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<book id="1043854">
  <title><![CDATA[Chances Are . . .: Adventures in Probability]]></title>
  <isbn><![CDATA[0670034878]]></isbn>
  <isbn13><![CDATA[9780670034871]]></isbn13>
    <image_url>http://photo.goodreads.com/books/1180463827m/1043854.jpg</image_url>
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  <best_book_id type="integer">1043854</best_book_id>
  <books_count type="integer">2</books_count>
  <default_description>&lt;B&gt;A layman's journey into the realm of probability&amp;#151;from poker to politics, weather to war, Monte Carlo to mortality&lt;/B&gt; &lt;BR&gt;&lt;BR&gt; We search for certainty, but find only likelihood. All things are possible, only one thing actually happens; everything else is in the realm of probability. The twin disciplines of probability and statistics underpin every modern science and sketch the shape of all purposeful group activity&amp;#151; politics, economics, medicine, law, sports&amp;#151;giving humans a handle on the essential uncertainty of their existence. Yet while we are all aware of the hard facts, most of us still refuse to take account of probability&amp;#151;preferring to drive, not fly; buying into market blips; smoking cigarettes; denying we will ever age. &lt;P&gt; There are some people, though&amp;#151;gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists&amp;#151; who find probability's mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory. &lt;I&gt;Chances Are&lt;/I&gt; is their story. Combining philosophical and historical background with portraits of the men and women who command the forces of probability, this engaging, wide-ranging, and clearly written volume will be welcomed not only by the proven audiences for popular books like &lt;I&gt;E=MC2&lt;/I&gt; and &lt;I&gt;The Golden Ratio&lt;/I&gt; but by anyone interested in the workings of fate.</default_description>
  <id type="integer">1030262</id>
  <media_type nil="true"></media_type>
  <original_language_id type="integer" nil="true"></original_language_id>
  <original_publication_day type="integer">23</original_publication_day>
  <original_publication_month type="integer">3</original_publication_month>
  <original_publication_year type="integer">2006</original_publication_year>
  <original_title>Chances Are . . .: Adventures in Probability</original_title>
  <rating_dist>total:53|5:7|4:17|3:20|2:8|1:1|</rating_dist>
  <ratings_count type="integer">53</ratings_count>
  <ratings_sum type="integer">180</ratings_sum>
  <reviews_count type="integer">109</reviews_count>
  <text_reviews_count type="integer">15</text_reviews_count>
</work>

  <average_rating><![CDATA[3.40]]></average_rating>
  <ratings_count><![CDATA[36]]></ratings_count>
  <text_reviews_count><![CDATA[9]]></text_reviews_count>
  <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1043854.Chances_Are_Adventures_in_Probability]]></url>
  <authors>
        <author id="31239">
      <name><![CDATA[Ellen Kaplan]]></name>
      <role><![CDATA[]]></role>
      <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/31239.Ellen_Kaplan]]></url>
      <average_rating><![CDATA[3.34]]></average_rating>
      <ratings_count><![CDATA[82]]></ratings_count>
      <text_reviews_count><![CDATA[31]]></text_reviews_count>
    </author>
        <author id="121314">
      <name><![CDATA[Michael Kaplan]]></name>
      <role><![CDATA[]]></role>
      <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/121314.Michael_Kaplan]]></url>
      <average_rating><![CDATA[3.28]]></average_rating>
      <ratings_count><![CDATA[101]]></ratings_count>
      <text_reviews_count><![CDATA[36]]></text_reviews_count>
    </author>
      </authors>
    <reviews start="1" end="20" total="109">
    <review id="23571817">
    <user id="897874">
    <name><![CDATA[Bruce]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[The United States]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/897874-bruce]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>5</rating>
  <votes>1</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
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      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[everybody]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Sun Jun 01 00:00:00 -0700 2008</read_at>
  <date_added>Mon Jun 02 20:27:27 -0700 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Fri Jul 04 06:16:23 -0700 2008</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This book struck my personal resonant frequency.  I found the anecdotes witty and engaging, the conclusions often insightful, and the underlying premise -- that life can best be appreciated as a motley collection of random events, the shape of which can be estimated with varying degrees of confidenc...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/23571817">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/23571817]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="58577392">
    <user id="676492">
    <name><![CDATA[Jean-Luc]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Hoboken, NJ]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/676492-jean-luc]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>3</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Mon Jun 01 00:00:00 -0700 2009</read_at>
  <date_added>Fri Jun 05 14:39:27 -0700 2009</date_added>
  <date_updated>Tue Jun 09 15:45:30 -0700 2009</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[If you ever go gambling, <em>always</em> play the games that pit you against other people.  <em>Never</em> play any game that pits you against the house.  If you're curious about why this is, then read this book.  If not...  It's <em>your</em> money.  You do whatever you want.<br/><br/>Most math history books talk about who...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/58577392">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/58577392]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="8838777">
    <user id="608830">
    <name><![CDATA[Pspealman]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Brooklyn, NY]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/608830-pspealman]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>4</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>true</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[Anyone in the Soft Sciences]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007</read_at>
