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Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller
"Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The New York Times
"An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." -The Wall Street J...more
"Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The New York Times
"An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." -The Wall Street J...more
Hardcover, 400 pages
Published
September 7th 1996
by John Wiley & Sons
(first published 1996)
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Thoroughly enjoyed this. It examines the study and the notion of risk throughout...well throughout forever. A lot of the reviews make this out to be chock full of math, but speaking as a very non-math person I found it perfectly accessible.
The author has a nice way of mixing background color and the personalities of the various people he discusses in with the overall examination of risk. I enjoyed thinking along with notions like why the number zero didn't exist until society had moved...more
The author has a nice way of mixing background color and the personalities of the various people he discusses in with the overall examination of risk. I enjoyed thinking along with notions like why the number zero didn't exist until society had moved...more
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Risk is inherent to any activity and uncertainty is all prevalent. Today, we have comlpex mathematical and statistical models to help us quantify and assess risk, but this was not always the case. This book tells the story of how modern Risk Management evolved with the contribution of eminent scientists, statisticians, mathematicians and later, economists. What I really liked about this book is the fact that I was able to place the various names like Bernoulli, Pascal, Fermat, Fibonacci, Da Vinc...more
Lucid, accessible history of risk management
This work is a minor classic of financial literature. Business historian Peter L. Bernstein wrote it during the early 1990s, when faith in the power of quantitative models and financial engineering was at its apex, and he tells a heroic story. Beginning with Greek mythology, Bernstein shows how cultural ideas about risk and probability evolved through Arab mathematics, the European Enlightenment and Chicago School economics. He writes in a ...more
This work is a minor classic of financial literature. Business historian Peter L. Bernstein wrote it during the early 1990s, when faith in the power of quantitative models and financial engineering was at its apex, and he tells a heroic story. Beginning with Greek mythology, Bernstein shows how cultural ideas about risk and probability evolved through Arab mathematics, the European Enlightenment and Chicago School economics. He writes in a ...more
"A and B are playing a fair game of balla. They agree to continue until one has won six rounds. The game atually stops when A has won five and B three. How should the stakes be divided?"
Not until 1654 would an answer to the previous question finally be discovered when the French Lawyer and amateur Mathematician Pierre de Fermat joined forces with the French Mathematician Blaise Pascal. Peter Bernstein's "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk" traces not only th...more
A very clear and entertaining exposition on the history of risk and risk management. Combining probability, statistics, economics, and finance full of thorough historical research, Bernstein touches on so many subject and people while keeping the delicate balance between too much and too little information.
My only complaints are that he glosses over some of the details of various mathematical and economic advances, though I suppose since entire textbooks have been written on the subje...more
My only complaints are that he glosses over some of the details of various mathematical and economic advances, though I suppose since entire textbooks have been written on the subje...more
A puerile abuse of mathematics, statistics, biography, and history, badly paced and full of pointless and likely apocryphal anecdotes. Religious awe for Gaussian distributions appearing in nature makes me wonder if the author has ever heard of the fucking central limit theorem. Something like a version of "how to win friends and influence people" for economists or day traders or something, except it won't even make you feel good about humanity.
As the title indicates this book narrates the history of Risk and its role in human advancement.
Peter best summarizes the content of the book in his introduction: "this book tells the story of a group of thinkers whose remarkable vision revealed ow to put the future at the service of the present. By showing the world how to understand risk, measure it, and weight its consequences, they converted risk-taking into one of the prime catalysts that drives modern Western society."
...more
Peter best summarizes the content of the book in his introduction: "this book tells the story of a group of thinkers whose remarkable vision revealed ow to put the future at the service of the present. By showing the world how to understand risk, measure it, and weight its consequences, they converted risk-taking into one of the prime catalysts that drives modern Western society."
...more
Against the Gods is a fantastic book for people who love to read the history of risk, dating back as far as to the greeks. Bernstein's passion to the topic makes it a clear 5 star book. And he's passions shows on almost every page. Example: if you are just interested in the Markowitz formula, don't buy this book. But if you wanna read that Markowitz's methodology is a synthesis of the ideas of Pascal, de Moivre, Bayes, Laplace, Guass, Galton, Daniel Bernoulli (especially since he's had the same ...more
"It is the supreme law of Unreason. Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand...an unsuspected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent all along." Francis Galton, quoted in Against the Gods
If you are looking for a book about the history of probability theory and risk management, you've probably already read this book. Bernstein's 1996 classic is still remarkably contemporary as he describes the source of many of today's current...more
If you are looking for a book about the history of probability theory and risk management, you've probably already read this book. Bernstein's 1996 classic is still remarkably contemporary as he describes the source of many of today's current...more
I had a really hard time rating this book. I bought it years ago, as part of a massive Amazon binge. I've moved it several times, and hadn't read it yet. Oh, and it's huge. So, I really didn't want to move it again.
