
I watched the movie "21" in which a team of college students under the tutelage of a greedy professor make tons of money in Las Vegas by counting cards while playing Black Jack. In one scene of the movie, probabilities are discussed and the professor brings up the scenario of the 3 doors on "Let's Make a Deal" and asks the class if it's better to stick with your first choice of doors AFTER the host reveals one More...
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Jan 24, 2010
Steven
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I found this book fascinating. I knew I didn't understand statistics, but I didn't realize how little I understood about randomness and probability. The Monty Hall problem (aka "Let's make a deal", Ch. 3); the effect that naming a girl child "Florida" can have on the probability of having two girls (Bayesian theory, Ch. 6, p. 107); the errors that people consistently make on relative probabilities (see, e.g., p. 36-40). I especially liked the sections on how we tend to find p
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Dec 25, 2009
Tucker
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Mlodinow presents two definitions of randomness: the "frequency interpretation," identified by Charles Sanders Peirce in 1896 as a method that will produce one set as frequently as any other set, and the "subjective interpretation," based on our inability to predict results. (pp. 84-85) Falling under the subjective category is research dating back to the 1930s that showed that "people could neither make up a sequence of numbers that passed mathematical tests for random
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Oct 20, 2009
Daniel
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Leonard Mlodinow has managed to condense a lot into the 219 pages of The Drunkard’s Walk. Not only is his book a deconstruction of the seemingly unpredictable forces that interact with us on a daily basis, it provides a brief history of the mathematics of chance and the various players who created the studies of statistics and probability. To avoid sounding like a lecture on logic, Mlodinow interjects with fitting examples and anecdotes to illustrate key points.
In order to explain More...
In order to explain More...
Sep 22, 2009
David
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very interesting book on how random processes/sampling error can be responsible for large effects yet difficult to perceive. Ties together numerous seemingly disparate effects (why are stock analysts paid so much if it's nearly impossible to beat the market average consistently? why do people tend to believe that those who experience failure or misfortune deserved it? etc. etc.
Also delves into considerable detail on the history of understanding of probability, games of chance, and More...
Also delves into considerable detail on the history of understanding of probability, games of chance, and More...
Jul 11, 2009
Gabe
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For anyone which has not had the benefit of taking Statistics (hopefully in college), this book is an excellent overview of the material you would get in a college level course (although without the beauty of calculus) told through many lenses: history, social policy issues, interesting mathematical puzzles.
For anyone that wonders about events that seem seemingly pre-ordained or destined, this might be a good book to expand your thinking and make you think about the role probability More...
For anyone that wonders about events that seem seemingly pre-ordained or destined, this might be a good book to expand your thinking and make you think about the role probability More...
Apr 04, 2009
Mazola1
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In The Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow takes a fascinating look at chance and statistics and how they interact. He outlines the history of the development of statistics and measurement. He also explains basic concepts of how to determine how likely it is that certain events will happen, such as what the chances are that two people in a room of people will share the same birthday. The writing is fairly informal, the examples well picked and for the most part easy to understand.
Mlodi More...
Mlodi More...
Feb 06, 2009
Chris
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I did an undergraduate degree in English, and you would not think that I would be taken in by a book about statistics. This was an excellent and insightful view of the logical inconsistencies and downright errors made by humans because we do not understand the nature of statistical anomalies. Mlodinow spends much of the book discussing how statistically improbably events happen all the time, yet we fail to understand the significance of given probabilities despite the fact that we interact wit
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