  <date_added>Thu Nov 08 10:04:51 -0800 2007</date_added>
  <date_updated>Thu Nov 08 10:12:07 -0800 2007</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This is a great over view of probability and the fall out that it caused, both in the math and in the wider world. <br/><br/>What it is not too good at is presenting the math itself. The authors seem shy of laying out a formula with a description of what it means. This might just be the endemic fe...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/8838777">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/8838777]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="60718242">
    <user id="56479">
    <name><![CDATA[Res]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Peoria, IL]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/56479-res]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>0</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
        <shelf name="didnt-finish" />
        <shelf name="nonfiction" />
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Fri Jul 31 00:00:00 -0700 2009</read_at>
  <date_added>Mon Jun 22 19:35:03 -0700 2009</date_added>
  <date_updated>Fri Jul 31 11:58:24 -0700 2009</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This was engagingly written and very interesting, but the math defeated me. <br/><br/>In fact, I wonder whether they're expecting their audience to understand the math at all (if that's it, then they must be expecting only high school seniors and people smarter than me to read it) or whether they ...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/60718242">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/60718242]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="40165345">
    <user id="1805824">
    <name><![CDATA[Rohith]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/1805824-rohith]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>0</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Mon Dec 15 13:30:43 -0800 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Mon Dec 15 13:30:43 -0800 2008</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[An excellent book that explains probability in a way that I wish was explained to me in school. ]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/40165345]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="21405921">
    <user id="544124">
    <name><![CDATA[Russell]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Draper, UT]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/544124-russell]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>4</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Tue Apr 01 00:00:00 -0700 2008</read_at>
  <date_added>Thu May 01 11:47:39 -0700 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Thu May 01 11:48:07 -0700 2008</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[I really liked this book. This is the best book on the elusive yet quantifiable nature of Probability. The authors, a son and mother team, tie in history, vignettes of the personalities involved in progressing our understanding of this branch of knowledge. The book is jam packed with history, math, ...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/21405921">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/21405921]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="64696636">
    <user id="41583">
    <name><![CDATA[Becky]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Columbus, OH]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/41583-becky]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>0</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
        <shelf name="adultbooks" />
        <shelf name="math-tie-in" />
        <shelf name="nonfiction" />
        <shelf name="to-read" />
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Thu Jul 23 14:50:10 -0700 2009</date_added>
  <date_updated>Thu Jul 23 14:50:40 -0700 2009</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[Saw on Patrick's to-read list. ]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/64696636]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="6385061">
    <user id="386590">
    <name><![CDATA[Robert]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[The United States]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/386590-robert-w]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>3</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
        <shelf name="mathematicsandscience" />
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007</read_at>
  <date_added>Tue Sep 18 10:12:35 -0700 2007</date_added>
  <date_updated>Tue Sep 18 10:13:20 -0700 2007</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This is a popular science book about probability and statistics, and of those I’ve read (a few, because the subject interests me a lot), this is the best. It gives just enough history of the subject, explains the centrality of the subject in all modern sciences, and most important, explains variou...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6385061">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6385061]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="6967373">
    <user id="431881">
    <name><![CDATA[Dru]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Seattle, WA]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/431881-dru]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>3</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007</read_at>
  <date_added>Fri Sep 28 16:43:14 -0700 2007</date_added>
  <date_updated>Fri Sep 28 16:43:14 -0700 2007</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This book does a nice job of highlighting some of the ways probability effects the world around us. It mixes history, science, and a little bit of philosophy in order to show how different concepts of probabiliy and statistics developed and apply to different fields. The book kept my interest, but t...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6967373">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6967373]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="3127665">
    <user id="159880">
    <name><![CDATA[Mark]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[La Jolla, CA]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/159880-mark-chaisson]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>2</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