Because I had held on to it for so long, my expectations were really high. The book didn't meet them. However, trying to be fair... it was a good book. It wasn't entirely what I expected though.
The book is only peripherally about risk - really, its about risk and r...more
Because I had held on to it for so long, my expectations were really high. The book didn't meet them. However, trying to be fair... it was a good book. It wasn't entirely what I expected though.
The book is only peripherally about risk - really, its about risk and r...more
Author Peter Bernstein has worn many hats: professional investment manager, financial journal editor, historian, and others. In his 1996 work Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, it shows. Bernstein is interested not only in the nature of financial market risks and how we manage them, but how mankind has struggled with risk and probability throughout history. This is why his story starts with the invention of zero and ends around the crash of 1987, stopping in between to examine the c...more
Bernstein, an economic investment consultant, discusses the various aspects of risk, beginning with the foundations of probability and proceeding through decision theory to conclude with explanations of financial investment issues such as the use and misuse of derivatives. He enlivens his historical survey with personal information and anecdotes about all the key innovators, from the Alexandrian mathematician Diophantus to Berkeley finance professor Hayne Leland.
54 The factors that contr...more
54 The factors that contr...more
Interesting so far, a little heavy going in the early chapters for those deficient in math skills but fascinating in the details. Amazed to find that Da Vinci had only 3rd grade math skills.
This book is a popular history of probability theory (Kolmogorov does not get a mention, but von Neumann does; I was surprised to learn that Laplace anticipated the notion of Kolmogorov complexity). It is also a history of its applications to finance and insurance for managing risks and rewards, from maritime insurance to investment into equity and options. Of course, the next 15 years proved that this civilization's management of risk has been disastrous. The CFO of Goldman Sachs memorably said...more
A better book than I anticipated - not only is the author an engaging writer, but he doesn't just provide a history of risk management, he actually explains the mathematical concepts behind it. Well, up until the 20th century anyway. I might have given it five stars if he'd continued.
The author spent a good amount of time on analyzing how well our history of risk management has worked, particularly with regards to investing. It was very useful to see an interpretation on just how go...more
The author spent a good amount of time on analyzing how well our history of risk management has worked, particularly with regards to investing. It was very useful to see an interpretation on just how go...more
It was a good book on the history of risk and how it applies to finance.
Poignant Quotes:
The capacity to manage risk, and with it the appetite to take risk and make forward-looking choices, are key elements of the energy that drives the economic system forward.
The Law of Large Numbers says in essence that the difference between the observed value of a sample and its true value will diminish as the number of observations in the sample increases.
The more uncertai...more
Poignant Quotes:
The capacity to manage risk, and with it the appetite to take risk and make forward-looking choices, are key elements of the energy that drives the economic system forward.
The Law of Large Numbers says in essence that the difference between the observed value of a sample and its true value will diminish as the number of observations in the sample increases.
The more uncertai...more
I thought this book was really cool. I've been thinking a lot about risk lately as I've had to quit my salaried position and have considered starting a small business. Everything around us is a result of risk. From the early explorers sailing out across the ocean to each new breakthrough in technology - a result of risk.
I thought the book was going to be more about these things (pirates, taking chances, etc). In reality, the book moved from early times forward and discussed how pro...more
I thought the book was going to be more about these things (pirates, taking chances, etc). In reality, the book moved from early times forward and discussed how pro...more
I wasn't captivated by the book, and I can't really pinpoint why; maybe it was just too long with too many detours into areas I didn't find all that interesting at the time I read it. I'm interested in history, statistics, and finance, but I probably wouldn't have even finished this book if another had been available during an extended period of waiting for something. Others have given it great reviews, but I never got into the book until the Kahneman & Tversky section which was at the end, we...more
This is really more of a book about the history of probability theory than it is about the history of risk management. Of course, risk managers have to understand the probability of risk before they can hope to mitigate it. Bernstein gives a chapter by chapter account of the development of probability theory across the centuries and through the famous and not-so-famous thinkers that developed it. The history and the characters involved with it are fascinating. In the last couple of chapters,...more
Bernstein describes the history in a very readable manner, with stories behind the mathematicians to make them seem like real people (though I've already blurred them into one). The book starts with numbers and how they moved from roman numerals to our modern numbering system. I was amazed at the very recent transitions to using the plus and minus symbols in math. He transitions to more theory very easily with no loss of readability. He even touches on theories about why some people who were so ...more
This is a brilliant book, but marred on two key accounts. Firstly the language Bernstein uses to reference earlier cultures, their thinkers, and their ideas really rubs me the wrong way. He gives off the impression that the Wall Street of the 1990's is the be-all, end-all, greatest embodiment of risk ever conceived by mankind, and every person/theory that came before it is ultimately inferior. For me, his tone is classically Western, very antiquated, and somehow deeply unsettling. I don't like t...more
How do you deal with uncertainty? How do others deal with uncertainty? How have people dealt with uncertainty throughout history? The last question is what this book attempts to answer, and the information is fascinating.