        <shelf name="nerdbooks" />
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Mon Jul 16 07:34:03 -0700 2007</date_added>
  <date_updated>Mon Jul 16 07:37:22 -0700 2007</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This was a random book that I picked up since, well, I'm a dork and I think stats are cool.  The book tries to combine a colorful explanation of statistics, with some interesting history and outcomes, but neither were done terribly well.  Also the book often lacks continuity, maybe because it was wr...<a href="http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3127665">more...</a>]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3127665]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="41392248">
    <user id="119228">
    <name><![CDATA[Kristen]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Brooklyn, NY]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/119228-kristen]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>5</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Tue Feb 03 00:00:00 -0800 2009</read_at>
  <date_added>Wed Dec 31 07:53:30 -0800 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Tue Feb 03 05:12:49 -0800 2009</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[This book is surprisingly deep, which further confirmed my decision that statistics is the right career for me :)]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/41392248]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="27825059">
    <user id="355929">
    <name><![CDATA[Alex]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Winnipeg, Canada]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/355929-alex]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>4</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Sun Jul 20 22:28:20 -0700 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Thu Dec 18 15:08:10 -0800 2008</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[Very interesting book if probability is something you are interested in... Looks at the history and applications of statistics and probability in many situations. I found it very interesting.]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/27825059]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="38152057">
    <user id="1693403">
    <name><![CDATA[Pedro]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[Brooklyn, NY]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/1693403-pedro]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>0</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Wed Nov 19 12:11:02 -0800 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Wed Nov 19 12:12:28 -0800 2008</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[I HATE THis book WHY DID I CHOOSE TIS. MY DID A MOTHER ANS A SON WRITE THIS TOGETHER . I HATE THIS BOOK SPO MUCH. ITS STUPID AND LOCO AHHHH!!!!!!]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/38152057]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="21968631">
    <user id="950094">
    <name><![CDATA[R]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[The United States]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/950094-r]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>4</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Fri Jun 20 09:51:22 -0700 2008</read_at>
  <date_added>Fri May 09 23:06:05 -0700 2008</date_added>
  <date_updated>Fri Jun 20 09:51:22 -0700 2008</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[Thematic essays on probability.  I was looking for a gentle refresher on a little bit more than the basics on probability, and was not disappointed.  ]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/21968631]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="10745333">
    <user id="702015">
    <name><![CDATA[Carolynn]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[South Orange, NJ]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/702015-carolynn]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>3</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at>Thu Nov 01 00:00:00 -0700 2007</read_at>
  <date_added>Thu Dec 20 07:32:06 -0800 2007</date_added>
  <date_updated>Thu Dec 20 07:37:36 -0800 2007</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[Great little mathematical history of the field of probability and statistics.  ]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/10745333]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="78892133">
    <user id="1455502">
    <name><![CDATA[Javier]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[San Francisco, CA]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/1455502-javier-bonnemaison]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>0</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
        <shelf name="currently-reading" />
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Tue Nov 24 15:33:50 -0800 2009</date_added>
  <date_updated>Tue Nov 24 16:08:15 -0800 2009</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/78892133]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="78772745">
    <user id="734126">
    <name><![CDATA[Ben]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[The United States]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/734126-ben-jones]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>5</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
  <sell_flag>false</sell_flag>
  <spoiler_flag>false</spoiler_flag>
  <shelves>
      </shelves>
  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
  <recommended_by><![CDATA[]]></recommended_by>
  <read_at></read_at>
  <date_added>Mon Nov 23 13:49:48 -0800 2009</date_added>
  <date_updated>Mon Nov 23 13:49:48 -0800 2009</date_updated>
  <read_count></read_count>
    <body><![CDATA[]]></body>
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/78772745]]></url>
</review>
    <review id="78297290">
    <user id="2282168">
    <name><![CDATA[David]]></name>
    <location><![CDATA[New York, NY]]></location>        
    <url><![CDATA[http://www.goodreads.com/user/show/2282168-david-bamford]]></url>
  </user>
      <rating>0</rating>
  <votes>0</votes>
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        <shelf name="to-read" />
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  <recommended_for><![CDATA[]]></recommended_for>
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