Unfortunately, the history of risk is a very difficult story to tell and it shows. We are given page after page of amazing anecdote and fascinating characters, but every attempt to thread them together into a cohesive narrative falls flat.
The book is divi...more
Unfortunately, the history of risk is a very difficult story to tell and it shows. We are given page after page of amazing anecdote and fascinating characters, but every attempt to thread them together into a cohesive narrative falls flat.
The book is divi...more
Just finished the book:
Liked the beginning that explained how the number zero '0' comes about and helped to fuel the advancement in mathematics.
A little boring in the middle until it reaches the end. Among the interesting points to note:
(1) Prospect Theory ( which questioned rationality and previous models built upon this assumption. E.g. Game theory is built on one. It's not the logic that is being questioned, but rather the human mind required to perform it)...more
Liked the beginning that explained how the number zero '0' comes about and helped to fuel the advancement in mathematics.
A little boring in the middle until it reaches the end. Among the interesting points to note:
(1) Prospect Theory ( which questioned rationality and previous models built upon this assumption. E.g. Game theory is built on one. It's not the logic that is being questioned, but rather the human mind required to perform it)...more
As someone who has made a career in insurance, I almost have to have read this book. I think it sat briefly on my shelf with other vaguely appropriate work reading. As a business book, it is interesting but not terribly enlightening. As a college history major, same thing- interesting read, but not anything special. It is a fun non-fiction read, but not something that I'll come back to over and over again.
A pretty good book certainly worth reading as an introduction to a topic whose literature would be far too complex for the beginner or dilettante. Did I really learn anything useful? Not much I can take away, but I do have a stronger interest in reading the business and finance sections of the papers. It's a fairly quick read, so I wouldn't discourage anyone from checking this book out.
Detailed hagiography of philosophers of risk which doesn't stray too far into the deep end of mathematical finance until after the 1960's when (as Taleb points out) financial modeling divorces itself from reality. Bernstein's lionization of these thinkers is frustrating especially after the Black-Scholes-Merton equation crashed the American economy twice.
An interesting overview of risk and statistics. In some ways, it's outdated - it came out 15 years ago, before the collapse of Long Term Capital Management or current mortgage bubble. But some of the discussion near the end about derivatives and other forms of hedging is almost ahead of it's time.
It does a good job of covering how we look at risk and probability, and how views have changed and improved since the beginning of time. For a subject as heavy as this, and coming from...more
It does a good job of covering how we look at risk and probability, and how views have changed and improved since the beginning of time. For a subject as heavy as this, and coming from...more
Not quite what I had in mind. I thought book was about events of historical figure(s) who/m took the risk and succeeded or failed.
It's actually about history of mathematics, risk, and risk management from economic and finance perspective. And good one at that.
I don't usually finish books like this without a break(Reading something else), but Bernstein's writing is easy to digest and actually fun to read.
It gets dry in the middle of the book, but it's fascinating read nonethele...more
It's actually about history of mathematics, risk, and risk management from economic and finance perspective. And good one at that.
I don't usually finish books like this without a break(Reading something else), but Bernstein's writing is easy to digest and actually fun to read.
It gets dry in the middle of the book, but it's fascinating read nonethele...more
This is really a history of probability theory, from the ancients to today. When did humans start measuring odds? What were the mathematical advances necessary? Who were the key players? How does that apply to risk management? I have to admit, it's a slow read for me (few pages a night), but it's fascinating.
an investment classic. bernstein was one of the great market commentators of the 20th century and this book is a tremendous (and tremendously readable) history of how market analysis and the quantification of risk has evolved over time. required reading for traders or investment professionals.
| topics | posts | views | last activity | |
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| Fantastic Review of Against the Gods | 1 | 6 | Sep 22, 2011 09:57pm |
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Founder and President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., which he established in 1973 as economic consultants to institutional investors and corporations around the world.
In 1951, after teaching economics at Williams College and a five-year stint in commercial banking, Peter became Chief Executive of a nationally–known investment counsel firm, where he personally managed billions of dollars ...more
More about Peter L. Bernstein...
In 1951, after teaching economics at Williams College and a five-year stint in commercial banking, Peter became Chief Executive of a nationally–known investment counsel firm, where he personally managed billions of dollars ...more
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